₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈

📅 Key Market Events to watch this week 🚨 This week has a few important US data points that investors will be watching. Main ones: US Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes Initial Jobless Claims 10-Year and 30-Year bond auctions After the weaker jobs report, markets will be looking for clues on whether the US economy is cooling gradually or slowing too fast. Bond auctions and Fed minutes also matter because they can move Treasury yields. Expect markets to react more strongly to economic data in the short term. When investors are unsure about growth and interest rates, even one data release can shift sentiment quickly.

🛢 Drivers have Cut Back on Premium Gas since the Iran War Began 🚫 The Iran war’s fuel price shock has pushed American drivers to make real sacrifices at the pump. Sales of premium gasoline fell nearly 5% by volume in late June compared to pre-war levels, while regular gas sales rose about 10%, as drivers across income levels trade down to cheaper fuel grades to cut costs. The 90-cent spread between premium and regular gas has hit an all-time high, with regular averaging $3.81 a gallon and premium at $4.70. Analysts expect that gap could widen to a dollar by year-end even as crude prices ease. Automakers have been producing more vehicles that require premium gas while refiners have been slow to expand higher-octane production capacity.

📉 US hiring is slowing down 🇺🇸 The US added only 57,000 jobs in June, below almost every economist’s forecast. After a few months of stronger hiring, this is a sign that the labour market may finally be cooling. The participation rate also fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than 5 years. Why markets care: A weaker jobs report usually gives the Fed more reason to pause, or eventually cut rates, because the economy may not be as strong as before. This is not automatically “bad news”. For investors, a softer labour market can actually be good if it lowers interest rate pressure without triggering a recession. The key thing to watch is whether this is a one-off weak report, or the start of a real slowdown.

🚨🚨 Starting 1 July 2026, the SRS withdrawal age will increase from 63 ➡️ 64. 👉 If you open your SRS account and make your FIRST contribution by TODAY, you'll lock in your withdrawal age at 63 permanently. It literally takes 2 minutes: 1️⃣ Open your DBS / UOB / OCBC app 2️⃣ Search "SRS Account" 3️⃣ Open the account 4️⃣ Transfer just $1 (yes, $1 is enough) 💰 Why bother? ✅ Every dollar you contribute reduces your taxable income (subject to the annual SRS contribution cap). ✅ You get 1 extra year of withdrawal flexibility in retirement. ✅ Even if you don't plan to use SRS now, locking in the earlier withdrawal age costs almost nothing. https://www.dbs.com.sg/personal/support/bank-account-srs-account-opening.html https://www.ocbc.com/personal-banking/investments/supplementary-retirement-scheme-account https://www.uob.com.sg/personal/invest/srs-account.page I genuinely think this is one of those "future you will thank you" moves. ⏰ Deadline: TODAY (30 June) before the banks' cut-off / end of day.

📈 Memory Chip Prices are exploding, and AI is the reason ⌨️ DDR5 memory chip prices have increased by more than 4x over the past year. This is why companies like Apple and Microsoft are raising prices on products like Macs, iPads and Xbox consoles. The simple reason: AI needs a lot of memory chips. After the pandemic, the chip industry had too much supply, so manufacturers cut back on capacity investment. But just as supply was being reduced, AI demand started exploding. Now the remaining memory chip producers are in a very strong position: Demand is high. Supply is tight. Customers are desperate. Prices are rising. Micron’s CEO said there is “no line of sight” to when supply will catch up with demand, with meaningful improvement unlikely before 2028. Even with huge investments coming: - Samsung is expected to announce a US$651 billion investment package over the next decade - SK Hynix plans to double capacity over five years - TSMC is spending US$56 billion on capex this year - Micron is building new factories in Idaho and New York Chip prices may still stay elevated through at least 2027.... AI is not only pushing Nvidia higher. It is also pushing up the cost of memory, devices, servers and electronics. The AI boom is becoming an inflation story too.

📦 US trade deficit widens: AI demand is quietly pulling in more imports ✈️ The US goods trade deficit widened sharply in May to US$105.8 billion. That was much higher than the US$85 billion economists expected, and the biggest shortfall in more than a year. Why did it happen? Two things: Exports fell 5.4%, partly because oil shipments pulled back after April’s surge. Imports rose 3.6% to the highest level since early 2025. The interesting part is what the US is importing. Capital goods imports: including semiconductors, computers and telecom equipment — are up nearly 42% from a year ago. In simple terms: the AI infrastructure boom is not just a tech story. It is also showing up in trade data. More data centres, chips, servers and telecom equipment = more imported capital goods. Strong domestic demand and AI investment are supporting growth, but they also widen the trade deficit. And because trade deficits subtract from GDP calculations, this becomes another quiet headwind for the US economy. Source: Hump Days / Bloomberg

📊 AI stocks now represent 39% of the S&P 500. #justsayin

🇺🇸 US stocks are near highs, but traders are buying protection 🛡 The S&P 500 has risen in 11 of the past 12 weeks and is now less than 2% away from its all-time high. US equity funds also saw a record US$119 billion of inflows in just one week. On the surface, this looks very bullish. But underneath, traders are starting to hedge. The ratio of VIX call options to puts has climbed to the highest level this year. In simple terms, more traders are paying for protection in case volatility spikes. The concern is not that the market is weak today. The concern is that valuations are stretched at the same time the macro backdrop is becoming less friendly. The AI rally has added roughly US$10 trillion in S&P 500 value since late March, pushing mega-cap tech valuations higher. That leaves less room for disappointment. The next key test is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE report. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, markets may need to reprice the “everything is fine” narrative. When stocks are near highs and hedging demand is also rising, it usually means investors are still participating, but they are getting nervous, hence allocating into undervalued sectors might be an option worth considering.. Source: Hump Days / Bloomberg

💵 The US dollar is getting stronger again 💪 The US dollar has climbed to its strongest level since November, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising to a 7-month high. That's cuz markets are starting to price in the possibility that the Fed may still need to hike rates again. Traders now expect almost two 0.25% rate hikes by early 2027, while demand for options protecting against further dollar upside has hit the highest level in over a year. This matters because a stronger dollar is not just a “currency thing”. It can hurt US companies that earn money overseas, because foreign revenue translates back into fewer US dollars. It can also pressure emerging markets, especially countries and companies that borrow in USD. Simple takeaway: A stronger dollar usually means financial conditions are tightening. So even if stocks are still near highs, the currency market is quietly saying: “don’t get too comfortable yet.” Source: Hump Days / Bloomberg

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Interesting read … and also a PSA to all investors to stay safe pls

🚨 BLOODBATH in Asian Markets 🌏 Over $800 BILLION wiped out from Asian stock markets in just a few hours amid a massive tech stocks sell-off. South Korea's KOSPI down -8.2%, wiping out over ₩587,000,000,000,000 ($426 BILLION). Japan's NIKKEI down 2.8%, wiping out approximately ¥32,500,000,000,000 ($217 BILLION). TAIWAN's stock market down -3.5%, erasing NT$161,000,000,000,000 ($154 BILLION).

🚀 SpaceX has CRASHED over -30% from its all-time high in just one week ↘️ The selloff has erased nearly -$1 TRILLION in market value, including -$250 BILLION today after shares tanked -16%... Elon Musk's net worth has DECREASED by over -$420 BILLION as $SPCX continues to decline from its all-time high 🔥🤯

Hope those that got in … got out 💪🏻🥲🫡

🤡🤡🤡🤡 JD Vance on Iran: I am very confident that we can maintain this ceasefire. Source: Fox News

💧BREAKING: Hormuz Closed, Iran Strikes Back Over US and Israel Violations 🚨 Iran's military has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing US violations of the war-ending MOU and Israel's continued strikes in southern Lebanon.

🇺🇸 One Dot Missing from the Fed’s Famous ‘Dot Plot’ 🔴 The Fed’s dot plot, the quarterly chart where 19 policymakers anonymously plot their interest rate expectations, has been a cornerstone of how investors read the central bank’s intentions since 2011. But at his first press conference as Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh declined to submit his own forecast, calling the tool unhelpful for conducting policy. He signaled that a broader review of Fed communications later this year could reshape or eliminate the dot plot, press conferences, and other guidance tools altogether. Warsh has long been a critic of “forward guidance” generally, arguing the Fed should provide markets with less explicit signaling about future rate paths. For investors, this matters because the dot plot has long served as one of the clearest windows into Fed thinking beyond the immediate rate decision. Its potential phase-out introduces a new layer of uncertainty just as the committee is navigating one of its most consequential pivots in years, from rate cuts toward potential hikes. If Warsh follows through on reshaping Fed communications, markets may need to rely more heavily on Fed officials’ public speeches and meeting minutes to gauge the path of rates, a shift that could increase volatility around Fed announcements in the months ahead.

🔥 Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Meeting: A Hawkish Pivot Toward Rate Hikes 🤑 In Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chairman, the Fed held its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a unanimous vote. But the accompanying projections told the real story: nine of 19 officials now see at least one rate hike this year, up from zero in March, while only one expects a cut, down from twelve. Warsh struck a hawkish tone despite the political awkwardness, declaring “this committee will deliver price stability” and downplaying the hike forecasts as lacking strong conviction among his colleagues. Markets reacted swiftly: Treasury yields jumped, the dollar rallied, and stocks fell, with traders now fully pricing in a rate hike by October. The reversal reflects how dramatically the economic backdrop has shifted since the start of the year. Inflation forecasts for 2026 jumped sharply as core inflation projections rose to 3.3% from 2.7% in March, driven by the Iran war’s energy shock. News of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal has already pulled oil prices down, and if it holds, could ease some of the energy-driven inflation pressure weighing on the outlook.