OCBC Research Insights

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP112 (12 Jul 2024): Singapore's Economy 📊 Singapore's economic growth surprised the market on the upside in the first half. 🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share her takeaways about the local economy. #OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

Credit Insights EP64 (11 Jul 2024): Singapore Credit Market 2H2024 In this episode, we dive into the latest trends and help you navigate the credit market. Here are 3 key takeaways: 1⃣ Solid First Half: Default risks are low and returns are positive, especially for non-financial capital. 2⃣ Opportunities and Challenges: While the market is hot, there are sectors to watch, like developers facing rising financing costs. 3⃣ Stay Invested: Defaults are expected to remain low. OCBC Credit Research prefers investing in short-dated bonds and higher yielding credits. For more insights, read the full report here! #OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #WongHongWei

Credit Insights EP65 (11 Jul 2024): Singapore Credit Market 2H2024 In this episode, we dive into the latest trends and help you navigate the credit market. Here are 3 key takeaways: 1. Solid First Half: Default risks are low and returns are positive, especially for non-financial capital. 2. Opportunities and Challenges: While the market is hot, there are sectors to watch, like developers facing rising financing costs. 3. Stay Invested: Defaults are expected to remain low. OCBC Credit Research prefers investing in short-dated bonds and higher yielding credits For more insights, read the full report here! #OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #WongHongWei

FX and Rates EP95 (11 Jul 2024): 2H2024 Central Bank Policy Outlook 🏛 Our base-case is for 50bps of Fed funds rate cut by year-end, as the US labour market cools 🏦 Expect BoE and ECB to each cut by 50bps by year-end; but watch wage growth 📄 Expect the BoJ to tighten monetary policy via both the policy rate and its balance sheet #OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #FrancesCheung

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 8 July 2024) 🌏 Global: Central Banks; Labour Wins Big, Conservatives Falter; French Left-Wing Spendjng Plans Raise Questions; US Labour Market Remains Strong But Shows Signs of Cooling; Fed & ECB Refrain From Committing to Rate Path at Sintra; Euro Area Inflation Slows, Services Still Sticky 🇸🇬 Singapore: Electronics Sector Will Fuel Manufacturing Growth 🇨🇳 China: Contribution to Global Disinflation; PBoC’s Toolbox 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Retail Sales Stayed Weak 🇲🇴 Macau: Gross Gaming Revenue Slowed in June ASEAN - 5: Sufficient Reserves 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Improving Labour Market, Poverty Rate 🇹🇭 Thailand: Lower Inflation in June 🇵🇭 Philippines: Lower June CPI Supports BSP’s Increasing Easing Bias 🛢Commodities: Gains Extended At The Start of July ♻️ ESG: Malaysia Considers Implementing Carbon Tax as CBAM Kicks In 💱 FX & Rates: China Interest Rate Corridor; Cooling Labour Market in US Read the full report from here! #OCBCResearchInsights #WeeklyMacroViews

China Week in Review EP83 (8 Jul 2024): China's Central Bank 🏦 China's central bank has tightened its grip on the price movement in the bond market after verbal intervention failed to cool down the market. 🎙 In today's podcast, we will discuss how China's central bank demonstrated its power to intervene the market and why betting against the central bank is always a difficult game. #OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP111 (5 Jul 2024): Elections 🗳 Both the UK and France are heading to the polls this week. 🇬🇧 The latest exit polls suggest that Labour will end the Conservative's 14-year rule in the UK. 🇫🇷 Meanwhile, France is moving towards the second round of parliamentary elections, posing a challenging decision for President Macron to choose the next Premier from either the far right or far left. Based on recent price movements, it seems the impact of the French election is greater than that of the UK election. 🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share her takeaways. #OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

📑 Exclusive Global Outlook 2H 2024 Report: Treading Cautiously into 2024 We are pleased to release the Global Outlook 2H 2024 report, containing our analysts' views on the economic outlook of - 🇺🇸 United States: Normalisation Underway 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Watching Wages 🇸🇬 Singapore: A Time of Transition 🇦🇺 Australia: Sluggish Growth; Sticky Inflation 🇯🇵 Japan: Virtuous Inflation-Wage Cycle 🇰🇷 South Korea: Growth Rebound 🇮🇳 India: The Going Will Be Tougher 🇨🇳 China: More Support Needed 🇭🇰 Hong Kong: From Reactive to Proactive 🇲🇴 Macau: Cyclical Optimism Sustained 🇹🇼 Taiwan: On Track for Solid Growth 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Coping With Changes 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Recovering Slowly 🇲🇾 Malaysia: Holding Its Own 🇹🇭 Thailand: Higher Growth But At A Cost? 🇵🇭 Philippines: Ready to Ease 🇲🇲 Myanmar: Conflict Constrained ♻️ There are also other thematic reports where we discuss the global politics and sustainability topics. Read the full report here! #OCBCResearchInsights #MacroOutlook2H2024