Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 중국의 성장위기가 높아짐에 따라 금융위기 이후 처음으로 막대한 자금 규모의 주택자금대출에 대한 금리인하를 앞두고 있음. China is poised to cut interest rates on trillions of yuan of outstanding home mortgages for the first time since the global financial crisis, as policymakers dig deeper into their toolkit to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

US stocks rose, posting the first back-to-back gains this month, with the S&P 500 staying above the key 4,400 level.

Bottom-line: 중국은 세계에서 최악의 성과를 보인 주식시장이란 오명을 벗어나고자 갖은 부양책과 세제 혜택을 썼음. 월요일 중국 지수는 이런 노력에 5.5% 상승해 시작했지만, 장 종료 시점에 1.2%의 상승만 남기고 모두 반납함. 기록적인 외국인 투자자 유출 또한 지속되며, 중국에는 이보다 더 강력한 바주카포 같은 정책이 필요함을 시사함. Markets Show China Needs a Stimulus ‘Bazooka’ to Woo Investors. Chinese stocks started Monday by surging after authorities took a raft of steps to bring investors back to one of the world’s worst-performing equity markets. But most of the gains were gone by the end of the session, with foreign funds extending what’s set to be a record outflow this month. Opening with a 5.5% pop in response to weekend measures that included the first cut in stamp duty since 2008 as well as curbs on share sales by major stakeholders, the CSI 300 Index of onshore Chinese stocks finished just 1.2% higher.

China's latest revival plans. Beijing halved the stamp duty on stock trades and pledged to slow the pace of IPOs in an effort to revive confidence. The CSRC said restrictions will also be set on the frequency and size of refinancing for some firms, with property developers exempted from the rule. Meanwhile, Hong Kong plans a task force to boost liquidity. Chinese industrial profits weakened.

Bye.

나스닥 100 지수 선물, +1%.

내용을 보자면 현재의 높은 금리를 더 오래 유지하겠다는 동시에 언젠가 또 한 번의 금리인상이 있다고 말하는 바지만(That’s all an endorsement of higher-for-longer, as well as holding out the threat of another hike.), 최근 몇 주간 상승해 온 채권 금리를 볼 때 이 또한 놀랄만한 일이 아님(there doesn’t appear to be much marginal surprise there.). *POWELL: MAY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER DRAG FROM PAST HIKES *POWELL: REAL RATES POSITIVE, WELL ABOVE MOST NEUTRAL ESTIMATES *POWELL: ‘WE CANNOT IDENTIFY WITH CERTAINTY’ THE NEUTRAL RATE

공개 된 연설문을 보자면 긴축을 필요할 경우 더 해야 한다는 의지를 보이고 있으나, 언제 해야 한다는 확정은 없음. 이는 이미 시장 가격에 반영 된 사항임(that has already been priced into the market.). 게다가 중립금리(R*)에 대해 그는 명확한 결론을 아직 내리지 못한 것으로 보임. 연설문의 중요 부분은 다음과 같음. *POWELL: FED PREPARED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE *POWELL: PERSISTENT ABOVE-TREND GROWTH COULD WARRANT TIGHTENING *POWELL: RESTRICTIVE POLICY UNTIL INFLATION SUSTAINABLY SLOWING *POWELL: 2% INFLATION NEEDS BELOW-TREND GROWTH, LABOR SOFTENING *POWELL: ATTENTIVE TO SIGNS ECONOMY NOT COOLING AS EXPECTED

Bottom-line: 아직 물가 목표에 완전히 도달하지 못해 해야 할 일이 많다는 것을 재차 강조함. “Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the US central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

Powell Remarks Friday at Jackson Hole

8월 17일과 8월 18일 기사와 나스닥 100 지수 선물을 보면 흥미로움.

China Ramps Up Fight With Yuan Bears to Stop Selloff Spiraling Sudden Rally in China Stocks Has Traders Scratching Their Heads 오늘 읽은 기사와 차트.