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📊 Gold continues rising on economic and geopolitical uncertainty
The price of gold (XAU) rose slightly on Monday as uncertainty surrounding President Trump's trade tariffs continued to influence sentiment. The uncertainty further strengthened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns about the potential global trade war.
👉 Possible effects for traders
On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman stated officials need a stronger conviction that inflation would decline further before lowering interest rates again. The central bank needs more data, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Donald Trump administration's new trade and other policies. Since taking office, President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China, announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, set a date for 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, and considered reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tax U.S. imports. Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025, raising it from $2,890 to $3,100, citing the structural increase in central banks' demand as a factor.
In terms of geopolitics, European leaders gathered in Paris on Monday and unanimously agreed they were prepared to provide Ukraine with security assurances. However, an official from the E.U. cautioned that it would be risky to establish a ceasefire without a concurrent peace agreement. Meanwhile, Russian and American officials will discuss peace terms in Saudi Arabia this week.
During Asian and early European trading hours, XAUUSD continued its short-term rally, which started on Monday. There are no significant economic releases planned for today, but geopolitical events could add to the market volatility.
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📊 The euro receives mixed signals
The euro (EUR) oscillated within a confined range of 1.04700 to 1.05050 yesterday. The market remained tranquil on Monday due to the observance of President's Day in the U.S. and the relative lack of news before today's U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
👉 Possible effects for traders
A resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could lead to positive economic outcomes for Europe. According to Bruno Schneller, managing director of Erlen Capital Management, this could include increased consumer confidence, lower energy costs, and improved financial conditions. Following the suggestion that Europe wouldn't be involved in negotiations this week aimed at finding a resolution to the crisis in Saudi Arabia, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted an emergency summit on Ukraine on Monday. The U.K. has expressed willingness to send peacekeepers if an agreement is reached, while Russian and American officials will meet for peace talks in Saudi Arabia today.
Meanwhile, the potential for retaliatory U.S. trade tariffs has been temporarily deferred until April. However, the risk of additional tariffs based on value-added taxes in other countries continues to be a significant concern. According to the Financial Times, the European Commission indicated it may impose severe import restrictions on certain food products that fail to meet standards to protect its farmers. This decision is in line with President Trump's reciprocal trade policies.
EURUSD declined during Asian and early European trading hours, approaching the major support level of 1.04500. This week, many important economic indicators will be released, including preliminary data on business activity across the globe in February. Markets in Europe will also closely monitor the outcome of the German elections this weekend.
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📊 USDCAD grows amid trade tariffs uncertainty
On Monday, USDCAD increased slightly in the absence of news regarding potential tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canada. This week, investors will closely monitor developments in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the prospects for a potential peace agreement.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Markets were anticipating what U.S. President Donald Trump referred to as 'the major development' regarding reciprocal tariff measures. However, the announcement was ambiguous and postponed until early April, after the completion of studies, stated senior market analyst at Convera Canada ULC Michael Goshko. This has become a recurring pattern, with Trump's threats of tariffs often leading to an increase in stocks, bonds, and currency values. On Thursday, a directive issued by the president didn't impose additional tariffs but rather a process that may take weeks or months to examine duties imposed on American products by other trading partners and devise a response. Meanwhile, the price of oil, a major export for Canada, fell towards $74 per barrel as investors considered that the potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could boost global energy supplies.
USDCAD rose during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the Canadian Inflation Rate (CPI) report comes out at 1:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number may put bearish pressure on the pair, while a lower-than-expected figure will be bullish for USDCAD.
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📊 Gold plunges on announcement of Russia-Ukraine negotiations
On Friday, gold (XAU) declined by 1.5%, which is the largest daily decline since the beginning of 2025. The price had already tested the $2,940 level twice but failed to break through it. This could indicate a potential correction after a rapid growth.
👉 Possible effects for traders
On Monday, XAUUSD rose amid a weak U.S. dollar (USD) as market participants await further details regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariff measures, which could heighten global trade tensions. Additionally, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data added to the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The weakened U.S. dollar and uncertainties in relations between the U.S. and its major trading partners have contributed to gold's strength.
Meanwhile, markets anticipate that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon end, as representatives from the Trump administration will begin peace talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia in the near future. If prospects for peace increase, demand for safe-haven assets may decline. Nevertheless, as long as concerns regarding tariffs and inflation persist, the gold price may continue its upward trend.
The market will be relatively calm today, without any important releases. XAUUSD received support and may now attempt to rebound from $2,880. However, a scenario where the price continues to correct downward toward $2,840 seems more likely.
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5 952
📊 Two strong fundamental factors drive up the euro
On Friday, the euro (EUR) increased by approximately 0.25%, bringing the price closer to the 1.05000 resistance level. The pair failed to break this level at the end of January, but EURUSD may break above it following last week's strong bullish trend.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Currently, two significant fundamental factors are driving the EURUSD upwards. Firstly, there has been a delay in implementing U.S. trade tariffs. The delay in tariffs has decreased market concerns regarding a potential rise in worldwide inflation. Donald Trump appears to use tariffs as a means of negotiation rather than an economic tool. So far, he has imposed only a 10% tariff on China out of all the promised duties. The decrease in inflation expectations weakened the U.S. dollar (USD), supporting other major currencies, particularly the euro and the British pound.
Secondly, there is hope for peaceful negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, boosting optimism about the European economy. Traders are buying the euro and pound as part of a 'double victory' strategy, hoping that peace in Ukraine will strengthen confidence in the European economic outlook. Excessive optimism following the U.S. election is fading, weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the long-term sustainability of the euro recovery remains uncertain as threats of Trump's tariffs and complex peace negotiations continue. Trump has threatened to announce new car tariffs on 2 April, increasing pressure on U.S. trading partners, particularly the eurozone. In addition, upcoming early elections in Germany may also affect the euro.
The resistance level at 1.05000 is significant. A rebound is expected from this level, followed by a possible return to 1.04500. If EURUSD manages to break above the resistance, it may rise towards 1.06000 or higher.
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📊 AUDUSD awaits the RBA interest rate decision
The Australian dollar (AUD) finished Friday essentially unchanged against the U.S. dollar (USD) but dropped by more than 1.5% on Monday morning, reaching a multi-year low.
👉 Possible effects for traders
This week will be eventful for AUD traders as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet on Tuesday. More than 90% of economists surveyed by Reuters believe that the regulator will lower the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it towards 4.1%. However, some analysts argue that the decision should be more balanced. 'Our base case, a neutral-to-hawkish cut, is one where policy easing comes with minimal forward guidance', said Lachlan Dinan, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. If the interest rate remains unchanged, it could lead to a 1% increase in AUDUSD. Apart from the decision, traders should focus on the following press conference and officials' comments about the direction of monetary policy in the near future.
During today's U.S. trading session, the currency pair may test the nearest resistance level at 0.64000 and attempt to break above it. The RBA will announce the decision on 18 February at 3:30 a.m. UTC, with the press conference beginning at 4:30 a.m. UTC. Additionally, Australia will release several economic reports throughout the week, including payroll data on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday.
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