Technical My Tips

📊 Coalition uncertainty weighs on euro The euro (EUR) gained 0.08% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday but failed to hold above the important 1.05000 level. 👉 Possible effects for traders Initially, EURUSD received a major boost after the opposition conservative party won the national election on Sunday. However, the market shifted its focus from the election victory to how quickly a coalition government can be formed. Protracted talks may raise concerns about future economic policy and fiscal stability in the eurozone, which could weaken the euro and exert downward pressure on EURUSD. 'The policy implications are twofold — one is the debt break in Germany. Europe realises that they have to step up their defence spending, and it seems like the best way to do that is through a collective bond offering', said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Despite a major political shift in the eurozone's largest economy, its deep-seated economic problems persist. Data on Monday showed that business morale in Germany unexpectedly stagnated in February. The Ifo Institute said its business climate index remained flat at 85.2 after slightly revising January's data. EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should watch the release of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected results will likely increase the bearish pressure on EURUSD, potentially pushing it below 1.04250. Conversely, lower-than-expected numbers may pull the pair higher, towards 1.05080. Also, speeches from two Federal Reserve officials at 4:45 p.m. UTC and 6:00 p.m. UTC may add to the volatility. Traders will monitor any potential shifts in their cautious rate-cut stance. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Tariff fears weigh on AUD as global recession concerns rise On Monday, the Australian dollar (AUD) lost 0.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) as safe-haven flows into the greenback increased after U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada would proceed as planned. 👉 Possible effects for traders Trump said that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are proceeding as planned for the 4 March deadline, despite the countries' attempts to strengthen border security and curb fentanyl trafficking. There were hopes that the U.S.'s top two trading partners could convince the Trump administration to postpone tariffs impacting over $918 billion worth of imports, but this isn't happening. Higher tariffs threaten to destabilise global trade and potentially trigger a global recession. As a highly risk-sensitive currency, AUD suffers due to the increased uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and the potential slowdown of Australia's export-driven economy. At the same time, AUDUSD received minor support after the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) annual policy statement revealed a comprehensive strategy to advance rural reforms and support real-estate development. If realised, the strategy may help stimulate Chinese economic growth, which could bolster demand for Australian commodities and lift AUDUSD. AUDUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's main focus is the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index, due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. However, AUD pairs may be more affected by the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow at 12:30 a.m. UTC. The market expects weighted CPI to remain at 2.5%. Higher-than-expected results may lower the chances of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May, providing a bullish impact on AUDUSD. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures will almost certainly secure a rate cut in May and may push AUDUSD below 0.63190. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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#economic_calendar This event may affect the market on 25 February.

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📊 Strong safe-haven demand supports gold price The gold (XAU) price remained relatively unchanged on Friday and continued to hover near all-time highs, driven by strong safe-haven demand. 👉 Possible effects for traders XAUUSD rose by over 11% in 2025 as global economic and political uncertainties have intensified investors' appetite for gold, pushing prices to record highs above $2,950. Specifically, concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans have weighed heavily on market sentiment, sparking fears of a potential global trade war and a subsequent economic slowdown. These tariff concerns and persistent geopolitical tensions in key regions have created a climate of heightened risk aversion. 'Demand for gold is currently being driven primarily by western investors and central banks. ETF investors appear to be jumping on the bandwagon', Commerzbank analysts said in a note. Trump's newly announced tariff plans, revealed this week, broaden the scope of existing duties to include lumber and forest products, adding to previously declared tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 'Gold's safe-haven role is not fully realised yet as the shift from riskier assets to safer ones is not significant, with money still on the sidelines', said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold. XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so the likelihood of big moves is relatively low. This week's main focus is on the U.S. publications: CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Additionally, investors should monitor the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Any progress there may be treated as a sign of reduced geopolitical risk, potentially dampening safe-haven demand for gold and leading to a temporary pullback. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 EURUSD starts to recover after a long downtrend The euro (EUR) lost 0.4% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday as investors consolidated positions ahead of the weekend and monitored more tariff announcements. 👉 Possible effects for traders EURUSD has been recovering for the past month. After setting a multi-month low on 13 January, the pair has risen above the critical 1.04150 level and remains above the 25-day moving average. This recovery can be attributed to several factors, including a shift in market sentiment regarding the potential divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Indeed, the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the two central banks has been priced in well in advance. Furthermore, while still showing some signs of weakness, eurozone economic data wasn't as bleak as some analysts had feared. This contributed to a renewed confidence in the euro. EURUSD was rising strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is uneventful. However, several relatively minor eurozone macroeconomic reports may stoke some volatility in EUR pairs. Investors should follow the final Consumer Price Index data at 10:00 a.m. UTC and the German Bundesbank monthly report at 12:00 p.m. UTC. A break above 1.05264 would open the way towards 1.05474, while a drop below 1.05050 would enable bears to target 1.04910. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Canadian dollar weakens due to U.S. dollar's rebound The Canadian dollar (CAD) lost 0.32% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday, primarily due to a technical rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). 👉 Possible effects for traders The greenback is undergoing a technical rebound after suffering a sustained sell-off in recent weeks, and other currencies are also seeing risk discounts come back as trade worries return', said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. An additional factor contributing to CAD's recent weakness is the Bank of Canada's (BOC) stance on interest rates. On Friday, BOC gave a clear signal that it would cut interest rates to support the economy in case of a trade war with the U.S. Provided the inflationary impact of tariffs is not too big, monetary policy can help smooth the (economy's) adjustment by supporting demand so it doesn't weaken too much more than supply', said Tiff Macklem, BOC Governor. 'Governor Macklem is finally saying the quiet part out loud. After having been non-committal about the likely monetary policy response to U.S. tariffs, he's now being clearer that the central bank would likely cut rates more than it would have otherwise if a trade war erupts,' said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins. According to Reuters, investors see a 43% chance of a March rate cut by the BoC, up from 33% before Macklem's speech. USDCAD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is uneventful, so the likelihood of big moves in CAD pairs is relatively low. However, Statistics Canada will release its latest report on corporate profits at 1:30 p.m. UTC, which may lead to above-normal volatility. Key levels to watch are support at 1.41749 and resistance at 1.42052. Sign Up Now ➡️https://bit.ly/attocta Partner Code ➡️ 3788810