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This analysis is a long-term prediction, which will take the rest of the spring and part of the summer. Furthermore, it does not take into account the development that may exist on other fronts, so the magnitude of Russian advances is difficult to calculate. However, it will not have the same relative ease as capturing Ocheretyne. The Ukrainian army is sending many reinforcements to this area to stop the Russian advances that will eventually slow down, in addition to the Ukrainian defenses built. Possibly we are talking about the Russian offensive horizon this year after which there will be a return to the Russian defensive posture in order to recover from wear and tear. On the other hand, the arrival of American aid would give a new boost to the Ukrainian army to prepare counteroffensives on several fronts and recover as much as possible from the losses suffered in recent months. However, the situation of its forces is worsening day after day, especially due to the troop problems that it is suffering and that the new mobilizations will have to solve if the Ukrainian government really wants to continue the conflict for several more years in optimal conditions.

These advances would leave the Ukrainian agglomerations of Toretsk, Niu-York & Scherbynivka in a kind of semi-encirclement in which only one supply route would remain. The capture of Chasov Yar in the following months by the Russian army (4) would leave the Ukrainian troops in a critical situation, at a time when Russian troops would surely begin to attack Niu-York (5) pushing them from the defense lines 2014.

Part 2: After Kalynove Russian advance will continue northwards reaching the town of Zoria (1). The natural barrier of the Kleban-Byk reservoir lake will prevent Russian troops from advancing further due to the danger that Ukrainian Army could easily bombard them from Kostiantynivka. The situation must be unblocked by advancing along the H-32 highway, located in the high area at the same time that the Russian forces consolidate and expand control over the highway crossing (2). This advance will possibly be the most complex given the extensive defenses that the Ukrainian command has been preparing there for months, since its capture would mean reaching the southwestern outskirts of Kostiantynivka (3).

Part 1: The Russian army will continue advancing westwards reaching Prohres (1), where it will maintain its positions. The capture of this town will allow control fire to be established on the Ukrainian troops located east of Karlivske Reservoir, which will hinder Ukrainian logistics in this area, which will withdraw as the Russians continue to advance along that axis (5). Simultaneously, Russian troops will advance along two major axes: - The first of them will target the road junction located on highway H-32, which connects Pokrovsk with Kostiantynivka (2). This will be a serious blow to the arrival of reinforcements and supplies to the second city as Pokrovsk is the epicenter of the Donbas, leaving only the road to Kramatorsk as the main logistical route. - The second of the advances will be towards the north, targeting the town of Kalynove (3), it is expected that these advances will allow the reopening of the H-20 highway axis taking the towns of Oleksandropil and Panteleymonivka (4)

The breach of the Ukrainian defenses in Ocheretyne has produced a situation of confusion in the Ukrainian command, which is unable to stop the Russian advance. The capture of Ocheretyne is very reminiscent of the capture of Popasna, which allowed the Russian army in 2022 to advance towards Bakhmut, Soledar and the bastions of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. What is expected after the capture of this new bastion by Russian forces? Around Ocheretyne there is a high area that runs along the railway and extends towards the north. Taking this and the latest advances in the area into account, we can predict that Russian advances would develop as follows:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chasov Yar. Enemy Footage confirms that our Boys have broken through in the southern part from the forest area to the canal.

🇺🇦🇵🇱🇪🇺ЕС должен принять решение о передаче Украине мужчин призывного возраста — министр обороны Польши Мы сегодня говорили об этом в Совете министров. Мы говорили, чтобы это было решение на европейском уровне. И я знаю, что переговоры между Киевом и Брюсселем на эту тему продолжаются, - заявил Косиняк-Камыш t.me/RVvoenkor

29,04,24 Часов Яр - канал Северский Донец-Донбасс Позиционные боевые действия на Артёмовском направлении. Передовые позиции ВС РФ на восточном берегу у перемычки канала Северский Донец-Донбасс под обстрелом с дрона ВСУ. Продвижение ВС РФ вдоль трассы на Константиновку составило около 2 км в западном направлении. 48.57325, 37.87176 Источник 21+ Геопривязка

😁 An inspection of the AFU defense installations in Zaporozhye showed that... Their scale turned out to be much smaller than the propagandists of the Kiev regime had imagined — Ukrainian corruption and showmanship played into Russian hands. The "dragon's teeth" used by Ukraine are half the size of Russia's for some reason. t.me/ukraine_watch

🪖Наши войска в эти минуты продвигаются в сторону Новоалександровки, с тяжелыми боями оттесняя врага. н.п Новокалиново перешел уже под контроль ВС РФ, в Керамике, пока еще идут бои, данные разнятся, но есть положительный результат, в районе Архангельского тоже продолжаются бои. Ситуацию осложняет БПЛА (камикадзе) ВСУ. Враг пытается удержать территории, ценой больших потерь. Парни с мест говорят, что это «Агония Донецкого фронта». Архангел Спецназа. Подписаться.