Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 곰 한 명은 항복, 또 다른 곰 한 명은 언제일지 모를 그날을 여전히 기다리는 중. Long time equity bear Mike Wilson has a mea culpa. "We were wrong," the Morgan Stanley strategist wrote. "2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic still thinks a selloff is coming thanks to a delayed impact from rate hikes and a "deeply troubling" geopolitical backdrop, but he doesn't know when.

On Wednesday, the Dow notched its eight straight winning session. The blue-chip gauge is now heading for its longest streak of daily gains since Sept. 20, 2017, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Generative AI demand rise is “directionally positive” for TSMC, CEO says. Whether you’re using custom-designed chips or off-the-shelf AI accelerators, the commonality among them is that they need advanced-node chipmaking.

Treasury yield curve bull-steepens as UK inflation data fall short of economist estimates, damping expectations of policy tightening by the BOE.

Tesla Investor Rode a 14,800% Gain Thanks to 27-Year-Old Analyst (Bloomberg) 테슬라, 혁신, 그리고 분석과 장기 투자를 다루고 있습니다. 관심 있으신 분들은 읽어보시길 권장합니다.

Bottom-line: Soft landing glide path? The US has a better chance of avoiding a recession in the next 12 months — 80% rather than 75% — after recent positive data on activity and inflation, Goldman's Jan Hatzius said. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic also sees improved odds of dodging a downturn.

JPMorgan shares are up 2.1%.

J.P.Morgan • 2Q Adj. Rev. $42.40B, Est. $39.34B • 2Q Investment Banking Rev. $1.49B, Est. $1.38B • 2Q ROE 20%, Est. 16.3% • 2Q Managed Net Interest Income $21.88B, Est. $21.17B • 2Q Cash & Due From Banks $26.06B, Est. $25.63B • 2Q Total Deposits $2.40T, Est. $2.44T • 2Q Standardized CET1 Ratio 13.8%, Est. 13.6% • 2Q Loans $1.30T, Est. $1.24T

Bottom-line: 달러 대비 여타 통화의 강세는 높은 물가에 대한 우려가 완화되고, 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리 예상 수준이 낮아짐에 따른 자연스러운 현상임. 다만, 달러 약세는 외환 시장 밖에도 영향을 주는데, i) 달러 약세로 인해 달러 표시 원자재의 상승에 환 효과로 기여하고, ii) 달러로 환산 한 수입품목가를 낮춰주는 효과 덕분에 미국 외 국가에서 수입수요를 키우고 경제 성장에 도움을 주며, iii) 현금성 투자상품에 몰려있는 미국 내 달러 자산이 미국 외 국가의 주식에 투자 할 유인을 제공함. 그러므로 대다수 투자자들은 지금의 달러 약세 추세가 이어지길 응원해야 할 것임. Weakness in the dollar continues to reverberate across markets, with everything from the pound through the yen tearing higher this week. And while it’s all just a natural consequence of easing inflation and a lower terminal rate in the US, it has very important implications for markets outside FX. First, dollar-priced commodities have rallied, with oil and gold benefitting from the pure currency effect of the change in the unit of measurement. Second, it lowers the cost of imports of dollar-based goods everywhere outside the US, stimulating demand and boosting growth. That growth comes with the added benefit of built-in lower inflation. And third, it encourages investors to pull money out of US money-market funds and put it to better use in international stocks. So, overall, the dollar really feels like the flipside of the everything rally, and just about everyone should cheer this bout of weakness.

Another sign of slowing US inflation.

Bank of Korea Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged at 3.50%.

Bottom-line: Welcome Relief. US inflation slid to the lowest in more than two years in June, signaling a potential turning point for the Fed. Headline CPI eased to 3% year on year — one-third of where it was a year ago — from 4%, while core prices decelerated to 4.8% from 5.3%. Both measures climbed 0.2% from May, below forecasts.

Bottom-line: 5% 미만에 머무르게 된 핵심 물가지표를 활용해 중앙은행의 정책금리를 실질금리로 환산 할 경우, 바이러스 대확산 이후 처음으로 양의 영역에 들어섬. Using core CPI, which dropped below 5%, the real fed fund rate has now turned positive for the first time in this cycle.

The Fed will take some comfort in the fact that core service CPI ex-housing housing has slowed below 4%.