Dub Public

Watch out for a fresh BTC and market update in the coming days. The last update outlined a bearish outlook below key levels for trend continuation, which has played out through a bearish retest and SFP of the prior multi-month range, along with rejection at the developing yearly VAL and 2024 VWAP, resulting in a lower high and continuation of the broader trend. Dub

Crypto has now erased more than 50% of its value in just 8 months. For those following this channel, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. We spent much of last year discussing the probability that 2026 would be BTC’s cyclical bear market year. Once market structure shifted, the focus became simple: stop thinking like it’s still a bull market. While many remained anchored to bullish narratives and ultimately gave back a large portion of their gains, we identified the trend change early, positioned for it, and spent the year stacking stables rather than hoping for new highs. The cycle continues to rhyme. Capital preservation during the bear is what provides the ammunition to be aggressive near the next major low.

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BTC Update As outlined in the last update, BTC had completed a full rotation of yearly value from VAH to VAL and was resting on a major confluence area consisting of DY VAL, 2024 VWAP, range lows and broader market structure support. The view was straightforward: loss of that level would likely result in a move towards fresh lows. That's exactly what followed, with BTC trading roughly 10% lower before finding some relief as lower and medium timeframes became heavily oversold. This week opened with a bounce into a bearish retest of the 7D rolling VWAP (orange), which has acted as trending resistance since being lost as support above 80k. While BTC remains below the 7D rVWAP and major resistance levels above, including DY VAL, 2024 VWAP and the prior multi-month range lows, I continue to view the path of least resistance as lower. Should fresh lows be established, the 2024 VAL remains the eventual major downside target. For now, this view is supported by ongoing 5D and weekly bearish posturing, along with the broader bear market context. Alternatively, acceptance back above these key levels would open the door to a larger relief rally and a rotation back through value. Have your charts marked up with the key levels and trade triggers around reclaims and retest rejections. Will update again soon. Dub

This week marked my best trading performance of the quarter. The reason wasn’t anything complicated. As shared here in the channel, I identified the higher time frame trend shift and BTC’s local top around 83k early, positioned accordingly with meaningful size, and then let the trend do the heavy lifting. A few observations: • Markets pay in both directions. Never convince yourself that a bear market means fewer opportunities. Some of the best trading environments are sustained downtrends. • Avoid becoming permanently bullish or bearish. Bias is useful until it becomes expensive. The traders who struggled most this week were generally still aggressively bullish near the highs, which meant they not only took losses, but also missed the opportunity presented by the move lower. • Continuously challenge your own assumptions. New information should be capable of changing your view. And the same lesson applies in reverse. Don’t marry this bear trend either. Trends mature, conditions change, and eventually the market will turn again. Stay flexible. Hopefully many of you were able to use the channel’s analysis to position with the trend and capture a meaningful portion of the move. Happy trading. Dub

BTC Update Well, there we have it. A full rotation through the developing yearly value. As highlighted in recent updates, I maintained a clear bearish bias and positioning from the ~83k highs. My last update noted that while BTC remained below the recent 78k lower high, I was watching for downside continuation given the broader bear market context, persistent HTF bearish divergence, and weakening flows. Shortly after, BTC lost the developing Yearly VWAP and traded swiftly into the lows, tagging the developing Yearly VAL. That’s a roughly 20% move from top to bottom. Hopefully you were able to capitalise on it alongside me. Looking ahead, HTF posturing (5D through Weekly) remains bearish. BTC is now trading at a critical area, with the range low, developing Yearly VAL, and large range POC all clustered together. This is an important level for bulls to defend. A loss of this region and acceptance below it would significantly increase the probability of another leg lower and a move toward fresh cycle lows. Dub

Hit our developing yearly VWAP target at 74.5k almost on the dot and saw just over a 3% bounce from it. Simple key level trading if you’ve been following along. Futures reopen in around 12 hours and we potentially have some further geopolitical developments to digest too. Watching closely to see if this fades like prior headlines, or if we finally start seeing some genuine escalation/resolution. For now my HTF view remains unchanged. Still viewing this as rotational within the developing yearly VWAP range, with clear increase in spot selling and ETF outflows since trading the VAH. While price continues trading and closing below the recent 78k lower high, I remain cautious and continue watching for fresh downside continuation, supported by HTF bearish divergence and higher timeframe oscillators freshly rolling over. Will update again soon. Dub

Last weeks BTC update highlighted current highs around 83k as resistance, while the developing quarterly VAH at 79.1k was key support. It was clear that if 79.1k gave way, a downside rotation toward yearly VWAP around 74.5k was likely. Well, support broke and BTC has since delivered a clean 6% move lower, now closely approaching that yearly VWAP target. Hopefully some of you managed to catch a solid trade alongside me. I remain short positioned for now, as HTF pressure still points down. We continue to see persistent Coinbase spot selling, while both the 5D and weekly bearish divergences continue to play out. Keep a close eye on the key levels below for either signs of exhaustion and slowing, or acceptance lower and continuation of the broader bear trend. I’ll try get a fresh BTC & market update out before the new trading week. Dub

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Quick note: I’m travelling at the moment with no laptop, so no MMT or other comprehensive market data access currently. Working entirely from my phone for now, which is why today’s posts are mostly TradingView & Coinglass screenshots. Thanks for bearing with me. Dub

Now to current PA. BTC has now taken a significant amount of upper-side liquidity, reaching yearly VAH alongside the 200D EMA. If current highs are accepted above, there is still room toward 84-85k, which would close the late January CME gap and also aligns with previous quarter VAH / CME yearly VAH confluence. For now though, current highs near 83k and yearly VAH remain resistance, and BTC still appears rotational within developing yearly value. 79.1k, the developing quarterly VAH, is immediate support below. Lose that and BTC likely rotates back toward yearly VWAP around 74.5k. Below that, acceptance deeper back into yearly value would open the door for a much larger retracement. CPI this week, so expect volatility. Have your key levels marked and know your trade triggers beforehand instead of reacting emotionally once price starts moving. Will update again soon. Dub

Since early April, BTC has rotated almost 30% from yearly VAL back into yearly VAH. A significant bounce, and naturally many are now calling for “new bull market” and “bottom is in.” For us though, we simply trade the technicals and key levels. But it’s still important to remain level headed and keep broader context in mind. Historically, every BTC 4-year cycle has included an extended bear market phase, and each of those bear markets also saw strong counter-trend rallies that convinced many the lows were already in before eventually breaking down again later in the cycle. 2014: +45% rally before another -72% 2018: +43% rally before another -62% 2022: +29% rally before another -35% 2026 so far: +30% from lows That does NOT mean BTC must repeat history here. Markets are probabilistic, not predictive. But it does mean traders should remain aware of the possibility instead of becoming emotionally anchored to one narrative too early. On the other hand, if BTC is able to reclaim and accept above the 85k region, then we may have a meaningful deviation from prior cyclical behaviour and shift in market structure.

The beginning of a new trading week and judging by the response, plenty of you want a BTC update. Should be another eventful week across markets, so keep an eye out. I’ll drop a full breakdown later today. Dub

We’ve had an eventful few weeks of PA. BTC continued the grind higher toward the late Jan CME gap and has now made contact with both the 200D EMA and developing yearly VAH. Important areas here. If you’d like a detailed update covering the key levels and triggers I’m personally watching from here, engage with this post and I’ll put it together. Last time the interest was pretty underwhelming, so it simply didn’t justify the time spent putting together a full breakdown. Dub

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Another active week ahead as markets continue to show relative strength. CME futures reopened a few hours ago, with traditional markets set to follow later today. This is typically where volume and direction start to build for the week. Watch for the next BTC / market update.

As always, last week’s update laid out the key levels and triggers clearly. That pivot held and delivered a clean move from 74k into ~80k highs. Solid rotation. Hope you were positioned for it. Weekend is slow as expected. Use the time to reset. Futures reopen Sunday, which typically brings volume back into the market and sets the tone for the week ahead. If you want a fresh full breakdown heading into the new week, engage with the post and let me know. If the interest is there, I’ll put the time into it and drop the update. Dub

BTC As outlined in the early week update, the 74k pivot held cleanly as support. That acceptance drove price through the upside targets: CME gap, prior highs, and now into the 2024 VAH we’ve had marked for months. ~8% move spot from the level. If you executed around that plan, this was a clean rotation through liquidity. Above here, there’s still a pocket of liquidity that could get swept. However, after an extended move into a major HTF level, risk-reward shifts. Taking significant profits here is the higher probability play. I’ll map next scenarios in a fresh update soon. Dub