infinityhedge

FOMC STATEMENT FED REITERATES SEEKING 'TIMELY RETURN' TO 2% INFLATION GOAL

FED: COOK AND HAMMACK DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED

Anthropic ($ANT): S-1 Breakdown: INFINITYHEDGE - Val Floor: ~$1T (Series H priced @ $58.90/sh in June 2026; ~16.94B fully diluted shares) - Balance Sheet Cash (Jun 30, 2026): $131.65B cash & marketable securities (+$2.5B restricted cash & $15B senior secured credit line) - 7 co-founders each worth $14B control >55% effective voting power (50.1% Class F shares) - >11,900 customers spending >$100K/yr TTM - >1,900 customers spending >$1M/yr TTM | ~250 customers spending >$10M/yr TTM. - >90% of contributions to Ant’s codebase in Sep 2026 were written by Claude ⚠️ Risks & Dilution: - Public Benefit: Contributed 846.84M Class N shares (5% of fully diluted stock) to Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, LLC, PLUS Board authorization to issue up to an additional 2% of total shares every time the stock price +50% above the prior milestone: infinityhedge - All 7 co-founders also pledged 80% of personal equity to philanthropy. - Ant warn it will prioritize safety over commercial timelines.

THE WEEK AHEAD: BIGGEST WEEK OF THE QUARTER: INFINITYHEDGE Mon: * Anthropic to publicly file its S-1 investor prospectus [expected on mon or friday] * China: Fifth plenary session of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee begins in Beijing. It continues until Thu. * Top officials from Saudi Arabia [Defence Minister], Turkey and Pakistan are to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran: This meeting is intended to start negotiations for the purpose of achieving a mechanism for security per iran FM spox Tue: * Israel election: Israelis head to the polls for the first parliamentary elections since the catastrophe of Hamas’s Oct 7 2023 attack. Many in the country regard this vote as the most important in Israel’s near 80y history. polls suggest that victory improbable for either side. * Earnings: Robinhood, SK Hynix Wed: * UK: Budget day * BOC: interest rate announcement: expected to raise rates * FED: interest rate announcement: expected to wait until the midterm elections next month (another pivot point) before raising rates again * Apple holds a “Pro & tell” product launch event, with new Macs & an iPad mini expected * Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft [focus on capex] Thu: * EU: interest rate announcement: No change expected * US: PCE [hot], Q3 GDP advance estimate * Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Merck, Eli Lilly, Reddit, Sandisk, Samsung, Shell, Coinbase, Blue Owl Fri: * Japan: interest rate announcement [No change expected], plus outlook report * Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone Q3 GDP * US: Q3 employment cost index * Earnings: AstraZeneca, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil Sun: US: Daylight Saving Time ends TBA/Whole Week: - Wars: Iran, Houthis, Ukraine: recent Houthi attacks on Saudi infra pushed Brent to ~$116–117 (highest since Apr). Oil has eased a bit after Trump comments ruling out imminent Iran strikes and Tehran meeting w/ Mecca Pact countries, is the key de-escalation to watch but risk premium remains high after midterms. Ukraine continues in the bg: infinity hedge - AI: Anthropic S-1, Fable 5.5?, capex, hacks, Neoclouds vs Musk - US midterm elections: Republicans are expected to lose both house and the Senate Views: - "I ⁠think earnings will determine whether this ... tech pullback is a buying opportunity, or is there a deeper correction ahead,": Lip of BakerAvenue Wealth Management. - "There are a lot of balls in the air,": Giorgi of Alpine Macro.

YIELDS ARE GOING PARABOLIC U.S. 10Y YIELD HITS 5.34%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002 U.S. 30Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 5.68%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002 UK 30-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 6% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 1998 JAPAN 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3.1%, HIGHEST SINCE 1996 FRANCE 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.9%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002 GERMANY 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3.6%, HIGHEST SINCE 2009: INFINITYHEDGE BRENT OIL ABOVE $100/BBL

SEVEN REPUBLICANS COSPONSORED AMENDMENT GIVING BANKS MAJOR WIN ON STABLECOIN YIELD, COMPLICATING CLARITY ACT 60 VOTE MATH, ACCORDING TO AN AMENDMENT QUIETLY FILED ON THE CLARITY ACT LAST WEEK: PUNCHBOWL

HYPERLIQUID SURPASSES NASDAQ AND LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE IN MARKET VALUATION - INFINITYHEDGE

It's time? (Trump: "Fed making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.........So far, I’m not even a little bit happy with my selection of (warsh). Not even a little bit. And I’m not blaming anybody, but I’m just....)

FED DOT PLOT

FOMC STATEMENT

FED: UNANIMOUS 12-0 VOTE ON POLICY ACTION FED: DROPS REFERENCE TO SUPPLY SHOCKS DRIVING INFLATION FED: NOW SAYS POLICY ACTION WILL SUPPORT TIMELIER RETURN TO 2 PERCENT GOAL FED: REPLACES MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WITH GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

FED RAISES INTEREST RATE

* U.S. SENATE CLOTURE VOTE ON THE CLARITY ACT FAILS : INFINITYHEDGE

CRYPTO 'CLARITY ACT' ODDS DROPS BELOW 10% ON POLYMARKET FOR THE FIRST TIME: INFINITYHEDGE

DEMOCRATS CLARITY ACT COUNTER-OFFER REJECTED BY REPUBLICANS: PUNCHBOWL

BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS US10Y YIELDS RISE ABOVE 5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007 US30Y YIELDS ABOVE 5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2004 JAPAN 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3%, HIGHEST SINCE 1996 UK10Y YIELDS RISE ABOVE 5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007 FRANCE 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 GERMANY 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2009: INFINITYHEDGE

US 30-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 5.39%, HIGHEST SINCE 2004

US AUG CPI RISES 0.4% M/M (EST. +0.4%) US AUG CPI RISES 3.4% Y/Y (EST. +3.4%) US AUG CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M (EST. +0.2%) US AUG CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y (EST. +2.4%)