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US, Iran Extend Pause in Strikes as Oman Holds Hormuz Talks.mp31.94 MB
The dominant theme from this report is US dollar strength. Rising oil prices have lifted inflation expectations and Treasury yields, increasing expectations for additional Fed tightening while boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar. Most other G10 central banks are either on hold or have already priced in expected tightening, leaving the USD as the strongest major currency. The JPY remains the weakest, as the report argues that USD/JPY is driven more by US yields than by incremental BOJ policy changes. That combination favors selling most USD-quoted pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) and buying USDJPY, USDCAD, and USDCHF, while maintaining a generally bearish outlook on gold as long as US yields and the dollar continue to rise.
