QCP Broadcast

QCP Asia and Europe Colour - 14 May 24 - Spot came off for BTC and is now hovering at 61.8k, right in the middle of the range from yesterday's highs (63.5k) and last Friday's lows (60.1k). - We expect Powell's speech tonight to be carefully worded as always, resulting in a muted market reaction. - On the other hand, CPI numbers tomorrow may be the catalyst to finally help the market pick a direction. - While the general market continues to drift off into the summer, GME has emerged after a long slumber, pumping 80+% yesterday off the back of Roaring Kitty's tweet. 🙀 -Could this be the start of a memecoin frenzy? Trade Idea: Utilize our ZCC to receive upfront yields on your dollars for punting memecoins. BTC ZCC (USD deployment) Receive upfront payment of 25% p.a. upon deployment At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 47k, 100% of the principal is returned. If BTC spot is below 47k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 57k level. Maturity: 9AUG24 (12 weeks) Strike: 57,000 Protection Level: 47,000 Upfront Payment: 25% p.a.

QCP Asia / Europe Colour - 13 May 24 - Spot has recovered most of Friday's losses. (the 5% drop to 60k on Friday was triggered by hawkish Fed comments). - We think price action could chop around here as the market digests fundamentals from the several macro events lined up this week: Tue: US PPI, Powell to speak Wed: CPI, Retail Sales Thu: Unemployment Claims - Given the strong bounce from last week's lows, 60k still seems like a strong support level barring any hawkish surprises (BTC risk reversals are at neutral levels) - Overall, the desk still remains structurally bullish BTC even as spot continues to consolidate here while the market gets more clarity from the Fed. - Options flows today saw buyers of BTC Jun topside (65k) and BTC Dec topside (90k-100k strikes) Trade Idea: With Spot-Forward Basis yields still in the single digits, you can still generate decent >20% yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Indicative example below: BTC UFCC (USD deployment) (spot ref: 63,000) Earn a weekly coupon of 22%pa. At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 50k, 100% of the principal is returned. If BTC spot is below 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level. Maturity: 12JUL24 (8 weeks) Strike: 55,000 Protection Level: 50,000 Coupon Rate: 22% p.a.

QCP London / New York Colour – 10 May 24 - Vols continue to drag as prices fail to break out of the narrow range (BTC May into the 40s and ETH May in the mid 50s). - We are leaning on two possible bullish factors from here into year-end: 1. US elections will conclude in Nov this year and historically markets tend to be bullish into elections. Specific to this election, Trump has been making crypto-friendly overtures which could illicit a a similar tone from Biden as both try to win the crypto vote. Could this result in crypto-positive rhetoric as the respective campaigns get underway? 2. Unless the Fed clearly rules out rate cuts or hints at rate hikes, it seems like the markets will continue to price in cuts especially on the back of any signs of the US economy slowing down and with other Central Banks cutting as well. These expectations are likely to keep a bullish tone in the market for awhile. Trade Idea: Updating levels from yesterday's suggested strategy which we think offers good downside protection for high convexity on the topside for zero cost! (spot ref: 63k) BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x) Cost: ZERO Max payout: $100,000 per BTC notional Put Strike: 60,000 Protection Level: 50,000 Call Strike: 70,000 Call Knockout: 120,000 Collateral requirement: $60k per BTC notional What does it mean? At expiry, 1. If spot is just under 120k, your profit is $100k (120k-70k) x2 2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call 3. If spot is anywhere between 50k and 70k or above 120k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money 4. If spot is below 50k, you will buy BTC at 60k

QCP London / New York Colour - 9 May 24 - The US Dollar is inching higher again, placing a cap on risk assets including crypto. - The Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%. This follows the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which cut earlier in March and the ECB is also expected to cut in June. - The USD is rallying as the market prices out expectations that other Central Banks will wait for the Fed to cut before following, especially as economic performance and inflation levels continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world. - Markets are currently pricing in 2 Fed cuts this year, with the first cut only expected in Sep. - To make things worse, BTC spot ETF flows have flattened out again after strong inflows from last Friday and the recent Monday. - The desk is not seeing any bearish panic but more trades that express a lower volatility, consolidation view. Trade Ideas: We remain structurally positive BTC into the end of the year and on this dip we like topside strategies that provide the best risk-reward. The following uses the enhanced upfront yield from ZCC to buy double the topside exposure from ERKO calls. Unleveraged with protection on the downside while ramping up returns on the topside. (spot ref: 61k) BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x) Cost: ZERO Max payout: $80,000 per BTC notional Put Strike: 55,000 Protection Level: 45,000 Call Strike: 70,000 Call Knockout: 110,000 Collateral requirement: $55k per BTC notional What does it mean? At expiry, 1. If spot is just under 110k, your profit is $80k (110k-70k) x2 2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call 3. If spot is anywhere between 45k and 70k or above 110k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money 4. If spot is below 45k, you will buy BTC at 55k

QCP NY Colour - 8 May 24 - In this quiet market, we've probably seen the most action in the vol spread between BTC and ETH. - BTC May vols have been driven below 50% while ETH has been driven higher close to 60%. - The logical reason for this is the market pricing in volatility over the ETH spot ETF approval announcements. Flow-wise, we've seen a few large punters buying very short-term (less than 2-week) ETH calls and puts in around 10,000 ETH notionals trying to catch the breakout of the range. We're also seeing familiar ETH call over-writers buying back end-May calls in size. - Overall, nothing particularly meaningful as the market grinds in a narrowing range, Trade Ideas: We still like to collect more BTC at deep discounts while the market consolidates with Accumulators. BTC Accumulator (20-weeks) Buy BTC spot at 15% discount (53,000 level) every Friday observation, as long as spot price is under 66k. (spot ref: 62.3k)

QCP Announcement - 8 May 24 We have received In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)! We announced today that we have received In-Principle Approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to conduct regulated activities. We are also the first digital assets market maker and broker-dealer firm from Singapore to achieve this IPA 🎉 Read more in our press release: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/press-release-qcp-receives-in-principle-approval-in-the-abu-dhabi-global-market-adgm/

QCP NY Colour - 6 May 24 - We are seeing some bullish follow-through in vol and rates following the reversal bounce from Friday and into the weekend: 1. BTC risk reversals have gone positive (calls more expensive than puts) 2. Renewed demand for BTC Sep 75k & 100k calls 3. BTC forward yields in BTC back above 10% - ETH is not seeing the same kind of positivity with risk reversals still at -4% likely due to concerns about the SEC not approving the ETH spot ETF deadlines for VanEck and Ark21 on 23 and 24 May. - However, this does mean the market would be caught offside on ETH if there was a surprise approval. Worth a topside bet perhaps? Trade idea: We still prefer a structurally bullish BTC trade with significant downside protection and exponential return on the topside. (spot ref: 63k) Sell ERKI + Buy ERKO (27 Dec) Cost: ZERO Max payout: $48,000 per BTC notional - Sell 50k Put with 40k Knock-In - Buy 75k Call with 123k Knock-Out What does all this mean? At expiry, 1. If spot is just under 123k, your profit is $48k (123k-75k) 2. As long as spot if above 75k, there is profit. 3. If spot is anywhere between 40k and 75k, nothing happens (no loss, no profit) 4. Even if spot is below the 50k Put, there will be no loss as the Put is only live if spot expires below 40k protection level. 5. If spot is below 40k, you will buy BTC at 50k.

QCP Weekend Macro - 4 May 24 - Friday's US data releases provided a big bullish boost to markets. A quick follow-on to the dovish FOMC and QRA which lifted prices off the lows just the day before. - Employment data was weaker than expected across the board which dampens the fear of rising inflation (Non-Farm Payrolls at 175k v 240k, Unemployment Rate at 3.9% v 3.8%, Average Hourly Earnings MoM was 0.2% v 0.3%). - The stars are aligning with both the Fed and Treasury leaning dovish plus weaker data, which reopens the path for rates cuts this year. - US 2-Year Yields collapsed from over 5% to almost 4.7%! Does this mark the end of the rampaging USD Dollar rally? - The crypto markets loved this, especially the BTC spot ETFs which saw net inflows across the board totalling $378.3m. Even GBTC posting a positive inflow number for the first time! Trade Ideas: Dont fight the Fed. The Bullish ERKO Seagull strategy suggested Thursday is already in-the-money. If you think the bull market has resumed and would still like to buy BTC or ETH below the recent lows of 56.5k and 2814, you can still do so with Accumulators. BTC Accumulators (spot ref: 63.5k) 1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry) Buy BTC at 52k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 73k. 2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry) Buy BTC at 55k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 70k. ETH Accumulators (spot ref: 3,100) 1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry) Buy ETH at 2500 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660. 2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry) Buy ETH at 2700 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660. *Please check in your trading chat for details and strategy customisations.

QCP London & New York Colour - 2 May 24 - Both FOMC and QRA were more dovish than expected. - At FOMC, Powell said that the Fed is not looking to hike rates and announced the slowing of Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60bn monthly to $25bn. - For QRA, the Treasury will keep issuances for longer maturities unchanged, reducing fears of a spike in longer-term yields. - This should help to push down the USD rally which is positive for risk assets. - BTC has bounced off the 56.5k low and has decisively broke above 58k. ETH has rallied close to 3k again. - Will we now see a resumption of the bull market? Trade Ideas: Zero-cost strategy for max upside on a big bounce in spot price! (spot ref: BTC 58.5k) Bullish ERKO Seagull Expiry: 31-May Strikes: Sell 56k Put + Buy 60k Call (75k Knock-out) Cost: ZERO Max payout: $15,000 per BTC or 337% pa if BTC spot price is just under 75k at expiry. [Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 56k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 56k price.

QCP LDN / NY Colour - 1 May 24 - The US Dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything. - USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well. - Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse. - There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it. - Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip. - Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end) it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally. Trade Idea: If you think we've already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection. (spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910) BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks) Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level). Threshold: 55k Strike: 50k Protection: 45k At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price. ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks) Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level). Threshold: 2,800 Strike: 2,500 Protection: 2,200 At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.