Russia Wire

🇪🇺 Europe Divided (blame it on Russia and China) Politico: “The new risk for Europe is that Scholz and Macron increasingly look like lame ducks to their fellow EU leaders, politically weakened on the home front and incapable of inspiring confidence in a shared vision for the union. Both preside over lackluster economies. Both face humiliating defeats at the hands of far-right parties ahead of the June 6-9 European Parliament election. In Macron’s case, polls suggest the election could be a rout, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party potentially trouncing his centrist Renaissance group by 16 percentage points. Scholz’ Socialists also look in danger of being beaten into a humiliating third place by the hard right. The mix of economic weakness, personal frostiness and political weakness is toxic — and critics say it could seriously undermine their authority during top jobs negotiations after the European Parliament elections. As for “setting the agenda” for Europe? Forget it.” “While Paris and Berlin face a loss of influence, other EU leaders spy an opportunity to increase theirs. Amid the war in Ukraine and the weakening of the Franco-German axis, people like Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni have emerged as major power players on the EU stage. “ https://www.politico.eu/article/lame-ducks-macron-and-scholz-will-struggle-to-steer-eus-post-election-agenda/

⚡️⚡️ Key headlines from Russia & neighbourhood – May 28, 2024 🇭🇺Hungary of discord Hungary is “digging in and refusing to wave through billions in military aid for Ukraine, prompting growing dismay among other EU countries,” Politico writes. Diplomats had hoped to have a new €6.6 billion package ready ahead of this week's meetings of foreign and defense ministers in Brussels. The deal included €860 million for arms procurement. That didn't happen due to resistance from Budapest – the EU's most pro-Russian member, which has blocked partial reimbursements for arms sent to Ukraine under the off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) for almost a year. The backlog is now €9 billion, up from €8.3 billion in March, a senior EU official told journalists last week. 🇵🇱🇫🇷Friends in arms Poland, like France, now says it wouldn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated the intention in comments published on Tuesday. Asked in an interview whether Poland was ready to send troops to Ukraine, Sikorski said: "We shouldn't rule it out. We should leave Putin guessing as to our intentions". The interview was published in Poland's Gazeta Wyborcza, Italy's La Repubblica and Spain's El Pais. While Ukraine's NATO allies have vowed to supply the war-torn nation with money and weapons for as long as it takes to repel a Russian invasion, they have generally ruled out the possibility of sending soldiers to the country. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron opened the door to sending troops to Ukraine and at a conference in Paris on Feb. 26, suggesting that one area Western troops could help with would be to “train Ukrainians” in Ukraine. 💸Just business Western companies “backtrack on their Russia exit plans,” writes FT. For instance, Avon Products, Air Liquide and Reckitt continue to do business in Russia, despite earlier statements about plans to leave the country. According to the newspaper, many heads of foreign companies are now considering whether to leave Russia and sell everythign they have built over 3 decades at 90% discount. ⭕Know your Tucker Reuters runs a fact check on Tucker Carlson’s alleged show for Russian state TV – a week after the journalist publicly rejected the rumour that he had joined Russian TV. The social media post suggested the same went viral last week – it directed to May 21 Newsweek article that carried the same headline before it was updated later in the day to “Tucker Carlson Show Aired By Russian State TV.” Segments of Tucker Carlson’s show have aired on Russian state television, but Carlson said multiple times he has no ties with Russian TV channels. ❗️Know your answers Alisa, a virtual reality assistant developed by Russia's tech giant Yandex, is in the middle of controversy over its reluctance to answer questions about Russia-Urkaine conflict, including questions about Bucha massacre, Kommersant reports. The discussion about how the bot should respond, and whether it should took place at a conference. Head of the Presidential Council for Human Rights (HRC) Valery Fadeev (the one who recently suggested niqab shouldn’t be allowed int he country) was outraged by Alisa’s refusal to answer political questions. In response, the Yandex representative tried to explain how AI works and that avoiding the answer is "the best thing we can do now." 👉Follow t.me/russiawire for daily updates, analytics, and ground reportage from Russia, Donbass, and the neighbourhood.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, whose 10-year stint in charge is coming to an end, calls on NATO allies to lift restriction on conditions under which they supply weapons to Ukraine (UK did that earlier this month) “The time has come” he says - Why just now? And who will define what the “legitimate” targets are? The “talking heads” clearly have no intention to resolve the conflict https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oOVIfdRLHw&t=49s

President of Estonia, Alar Karis, has made a strong statement about the West’s mission to curb Russia’s military ambitions. Speaking to Finland’s YLE, Karis emphasized that stopping Russia is a key priority for Estonia and its Western sllies. As a neighbor to Russia, Estonia has a unique perspective on the geopolitical tensions in the region. "As Russia's neighbor, you must prepare for the worst," Karis advised. He expressed skepticism about any imminent changes within Russia’s political landscape, suggesting that the U.S. and Europe might have to deal with several more Russian leaders before seeing any shift in international relations. "We will do everything in our power to bring Russia and Putin to their knees," Karis declared. He believes that only under such pressure will serious negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis be possible. https://www.dagens.com/news/estonias-president-vows-to-bring-russia-to-its-knees MFA’s spokesperson Maria Zakharova is asking Karis to show, “how’s that?” But irony aside, when leaders make such statements, shouldn’t they finally ditch the “unprovoked agression”-types mantras? @RussiaWire

🇷🇺🇺🇿 Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Tashkent on a two-day visit at the invitation of President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. It is expected to discuss the current state and prospects for further development of Russia-Uzbekistan relations of strategic partnership and alliance, as well as exchange views on topical regional issues. Vladimir Putin and Shavkat Mirziyoyev will take part in the first meeting of the Council of Regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Uzbekistan. Following the visit, a solid package of bilateral documents is expected to be signed. #RussiaUzbekistan

⚡️⚡️ Key headlines from Russia & neighbourhood – May 27, 2024 🔴🇺🇦Kharkiv battlefield Ahead of Swiss peace Summit Ukrainian president (his term got over last week, btw) Volodymyr Zelensky is busy recording interview and Hollywood-style videos in Kharkiv, which is now even closer to the burning frontline than before – as Russian forces are advancing. On Saturday, Russian has attacked what appears to be DIY store/hypermarket in Kharkiv. Ukrainian side said the shop was operational (videos appeared today allegedly showing the moment of the attack from inside the store) and 16 people have died (over 40 injured and dozens missing). Russian side claims it targeted the ammo storage of Ukrainian military: "In Kharkiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are using a 'human shield' tactic—they have set up a military warehouse and command post in a shopping center, which was identified by our intelligence. A missile strike was carried out on the military facility in the 'Epicenter' shopping center,” sources told TASS. 🔴🇷🇺Belgorod battlefield Russia’s Belgorod too continues bearing the brunt of heavy fighting in KhArkiv region. During the weekend, the city was attacked by dozens of drones and over 100 missiles. As a result, six people were killed (previously, it was reported that four people had died). Over 20 people were injured, according to the Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. More people died and were injured in the Belgrorod region - shelling destroyed residential buildings and social infrastructure in 14 settlements. 🇷🇺🇺🇿Friendly visits Russian President Vladimir Putin, making his third foreign trip since his re-election in March, arrived in ex-Soviet Uzbekistan on Sunday and met with his counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev ahead of the start of formal talks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, quoted by news agencies, told Russian television that Russia was open to broader cooperation on gas supplies with Uzbekistan, saying "the possibilities here are very extensive,” Reuters reports. Putin has already visited China and Belarus since securing re-election by a wide margin. 🧨Ready for war Parliamentarians from Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) warned Germany that its reluctance to send long-term missiles to Ukraine will lead to grave consequences. They believe that insufficient Western support for Ukraine could lead to a breakthrough by Russian forces. According to Der Spiegel, in such a case, the Baltic countries and Poland would deploy their troops to Ukraine. Baltic countries, according to the newspaper, warned their German colleagues that their countries would not wait for Russian troops to appear on their borders. Deploying troops would make NATO a full participant in the conflict, something the governments of Germany and the United States are so afraid of. 🇲🇩Safe heaven? Moldova has formally requested that Russia extradite the leader of the country's main political opposition, Israeli-Moldovan business man Ilan Shor, Justice Minister Veronica Mihailov-Moraru has said. Chisinau has also sent a new request to Israel to extradite Shor after the first one was rejected, while approaching Moscow with the same demand. Earlier this month, the businessman revealed in an interview that he had obtained a Russian passport, which makes his extradition effectively impossible since Moscow does not surrender its citizens to other countries. 👉Follow t.me/russiawire for daily updates, analytics, and ground reportage from Russia, Donbass, and the neighbourhood.

NYT looks at Russian military’s overhaul: “Now, with the battlefield crises seemingly behind him and Mr. Prigozhin dead, the Russian leader has decided to act, changing defense ministers for the first time in more than a decade and allowing a number of corruption arrests among top ministry officials. The moves have ushered in the biggest overhaul at the Russian Defense Ministry since the invasion began and have confirmed Mr. Putin’s preference for avoiding big, responsive changes in the heat of a crisis and instead acting at a less conspicuous time of his own choosing. “We have to understand that Putin is a person who is stubborn and not very flexible,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who now lives outside Russia. “He believes that reacting too quickly and rapidly to a changing situation is a sign of weakness.”” “ The timing of Mr. Putin’s recent moves is most likely a sign that he has greater confidence about his battlefield prospects in Ukraine and his hold on political power as he begins his fifth term as president,” NYT notes – citing experts. Alexander Khodakovskyv, who leads the Vostok Battalion (what used to be Donetsk resistance forces against Kyiv) and who is fighting the war since 2014, commented recently on the developments at the MOD. “There are many reasons that have turned into problems over decades, including chronic ones. It will also take years to improve the situation, yet most of us expect results here and now. This is risky: if we don't see quick, desired changes, society may start to become disillusioned and withdraw its trust from the emerging team. The new team faces the task not only of managing budget expenditures properly but also of initiating regeneration processes in a large and complex system, which will only yield the expected results over time.” @RussiaWire

⛔️Moscow has officially ended a disarmament cooperation agreement with Tokyo, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed on Friday. The process of scrapping the treaty was initiated six months ago due to what Russia called Japan’s “unfriendly” policies. Under the agreement, signed in October 1993, Japan was to help Russia dismantle a large portion of the Soviet atomic arsenal and help address resulting environmental problems. Earlier on Friday, Japan announced expanding its sanctions against Moscow over dealing with North Korea for arms supplies @RussiaWire

❗️Russian President Vladimir Putin today, while speaking at Minsk, said Moscow needs to understand with whom to deal in Kyiv - when the moment for signing a peace deal arrives. Russia must be absolutely sure it’s actually dealing with the legitimate Ukrainian authorities to engage in meaningful and legally binding talks to conclude the conflict between the two nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said, noting that Zelensky’s legitimacy was over. Putin was responding to a question about Zelensky’s presidential term running out earlier this month and the impact of this development on potential talks. Putin also called the upcoming peace summit on Ukraine hosted by Switzerland “a PR stint” suggesting that is is an effort to prop up Zelensky in his role. “Such PR moves are meaningless for legal documents.” @RussiaWire

#Swisspeaceconference Bloomberg: Brazil and China are calling for an international conference recognized by both Russia and Ukraine to discuss proposals to halt the war, throwing up an alternative to a push by Kyiv for its own Western-backed peace plan. China and Brazil both released a statement outlining “common understandings” on a path to resolving the war, which started when Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022. It is the first time China has signed a joint declaration with another country about the conflict. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/brazil-china-call-for-peace-conference-on-russia-ukraine-war