️Macro Alpha Analytics🫆

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Good morning 🍃 *INARI (Downgrade to HOLD / TP: RM2.16; from RM2.36)* > *Results missed expectations* owing to weaker-than-expected revenue and margin compression. We cut our FY26-27 earnings forecasts by 12-14%. > *With the share price having rebounded 21% since our last BUY* rating report and surpassing our previous target price, we downgrade to HOLD to reflect valuation catch-up. • Inari reported a softer 1QFY26 core net profit of RM51.9m (-4% qoq, -31% yoy), accounting for 17% our/consensus full-year forecasts respectively. Note that the core net profit has been adjusted for the unrealised forex losses of RM2.9m. • The earnings miss was owing to weaker-than-expected revenue, which we attribute to a shortfall from RF discrete and mid band assembly. The group has also proposed the first single-tier DPS of 1.33sen during the quarter • *1QFY26 revenue declined 16% yoy,* led by the smartphone (-19%) and automotive (-16%) segments. While core net profit dropped by a larger quantum of 30% on lower operational efficiency, the profit was also severed by adverse forex movements, where the US dollar depreciated 5% against the Malaysian ringgit vis-a-vis 1QFY25. • On a qoq basis, despite a 6% revenue improvement, core net profit still dipped 4% due to currency headwinds • *In partnership with San’an Optoelectronics (San’an), Inari has announced its plans* to jointly acquire 100% shares in Lumileds Holdings B.V. and its 11 Asian and European subsidiary companies (Lumileds International), for a total enterprise value (EV) of US$239m to be satisfied wholly in cash. • While earnings accretion remains contingent on a successful operational turnaround, we are positive on this strategic acquisition as it accelerates Inari’s expansion into the automotive and specialty illumination LED segments (and potentially via OSAT insourcing model), aligning with its long-term vision of building a vertically integrated, broader technology platform with a diversified earnings base. • We cut our FY26-27 earnings forecasts by 14%/12% to reflect lower RF volume loadings on slimmer margin assumptions. • Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of RM2.16, based on 32.0x FY26F PE (at seven-year mean forward PE). Thanks.

🔥 BREAKING — 感恩节重磅🔥 🇺🇸 President Trump：美国可能“全面取消所得税”！ 在感恩节讲话中，Trump 表示美国关税收入激增，未来“或将完全取代个人所得税”，意味着美国历史上最激进的税制改革之一可能要来了。 💢更疯狂的是 💢 Trump 直接承诺：他将让美股不断创下历史新高，并称这波火热行情将让美国人的 401K 退休账户“涨到离谱”。

整体来看： 过去两年科技股屡次出现“故事大于基本面”的现象。无论是 Inari、TTVision 还是 Oppstar，市场在主题炒作阶段往往给予非常激进的估值， 但只要数据一走弱，修正力度往往比涨幅更快、更深。

🚨 TTVision 的例子更具代表性 🚨 当时它几乎是机构经理最追捧的科技成长股之一，市场甚至将其定位为“明日之星”。大量分析员在高估值下仍不断调高 TP，期间更曾触发数次 UMA。连英国最大的保险机构 Prudential 一度成为主要股东，进一步强化市场对其潜力的期待。 然而，后续的业绩表现却未能匹配早期的估值想象 ▶️ 业务增速放缓、订单能见度下降、盈利波动偏高，股价也随之大幅回调。 这充分反映出：情绪推动的高估值，一旦缺乏持续盈利支撑，修正会来得非常快且非常深。 Oppstar 同样如此 💢 它曾创下马股史上最强的 IPO 首日涨幅纪录 ✅ IPO 价 RM0.64✅ 上市首日一度冲到 RM2.95✅ 市值在短时间快速膨胀✅ 但在随后的运营阶段，公司连续六个季度亏损，业务未能及时落地，估值缺乏基本面支撑。如今股价再创新低，成为典型的成长预期与实际执行力落差过大的案例。

很多时候并非投资者不愿支持本地上市公司，而是经过基本面分析后，确实难以在当前估值与基本面之间找到足够的安全边际。 以 Inari 为例 ▶️ 它作为 Broadcom 供应链的重要合作伙伴，理论上应能分享部分上游强势表现。值得注意的是，Broadcom 的股价昨日再创历史新高，突破 USD 397，反映出其在 AI、网络及专用半导体领域的持续强劲需求与盈利能力。 然而，对比之下，本地代工端的业绩表现却明显未同步： ♨️Inari 最新季度 营收 YoY 下滑、QoQ 放缓 ♨️盈利亦低于市场预期 ♨️即便处于传统上较强的 iPhone loading 季度，依然未见显著拉动 这形成一个清晰对比： 上游增长强劲，但本地封测与代工端并未完全受惠。 在这种基本面错配的情况下， 投资者选择更谨慎、并非出于不支持本地公司， 而是基于数据、趋势与风险回报的理性判断。

🚨 Inari YoY 净利爆增 1.1 倍？先别太兴奋 ‼️ 这季其实是 miss expectation 的： • 营收 -16% • PAT 也低预期 • 管理层指引 RM80–100m，这次明显偏下端 💢 历史对比更明显, 过去 1QFY 一直是 iPhone loading 的强季： 99m → 75m → 83m → 高峰 103m 这个季度却交出疲弱成绩，只能等 briefing 看发生什么事。 这季科技股，除了 MI、Frontken，基本全线失望。 资金也怕了，直接狂涌去消费股避险： • LWSabah 一天飙 17.8% • FFB、99Smart、各大消费股轮流飞 机构都跑去“消费避风港”取暖。 最经典的例子就是 D&O： 管理层每季喊 “公司被低估”、“The worst is over”。 但股价从 RM6+ 跌到 RM0.85 ❌ 蒸发近 90% ❗️。 Worst 到底几时才 Over？🤦‍♂️

Company: *Farm Fresh Berhad (FFB MK)* _FFB MK_ 🥛 💵 Call: *BUY* _maintained_ | 🎯 TP: *RM3.00 (30x CY27F P/E)* _raised_🏢 📢 *1HFY3/26 & 2QFY23 Results Update* – _Moo-ving” beyond Malaysia; ASEAN now the key growth engine_ 🥛🌏 *Results Highlights* - 1HFY3/26 Earnings Beat – Core NP +26.8% YoY 📊 🔹 1HFY26 core NP RM73m (+26.8% YoY) — above expectations (stronger-than-expected sales volume). 🔹 2Q revenue +18.4% YoY / +13.2% QoQ; core NP +22.8% YoY. 🔹 GP margin improved +1.5pp YoY to 33.4%, aided by new product launches, lower input costs & better operating leverage. *Growth Drivers* – New Products, Higher Capacity & ASEAN Expansion 🚀 🔹 Malaysia remains core, driven by organic demand + new launches (ice cream, milk powder, butter). 🔹 Capacity uplift:  • Taiping plant upgrade → CPG ice cream output 300k units/day  • Enstek plant on track for 1m units/day by end-3QFY26 🔹 Philippines: Strong traction; chilled/UHT/milk powders listed across modern trade; HORECA penetration rising in Manila. 🇵🇭 🔹 Cambodia: Dairy exports (started Aug 2025) contributed ~1% of 1HFY26 revenue; early signs encouraging. 🇰🇭 🔹 Regional markets now form FFB’s next big leg of growth. *Valuation & Recommendation* 🧮 🔹 FY26–28F EPS raised 7.3–16% on higher sales volume assumptions. 🔹 TP lifted to RM3.00 (from RM2.40), based on 30x CY27F P/E (sector mean). 🔹 At 29.8x 1-yr forward P/E, FFB trades at a 7.4% discount to its historical mean (33.3x). 🔹 FFB remains attractive: Malaysia’s #1 dairy brand, rising ASEAN contribution, strong innovation pipeline, and 3-yr EPS CAGR of 18.2%.

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🔥 Natgate 季报大爆雷 🔥 最新季度业绩相当刺眼： 🚨营业额 同比暴跌 30%，环比重挫 63% 🚨DC 业务（数据中心）几乎蒸发 RM16 亿，拖累整体表现 🚨税前盈利暴跌 81.5%，核心业务承压、盈利能力急速收缩 更诡异的是 新加坡业务几乎消失，不禁让人联想到之前的 Chips Smuggling 事件是否有影响。但整个行业 AI、Nvidia 业绩大爆发，为何 Natgate 反而逆势大跌，格外异常。 💸 现金流惊人反转 公司之前还是 净现金 10 亿令吉，如今竟变成 负 1 亿令吉，钱到底都去哪了？

六号厂房原本预计今年就要开始 mass production，管理层之前也信心十足，表示这个项目至少能贡献 25 亿令吉。 如今看来，这个计划恐怕已经“凉凉”了。 公司昨日突然通过 Material Information Disclosure（重大信息披露） 发出通告 ‼️ 这种公告通常意味着： ➡️ 可能会影响公司运营、财务，甚至股价动向。 管理层其实在最新季报里就提到“Plant 6 还在找顾客”，现在才发现真正原因： 项目卡住，双方定价谈不拢！ 难怪今年股价一路从 RM6.50 开始滑落，现在终于把整个故事拼齐了。

美股连涨四天🚀 温馨提醒：今晚因感恩节美股休市，明天则只交易半天。

JPMorgan gives bullish 2026 outlook. Why it thinks S&P 500 8,000 is in play https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/jpmorgan-gives-bullish-2026-outlook-why-it-thinks-sp-500-8000-is-in-play.html

#PIE 今日发通告支出原本交给全资子公司的服务器制造项目，因无法满足客户的价格预期， 项目被迫延迟 🤯 目前双方仍在进行进一步讨论与谈判 ▶️

营业额、净利双双刷新历史新高，股价今天跟着创历史新高：RM 2.59

These rates apply to some three-bedroom units, which were earlier listed on PropertyGuru at prices starting from S$5.4 million for apartments sized from 1,195 to 1,249 square feet. 😳😱🤯 $5.4m