Glassnode

Glassnode's Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Short is designed to identify prime shorting opportunities with high conviction. It can be used for direct short positions on Bitcoin and to reduce long-only exposure, minimizing downside risk during high-risk periods. Benefits: - High-Confidence Short Opportunities: Identify market downturns using our machine-learning model and on-chain data. - Risk Management for Long-Only Investors: Effectively manage Bitcoin's high volatility and avoid significant drawdowns. - Strategic Hedging: Suitable for both direct short positions and reducing long-only exposure. For the full analysis, read our insights article: https://glassno.de/3ztvNUk

The Week On-Chain 26, 2024 As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the recent ATH, we investigate the Long and Short-Term cohorts contribution to the supply and demand side. We also leverage the new breakdown metrics to evaluate the spending behavior and market influence of differing subsets of Long-Term investors. Executive Summary - The market has effectively traded sideways since the $73k all-time-high which was set in March. By our estimates, demand momentum has turned negative since early May. - We analyse the cost-basis of short-term investors as a method to inspect capital flows into the market. - Looking at the spending behaviour of long-term holders, it can be seen that although the spent volume by these players constitutes only 4%-8% of the total volume, the profits realized from this spending typically account for 30%-40% of cumulative profits realized over bull markets. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Despite healthy investor profitability, the magnitude of volume being processed and transferred on the Bitcoin Network following the ATH has declined drastically. This underscores a reduced appetite for speculation and heightened indecision in the market. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇 https://glassno.de/3RCgSxp

The Week On-Chain 25, 2025 Despite choppy price action, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin investors remains constructive. However, volumes across all market facets are declining markedly as an equilibrium between demand and sell-side forces is established. Executive Summary - Despite chaotic price action, investor profitability remains robust, with the average coin holding an unrealized profit of around 120%. - The demand side has been sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure and HODLer divestment but insufficient to promote further upward growth. - The cash-and-carry trade continues, with a particular uptick by institutional traders, reinforcing an expectation of range-bound trading for the time being. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Coinbase as an entity holds a vast fraction of both aggregate exchange balances, as well the US Spot ETF balances via its custody service. The Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Custody entities currently hold an estimated 270k and 569k BTC respectively. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇 https://glassno.de/3RnjM93

The aggregated balance of all major labelled entities is estimated to be ~4.23M, which accounts for 27% of the overall adjusted circulating supply (which is the total supply minus coins that have remained dormant for more than seven years). 🟡 US Spot ETF = 862k BTC 🔴 Mt. Gox Trustee = 141k BTC 🔵 US Government = 207k BTC 🟠 All Exchanges = 2.3M BTC 🟢 Miners (Exc. Patoshi) = 706k BTC Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇 https://glassno.de/3RnjM93

The Week On-Chain 24, 2024 Despite impressive US ETF inflows, a market-neutral Cash-and-Carry trade appears to be subduing buy-side pressure, requiring non-arbitrage demand to further stimulate price action. Alongside this, we explore the divergence between declining active addresses and surging transaction counts. Executive Summary - In the advent of the Runes protocol, a counterintuitive divergence has formed between declining active addresses and increasing transaction counts. - Major labelled entities now hold a staggering ~4.23M BTC, accounting for over 27% of the adjusted supply, with US Spot ETFs now commanding a balance of 862k BTC. - The Cash-and-Carry trade structure appears to be a meaningful source of ETF inflow demand, with the ETFs being utilized as the instrument for obtaining the long spot exposure, whilst an increasingly large net short position for Bitcoin accrues in the CME Group futures market. Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

In the newest release from our checklist series, we focus on recognizing important stages of bull markets—ideal for optimizing exit strategies. Utilizing our innovative suite of on-chain metrics, this checklist equips traders with the tools necessary to navigate through and capitalize on euphoric market phases. To learn more, download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/4caTI9i

Assessing for Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, we can see that the total volume of LTH Supply held in loss is negligible, with only 4.9k BTC (0.03% of LTH Supply) acquired above the spot price. Given new ATHs were only set in March (less than 155-days ago), these LTH coins in loss are the small few holders who bought the 2021 cycle top, and have held ever since. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇 glassno.de/3VbNYW0

Whilst both inflowing liquidity and appetite for speculation have slowed down over the last 2 months, the reclamation of the $68k level has driven a majority of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder cohort back into holding an unrealized profit. This indicates that despite recent sideways choppy price action, the majority of recent buyers now have a cost basis which is more favourable and below the current spot price. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇 https://glassno.de/3VbNYW0