Mechanism Capital

🪪 Trump has unveiled a new US passport.

History repeating itself ❔

🏌 Starting January 1, 2027, every digital asset operation (trading, transfers, custody, and wallet services) will be subject to a 0.2% fee. The crypto industry has strongly criticized the law, calling it the harshest digital asset tax in the country. Companies warn that the new rules could push crypto businesses to relocate to other states. The tax is expected to generate around $60M per year for the state budget. Pro-crypto Trump, results 🤷‍♂️ 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

⌛ (3:00 PM UTC) With nearly 100% probability, the rate will be left unchanged (PAUSE). 🗞 Reuters: - The base forecast is that the rate will remain unchanged. - Most Fed members are projected not to expect a rate cut until the end of 2026. - A more hawkish shift is possible - some members may even factor in a rate hike due to persistent inflation . - The key risk is that inflation has accelerated again due to the energy shock and a strong labor market, so arguments for a cut have almost disappeared. 🗞 WSJ: - A pause on rates is expected. - For markets, the tone of Kevin Warsh and the Fed's new communication will matter more than the rate decision itself . 🗞 FT: - Economists are increasingly expecting that the Fed's next move could be a hike, not a cut, by the end of 2026 . - The main reason is that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, and the energy factor following the conflict with Iran has already intensified price pressures. 🗞 Goldman Sachs: - The bank no longer expects a rate cut in 2026 . - New forecast: first cuts only in June and December 2027. - A rate hike is unlikely, but the risk of such a scenario has increased. 🗞 Bank of America: - The Fed will keep rates unchanged until the end of 2026 - The bank allows that at least three voting members may pencil in a rate hike this year . 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

👶 Claude Code now temporarily blocks accounts suspected of being used by minors and requires age verification to restore access . 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG ❤️ | @mechcapital

❤️😤 BTC Under Pressure BTC traded heavy into 3 June, down around 11.6% on the week and unable to reclaim key momentum levels. The selloff was amplified by a rare Strategy BTC sale headline 🪙, after the company disclosed it sold 32 BTC in late May to fund preferred dividend payments. 🌊 While the sale was immaterial in size, the signal was not. Strategy has long been treated as a structural BTC buyer, so even a modest sale was enough to challenge the “never sell” narrative and weigh on broader sentiment. In markets, symbolism rarely pays dividends, but it can certainly move prices. Macro Turns Less Forgiving 🛸 Oil pushed higher as Middle East hostilities flared and US-Iran talks stalled, keeping the Hormuz risk premium alive. Stronger US job openings data reduced confidence in near-term Fed cuts, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rates backdrop. 😘 BTC was therefore hit from both sides: crypto-specific deleveraging on one hand, and a macro tape where oil, real yields and policy uncertainty were all moving in the wrong direction on the other. That is not a particularly friendly seating arrangement for a high-beta asset. Options Market: Protection Still in Demand Options markets confirmed the defensive tone. 30D ATM implied vol repriced sharply higher to around 41.4, up more than 4 vols on the day and 7 vols on the week, while realised vol has caught up to implied. IV is no longer obviously cheap. Still, the surface continues to show persistent demand for downside protection, with the front-end term structure mildly inverted and risk reversals deeply negative. The message from vol is less “buy the dip” and more “please insure the dip before discussing it.” 😄 Cross-Asset Picture: AI Still Doing the Heavy Lifting The broader cross-asset picture remains mixed. Equities have been resilient on AI-linked earnings, supported by hyperscaler and semiconductor strength, but the rates market is pushing back against a smooth easing cycle. ⌨️ AI remains the key offset to the macro drag, but it is also becoming a concentration risk, with speculative capital increasingly pulled toward mega-cap tech and upcoming high-profile IPOs 👩‍🚀. The equity market still has a growth story. It just happens to be doing rather a lot of lifting for everyone else. Not Quite Panic, Not Quite Bargain-Hunting Overall, BTC is caught between structural adoption narratives and a less supportive near-term tape. Weak spot, MSTR-related sentiment damage, higher oil, firmer rate expectations, bid front-end vol, defensive skew and rising flies all point to a market still hedging downside rather than adding upside beta 😨 Unless BTC can reclaim and hold the 67k to 68k region, rallies are likely to remain vulnerable. The cleaner read is not panic. It is a repricing of downside convexity as investors wait to see whether the macro regime resolves into a soft-landing and Hormuz-resolution path, or slips into stickier inflation, higher real rates and weaker liquidity. 👨‍💻 Put simply: the market is not running for the exits. It is just making sure the exits are clearly marked. 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Links / X / LinkedIn / IG | @mechcapital ❤️

🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that under President Trump, the country will NOT have a central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to him, the administration opposes a government digital dollar and is betting on the private sector, stablecoins, and market‑based solutions rather than full control by the Federal Reserve. 🔥 This is another strong signal of support for the crypto industry and opposition to increased financial surveillance through a CBDC.

🎯 I’m actually bullish Intel now. Trump has given it the mandate of Heaven. Probably flips ETH

© Andrew Kang 🟢4:17 AM · Jan 22, 2026 Intel is now more than double the market cap of Ethereum 🪙 The US Government is the ultimate kingmaker 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

🚀 Security Reminder! Don't forget - and better double-check ⏰

🇺🇸 Pro-crypto Kevin Warsh has officially taken office as Chair of the US Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. Warsh is considered more friendly toward the crypto market and technological innovation, and his appointment is already being discussed as a potentially bullish catalyst for BTC, XRP, and the broader crypto market 👁 Market attention is now focused on the Fed’s future policy: interest rate cuts, liquidity, and the approach toward digital assets could shift faster than many expect.

❤️ BTC broke below $78k as long-gamma support faded. Over $4B of IBIT options rolled off on Friday, reducing spot support. Macro pressure is building with equities lower and US yields at cycle highs. USD/JPY near 160 raises intervention and yen-carry unwind risks. Trade talks underwhelmed, with few concrete tariff or rare earth details. Markets are repricing higher Fed risk, with hikes back on the radar. Crypto likely remains range-bound until a clearer macro catalyst emerges. Gamma Support Gives Way After being range-bound around the $80k area for most of the month while other assets led the move, BTC finally broke below the $78k support level earlier. Spot had been largely pinned by options positioning, with dealers long at-the-money gamma, particularly in IBIT options, helping to suppress volatility. However, following Friday’s expiry, where over $4B of IBIT options rolled off, that stabilising gamma effect has faded, reducing the mechanical support that had kept BTC anchored in a tight range. Macro Crosscurrents Turn Less Forgiving That said, the timing is far from ideal for the bulls, with equities pulling back from recent highs while bond yields push to fresh cycle peaks (US 10Y: 4.62%, 30Y: 5.14%). Meanwhile, USD/JPY at 158 to 159 is edging toward the psychologically important 160 level 🧠, where intervention risk increases and crowded yen-carry positions could begin to unwind sharply, potentially draining a key source of global liquidity that has typically been supportive for risk assets. Policy Lines in the Sand 🎛 These levels in yields and USD/JPY often function as political and psychological lines in the sand, where rising market stress increases the probability of a policy response or intervention. 🇺🇸 For instance, when the US 10Y yield surged above 4.5% during the April 2025 tariff episode, the ensuing bond-market stress likely played a role in prompting President Trump’s subsequent 90-day tariff pause. Trade Hopes Meet Inflation Reality 😤 This time, Trump is likely leaning on US-China trade negotiations to stabilise sentiment. However, with no reference to rare earth concessions for the US, and few concrete details on tariff reductions for China following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, the readouts have left markets somewhat underwhelmed. That is particularly true against a backdrop of rising oil prices and last week’s hot CPI print. Against this, markets are now pricing a 50% to 60% probability that the Fed’s benchmark rate will be 25bps higher by January, marking a clear regime shift from just a few months ago, when rate cuts were still the base case. Range Trade Returns, For Now 💭 That said, until we see meaningful headlines on tariffs or a concrete breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, crypto is likely to remain in a grinding, range-driven regime. Front-end crypto vol initially spiked on today’s downside move, but has already begun to be faded, even with NVIDIA earnings scheduled for Wednesday. In the absence of near-term catalysts, it likely will not take long for call overwriters to re-enter the market, which could once again mechanically pin spot around current levels in the near term. 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

🛏 Figure taught two robots to make a bed together - fully autonomous

Honestly, they’re better at it than most humans

©️ Brett Adcock

][ 🤖

][ 🤖

🤖 A user managed to regain control of an old wallet containing 5 BTC. 🔑 To recover the forgotten password, they used the capabilities of the Claude AI. ⌨️ The owner uploaded the contents of their old student computer to the AI. ⌨️ Based on that data, the neural network was able to determine the correct combination. Skynet is already near.

🦾❤️ BTC holds $80K, but remains capped near $84K. CPI was slightly hot, though shelter drove most of the upside. Supercore remains sticky, keeping Fed cut hopes in check. 🇨🇳 China PPI has turned positive, hinting goods disinflation may be fading. PPI, Trump-Xi talks and CLARITY are the key catalysts. Range-bound spot, compressed vols until the next macro impulse. BTC Holds $80K as Downside Pressure Fades 🟧 Bitcoin remains heavy but orderly, consolidating around $82K near its 200-day SMA. The market has absorbed ETF outflows and a slightly hotter CPI print without losing $80K, suggesting downside momentum is fading for now. That said, $84K remains the key topside level to clear. Without a fresh catalyst from softer PPI, constructive Trump-Xi headlines, or progress on CLARITY, spot likely remains range-bound, with vols still suppressed and positioning waiting for the next macro impulse CPI Looks Hotter on the Surface, but Shelter Does the Heavy Lifting ⬅️ Yesterday’s April CPI print came in slightly hot, with core CPI at 2.8% YoY versus 2.7% expected, briefly pushing 10Y yields toward 4.46%. The surface read was hawkish, but the details were less clean. Shelter, particularly owners’ equivalent rent, drove much of the upside and likely reflects delayed adjustments following the October 2025 BLS shutdown rather than a renewed inflation impulse. Ex-shelter, core goods remained subdued at just 1.14% YoY, supporting the view that tariff pass-through is not yet broadening into a full goods inflation shock. Supercore Keeps the Fed on Guard The stickier issue remains supercore. Core services ex-housing accelerated for a third straight month, keeping the market focused on demand and wage-sensitive inflation. At the same time, 🙃 China PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months suggests the global goods disinflation tailwind is fading. 🤖 AI-driven productivity gains and soft unit labour costs still argue against an outright inflation spiral, but the hurdle for Fed cuts is clearly moving higher. Catalysts Cluster Around Trade, PPI and CLARITY 👀 Attention now turns to a dense event calendar. Trump and Xi begin talks in Beijing today ➡️, with tariffs, trade, rare earth supply chains, and the Middle East all in focus. The Senate Banking Committee will also hold its executive session on the CLARITY Act, an important procedural step for crypto regulation. The setup leaves BTC waiting for a catalyst rather than breaking on its own. Softer PPI, constructive trade headlines, or progress on CLARITY could reopen topside momentum, but absent that, spot likely stays capped below $84K, with vols compressed and the market still range-bound. 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

🤝❤️ Trump and Xi to meet in Beijing this week, with tariffs and trade progress in focus Markets watching April CPI, PPI and retail sales for signs inflation is stabilising 🍦 Softer inflation could lower real yields and support crypto risk sentiment BTC holding above 80k despite recent ETF outflows seen as constructive ⚠️ Senate Banking Committee to review the CLARITY Act this week Crypto volatility remains near YTD lows, alongside a subdued VIX around 18 BTC likely to stay range-bound near term, with 84k acting as key resistance Markets awaiting greater clarity on inflation trends and US-Iran developments Macro Diplomacy Takes Centre Stage 😱 Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover trade, national security, rare earth supply chains and the Middle East conflict 😤. While the meeting may not yield immediate material breakthroughs, Trump is likely to frame the outcome positively regardless. Still, markets will be watching closely for signs of progress, particularly on tariffs, especially after last week’s U.S. trade court ruling that Trump’s 10% global tariffs were unlawful. Inflation Returns to the Driver’s Seat Crucial inflation data is also due this week, and we're watching closely for signs that inflation is plateauing rather than regaining momentum. Fed officials are now firmly prioritising price stability alongside a still-resilient labour market, so attention will be on whether the recent energy shock is filtering through into broader inflation and consumer demand. 😡 If this week’s data shows inflation stabilising, it could support expectations of easing financial conditions and allow real yields to drift lower, a backdrop that has historically been supportive for crypto. Conversely, if inflation continues to rise, it could reinforce expectations of prolonged policy tightness, keeping real yields higher for longer and weighing on risk assets such as crypto. Bitcoin Holds Its Ground Meanwhile, crypto continues to consolidate as broader markets navigate the divergence between record highs in equities and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. However, the fact that BTC has held above 80k despite spot ETF outflows last Thursday and Friday, as well as commentary around Saylor’s alleged “selling Bitcoin,” 🕕 may also be viewed as constructive. Regulatory Momentum Remains in Focus 🏧 The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is also set to review the CLARITY Act sometime this week. While this remains a procedural step rather than a final vote, it's still an important signal of legislative momentum. Any progress will shape expectations around regulatory clarity and, in turn, influence ETF and broader institutional flows. Volatility Stays Muted, For Now Overall, this is shaping up to be a high-stakes week. However, crypto volatility continues to drift lower and is still near year-to-date lows. Even the VIX, at around 18, points to relatively muted stress across broader markets. That said, crypto is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with 84k acting as a key resistance level, until there is greater clarity on inflation dynamics and developments surrounding US-Iran 🏁 📆 Key Events 🗓 Thu, 14 May: April Retail Sales | Trump-Xi meeting | CLARITY Act Executive Session Fri, 15 May: Trump-Xi meeting 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

🤝❤️ Trump and Xi to meet in Beijing this week, with tariffs and trade progress in focus Markets watching April CPI, PPI and retail sales for signs inflation is stabilising 🍦 Softer inflation could lower real yields and support crypto risk sentiment BTC holding above 80k despite recent ETF outflows seen as constructive ⚠️ Senate Banking Committee to review the CLARITY Act this week Crypto volatility remains near YTD lows, alongside a subdued VIX around 18 BTC likely to stay range-bound near term, with 84k acting as key resistance Markets awaiting greater clarity on inflation trends and US-Iran developments Macro Diplomacy Takes Centre Stage 😱 Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover trade, national security, rare earth supply chains and the Middle East conflict 😤. While the meeting may not yield immediate material breakthroughs, Trump is likely to frame the outcome positively regardless. Still, markets will be watching closely for signs of progress, particularly on tariffs, especially after last week’s U.S. trade court ruling that Trump’s 10% global tariffs were unlawful. Inflation Returns to the Driver’s Seat Crucial inflation data is also due this week, and we're watching closely for signs that inflation is plateauing rather than regaining momentum. Fed officials are now firmly prioritising price stability alongside a still-resilient labour market, so attention will be on whether the recent energy shock is filtering through into broader inflation and consumer demand. 😡 If this week’s data shows inflation stabilising, it could support expectations of easing financial conditions and allow real yields to drift lower, a backdrop that has historically been supportive for crypto. Conversely, if inflation continues to rise, it could reinforce expectations of prolonged policy tightness, keeping real yields higher for longer and weighing on risk assets such as crypto. Bitcoin Holds Its Ground Meanwhile, crypto continues to consolidate as broader markets navigate the divergence between record highs in equities and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. However, the fact that BTC has held above 80k despite spot ETF outflows last Thursday and Friday, as well as commentary around Saylor’s alleged “selling Bitcoin,” 🕕 may also be viewed as constructive. Regulatory Momentum Remains in Focus 🏧 The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is also set to review the CLARITY Act sometime this week. While this remains a procedural step rather than a final vote, it's still an important signal of legislative momentum. Any progress will shape expectations around regulatory clarity and, in turn, influence ETF and broader institutional flows. Volatility Stays Muted, For Now Overall, this is shaping up to be a high-stakes week. However, crypto volatility continues to drift lower and is still near year-to-date lows. Even the VIX, at around 18, points to relatively muted stress across broader markets. That said, crypto is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with 84k acting as a key resistance level, until there is greater clarity on inflation dynamics and developments surrounding US-Iran 🏁 📆 Key Events 🗓 Thu, 14 May: April Retail Sales | Trump-Xi meeting | CLARITY Act Executive Session Fri, 15 May: Trump-Xi meeting 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

💸 ❤️ The dollar ended roughly flat against G10 - a muted outcome given $114 crude and Philippine CPI at 7.2% vs. 5.5% expected. Beneath the surface: the yen held near 156 only after an estimated $30bn of Japanese intervention 🇯🇵; the Indonesian rupiah hit a record 17,443 🇮🇩; Taiwan dollar stable on institutional de-dollarisation flows from the Bureau of Labor Funds. Asian central banks are spending reserves to absorb a shock their structural oil exposure makes them uniquely vulnerable to. The surface calm is borrowed time. Constructive Flows, Macro Ceiling, and a Floor Being Quietly Built 💵 BTC cleared $80,000 on $1.63bn of cumulative ETF inflows across 1-5 May, then faded to $79,800 as flow slowed to just $46mn on 6 May. The institutional bid is real - CoinShares logged a fifth consecutive week of inflows, $155bn AUM, IBIT adding $335mn in a single session, but not powerful enough to break out against the macro ceiling. Options agreed: open interest stacked in the 45-55 call zone, active downside in the May 43 and 48 puts. Away from price, two developments are quietly building the floor. ✍️The CLARITY stablecoin compromise cleared the main procedural blocker for Senate markup. Morgan Stanley's E*Trade launch at 50bp brought crypto into mainstream brokerage distribution, undercutting Coinbase, Robinhood, and Schwab. Neither moves the tape this week. Both matter for the next leg. Payrolls, Auctions, and a Diplomacy Gap the Market Is Still Choosing to Ignore Payrolls are the immediate arbiter: strong validates the hawkish repricing and caps equities; soft revives easing and lifts duration. The May 11-13 auction cycle then tests whether the bond relief is fundable. Prediction markets assign 97% probability to no Hormuz normalisation by May 15. The gap between that pricing and the equity market's willingness to fade every escalation is the week's defining contradiction. FOMC minutes arrive May 20 - if crude hasn't de-escalated by then, the stagflation framing gets considerably 🌐 Official Links ▼ ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️

💧 Hormuz as the Macro Governor At a Glance 💧 Brent round-tripped $108 → $114 → $104 in 72 hours as Hormuz tensions flared then eased Fed path repriced hawkish: swaps now pricing >50% chance of a hike by April 2027 🔄 BTC cleared $80,000 on $1.63bn ETF inflows before fading - macro ceiling still intact Prediction markets: 97% probability of 🚫 no Hormuz normalisation by May 15 The Regime Brent spiked to $114 Tuesday as US and Iranian forces exchanged fire around Hormuz, then collapsed almost 8% Wednesday when Trump signalled progress and paused convoy operations ⏸. By Friday it had settled near $104, residual premium intact, panic gone. Every asset class tracked that arc. The real question was never whether growth holds; it was whether an energy shock this persistent turns stagflationary fast enough to box central banks in before diplomacy catches up. The Hawkish Repricing That Survived the Oil Selloff The 30-year briefly touched 5.00% Tuesday before oil's reversal pulled the 10-year back to ~4.34% by Thursday. But the hawkish repricing of the Fed path did not unwind with it - swaps moved to price a >50% probability of a hike by April 2027, early easing pushed to 2028, and those levels held. 🔋The market is treating energy-driven inflation as a structural constraint, not a pass-through. The May 11-13 auction cycle, 3Y through 30Y on consecutive sessions, is the first real test of whether this week's bond relief is fundable. Leadership Intact, but the Base Stays Narrow 🧠 The AI trade refused to break. SK Hynix surged 11%; Samsung reclaimed its $1tn market cap; Hon Hai April revenue grew nearly 30%. AMD and Super Micro confirmed AI capex is running ahead of macro anxiety, insulating a meaningful pocket of equities from the broader headwind. Durable, but not broad. Consumer discretionary, transport, and oil-import-sensitive EM remained under pressure. Index upside stays capped until rates stabilise or diplomacy delivers something the market can actually price. 🌐 Official Links ▼ Web / Linktree / X / LinkedIn | @mechcapital ❤️