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WEEKLY OUTLOOK July 14-19
An hour ago on PATREON
The declining US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is lowest since the COVID-19 is positive news for the consumer last week.
This has given hope for the FED members to take interest rate reduction into account during their September meeting. I doubts they will act, when they get together on July 30 and 31.
There is still a lot more data to be published until September that might turn the economy the other way. But compared to 73% a day before, market expectations of a rate cut in September has surged to 93%.
Powell cautioned Congress in his presentation that the economic risks are balanced. He said, "we also run other risks besides elevated inflation." Probably referring to robust economic growth, which needs to be further eased.
Nevertheless, Friday's PPI report must have somewhat slowed the rhythm, as wholesale inflation jumped to 2.7% against May's expected level of 2.2%.
Once more, emphasis will turn to the economic report for this week.
About the BOJ's intervention, there is no formal word in circulation. Estimates from its data, however, indicate that its balance will drop by JPY 3.2 trillion that support the view. More would be known following the publication of BOJ's month end data.
The effect was so strong, nonetheless, that USD traded at the day highs versus JPY at 161.94 dropped significantly loosing nearly 400 pips.
Meanwhile, ECB will release its policy statement next week on Thursday. In June it reduced its interest rate by 25bp.
#GOLD @ $ 2411- is expected to hold $ 2402-04. If breaks could see minor dips to test $ 2395-97 before bouncing back. Or else $ 2388
This week there is risk for a test and break of $ 2422-25 that could push gold towards $ 2431-34.
#EURO @ 1.0903- Only move beyond 1.0940 will pave way for 1.0985, which is not a favoured scenario.
On the downside risk is that break of 1.0840 could push it towards 1.0777.
#GBP @ 1.2983- Pound Sterling should hold 1.2920 for a final upside move.
However, it needs to crack 1.3060 to enter long awaited 1.31-32 zones before sharp drop in coming weeks. Break below 1.2820-40 will delay its upward journey.
#JPY @ 157.87- will remain volatile. Watch support level of 156.70-80, as long as it hold, USD can test 158.60, with next level to watch is 159.10.
However, if $ fails to hold the support level, the risk is high for a test of 155.60-80 zones.
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