YLose Free Picks

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FREE PICK: CARDINALS ML

It’s a pitcher’s duel tonight between Javier Assad and Sonny Gray. If they cancel each other out, I’ll take the better bullpen and the hotter team playing at home. The Cardinals beat the Cubs last night 7-6, giving St. Louis 6 wins in their last 7 games. The Cards have now won 4 of their last 5 at home and 9 of the last 13 against the Cubs at home. Gray is 6-2 with a 2.87 ERA and has won 3 of 4 home starts this season. In 11 appearances against Chicago, Gray has a 2.98 ERA. Last night was the first time in 8 games that the Cubs scored more than 4 runs.

FREE PICK: LUKA DONCIC OVER 29.5 POINTS

In two regular season games against Minnesota this season, Doncic scored 39 and 34 points. In Games 1 and 2 of this conference finals series, Doncic has scored 33 and 32. He’s played 41 minutes in each of the two games thus far and any effects of a knee or ankle injury appear to have worn off. Doncic is simply rising to the occasion and he’ll do it again today. Doncic has gone Over this number in three of his last four games and he’s hit his points prop in four straight. If you go back to last season, Doncic has now cleared this prop in five straight against Minnesota. The TWolves have yet to figure out a way to slow him down. Don’t expect that to change tonight.

FREE PICK: KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS UNDER 30.5 PRA

The game total tonight is set at 207.5, which is the same total that was set for Games 1 and 2. Both games did go Over the total, but were still relatively low-scoring. Expect that trend to continue. Along with that, expect Towns not to reach 20 points as he has done in Games 1 and 2. He scored 16 and 15 in those two games and totaled 25 PRA in both. Both of those totals went Under his PRA number. In fact, Towns has gone Under this number in 5 of his last 7 games and in 10 of his last 15. He’s also gone Under this number in 4 of his last 5 games against Dallas.

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PHILLIES-ROCKIES OVER 10.5

The Phillies lost for the first time in seven games last night…to the Rockies! Look out tonight. Dakota Hudson starts for Colorado. He’s been better his last two times out, but is still 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA. Even if he pitches well, he’ll give way to the 29th-ranked bullpen in baseball. The Phillies lead the majors in scoring, averaging 5.44 runs per game. They scored 40 runs in their recent six-game win streak. During that streak, they scored 11 runs in two different games. They might put this one Over by themselves.

YANKEES-PADRES OVER 7.5

Two pitchers with identical 3.05 ERAs. Both have winning records - Marcus Stroman is 3-2 for the Yankees. Dylan Cease of the Padres is 5-3. Perfect matchup for a low-scoring game right? Wrong! Cease got tagged for 5 ER in 4 IP vs. the Braves in his last start when Atlanta was having trouble hitting the ball. The Yankees are pounding the ball, especially against RHP. They are No. 1 in OPS in May vs. righties. Judge, Stanton, and Soto all homered in the third inning last night and the Yankees have scored 5 or more in 6 of their last 9. The Pads didn’t score last night. Expect them to add a few runs to push this one Over the total.

GUARDIANS-ANGELS F5 UNDER 4.5

Two red-hot pitchers here keep this total Under in the first half. Tanner Bibee gave up 6 ER against the Angels on May 3, but he’s turned the corner in his last two starts. 12.1 innings, 1 ER and Cleveland has won his last three starts in a row. In fact, the Guardians have won 9 of Bibee’s 10 starts and 4 of the last 5 have gone Under the total. Jose Soriano is killing it too. 13 innings and 1 ER in his last two starts. Six of the last nine Guardians-Angels games have gone Under the game total. This one stays Under early.

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