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Sudan paramilitaries clash with army in Khartoum and other cities By Khalid Abdelaziz and Nafisa Eltahir KHARTOUM (Reuters via PiQSuite.com/Suite) -Violence erupted between Sudan's main paramilitary group and the armed forces on Saturday in an apparent struggle for control against the backdrop of the country's halting moves toward elections after a military coup. Amid conflicting reports from the two sides, the army rejected assertions by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that they had seized the presidential palace, army chief's residence and airports in Khartoum and the northern city of Merowe. Doctors confirmed three deaths but said many more civilians had been killed and wounded in the clashes that shook residential neighbourhoods of the capital. Fighting was also taking place at the headquarters of Sudan's state TV, according to an on-air anchor. The army said the Sudanese air force was conducting operations against the RSF. Footage from broadcasters showed military jets flying low over Khartoum, but Reuters could not independently confirm the material. Gunfire and explosions could be heard across the capital, where TV footage showed smoke rising from several districts. Eyewitnesses reported shooting in adjoining cities. A Reuters journalist saw cannon and armoured vehicles deployed on the capital's streets and heard heavy weapons fire near the headquarters of both the army and RSF. Army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan told Al Jazeera TV that the RSF should back down: "We think if they are wise they will turn back their troops that came into Khartoum. But if it continues we will have to deploy troops into Khartoum from other areas."  The armed forces said on Facebook it would not negotiate with the RSF unless the paramilitary force dissolved. The RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, called Burhan a "criminal" and a "liar". The military and RSF have been competing for power as political factions negotiate forming a transitional government.     "We know where you are hiding and we will get to you and hand you over to justice, or you die just like any other dog," he said in an interview with the station. The RSF, which analysts say is 100,000 strong, said its forces were attacked first by the army, which surrounded one of its bases and opened fire with heavy weapons. The army said it was fighting the RSF at sites the paramilitaries claimed to have taken. A prolonged confrontation between the RSF and the army could plunge Sudan into widespread conflict as it struggles with economic breakdown and tribal violence, and could also derail efforts to move towards elections. The clashes follow rising tensions over the RSF's integration into the military. The disagreement has delayed the signing an internationally backed agreement with political parties on a transition to democracy.  Civilian forces that signed a draft version of that agreement in December called on Saturday for an immediate halt to hostilities by both the army and the RSF, to stop Sudan sliding towards "the precipice of total collapse".     "This is a pivotal moment in the history of our country," they said in a statement. "This is a war that no one will win, and that will destroy our country forever." The RSF accused the army of carrying out a plot by loyalists of former strongman President Omar Hassan al-Bashir - who was ousted in a coup in 2019 - and attempting a coup itself. A 2021 coup ousted the country's civilian prime minister. RSF SAYS EGYPTIAN TROOPS SAFE Eyewitnesses reported fighting in many areas outside the capital. Those included heavy exchanges of gunfire in Merowe, northern Sudan, eyewitnesses told Reuters. The RSF shared a video that it said showed Egyptian troops who "surrendered" to them in Merowe. Egypt's military said the troops were in Sudan for exercises with their Sudanese counterparts. As Cairo sought guarantees for their safety, Hemedti told Sky News Arabia the Egyptians were safe and the RSF would cooperate with Cairo on their return.

The video showed men dressed in army fatigues crouched on the ground and speaking to RSF members in an Egyptian Arabic dialect. Unconfirmed reports by open-source intelligence analysts said several Egyptian Air Force fighter planes and their pilots were captured by the RSF. Clashes had also erupted between the RSF and army in the Darfur cities of El Fasher and Nyala, eyewitnesses said. The RSF said it had taken control of airports in El Fasher as well as in West Darfur state. International powers - the U.S., Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Nations, the European Union and the African Union - all called for an immediate end to the hostilities. After a phone call, the Saudi, U.S. and UAE foreign ministers called for a return to the framework agreement on the transition to democracy, the Saudi state news agency reported. Chad closed its border with Sudan while Ethiopia and Kenya called for restraint. A Saudi Arabian airlines plane at Khartoum airport came under fire during clashes and the carrier suspended flights to and from Sudan, the state-owned airline said. Egypt's national airline, Egyptair, said it was suspending flights to Khartoum for 72 hours. Hemedti's RSF evolved from so-called janjaweed militias that fought in a conflict in the 2000s in the Darfur region, where an estimated 2.5 million people were displaced and 300,000 killed. (Reporting by Khalid Abdelaziz in Khartoum and Nafisa Eltahir in Cairo; Writing by Nafisa Eltahir, Michael Georgy, Giles Elgood and Cynthia Osterman; Editing by Alex Richardson, Jan Harvey, Frances Kerry and Daniel Wallis)

2023년 4월 2일(한국시간) 밤 전격적으로 OPEC+회원국들이 4월 정례 OPEC+ 미팅을 앞두고 자발적 감산 조치를 발표했습니다. 배경은 여러가지가 있지만 최근 일련의 Bank run 사태에 따른 Financial Risk에 의한 유가 급락에 대응하고, 미국이 작년 선언했던 WTI $70/bbl 근처에서 SPR을 재매입하겠다는 약속을 미루고 있는 상황에서 Global Supply/Demand를 조정할 필요가 있었기 때문으로 해석하고 있습니다 금일 진행예정인 OPEC+의 JMMC 미팅 이전에 미리 감산 조치를 발표하는 것은 과거에도 없었던 일은 아니나, 감산 규모를 고려하면 이례적이라고 평가할만 합니다. 최근 2주간 Hedge Fund들이 대부분 Long Position을 청산하고, 일부 Short 베팅을 시작한 상황에서 갑작스럽게 이런 조치를 발표했기 때문에 금주 유가 변동성이 굉장히 클 것으로 예상됩니다. 주요 회원국 별 감산 내용은 아래와 같습니다. Number of #Opec+ voluntary production cuts in kbpd Saudi Arabia 500 Iraq 211 UAE 144 Kuwait 128 Kazakhstan 78 Algeria 48 Oman 40 Gabon 8 Russia 500 Total 1.657mbpd

GOLDMAN SACHS RAISES BRENT CRUDE PRICE FORECASTS TO $95/BBL FOR DEC 2023, $100/BBL FOR DEC 2024, AFTER OPEC ANNOUNCES SURPRISE OUTPUT CUTS GOLDMAN SACHS LOWERS OPEC+ PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR END-2023 BY 1.1 MLN BPD

Oil price gap surge higher after the shock weekend OPEC+ news (swingeing output cut) ICYMI, the huge news: Saudi Arabia and other gulf states announce 1 million barrels per day in oil output cuts That's a massive swing in a physical market that already looked like it would tighten substantially into the summer. The move shows the vulnerability of the US after unloading about 1 million barrels per day for six months last year (and into this year). What's especially notable is that this announcement goes through year end. It's also a slap in the face to reports that the UAE was thinking of ditching OPEC as their participation is particularly notable.

DUBAI, April 2 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced voluntary cuts to their production, with Riyadh saying it would cut output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023, state media reported. Russia's deputy prime minister also said Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd until the end of 2023. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Algeria said they would voluntarily cut output over the same time period. The UAE said it would cut production by 144,000 bpd, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 bpd while Iraq said it would cut output by 211,000 bpd and Oman announced a cut of 40,000 bpd. Algeria said it would cut its output by 48,000 bpd. The Saudi energy ministry said in a statement that the kingdom's voluntary cut was a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.

Oil Analyst: A Longer Road to Higher Prices 18 March 2023 | 9:15PM EDT ■ Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows. Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices. We incorporate this market feature in our framework, and nudge down our Brent forecasts to $94/bbl for 12 months ahead, and $97/bbl in 2024H2 (vs. $100 previously for both), accordingly. ■ Our adjustment also reflects somewhat softer fundamentals, namely higher-than-expected near-term inventories, moderately lower demand, and modestly higher non-OPEC supply. We, however, still believe that sharp rises in EM demand will outweigh moderate declines in DM demand, pivot the market back into deficits from June onward, and drive the recovery. ■ We have lowered our demand projections for Europe and North America in 2023 and 2024 incorporating softer realized data, and slower US GDP growth. In contrast, we have further front-loaded the recovery in Eastern demand, especially in China. On net, our annual average demand estimates are unchanged for 2023, but lower (-0.6mb/d) for 2024. ■ We have raised our non-OPEC supply estimates in 2023 (+0.3mb/d) and 2024 (+0.2mb/d), incorporating several upside surprises, most notably in Russia. We still assume that Russia gradually implements its announced 0.5mb/d production cut in the context of OPEC+ coordination. However, following the decline in prices, we have nudged down our US supply path, and now think OPEC will only increase its output in 2024Q3. ■ We conclude with a hypothetical moderate OECD-centric recession scenario. If OECD and non-OECD growth are 4pp and 1pp below our baseline in 2023Q2-2024Q1, respectively, then our timespreads model implies a hit to Brent prices of $22/bbl by 2024Q1. However, the estimated immediate price hit is just $4/bbl because spot oil markets generally price the near-term outlook for inventories, which only reach high levels after multiple quarters of demand damage. While stylized, this estimate increases our conviction that oil markets have turned excessively pessimistic about the outlook, and that oil prices should recover in most of the likely growth scenarios.