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• Indian Rupee Trend:
– Depreciated ~12% vs USD in 2025–26
– Normal annual depreciation trend: ~3–4%
• Exchange Rate Concept:
Determined by relative demand & supply of currencies (trade + capital flows).
•Current Account Deficit (CAD):
Occurs when imports > exports (goods + services).
• Capital Account Surplus/Deficit:
– Surplus: FDI/FPI inflows > outflows
– Deficit: capital outflows exceed inflows
•Twin Deficit Situation:
Simultaneous Current Account Deficit + Capital Account Deficit —> strong pressure on currency.
•Key Mechanism of Rupee Fall:
1. High import bill (esp. oil) —> CAD
2. Foreign investors pulling out —> capital account deficit
– Combined effect = rupee depreciation
•BoP (Balance of Payments):
– Sum of Current + Capital accounts
– Persistent deficit leads to forex reserve depletion
• Capital account can turn deficit even with FDI present
– because portfolio outflows (FPI) are volatile and larger in short term.
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