Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 롤렉스, 파텍필립, 오데마피게로 대표되는 명품 시계의 연환산 투자수익률은 5년 간 20%에 달하며, 이는 동 기간 S&P 500 지수의 연환산 수익률 8%를 뛰어넘음. 독립 시계 브랜드들의 연환산 수익률 또한 15%에 달하며, 3대 브랜드의 경우 상징적인 롤렉스 데이토나, 파텍 노틸러스, 오데마피게 로얄 오크의 거래 가격이 2022년 1분기 이후 1/3 하락한 것을 반영했음. 물론, 2012년 이후 현재까지로 연환산 수익률을 계산하면 주식과 명품 시계는 각각 12%, 7%로 주식에 투자했을 때 수익률이 더 우세함. 이처럼 명품 시계의 투자수익률이 월등한 까닭에 와인, 예술품, 채권과 주식에 대한 대안투자로 강조하기도 함. Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches appreciated by an average of 20% a year since mid-2018, outpacing the S&P 500 Index, as values for pre-owned luxury timepieces surged, a new report shows. The S&P 500 stock index averaged annual returns of 8% from August 2018 to January 2023 while a basket of pre-owned watch models from top Swiss brands grew at more than twice the pace, the report from Boston Consulting Group Inc. and secondary market dealer WatchBox said. That’s despite prices of some pre-owned models, including Rolex Daytonas, Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oaks, declining by as much as a third since the market peaked in the first quarter of 2022. Prices for a basket of so-called independent brand watches including FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie and De Bethune — a small Swiss producer which is majority owned by WatchBox — returned 15% over the same period. The report touts luxury watches as an alternative asset class to stocks, bonds, art and wine. Over a longer period, stocks outperformed watches as an investment asset. The S&P 500 had a compound annual growth rate of 12% between 2012 and 2022, while Rolex, Patek and AP watches averaged 7%.

No Decision.

Key: Powell Says ‘No Decision’ Made on Speeding Up Pace of Rate Hikes. 🛌

Powell: “We are not on a preset path.”

Powell: 오늘 발표를 포함해 고용과 물가와 관련 된 중요한 지표들이 아직 남았다는 입장임. “We have some potentially important data coming out,” Powell says, noting the JOLTS report we just got, plus Friday’s jobs report and the CPI data coming out next week.

Powell: 금리인상 폭에 대해 결정 된 바가 없음. Powell stressed that there has been no decision made on the pace of rate hikes.

Layoffs ticked higher in January, driven mostly by an increase in “professional and business services” industries according to the JOLTS report.

Here’s the breakdown in the change in job vacancies in January.

Bottom-line: 성명서 자체는 어제와 같을 것임. His statement today will be identical to yesterday.

Powell has entered the room with McHenry and is taking his seat now.

Bottom-line: 주식시장이 지속적으로 타격을 받음에 따라 많은 투자자들이 회사채 시장으로 숨어들고 있음. EPFR에 따르면, 2017년 집계를 시작한 이후 최고 규모의 자금인 700억 달러가 투자등급 회사채 펀드에 유입되었음. 노무라증권의 애널리스트는 매우 짧은 만기의 단기채권이나 투자등급 회사채에 투자해 편히 잠을 잘 수 있는 시대에, 수 많은 데이터에 의해 변동을 겪는 주식에 몰두하겠냐고 반문했음. 그가 알기로 주식에 투자하는 펀드 매니저조차 현재 펀드의 25%~50% 비중을 이와 같은 우량 회사채에 투자해놓고 있는 경우도 있다 함. 이처럼 주식에 비우호적인 환경이 지속되자 단기 채권이나 투자등급 회사채를 대안으로 권유하는 경우가 점점 늘어나고 있음. As stock markets take another pummeling, more traders are hiding out in credit markets. They’re finding refuge in top-quality bonds, especially short-term securities. So far this year, global investment-grade credit funds have absorbed almost $70 billion, making it the biggest inflow for this part of the year since EPFR Global started tracking the data in 2017. “Why would you subject yourself to this very data dependent, binary, weekly equity environment with rates repricing, when you can sleep at night sitting in Treasury bills or short-duration investment-grade credit,” said Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities International. He offered his own anecdotal evidence, saying he knows equity fund managers that have stocked their portfolios with between 25% and 50% of short-term bonds from blue-chip companies. Against a backdrop of high inflation and a Federal Reserve determined to keep raising rates, asset allocators face the challenge of picking the least-bad option. Stocks have taken a beating recently, bond prices are under pressure from Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings and the value of cash is being eroded. “In the near-term, cash and investment-grade credit are the best way to be positioned,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Although it will not be a stellar performance.”

Keep calm and drink coffee. Starbucks, Dolce Cold Brew.

Market Reaction: 향후 발표 될 3~4개의 경제지표가 3월 금리 결정에 중요하단 말에 정해진 것은 아직 없다고 판단하며 안도함. Looks like stocks bounced just a little bit when Powell highlighted that the March policy decision has not been made, and that the upcoming data releases will play an important role.

🛌 Bye.

Powell: 중립금리의 수준은 바이러스 대확산과 기타 충격 이전에 이미 많이내려 온 상태며, 이 때문에 실업률이 심각할 정도로 증가할 필요는 없다고 답변함. Powell says the “neutral rate” dropped a lot before the pandemic and other shocks. “We don’t think we need a significant increase in unemployment,” he adds, and says they aren’t aiming for one, but he repeats that they do see need for some softening in labor markets.