Clément Molin

And... another one. Last night, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces struck the 8th Russian 🇷🇺 refinery in 10 days, after multiple drones struck the Kirishi refinery This campaign has been very successful these last few days and this is a severe blow to Russia's economy despite the "diesel deal"

Russia is pushing its offensive in the east at full throttle, suffering record-high casualties, a fact confirmed by all/my sources Today, the Ukrainian "drone army" reported striking 809 Russian soldiers, 272 of whom were killed. This force is responsible for approximately one-third of Russia’s monthly losses. It is worth noting that there is a rigorous verification process in place: when a target is struck, command requires a follow-up drone overflight to confirm the outcome, which in turn earns points within the army's reward system. For several weeks now, total Russian casualties have consistently hovered between 1,500 and 2,000 per day, with roughly one-third to one-half of these being fatalities (KIA). As it does every autumn, Russia is attempting to leverage the weather conditions to advance rapidly. However, this year there is less fog and a significantly higher number of drones. Furthermore, the loss of foliage makes it easier for the Ukrainians to spot Russian soldiers attempting to infiltrate.

Between 450,000 and 600,000 Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers killed in action during the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦? Hackers have released data obtained from the Russian statistical agency, Rosstat, which categorizes deaths by type and assigns a specific code to each fatality. This data corroborates information previously provided by Mediazona and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSUA). -> The data records 450,000 military deaths. -> The current estimate stands at 504,000, and the figure could reach 550,000 to 600,000 by the end of the year -> Data for 2026 is incomplete, as there is a time lag in the recording process It is important to keep in mind that this figure of 450,000 to 600,000 deaths is only partial: -> Those reported as missing are not included (according to the "I Want to Live" project, there are at least 220,000 such cases). -> Foreign mercenaries, Ukrainians from occupied territories, and those who have sustained severe injuries or amputations are not accounted for https://rosstat-leaks.com

Last night, Ukraine 🇺🇦 strucked the 7th Russian 🇷🇺 refinery in 9 days By carrying out this intense campaign of strikes, the Ukrainians are going against D. Trump and his "energy ceasefire" proposal, all while Russia is bombing Ukrainian power plants on a daily basis.

In short, the situation on the front is far better for Ukraine than it has been over the past three years. Kyiv has partly stabilized the front, is conducting counteroffensives in several places and is killing a record number of Russian soldiers. This is deeply worrying for Russia, which can no longer advance and is focusing on deep strikes. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling badly with homeland air defense and is taking the full brunt of attrition on its civilian, industrial and energy assets in the rear. Unable for nearly five years to defeat the Ukrainian army militarily, Russia appears to be trying to force Ukraine to capitulate through massive strikes on its rear. Support for Ukraine shows no sign of weakening, with European funding steadily replacing American funding. The war is obviously extremely costly for Ukraine, but it is also costly for Russia, which has been forced to cut spending on infrastructure, healthcare and education to cover the deficits caused by the war. The war is therefore likely to last.

Quick update on the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 This year, the situation has improved significantly for Kyiv, both on the front line and in the overall organization of military affairs. Spring and early summer brought many Ukrainian successes, most notably two counteroffensives, one at Lyman and the other in the south, which delivered substantial results through the summer and into early autumn. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces managed to halt the Russian advance toward Zaporizhzhia and slow it in the Donbas. Russian operations to create a buffer zone along the border have achieved little, except in Kharkiv Oblast, where the Russian army has advanced in the east. These successes have gone hand in hand with a reorganization of the army. The end of Syrskyi's command and the arrival of Drapatyi, who is highly regarded by the troops, have resolved some of the problems with command, corruption and the use of assault troops. The change has notably helped stabilize the situation in the Sloviansk direction. Ukraine has also built up a large arsenal of drones this year capable of striking Russia's mid-range rear, driving up Russian losses. Russian forces now struggle to bring men up to the front line. They are losing tens of thousands of men every month counting killed, wounded and missing, with a symbolic record of 55,000 according to Ukrainian sources, a figure that cannot be verified. These mid-range strikes reach across all the occupied territories and complicate Russian logistics. Warehouses, ammunition depots, rear bases, supply routes, ports, airfields and energy infrastructure are targeted on a very regular basis. Ukrainians have also developed new delivery systems for deep strikes inside Russia. They have hit Russian refineries more than 105 times, along with dozens of oil depots. The cost of the war for Russia has exploded this year, driven by soaring recruitment costs, the cost of Ukrainian strikes and a war that drags on. Moscow is facing a real recruitment problem, which it is trying to solve not through mobilization but by setting recruitment targets for each oblast. That said, the situation is far from perfect for Ukraine. Russia keeps advancing in the Donbas by committing very large numbers of soldiers. Ukrainian forces are critically short of manpower and are still suffering too many losses. They are trying to compensate with more drones, including ground drones for logistics missions. Ukraine also has an air defense problem. It can no longer intercept Russian missiles and lacks the means to shoot down every drone. This comes as the number of Russian strikes is skyrocketing with the development of new long-range systems, starting with the Geran family: Geran-2s that saturate air defenses, camera-guided Geran-4s that carry out precision strikes, and Geran-5s, the missile-drones that hit the country's rear every day. Russia has also developed other types of missiles launched from aircraft or helicopters, such as the Banderol, Onyx and Dan-T. At the same time, the number of ballistic and cruise missile strikes is surging while Ukraine runs short of interceptors. As a result, Ukraine is facing a chaotic energy situation and has suffered heavy strikes on its road, maritime and rail logistics as well as its warehouses. Russia holds a clear advantage in this strike war, which weighs on the Ukrainian economy. This is where Ukraine is struggling the most: it lacks money and resources, its population keeps shrinking, and European funding hangs over it like a sword of Damocles.

In the last week, Ukraine 🇺🇦 hit 6 Russian 🇷🇺 refineries and one oil pumping station The strike campaign started on October 30th in Samara, continued in Ufa, Kstovo, Yaroslavl, Ryazan and Krasnodar. Compared to earlier, it seems that many drones managed to go through, and multiple critical parts of these refineries may have been hit. In general, it takes months for Russia to restart those, which is why Ukraine is following a turning strategy, hitting refineries that have been repaired. -> Despite D. Trump's brokered energy ceasefire, both Ukraine and Russia didn't stop striking each other's energy facilities, with a notable increase of strikes recently.

Update on Russia's 🇷🇺 strike campaign against Ukraine 🇺🇦 during the first 6 days of November AMK gathered data regarding reported impacts during these last few days, which allows me to make this map. You can see how hard Russia is attacking central Ukraine a lot.

My twitter account reached 140k followers 🎊🥂🍾

Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue to launch a large number of KAB guided bombs in the rear of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces in the Dobropilla direction 🔴Impacts from February to August 2026 ⚪️Impacts in September 2026 🟡Impacts in October 2026 From what I am seeing, Russia is bombing a lot west of Drujkivka and Kramatorsk, which shows that they intend to push there. Most of the KAB strikes happen far from the frontline, always in front of the most advanced infiltrated soldiers. In October, KAB impacts were recorded far from the frontline between Novodonetske and Kramatorsk.

I have created a much more precise and comprehensive map showing the number of children per woman in each European country 🇪🇺 for 2024–2025. Eurostat data does not include certain Balkan states, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus, or the United Kingdom—all of which I have added. The data is from 2024, and in some cases 2025 (France, Finland, Norway, Bulgaria, etc.), broken down by region or department. What surprises you the most?

War in the Middle East 🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 could, in all likelihood, resume once the U.S. midterm elections have concluded, for several reasons: 1️⃣ The United States failed to force Iran to capitulate in the spring, yet it has not abandoned the goal of resolving the crisis—a crisis it helped create in the region. There is uncertainty regarding future Israeli actions, further complicated by the outcome of the elections. It should be noted that the current Israeli government appears keen to continue operations in an effort to bring about the capitulation of the Iranian regime. 2️⃣ Meanwhile, Iran is suffering the consequences of the conflict, particularly on the economic front. The country is no longer able to export a portion of its resources, which has crippled its finances and intensified social pressure—the primary threat to the regime's survival. In recent months, Iran has retrieved a significant number of missile launchers and drones from its network of tunnels, ready for deployment should a conflict erupt. Furthermore, the country has received support from Russia, the full extent of which remains difficult to gauge. 3️⃣ Although the Iranian regime "won" the initial phase of the conflict by surviving—effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and inflicting lasting damage on the global economy—the country remains in a vulnerable position. Its energy infrastructure is at risk, its exports have ground to a halt, and it suffers from a critical lack of air defense systems and fighter aircraft. Militarily, the country finds itself isolated from its key allies, with the notable exception of Russia. 4️⃣ The major losers in this war are the Gulf states—Saudi Arabia (which is simultaneously facing significant difficulties in Yemen), the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain—as well as, to a lesser extent, Oman, Kuwait, and Jordan. All of them are bearing the full brunt of the halt in oil and gas exports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the bombardment of energy infrastructure. This summer, the Saudis, Pakistanis, and Turks signed the "Mecca Pact" and traveled together to Tehran to engage in negotiations. According to unconfirmed rumors, the Emiratis and Saudis may have offered large sums of cash to Iran in exchange for an end to Iranian strikes on their oil and gas facilities. ‼️ Why is a return to war likely? In both the United States and Israel, the most recent operation has left a bitter aftertaste. Iran has survived—and even emerged stronger by demonstrating its capacity to endure. Yet, a prolonged conflict would actually favor the Israelis and Americans, who are not as severely affected by the consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. However, the ongoing shock to the global economy is compelling Donald Trump to take action. Should hostilities resume, it is probable that the Americans would primarily seek the regime’s capitulation regarding its attempt to assert control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively returning the region to its pre-war status quo. I will, of course, continue to monitor the situation in the region; at present, I remain pessimistic regarding the future trajectory of oil and gas prices.

Since the beginning of November, Russia 🇷🇺 has launched more than 2,000 drones and 100 missiles against Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 energy infrastructure. The Russian objective? To trigger a total collapse of electricity, heating, and water treatment systems before winter. The Russians have been carrying out massive strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the end of September. For instance, they have hit at least 80 electrical substations—including those that connect nuclear power plants in the west to Kyiv. It is essential to understand the Russian strategy here: to break Ukraine’s energy system, thereby forcing the population to flee both their cities and the country this coming winter. This strategy of terror has been employed in recent years, and it is set to happen again this year.

During October, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched many strikes against Russia 🇷🇺 In total, around 75 strikes happened, which means the real number of drones/missiles going through is closer to 150/200. Ukraine hit oil infrastructure, military industry and airbases. This work was made with the help of @AleksAnton53599 who gathered the results of the strikes. ▫️21 strikes targeted Energy facilities ▫️13 Industries ▫️11 Military bases/airbases ▫️15 other targets, such as warehouses or data centers. In total, I have here 75 registered targets, but it is worth noting that it is only a small part of the real number of strikes. -> Mid-range strikes + strikes on ships/trucks or trains are not counted -> Multiple hits on a single target is counted as only one. The real number of hits more than 25 km from the frontline could be close to 400 this month. It means there is ~3 Russian strikes for 1 Ukrainian strike. It is very important to acknowledge that Ukrainian strikes are against very expensive and valuable targets.

These last 2 days, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large number of drone strikes using the vover of clouds against central and western Ukraine 🇺🇦. Here are all the places where bombing happened according to monitoring channels, gathered by AMK. Russia primarily focused on energy infrastructure, railway infrastructure and warehouses. Tonight, a large scale missile attack will take place in Ukraine, especially against large cities and the western part of the country. AMK's post : t.me/AMK_Mapping/39977

Last month, Russia 🇷🇺 launched thousands of drones against Ukraine 🇺🇦 (~7 000), of which approximately 1 000 hit their target For now, I have 473 geolocated strikes on my database, around half of the total real number. Above are is all the data I collected during October (it is still not complete but gives a good idea of what was attacked and when).

Last month, Ukraine's 🇺🇦 USF grouping launched 151 499 strike missions and 104 106 recon missions, hitting a total of 64 807 targets. I decided to compare the USF results with Rubikon Center numbers, Russia's 🇷🇺 main drone group (the only one publishing numbers). 80% of Rubikon's strikes are against all types of drones, while Ukrainian strikes are against multiple targets. This comparison is useful to understand what drone force priority is for each side. It's worth noting that most of the Russian strikes are not done by Rubikon but by drone teams inside units. The same applies to Ukraine : the USF is not the only one doing strikes, every unit has its own drone company. -> The USF hit 16 796 Russian soldiers last month, a third of the total claimed losses by Ukrainian forces. They claim to have killed 7 926 Russian soldiers.

In the Caucasus, Armenians 🇦🇲 and Azerbaijanis 🇦🇿 continue to strengthen their positions along the "front line." Negotiations regarding the demarcation of the shared border and a peace agreement are ongoing, though progress is quite slow. Azerbaijan continues to occupy a small portion of Armenian territory, while Armenia retains control over Azerbaijani enclaves. I have observed the preparation of numerous new routes and positions in the mountains—a trend that has persisted since 2020. 🟠Armenian positions 🇦🇲 🟢Azerbaijani positions 🇦🇿

Some key statistics regarding the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺 in October 2026: ▫️58% of the assaults directions are "undefined", those are Ukrainian attacks (which are now more numerous) ▫️52% of all Russian assaults happened in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka directions ▫️Russia conquered 51 km2 this month (highest since April 2026). ▫️Ukraine reportedly hit 54,200 Russian soldiers. This is not totally impossible, since the USF reported 16k hits on soldiers and SBU Alpha unit 2k KIA per week (reaching 3k this week!) ▫️Russia launched 5,736 drones (probably closer to 7,000), of which 907 were not intercepted (probably closer to 1,200) ▫️Russia launched 115 missiles, of which 66 were reportedly intercepted (probably more launches) ▫️Russia launched 8,249 KAB bombs, less than the previous month ▫️Russia claimed they downed 19,000 Ukrainian drones (probably a lot less) ▫️Russia is launching ~9,200 FPV drones a day and 2,600 (around 8k shells a day) artillery barrages a day on average. ▫️All sources reported a massive use of manpower on Russian side this month and heavy losses, higher than usual (SBS, GSUA, individual units, experts and some contacts all confirmed that) ▫️Russia's autumn offensive managed to enter Dobropilla and continues to put pressure east of Orikhiv, east of Sloviansk and in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast. All the data quoted here was collected and gathered by t.me/m0nstas