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Crypto, Capital Markets, AI In Service of Freedom. TG: @somonaut X: https://x.com/somonaut

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Repost from Dissident Thoughts
crowded.pdf1.35 MB

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Crowding in finance is not inherently a bad thing. In fact, we need to distinguish between organized crowding and chaotic crowding. 1. Organized Crowding: The Bedrock of Market Liquidity In traditional markets, structured crowding is exactly how price discovery happens. When a massive volume of market participants congregates around a specific options strike price, it creates a robust ecosystem. => How it works: This concentration allows Market Makers (MMs) to efficiently match buyers and sellers, net out opposing risks, and structurally balance their books. => The result: Instead of destabilizing the market, this type of crowding deepens liquidity and lowers transaction costs. 2. Chaotic Crowding: The Leverage Powder Keg Conversely, bad crowding is unstructured and volatile—perfectly illustrated by the crypto markets or highly speculative retail trends. => How it works: You have a massive, uncoordinated herd of traders all stacked on the same side of a trade (long or short) using extreme leverage. => The feedback loop: In this environment, Market Makers face severe inventory risk because they cannot easily offset their exposure. The slightest price tick against the crowd triggers a domino effect of forced liquidations and margin calls. This forces MMs to aggressively hedge in the same direction as the panic, transforming a simple price fluctuation into a violent, unstable cascade. 3. The Contrarian Playbook: Timing the Turning Point To successfully execute a contrarian strategy, simply seeing "crowding" isn't enough. You need two distinct pillars aligned against the big players => Extreme Positioning (The Fuse): Positioning must be pushed to a historical, unsustainable extreme. The crowd must be fully deployed, leaving no "marginal buyers" (or sellers) left to sustain the trend. => A Catalyst for Mispricing (The Spark): You need a rock-solid economic thesis where the structural assumptions of clients are fundamentally wrong. A prime example is betting on an imminent recession during a US presidential election year—a macro scenario where political assumptions might blind market participants to deteriorating economic realities.
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Since starting Dekant, I’ve been obsessed with one question: Why do some products enter the market’s mind, while others disap
Since starting Dekant, I’ve been obsessed with one question: Why do some products enter the market’s mind, while others disappear? The deeper I went into growth, the clearer it became: the first principle of building a startup, especially a new category, is positioning. Not ads. Not content. Not a better tagline. Positioning. The market has to know what you are, why you matter, what you replace, and why now. If you do not answer that clearly, the market answers it for you. So I went deep. I read the books. Studied the old frameworks. Looked at category strategy, founder narratives, launches, and every source I could find. Eventually, I found Ekram’s work. His thinking was not sitting in one clean place. It was scattered across tweets, essays, articles, talks, and conference appearances. The first time I saw his GTM talk in Bangkok, it clicked: This was not marketing. It was the discipline behind how a product becomes understood. So I started reconstructing it. The result is a 16-chapter field manual based on Ekram’s method. I’ve shared it with some of the sharpest marketers I know across crypto and AI. The feedback has been strong. After weeks of iteration, I’m planning to publish it next week. But I did not want the method to only live as a book. A book should not only be read. It should be run. So I turned the method into a skill: Positioning Products. You can use it with your agent to pressure-test a product, startup, personal brand, protocol, book, landing page, name, or launch post before the market misreads it. It does not start with copy. It starts with the harder questions: What is this? Why does it matter? What does it replace? Why now? What must be sacrificed for the position to become sharp? Better words come after better positioning. Open to feedback on the skill: https://www.skills.sh/soheilmomeniii/positioning-products/positioning-products
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there are a lot of coding skills but few that help structure a product idea and steer it in the right direction, this is one of them https://www.skills.sh/soheilmomeniii/positioning-products —> using the Ekram positioning method GG somo
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TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LIFTS RESTRICTIONS ON OPENAI'S GPT 5.6 - AXIOS ...
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a quick breakdown of how Higgsfield went from “just another AI video tool” in 2025 to a $1B+ AI marketing company it covers: how they turned product generation into real ad workflows how they used creators and free credits as distribution and why the author ignored the opportunity before understanding it one year later full post: https://x.com/TheDomid/status/2074524195984212222?s=20
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Unknown Unknowns Thariq put together this article that is pointing to a very delicate architectural/PM issue https://x.com/trq212/article/2073100352921215386 Right now, many of these AI models r more savvy than us at lots of domains (makes sense cause their understanding is at least at the average knowledge lvl of the internet) Wen v prompt them, it's like v r trying to manage a junior employee who is smarter than us in many ways V r basically steering a project with many unknowns, so that makes us the bottleneck not the AI Practically if v r smart enough, v 20 80 it and compensate for our ignorance in an efficient way, but wen it comes to making it work & edge cases, v don't even know what v don't know & this is not only true at the planning stage, one can also imagine an effective feedback loop at pre/during/post implementation These r the example prompts he is using in his ops to figure those unknowns out: Blind Spot Pass “I'm working on adding a new auth provider but I know nothing about the auth modules in this codebase. Can you do a blindspot pass to help me figure out my relevant unknown unknowns and help me prompt you better.” “I don’t know what color grading is but I need to grade this video. Can you teach me to understand my unknown unknowns about color grading, so that I can prompt better?” Brainstorms and prototypes "I want a dashboard for this data but I have no visual taste and don't know what's possible. Make me an HTML page with 4 wildly different design directions so I can react to them.” “Before wiring anything up, make a single HTML file mocking the new editor toolbar with fake data. I want to react to the layout before you touch the real app." "Here's my rough problem: users churn after onboarding. Search the codebase and brainstorm 10 places we could intervene, from cheapest to most ambitious. I'll tell you which ones resonate." Interviews "Interview me one question at a time about anything ambiguous, prioritize questions where my answer would change the architecture." References "This Rust crate in vendor/rate-limiter implements the exact backoff behavior I want. Read it and reimplement the same semantics in our TypeScript API client." Implementation Plans "Write an implementation plan in HTML, but lead with the decisions I'm most likely to tweak with: data model changes, new type interfaces, and anything user-facing. Bury the mechanical refactoring at the bottom, I trust you on that part." During implementation Implementation notes "Keep an implementation-notes.md file. If you hit an edge case that forces you to deviate from the plan, pick the conservative option, log it under 'Deviations', and keep going." Post implementation Pitches and explainers "Package the prototype, the spec, and the implementation notes into a single doc I can drop in Slack to get buy-in. Lead with the demo GIF." Quizzes “I want to make sure I understand everything that's happened in this change. Give me a HTML report on the changes for me to read and understand with context, intuition, what was done, etc. and a quiz at the bottom on the changes that I must pass.” There was this AI engineer World Fair at the end of June/beginning of July, he gave a talk there too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fubhllmsBU I'll be checking many of those talks out, will ping u guyz here with interesting ones
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https://01resolved.com/research/ownership-coin-monthly-research-report-june-2026/
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CRYPTO CLARITY ACT HAS UNTIL AUGUST 7TH TO PASS BEFORE THE SENATE LEAVES FOR SUMMER RECESS. ...
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Bayeslord on early AI takeoff, intelligence supply chains, robotics, and lab scale power. https://x.com/bayeslord/status/2072056960430789032
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https://x.com/izebel_eth/status/1987796233344446533?s=20
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flirting in ai era
flirting in ai era
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Fear of falling behind The voice does not make you faster. It drains the focus you need to keep moving. There is no way back, only forward. → https://x.com/somonaut/status/2072848912747217215?s=20
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SEC CHAIR ATKINS SAYS AGENCY TAKING 'HISTORIC STEPS' TO MOVE US MARKETS ONCHAIN SOURCE
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https://x.com/ksimback/status/2072752017186107866?s=52
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Mo on why new markets onboard the next crypto cohort New assets to trade, new ways to trade, and views people already have with nowhere to go. https://x.com/embrron/status/2072782296793682127?s=20
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If you know a designer who has experience or specializes in book cover design, DM me: @somonaut
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https://youtu.be/g_r9v2SB7s8 banger podcast. can highly recommend
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How Local Stablecoins Trade Another sharp report from Amir. He keeps finding the weird corners of crypto markets that most people ignore Keyrock Research is also one of the few teams still publishing genuinely deep crypto research these days. You can also join their TG channel: @keyrockinsights
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Our latest report is here. Co-published with Bitso and featuring insights from Dune, Ripple, Qivalis, Bridge, and Mirae Asset
Our latest report is here. Co-published with Bitso and featuring insights from Dune, Ripple, Qivalis, Bridge, and Mirae Asset, we track local stablecoins across the four stages of their lifecycle, from centralised exchanges through to onchain pools. Stablecoins have meant dollars, but the local ones have grown up. Non-USD supply has grown 50× since 2020 to $2.2B, and the dollar's share of fiat-to-stablecoin trading has held below 50% for three straight quarters. The Korean won arrived at $29B in a single quarter, withdrawals into self-custody hit a record $206M in Q1 2026, and onchain trading crossed $1B in March. But the market thins at every stage, and only the euro is active the whole way down. Find out how local stablecoins actually trade, and which currencies scale next: https://keyrock.com/how-local-stablecoins-trade/
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