#Bitcoin - What's Next?
The big Sunday report, all you need to know:
🚩 TA/LCA/Psychological Analysis:
A New Bottom Formation: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has recently hit its lowest level in 18 months, showing a huge shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI has reacheded the lowest level in a year, In my opinion Bitcoin is establishing a local bottom. It is important to repeat that the $57,000 - $60,000 range is the range area for bottom formation. While wicks below this range to hunt for liquidity cannot be ruled out, any dips are VERY LIKELY to be bought up VERY FAST! For this, we continue to watch the box and local bottom area is forming between $57,000 and $60,000.
WARNING: Mt. Gox FUD❗️
It is important to understand the situation regarding the Mt. Gox FUD. Out of the total 141,000 BTC, only 65,000 BTC will return to retails, while the remaining BTC been purchased by institutions. These institutions have contacted retails, offering to buy their BTC at a fixed rate. Once these BTC are released, they will go to institutions that have not really an interest in selling their holdings immediately. This lowers the risk of a massive sell-off. The media will cause fear among retails and let them believe that 141,000 BTC will be released on spot to retails that are ready to sell, but only 65,000 will be releasted to retails!
Regarding the 65,000 BTC being returned to retails, these people were also given the option to sell their holdings to institutions but showed little interest in doing so. So, we can expect minimal selling pressure from the retail side, remember these people hold BTC for 13 years! The FUD arround Mt. Gox appears to be artificially generated to convince retail investors that a massive sell-off is imminent, which is not the case as explained above. This FUD serves as a manipulation tactic to create a bearish sentiment before the market resumes its upward movements. Market always loves to spread FUD during a massive box formation, as predicted back then in March 2024..
Miner Capitulation and followed Bull Markets:
It is also important to remember that we are currently witnessing a miner capitulation. Historically, every miner capitulation has been followed by a huge bull market. The same scenario is very likely to happen again. Miners need to become profitable to continue mining and maintain the network. Right now miners are mining in loss! This cant continue forever and the BTC price needs to adjust itself, otherwise the difficulty will go down, and others can take over and earn BTC. The second scenario is very unlikely, so my 99% guess is that Bitcoin price will adjust above $80,000 sooner than most of people realize!
In conclusion, despite the low Fear and Greed Index and the RSI levels showing a bottom formation and with the artifical created Mt. Gox FUD, Bitcoin is ready for a big upward movement. The ongoing miner capitulation further supports this outlook. The super cylce is loading but only few understand.
Quick update on my Altcoin report from 18th of June: The ETH ETF launch wont be at 2nd of July as market expected at the beginning. Now the market expects mid July - End of July. Some other claim it can take till August! What does it change in terms of our altcoin prediction? While timing may change now, the chart and the possible next scenario remains same! Indeed, delaying the launch wont change much in my prediction. The start of altcoin bull can lag between mid July till mid August, it depends on the ETF launch date. The closer we get, the harder we pump!
In terms of calendar nothing important is going to happen this week. On 2nd of July Jerome Powell is holding a speech which will end up with informations we already know, so nothing special.
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