EUROPA! - Military Blog

Analyst Comments: Though the publicity of Putin’s proposal may be surprising to some, this is probably Russia’s last warning before the summer offensive comes to fruition. Though Putin’s demands may seem unfair to the West (the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, along with dropping Ukraine’s NATO bid), Ukraine is almost certainly not in a position to offer much flexibility in negotiations (if they were to occur). Consequently, this may be the best deal Ukraine is likely to get. Despite the hubris of the highest order that has become standardized as NATO’s doctrine over the past few decades, a “forever war” requires an adversary that is also willing to engage in such…and Russia has routinely expressed her lack of interest toward this goal. As such, the reality of the war will likely become apparent to all parties very soon. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z June 14, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING AGAIN INTENSIFIES IN THE RED SEA. SAUDI CROWN PRINCE CANCELS ATTENDANCE OF G7 SUMMIT. PUTIN PUBLICIZES TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE PEACE TALKS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting increases with two major incidents occurring over the past few days. Yesterday, three ASCMs successfully targeted the M/V VERBENA in the Gulf of Aden, causing severe damage. CENTCOM confirmed that at least one crew member was medically evacuated from the VERBENA due to wounds sustained during the attack. On Wednesday, Houthi forces successfully targeted the M/V TUTOR, a Greek-flagged cargo vessel (carrying coal) in the Red Sea. This attack was carried out via an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) and resulted in the TUTOR sustaining severe damage to the engine room. Per the latest reports, the vessel is experiencing severe flooding, and is reportedly not under command at this time. However, her current status remains unclear. AC: These attacks come as a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report was released yesterday confirming that maritime traffic through the Red Sea has decreased by approximately 90% since Houthi targeting began. Middle East: Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia quietly increase following various diplomatic slights over the past few weeks. Last week, the 1974 petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. allegedly expired, with no replacement treaty scheduled to take effect. AC: While the 1974 agreement is legitimate, it’s not clear as to if a 50-year expiration date is indeed contained within the text of the agreement. Regardless of the formalization of such a specific expiration date, the opportunity not being taken to renew Saudi-US relations during such a critical time in both nation’s histories speaks volumes. Notwithstanding the formalization of such poor relations, the Saudis have been trading in oil using non-USD currencies for some time now (most famously including the recent unconfirmed claims of OPEC shifting to the Chinese Yuan). This recent diplomatic spat continues the already apparent shift in the diplomatic status between the two nations, and probably will result in more OPEC+ member states shifting away from the United States and more favorably in the direction of BRICS+. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has more directly signaled increasing dissatisfaction with the U.S. via Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) abruptly canceling his attendance of the G7 summit currently underway in Italy. AC: MBS was scheduled to be a critical attendee of the summit (as Italy seeks to improve relations with the Middle East, and court various trade agreements that have been in the works for months). However, he canceled his trip just a few hours before he was supposed to arrive in Rome, citing pressing duties to oversee the Hajj season (which is a poorly-camouflaged excuse, as his attendance is not required for this holiday season, which has likewise been scheduled for many months). This G7 summit would have been his first attendance as he increasingly takes over the duties of the Saudi empire. Europe: In a televised press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated the conditions for a peace proposal in Ukraine. -----END TEARLINE-----

//The Wire//1400Z June 13, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PEACE TALKS HESITANTLY CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CHINESE ACTIVITIES CONTINUE IN TAIWAN STRAIT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Peace talks again remain uncertain as Israel, Hamas, and the United States continue to work through the latest round of peace talks. Though an agreement has not been formally met at this time, all parties have responded positively to the latest US-led proposals. In the North, combat actions along the Israeli/Lebanese border continue to intensify on both sides. In Iraq, a significant fire is burning at the oil refinery complex in Erbil. AC: Initial unconfirmed reports suggest the fire may have been caused by a successful attack by insurgents. Far East: Chinese incursions in the Taiwan Strait continue. Overnight, 23 aircraft and 7 vessels were detected conducting operations in the vicinity of Taiwan. AC: Months ago this would have been out of the ordinary, but now that the baseline has shifted to normalize increasing numbers of aircraft incursions and naval operations this is a reminder of how a slow increase in forces over time can be operationally effective. -HomeFront- Washington: An incident at the FBI headquarters in Seattle prompted substantial police action following reports of an armed individual inside the building. The incident (possibly a mental health crisis) was resolved after some time without injury. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: A significant escalation to watch out for is the increase of Israeli combat actions in Lebanon. An increasingly likely scenario that most power-players are concerned with in the region is what a peace deal with Hamas might mean for Netanyahu, who likely seeks to do everything he can to save his government. Consequently, the question remains: If peace is achieved with Hamas, will Netanyahu shift the war to the north, continuing the fight with Hezbollah? Though the chance of this is uncertain, it remains a possibility. Especially considering that even the White House has openly and repeatedly accused Netanyahu of making poor tactical decisions so as to continue the war (and thus save his own political career). As such, if Israel decides to shift the fight to the north into Lebanon more directly, this would be yet another escalation in a time of exceptionally intense international relations. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

And no, contrary to popular belief, Onoda never surrendered. He was relieved of duty by Major Yoshimi Taniguchi, his former commanding officer. Those who argue that he had surrendered are primarily Chinese communists who envy the spirit of the National Socialist militant man.

"NO SURRENDER: My Thirty Year War", by Hiroo Onoda. In the spring of 1974, Second Lieutenant Hiroo Onoda of the Japanese Army made world headlines when he emerged from the Philippine jungle after a thirty-year ordeal. Hunted in turn by American troops, the Philippine police, hostile islanders, and successive Japanese search parties, Onoda had skillfully outmaneuvered all his pursuers, convinced that World War II was still being fought and that one day his fellow soldiers would return victorious. This account of those years is an epic tale of the will to survive that offers a rare glimpse of man's invincible spirit, resourcefulness, and ingenuity. A hero to his people, Onoda wrote down his experiences soon after his return to civilization. This book was translated into English the following year and has enjoyed an approving audience ever since.

"NO SURRENDER: My Thirty Year War", by Hiroo Onoda.

"NO SURRENDER: My Thirty Year War", by Hiroo Onoda. In the spring of 1974, Second Lieutenant Hiroo Onoda of the Japanese Army made world headlines when he emerged from the Philippine jungle after a thirty-year ordeal. Hunted in turn by American troops, the Philippine police, hostile islanders, and successive Japanese search parties, Onoda had skillfully outmaneuvered all his pursuers, convinced that World War II was still being fought and that one day his fellow soldiers would return victorious. This account of those years is an epic tale of the will to survive that offers a rare glimpse of man's invincible spirit, resourcefulness, and ingenuity. A hero to his people, Onoda wrote down his experiences soon after his return to civilization. This book was translated into English the following year and has enjoyed an approving audience ever since.

//The Wire//1930Z June 7, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CONFLICT REMAINS TENSE IN MIDDLE EAST. RUSSIA DEPLOYS BLACK SEA FLEET.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Early indications and warnings of an Israeli operation in the North are mounting. Over the past few weeks, both Hezbollah and Israel have increased targeting in the region, with each retaliation escalating slightly more than the strike before it. Consequently, various power-players throughout the region have taken an increased interest in this recent series of escalations, with the obvious concern that an unprecedented escalation may occur now that peace talks between Hamas and Israel are increasingly more likely (albeit without being certain just yet). Caribbean: Russian forces will reportedly take part in a Naval exercise in Cuba next week. This deployment will reportedly involve at least three surface vessels and one submarine. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Russian exercises such as those recently announced for Cuba are not entirely uncommon, occurring every few years or especially during times of heightened international tensions when Russia seeks to pressure the United States. However, it must be noted that other indications and warnings are increasing with regards to Russian naval activity. Recent satellite imagery indicates that Russian vessels of the Black Sea Fleet have departed from their berths in Novorossiysk. Between June 3rd and June 6th, a substantial portion of the Black Sea Fleet put to sea. What this movement means is anyone’s guess, however such a substantial deployment is likely not without good reason. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//