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Kanal postlari
🚀 Pathfinder continues to outperform the US market.
June delivered another strong result, posting a +6% gain, while the major US equity indices closed the month in negative territory.
📈 Pathfinder's total return for 2026 is now above +38%, confirming the strength of our quantitative selection model in identifying market leadership.
📌 Top 5 Picks for July
🏦 Citigroup
🏦 Goldman Sachs
💻 Intel
💾 Micron Technology
🏦 Morgan Stanley
A portfolio focused on sectors and companies showing the strongest combination of relative strength, trend, and quantitative ranking.
Stay tuned for the July update! 📊
| 2 |  📊 +15% IN LESS THAN ONE MONTH
The Cicli & Mercati Megatrend Portfolio was designed with a clear objective:
identify the strongest structural trends across global markets through a disciplined quantitative process.
Every month, our models analyze a universe of more than 40 Megatrend ETFs, selecting only the instruments with the best strength and Reward/Risk characteristics.
📈 Since the beginning of May, the model’s allocations have delivered very strong performances:
* AIAI +20.57%
* ECAR +20.52%
* WTAI +18.93%
* SMH +17.52%
* RBOT +10.32%
⚙️ HOW THE PROCESS WORKS
1️⃣ Our proprietary models continuously scan global markets.
2️⃣ The 5 ETFs with the highest Reward/Risk Rating are selected.
3️⃣ Portfolio components are updated every month.
4️⃣ Changes are communicated to subscribers at month-end.
📌 A systematic and disciplined approach built to capture the market’s strongest megatrends while controlling portfolio concentration and risk dynamics.
🧮 Find out more at Cicli & Mercati | 632 |
| 3 |  📊 CONSUMER SENTIMENT AT HISTORICAL LOWS
The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) measures the level of confidence US consumers have in the economy.
Today, the index stands near its lowest levels in 60 years.
Historically, every sharp deterioration in sentiment has coincided with recessionary phases in the US economy, highlighted in the chart by the NBER grey areas.
🔎 However, in recent years, a very important divergence has emerged:
📉 consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply
📈 financial markets have remained resilient
⚠️ This now opens the door to two possible macro interpretations.
1️⃣ More cautious and less confident consumers could translate into weaker spending and slower growth.
2️⃣ If sentiment stabilises, the divergence could close through a further bullish phase in the market.
💡 Today, the market is facing one of the most significant macro divergences of the past few decades.
🎓 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 638 |
| 4 |  📡 EXPLORER is Cicli&Mercati’s proprietary tool designed to monitor more than 1,000 financial instruments every day, including equities, ETFs, bonds, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and indices.
👉 A quantitative network that collects, organizes, and decodes in real time the signals generated by our proprietary models.
It integrates:
➡️ Forecaster → quantitative patterns and statistical probabilities
➡️ Heisenberg → trend structure and pressure
➡️ Trigger → momentum shifts
➡️ RRR → risk/opportunity assessment
🔎 Explorer allows users to:
– quickly assess the operational context of an asset
– monitor market trends and scenarios
– identify relevant quantitative events in real time
⚖️ One environment.
All markets.
One quantitative language.
🎓 Try the demo on Cicli&Mercati | 739 |
| 5 |  📊 Forecaster is our proprietary cyclical pattern-recognition algorithm.
It analyses historical market behaviour across multiple timeframes (Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly) to identify patterns already occurred in the past and assesses their probability, expected development, and risk/reward profile.
👉 Because trend prevails over cycles.
But cycles help assess their quality, maturity, and statistical reliability.
🔎 Applied to the S&P 500, the model continues to show a constructive structure.
➡️ Strategic setup: NEUTRAL POSITIVE
Entry Level: 7234.54
Win/loss ratio: 68/32
➡️ Tactical setup: FAVORABLE
Entry Level: 7152.72
Win/loss ratio: 77/23
Both configurations show strong statistical value, having occurred multiple times since 1928.
⚠️ However, the most probable subsequent combinations are beginning to lose cyclical quality.
👉 The trend remains dominant, but within a less linear and more selective environment than in previous months.
🧮 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 857 |
| 6 |  📊 US Selection: quantitative strategy focused on the US market
An aggressive model that selects each month the 5 stocks with the strongest profitability profile among the 55 most liquid companies in the US market.
👉 No discretion involved.
Only algorithms, quantitative rankings, and systematic rotation.
🔎 Model characteristics
➡️ 100% US equity exposure
➡️ Concentrated portfolio (5 stocks)
➡️ Monthly rebalancing
➡️ Focus on momentum and relative strength
📈 Since 2012, the model has delivered:
+945% cumulative return
~17.8% annualized return
+103% over the last 36 months
👉 Results consistent with a high-volatility approach fully exposed to the market.
💡 Current allocation
AMD
Amazon
Intel
Taiwan Semiconductor
Texas Instruments
➡️ A clear snapshot of where the model currently identifies the highest relative quality.
⚖️ In other words:
* it does not replicate the S&P 500,
* it aims to identify the areas of the US market where the trend remains strongest.
🧮 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 717 |
| 7 |  📊 C-Wave Monthly: a less synchronized market
The cyclical structure shows an almost perfect balance between constructive momentum and internal deterioration.
🔎 ADVANCING (37.5%)
Nikkei, MSCI World, Nasdaq, Emerging Markets and commodities remain in the expansion phase of the curve.
➡️ The risk-on component is still present
⚠️ DOWN (37.5%)
Gold, Europe, China, EUR/USD and US Treasuries are instead concentrated in the Down phase.
👉 Internal dispersion and loss of cyclical quality continue to increase
🛡 UP (12.5%)
The Dollar Index and Bunds are starting to reflect a gradual defensive rotation.
📉 TERMINATING (12.5%)
Bitcoin and BTPs are positioned in the final stage of the curve, showing a more fragile structure.
💡 Operational insight
The picture does not yet signal a fully synchronized bearish reversal, but rather an increasingly evident transition phase:
➡️ less broad-based leadership
➡️ greater divergence across assets
➡️ increased selectivity required
🧮 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 780 |
| 8 |  📉 Buy on Dips: a matter of structure, not price
An uptrend is, by definition, non-linear: it alternates between expansion phases and pullbacks.
But it is during pullbacks that complexity emerges:
➡️ trend continuation
or
➡️ the beginning of a distribution phase
⚠️ The critical point
A decline can be:
* a simple, healthy pause
* structural deterioration
Without a framework, the distinction is purely discretionary
📊 Cicli&Mercati approach
Buy on Dips signals are derived from a multi-layered system:
Trigger → captures early anomalies in price action
Heisenberg → measures the exhaustion of selling pressure
C-Wave → identifies shifts in the cyclical structure
👉 Not standalone indicators, but a coherent sequence
💡 Operational insight
The signal does not coincide with the bottom, but with the moment the market changes behavior
⚖️ In other words:
you don’t buy the dip, you buy when the dip stops being one
🧮 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 741 |
| 9 |  📊 STOXX 600 Sector ETFs – RRR Overview
This analysis, based on proprietary rating models, highlights where capital is currently flowing
👉 Clear leadership
• Energy
• Utilities
• Telecom
These sectors offer the most attractive reward/risk profiles and represent the areas where capital flows are concentrated
👉 Mid-range
• Basic Materials
• Banks
More balanced setups, but worth monitoring, especially in case of improving ratings
👉 Structural weakness
• Consumer Staples
• Healthcare
• Consumer Discretionary
The picture here remains weak, with signs of outflows and relative underperformance
💡 Operational takeaway
• Focus on the strongest assets
• With high or improving ratings
• Already supported by solid performance momentum
👉 For new entries or short-term positioning, the focus should remain on sectors in leadership or showing signs of strengthening
🧮 Find out more at Cicli&Mercati | 911 |
