Demographics Now and Then

🇪🇬👶Egypt on track to have a TFR of less than 2.5 for the 1st time in history. TFR was 3.5 as recently as 2014 & 3.0 in 2018. Egypt is likely to fall below replacement TFR before 2030 as urban and secular couples see TFR plummet just as religious couples also have smaller families.

🇦🇺👶Australia is now at ~1.50 TFR. The Lucky Country, which saw a substantial fertility clawback from 2006 to 2015 (when TFR stayed above 1.8 partly as the result of natalist benefits), is now facing the worst TFR ever recorded in its history. Around the same level as the UK.

The future is almost foretold for Eastern Europe. That fatal mixture of mass emigration and below replacement fertility is the absolute cause. But expect to see this pattern repeat across much of Latin America, developing Asia, & even places like Tunisia and Morocco.

This could be the 1st year in Thailand since records began that less than 500,000 annual births are recorded. The country is also on track for sub 1.0 TFR for 2024. This combined with potentially declining immigration from Burma by the 2030s spells disaster in the decades ahead. However, averting immediate demographic problems for Thailand by importing Burmese means trouble for Myanmar. Burma simply cannot have 200,000 young people move to Thailand annually in 2030s without dramatic long term consequences for their own country (which is already approaching replacement TFR).

If the CCP went culturally “all in” to achieve a transformation in fertility they would still not be able to get TFR back to 1.8. But it could still stop TFR from getting to South Korean or Taiwanese levels and possibly get TFR back to 1.3 or higher.

Obviously workism is a modern problem across all of East Asia that did not come from the West but rather the effort to become part of (& exceed within) the Western dominated global economy from 1975-2015. But CCP may use propaganda to make such concepts seem foreign\undesirable.

Costs of cars, housing, & other consumer items are getting cheaper for average Chinese. This combats the notion that things have gotten too expensive in China to afford a family. The problem is that the culture has changed & most young Chinese no longer value kids as most important. China has a window for targeted natalism & cultural change. Could easily see CCP in the near future having campaigns to reject 996 work culture and cram schools as “negative and western”. They could make this argument by associating them with individualism/materialist chasing.

Azerbaijan and Russia may end up with the same TFR in 2024 (~1.4) if current trends hold. Looking at how much higher Azerbaijani TFR was than Russian TFR in 1990, 2000, 2010 and even 2020 this is remarkable.

Labor market collapses are already in the midst of happening in South Korea,Italy, Taiwan,Germany,Japan,& many other developed economies. But they are just around the corner for Poland,Brazil, Thailand,Romania,Chile,& many developing & d

Brunei has now been below replacement for citizens as well as residents for several years now. Citizen fertility around the same level as that of ethnic Malays in Malaysia (~1.8). Permanent and temporary residents far below replacement(similar to trend of Canadian immigrants).