S2UndergroundWire

//The Wire//2100Z June 25, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: RIOTS ERUPT IN NAIROBI. JULIAN ASSANGE FREE IN PLEA DEAL.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Julian Assange has agreed to a plea deal with the United States which will allow him to go free, with his previous years of detention in the U.K. reportedly counting as time-served towards his sentencing. He is currently traveling back to Australia. Kenya: Riots have broken out throughout the capital of Nairobi following the proposal of a new finance bill that would raise taxes throughout the nation. So far, 5x people have been killed after police fired into a crowd of protesters earlier today. -HomeFront- Midwest: Severe flooding continues to plague the region. In Minnesota, the Rapidan Dam in Blue Earth County has reached the conditions indicative of an imminent failure due to severe flooding throughout the region. The dam has so far suffered a partial breach on the western abutment, partially relieving the growing pressure on the dam structure. In Iowa, flooding caused a levee failure on the Little Sioux River in Monona County. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The situation in Kenya (and throughout Africa at large) remains complex and potentially more significant due to outside influence. Yesterday, the White House designated Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA), which serves as a mostly diplomatic milestone to symbolize tightening relations. However, both China and Russia have invested significant efforts over the past few years to expand their influence throughout Africa. Of note, during these latest riots in Nairobi, various photos and videos circulating social media indicate the presence of Russian flags at demonstrations. It is not clear as to if this is an isolated incident or more indicative of foreign influence, however similar actions were observed during the riots in Niger, which has seen the withdrawal of US forces in the region (which is still underway), alongside the simultaneous welcoming of Russian advisors. It’s too soon to tell if Kenya will be a more substantial (and powerful) nation by which the various proxy conflicts in Africa can continue, but considering the worsening relations between the U.S. and Russia, the latter would be highly incentivized to cause trouble for the U.S. in Kenya, or at least undermine the efforts undertaken by the State Department in the region. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

Analyst Comments: Adding even more gasoline to the fire in Ukraine, An American RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance drone was flying over the Black Sea (and without question collecting intelligence on the Russian naval base in Sevastopol) at the time of the strike. As a reminder, the Global Hawk platform, while entirely capable of providing targeting data, is not really the best platform for the task of kinetic targeting. More than likely the American drone was conducting a routine flight over the Black Sea, as has become common during the past few years. Though it is unlikely to be observed by any party at this point, it’s entirely possible that the American drone was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and therefore the United States finds itself in the diplomatically precarious situation of being guilty by association. It’s also possible that Ukraine, desperate beyond all measure for U.S. support, waited until a routine drone flight was in the air to launch the strike…knowing the Russia would finger the U.S. for being associated with the targeting of civilians. In any case, the situation both abroad and overseas has progressed to the point that minute details likely do not matter as much as they used to. Russia will point the finger at the U.S. for the attack, with quite a bit of legitimate justification as the data gathered by the U.S. and shared with the Ukrainians likely directly resulted in the strike in the first place (even if the American drone in the area at the time was not directly involved with designating targets at the time of the strike). The U.S. has of course denied the claims of direct involvement with Ukrainian targeting. Regardless of the details, Russia now has carte blanche to make the statement that the U.S. has yet again become more directly involved in the expansion of the conflict. Russia likewise now would be well justified (within international norms) in the arming of adversaries of the United States, as Russia has hinted at recently. Considering the growing list of groups hostile to American citizens, including those already inside the United States, the means by which Russia could apply pressure to the United States could vary widely. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z June 24, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: RUSSIAN CIVILIANS KILLED IN UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON SEVASTOPOL. TERROR ATTACKS STRIKE DAGESTAN. SOCIAL DISORDER IN THE WEST HIGHLIGHTS GROWING CONCERNS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Overnight a Ukrainian missile strike targeted Sevastopol Naval Base, allegedly with US-supplied ATACMS missiles. As Russian forces intercepted the missiles, many civilians on the beach in the vicinity of Russian military positions were killed as debris fell on them. So far, dozens have been reported killed, along with hundreds wounded (though numbers are hard to verify). AC: At this time, it does not appear that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians on the beach in this specific instance (as this would be ill-advised from a military targeting perspective, in addition to the obvious humanitarian concerns). However, this is unlikely to matter much in the end; civilians killed via the debris and/or mis-directed warheads resulting from a successful interception are certain to be treated as combat casualties by Russia. This follows general unrest in Dagestan. Several terror attacks have taken place throughout the semi-autonomous district of Russia, continuing the long history of violence in the region. This latest escalation has come following Islamic terror groups targeting religious institutions throughout the region. AC: Casualty data is hard to verify, however varying sources claim the death toll has reached 20x fatalities during this latest series of terror attacks. Apart from this figure, allegedly 5x attackers are also deceased following the attacks themselves and/or the counterterrorism operation launched in the hours after the attacks. Germany: A woman has reportedly been convicted of varying hate crimes following her comments regarding an extremely graphic 2020 assault case involving a young girl and almost a dozen men (all of which are of Middle Eastern descent or otherwise were immigrants to Germany). As a reminder of the details of this landmark (and disturbing) case, 8 of the 9 perpetrators saw zero jail time whatsoever, only probation. One is serving a two year sentence. All 9 were convicted of the acts via DNA evidence, the victim’s testimony, and due to the perpetrators videotaping the crimes and sharing that evidence on WhatsApp and other social media platforms. The woman who was convicted will reportedly spend several days in jail for sending allegedly hateful messages to the WhatsApp number that was disclosed as public record during the initial series of trials. AC: Though this case is largely more of a social or cultural concern, the means by which authorities are conducting themselves is worthy note for many nations today. Operationally speaking, the crackdown on outrage and dissent being prosecuted more heavily than the capital crimes themselves means that this situation (while largely specific to Germany at the moment) would be wise to consider as events unfold in other nations as well. -HomeFront- Arizona: A man was killed in Phoenix when trying to fix his wife’s stalled vehicle in a parking lot. While working on the vehicle, it slipped off of the jack, crushing him. AC: Though a tragic accident, the most disturbing element of the incident is that the victim’s corpse was reportedly violated by bystanders, who looted everything from the dying man’s pockets and from the vehicle that crushed him. Looters also stole an additional vehicle at the scene (also owned by the victim). The victim’s body remained pinned under the vehicle for approximately 2 hours, until other bystanders eventually called the authorities. -----END TEARLINE-----

This week's Intel Update is out! https://youtu.be/gFa4nurIVVs

//The Wire//2330Z June 21, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING CONTINUES TO ADAPT IN RED SEA. DOD FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR FUNDING SENT TO CHINESE LABORATORIES RESEARCHING PATHOGENS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Growing concern has been expressed by various world powers regarding the increasing potential for an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. AC: While the Israeli military claims that the military and logistical preparations have been completed for a military operation within Lebanon, a political decision as to such has not yet been released to the public. Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful strike on the M/V TUTOR, Houthi forces have increased attempts to target commercial shipping via unmanned watercraft. Over the past few days, CENTCOM has claimed to have destroyed several such Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), though it is not clear as to if this targeting was successful, or if it was conducted as an immediate defense against operationally deployed craft. AC: Of note, the strike carried out on the TUTOR did not involve the more advanced weaponry known to be within the Houthi Order of Battle (OOB). The Houthis have at least several different variants of USV, purpose built for attacking commercial shipping. However, the first successful use of a USV by the Houthis during this conflict was via the conversion of a standard fishing skiff, complete with the deception tactic of using mannequins by which to close with the intended target undetected. This may pose a unique challenge for American forces, who many not easily discern such USVs from legitimate fishing vessels (whereas the dedicated USVs are very easily identifiable military targets, even from a considerable distance). -HomeFront- USA: Car dealerships around North America continue to suffer the widening impacts of a cyberattack that occurred a few days ago. CDK Global, the provider of the software used by most car dealerships to manage inventory, conduct sales, etc, was rendered ineffective by a ransomware cyberattack which resulted in the company taking most of their systems offline. Washington D.C. – The DoD Office of Inspector General publicly released their report (Dated June 18) regarding the limitations of DoD systems to track the funding allocated by the DoD to Chinese research laboratories conducting research on “pathogens of pandemic potential”. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: It is not clear as to if the Pentagon failing to provide funding data for how much tax revenue was sent to Chinese research labs was done out of malice, incompetence, or both, but the end result is a lack of surprise on the part of the American taxpayer in any case. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z June 20, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: LONDON STANSTED AIRPORT ATTACKED BY CLIMATE ACTIVISTS. PUTIN CONTINUES TOUR OF SOUTHEAST ASIA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: The perimeter of Stansted Airport in London was breached yesterday afternoon by climate activists who cut through fencing to vandalize several aircraft with paint. Far East: Russia’s state visit to North Korea concludes as both parties conduct various diplomatic commitments towards increasing relations. Of note, North Korea and Russia signed a mutual defense pact, with each guaranteeing the other of mutual support in the event one party is attacked. -HomeFront- California: Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao’s residence was reportedly raided by the FBI (and allegedly other various agencies) this morning. AC: The reasons for the raid are not clear, however it may be pertinent to note that Mayor Thao is currently facing a recall election as her constituents have raised enough support to clear the threshold for a recall vote to be made in November. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though the practicality of Russia’s defense pact with North Korea is likely more of a gesture than a true military pact, this does signal the increasing relations that North Korea has with Russia, along with highlighting the tepid relations North Korea has with China. Putin’s next state visit is to Vietnam, where his warm reception was met with ire from the United States. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z June 19, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE ON KOREAN PENINSULA. ATTACKS CONTINUE ON U.K. INFRASTRUCTURE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: Attacks on critical infrastructure continue. A few days ago, self-described “direct actionists” infiltrated a facility in Kent that is allegedly a wholly-owned subsidiary of Elbit Systems, a major Israeli defense company known for their production of night vision equipment. After gaining entry to the facility, the pro-Palestine infiltrators destroyed a substantial amount of equipment within the factory. This comes a few weeks after similar efforts were allegedly made to cut the power/data cables to the facility. Far East: Russia’s state visit to North Korea continues amid increasing border tensions in the South. -HomeFront- Massachusetts: 911 call center services throughout the state have reportedly been restored. No cause for yesterday’s outage has been provided. Illinois: A large fire broke out at a pallet manufacturing facility in West Town, Chicago. The multiple-alarm fire totally consumed the facility. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the past few weeks, South Korea has accused the North of incursions into the Demilitarized Zone between the two nations. Satellite imagery over the past few months has indicated land clearance operations in some areas within the DMZ. Yesterday, South Korea allegedly observed the explosion of several landmines, possibly injuring or killing North Korean soldiers working within the DMZ. This follows several days of questionable skirmishes along with border, by which North Korean soldiers allegedly fired off a few small arms rounds toward South Korea, before running away. As is typical of the Korean conflict, these claims are made solely by the government of South Korea and therefore cannot be independently verified with any accuracy. These border tensions, while not completely out of the ordinary considering the history of the Korean peninsula, are still likely to cause concern in the west, especially considering the timing of such incidents occurring nearly simultaneously with Russia’s state visit. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z June 18, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PUTIN VISITS NORTH KOREA. 911 CALL CENTERS OFFLINE IN MASSACHUSETTS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: The M/V TUTOR has sunk in the southern Red Sea. Far East: Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in North Korea for an official state visit. This is Putin’s second visit to North Korea, the first visit occurring 24 years ago. -HomeFront- Massachusetts: 911 call center services are reportedly offline throughout the state. In the event of an incident requiring emergency services, locals are advised to contact their local police or fire stations directly while the outage continues. AC: No word yet on what caused the outage, however several emergency alert messages were sent to additional surrounding states in error. So far, only the Massachusetts 911 system is affected. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Putin’s rare visit occurs as both Russia and North Korea seek to begin a new era of improving relations, and begin a new era of international diplomacy: Putin seeking to move past the Ukrainian war and challenge NATO’s hegemony in Europe, while the Kim dynasty seeks to maintain control over their population in an environment where technology alone has increasingly created difficulties in maintaining the image of the DPRK to her people. The actions of both Russia and North Korea highlight that while the United States has famously worked towards a “Pacific Pivot”, or a shift in military attention away from desert wars in the Middle East, in favor of growing tensions in the Far East, this shift in priorities is not exclusive to the United States. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z June 17, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TWO MERCHANT SHIPS CONTINUE SINKING DUE TO HOUTHI TARGETING. DOMESTIC U.S. CULTURAL VIOLENCE CONTINUES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of commercial shipping continues. Regarding the recent successful strikes in the region, the status of the struck vessels is as follows: M/V TUTOR – Adrift in the Red Sea, last known grid: 37PHR16438659. Crew abandoned ship due to uncontrolled flooding, vessel is sinking. M/V VERBENA – Adrift in the Gulf of Aden, last known grid: 38PLU49640407. Crew abandoned ship due to uncontrolled fires and flooding, vessel is sinking. AC: It is not clear as to if either the crew of either stricken vessel dropped anchor prior to abandoning ship. If so, this could present internet connectivity problems if a dropped anchor snags an undersea communications cable. As a reminder, though these details have not been verified, this exact situation possibly caused internet connectivity problems throughout the continent of Africa during the sinking of the M/V RUBYMAR under similar conditions in March. Both the TUTOR and the VERBENA are located in the vicinity of undersea communications cables, though the exact coordinates of which are a closely guarded secret. -HomeFront- USA: Multiple small arms engagements were reported around the nation over the weekend. Summaries of the most high-profile engagements are as follows: • West Virginia: Mass casualty incident following family reunion event in Princeton in which two family members engaged one another. 4x bystanders sustained GSWs. • Michigan: 9x wounded during “random” shooting at a waterpark in Rochester Hills. • Texas: 2x fatalities, 13x wounded during skirmish at a Juneteenth event in Round Rock. • Massachusetts: 7x wounded during a “spontaneous car meetup” in Essex County. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite all mainstream media coverage that deliberately seeks to amplify political narratives with their reporting of “active shooter incidents”, the recent small arms engagements around the nation are overwhelmingly the result of cultural violence and not deliberate terrorism. However, a continuation of such violence is expected. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/kMzKQ-miBLc