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๐Gold declines, but the bullish trend persists
The gold (XAU) price dropped by 0.61% on Friday after U.S. inflation aligned with market expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't take a more dovish approach to monetary policy.
๐ Possible effects for traders
Due to ongoing economic uncertainty exacerbated by trade tariffs and geopolitical instability, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to rise on Friday, pushing XAUUSD lower. 'I think the main element impacting the gold and silver markets is the profit-taking in week-long liquidation and the strong U.S. Dollar Index', said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.
At the same time, Wall Street's main stock indices continued to weaken as investors remained cautious over potential price pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. Losses in equities had an additional bearish impact on gold prices. Overall, XAUUSD had its first weekly loss since the end of December 2024. However, gold set a second consecutive monthly gain, boosted broadly by concerns over Trump's tariff plans.
XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures might force the Fed to reassess the projected monetary policy path and adopt a more dovish stance. If ISM PMI numbers are below the expected 50.6, XAUUSD may rally. Conversely, higher-than-expected results will lower the probability of an additional rate cut by the Fed and push XAUUSD lower. 'Spot gold may test resistance at $2,879 per ounce, a break above which could open the way toward $2,894 to $2,909 range', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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๐Euro lacks support due to dovish ECB and strengthening U.S. dollar
The euro (EUR) lost 0.21% on Friday against the U.S. dollar (USD) as the latter strengthened amid persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty related to Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
๐ Possible effects for traders
Investors' optimism on a potential peaัe settlement between Russia and Ukraine has been rising lately, exerting a minor bullish pressure on EURUSD. However, that optimism started to wane after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump had a heated discussion in the White House on Friday. 'It looked like we were moving towards progress on a peace deal or a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and maybe now that gets to come on hold, so you have to price in a little bit more uncertainty', said Jack Mcintyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global in Philadelphia. After falling for several months from a more than one-year high hit last September, the currency has shown signs of stabilising, partly due to hopes that peace could be reached. However, the latest developments have dashed hopes that it will happen soon.
At the same time, the fundamental pressure on EURUSD remains mostly bearish as investors still expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to be more dovish than the Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed officials have recently indicated they plan to hold rates steady until signs of a slowing economy and more clarity about the impact of trade tariffs on inflation. In contrast, ECB policymakers indicated during their previous meeting that the eurozone's interest rates were still restrictive, which suggests they remain eager to cut them further.
EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), due at 10:00 a.m. UTC. In addition, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index will come out at 3:00 p.m. UTC and likely trigger more volatility in all USD pairs. These data releases might enable EURUSD to escape its short-term trading range of 1.03595โ1.042300. A break above will open the way towards 1.048000, while a break below will allow bears to target new multi-week lows.
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๐Canadian dollar awaits new data on U.S. trade tariffs
The Canadian dollar (CAD) lost just 0.19% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday as investors assessed domestic data showing stronger-than-expected economic growth and awaited the potential implementation of U.S. trade tariffs.
๐ Possible effects for traders
Although USDCAD changed little on Friday, it was up as much as 1.69% for the week as traders priced in the likelihood of higher trade tariffs from the United States. Friday's data showed that Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.6% annually in Q4, surpassing expectations of a 1.8% increase, driven by a jump in consumer spending. However, the relatively strong U.S. inflation data and trade tariff threats pushed USDCAD slightly higher on Friday.
Meanwhile, Canadian officials were expected to meet with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and other senior Trump administration officials to forestall the tariffs. Canada seeks to show evidence of progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of a 4 March deadline for punishing 25% tariffs on their goods imports. 'Markets remain somewhat sceptical that, if it comes to it, 25% tariffs will be in place for long. The economic consequences for Canada from high tariffs are significant, but they are non-negligible for the U.S.', said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. If the Trump administration accepts the evidence and cancels the tariffs, USDCAD will likely drop sharply.
USDCAD was relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures might pause the rally in USDCAD and push the pair towards 1.44170. Conversely, higher-than-expected results may pull USDCAD towards recent highs near 1.44700.
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