Normans Adventures in Inflation

This is a chart of the Argentine Peso. Blue is the actual exchange rate you get from the money changers on the street. Cyan is the offical exchange rate. Orange is the exchange you get on the international money markets. Firstly, notice that once the chart hits a tipping point (mid-2022 in this chart) it starts to go parabolic, this is the point of no return, once this occurs your currency is going to die and no one is saving it. Secondly, notice that the real exchange rates (blue and orange) are not smooth lines. They oscillate wildly. During a hyperinflation you will be in a constant dance between “it’s so over” and “we’re so back”. Of course, if you zoom out this is irrelevant, but if you’re living the day to day, these wild swings matter and you do feel it. Brace yourselves, today it’s Argentina, tomorrow it’s your neck of the woods.

I was thinking about Income Tax today (as you do) and I realised that Income Tax is literally paying the government for permission to go to work. You only pay it if you work, like a Toll you only pay when you drive on a particular road. It’s weird, governments often tax things to disincentivise people doing certain things (eg. Tobacco, Alcohol, Carbon and Sugar taxes). The implication therefore is that governments don’t want you to work, because the harder you work, the more tax you pay. No work, no income tax. I’ll have to sleep on this idea.

https://mansworldmag.online/the-populist-moment-never-happened/ “The matter of how economic populism and leftism always betrays real nationalism is very interesting, and must be explored in detail; but its failure to deliver specifically its economic promises is the real and big reason for Milei’s rise at the moment in Argentina. Decades of “getting everything the American dissident sphere is now asking for” has left Argentina a nation competing with Venezuela when, given its natural endowments as well as its human capital, it should be competing with the United States. There’s no better example in the modern world of a case where specifically bad government and bad culture has so wrecked a country that otherwise does have both the natural resources and the biological human capital to be not only nice but truly great. Unlike East Europe or other parts of Europe, Argentina has no excuses: no Russian or other occupation, not even any wars; no natural disasters. Paradisiacal climate and isolation; temperate climate, free from disease. A cultured, highly literate intelligent population. All wrecked by bad political decisions, a terrible political culture, maybe bad elements of culture in general.”

Just a reminder that inflation is a relative measure (This is Argentina)

Re: Rolex Prices as a leading indicator of an economic downturn. “When it goes down to retail price & one can purchase a Rolex watch from a Rolex store, then it means the global depression has arrived”

Inflation Survival Tip: Gorilla Chow is cheaper than Human Food

🇦🇷 Argentine interannual inflation rate: August, 2021: 51% August, 2022: 78% August, 2023: 124% And it's a given that it's going to explode post elections and probably hit 200+%

https://x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1702442099814342725?s=46 Tucker interview with Argentine Libertarian Presidential Candidate Javier Milei

Catabolic collapse and ecological collapse are real and happening right now. Such as these past 3 years. Resource depletion such as oil (see john michael Greer) and over reliance on technology for basic tasks ( see Ted k), which leads to being reliant on more complex supply chains, will cause a breakdown. We are already seeing these things before our eyes. Get prepared, start networking, start making yourself resilient to at least one supply chain item this year, and go from there. One step at a time cause buckle up. We are in this for the long haul.