️Macro Alpha Analytics🫆

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Vera Rubin 世代的 AI 数据中心，冷却架构已出现根本性改变—— 不再依赖传统大型 HVAC「大冷气」，而是全面转向 Direct Liquid Cooling（直接液冷）。 黄仁勋已明确指出，45°C 的水即可用于冷却。从工程角度看，只要晶片表面可承受 80–90°C，45°C 的水对晶片而言依然是“低温介质”，热交换效率完全足够。 更关键的是，这种液冷系统的回水温度偏高，仅需约 30°C 的室外空气即可完成换热，大幅降低对 Chiller 与高耗能制冷系统的依赖。 这意味着： AI 数据中心的冷却逻辑，正从「冷空气」转向「直接冷晶片」， 传统以空气制冷为核心的 HVAC 系统，正面临结构性弱化的风险。 ❌ 注意投资 HVAC / Cooling system 相关的公司

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Trump: NATO members to face tariffs increasing to 25% until a Greenland purchase deal is struck https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/17/trump-greenland-tariffs-nato.html?__source=androidappshare

截图于柠檬大叔 先知先觉，而不是后知后觉。

PNB launches US$300mil exchangeable sukuk to boost diversification | New Straits Times https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2026/01/1357867/pnb-launches-us300mil-exchangeable-sukuk-boost-diversification

很多人问，为什么 Gamuda 跌这么多。 根据 Bloomberg headlines，市场消息指出 PNB 计划为 Gamuda 发行约 3 亿美元的可转换债券（Convertible Bond），这也是近期股价承压的主要原因。 除了这个消息，目前并没有听到其他重大的负面消息或基本面变化。

⚠️ 核心观察点（Key Observation）： 虽然基本面与治理结构现转机，但需密切关注 Mr Chong 的最新去向。鉴于其对公司核心业务及订单引入的重大贡献，其职位的稳定性将直接影响大客户关系的延续性。

【管理层昨日闭市交流：订单强劲，治理反转在即】 管理层在 Briefing 中重申订单需求极其旺盛。值得关注的是，公司深度绑定 2025 年“十倍潜力股” Lumentum，核心供应商地位稳固，未来增长确定性高。 针对市场担心的董事会纷争，另有投行指出纠纷已步入尾声，僵局最快有望在下周彻底解决。

Northeast, 15 Jan 4.30-5.30pm Representatives – Ng Chin Hee (COO), Yin Thien Hee (Chief Marketing Director), Tang Guan Hao (Admin & Finance Director) Earnings outlook and margins 1QFY26 (Oct–Dec) results are expected to be strong, with sequential QoQ improvement. The outlook for 2QFY26 remains robust, underpinned by positive customer forecasts. Management is confident of delivering margin expansion despite a stronger Ringgit and higher raw material costs, supported by ASP adjustments, improved labour productivity, and shorter process cycle times. Capacity expansion Current utilisation stands at approximately 80%, with around 20% spare capacity. While the new four-storey 100k sqft facility (to be funded by IPO proceeds) is only expected to be completed and operational in 2028/2029, near-term capacity will be expanded through the refitting of existing warehouse facilities, requiring c.RM15m in capex and adding an estimated 20 to 30% incremental capacity. Key customer – Lumentum Lumentum is a key customer, contributing around 30% of revenue currently, though this is expected to moderate to around 20% over time as contributions from other and new customers scale up. Beyond optical transceiver components, Northeast also supplies non-transceiver products to Lumentum, including components for optical circuit switches. Based on Lumentum results guidance, it has expanded electro-absorption modulated laser (EML) capacity in Thailand by 40% between mid-2024 and mid-2025, with a further 40% increase targeted by end-2025. Despite these expansions, Lumentum remains supply-constrained, with demand exceeding available supply by approximately 25-30%. As such, Northeast management said that Lumentum has requested them to be prepared to double/triple capacity. Northeast also mentioned that Lumentum’s Thailand operations currently employ around 5,000 headcount and plans to scale up to 7,000–8,000 headcount in 2026 (recent news reports saying it’s already at 6k) Personal opinion Generally, we find they know the business operation well and can talk it through clearly, though there may be room for polish when engaging with investors. Also worth bearing in mind that this session was ‘fixed’ at fairly short notice, and it was their first time speaking to investors (if I’m not mistaken). Overall, the visit instilled a rather high confidence that all is BAU. As pertaining to the board tussle, we hope that this will be resolved amicably. Woo Kim and J Young, HLIB

Capex 56b usd