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Educational Trading Community. Daily Technical Analysis & Structured Learning. Focused on Risk Management, Discipline & Psychology. Not a SEBI-Registered Advisor.
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🚨 HIGH IMPACT USD NEWS – 6:00 PM
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index m/m
📊 Forecast: 0.2%
📊 Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 Prelim GDP q/q
📊 Forecast: 1.5%
📊 Previous: 1.5%
⚠️ Both are high-impact USD events.
🔥 XAUUSD / USD pairs may see high volatility around 6:00 PM.
Trade safe & manage your risk. 📈📉
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📊 GOLD — BIG DAY AHEAD 🥇🔥
Markets are waiting for U.S. GDP + PCE data at 6 PM, followed by the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week. These events could bring major volatility.
Here’s why the bullish Gold narrative remains strong:
📉 Bond yields falling
🛢 Crude oil falling
🏦 U.S. Treasury support & buybacks
🪙 Gold ETF inflows
🏛 Central banks continuing to buy Gold
📊 Markets pricing a relatively stable Fed path
If the incoming data and Fed messaging remain supportive, the Gold rally could continue. 🚂🥇
⚠️ But remember: fundamentals can be bullish while price still pulls back. Let the technical setup confirm the entry.
💻 Today, Nvidia earnings could also be a major catalyst for stocks and overall risk sentiment.
Macro + Technicals. That's the game. 📈🧠
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🚨 KEY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 🌍📊
🇮🇷 US escalates pressure on Iran
The US Treasury sanctioned ~60 Iran-linked entities and expanded secondary sanctions. Countries helping Iran could also face US dollar restrictions. 💵⚠️
🇨🇦 Trump escalates Canada trade fight
🚗 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts & steel are planned from Jan. 1, 2027. Canada is considering retaliation on energy & minerals. ⚔️
🇺🇸 Treasury buybacks shake bond markets
The US Treasury could use nearly $1T from the TGA to expand bond buybacks. 📉 This could push long-term yields lower, but critics warn about inflation and USD risks.
💻 AI & chip stocks under pressure
Nvidia dropped for the 7th straight day as investors worry about earnings, AI pricing pressure and weakness across the semiconductor sector. 📉🤖
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🚨 WHY DID GOLD SUDDENLY PUMP? 🥇📈
Gold just made a strong move higher after the U.S. Treasury announced a major increase in long-term bond buybacks.
Here’s the simple explanation 👇
🇺🇸 1️⃣ U.S. TREASURY TO INCREASE BOND BUYBACKS
The Treasury announced that it will increase the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury bonds from:
💰 $2 BILLION → AT LEAST $4 BILLION per operation
The change will begin September 9 and target longer-duration bonds.
📉 2️⃣ BOND YIELDS DROP
The announcement immediately helped support the Treasury market.
The 30Y Treasury yield fell sharply, after recently reaching its highest level since 2007.
30Y Yield:
📈 ~5.34% → 📉 ~5.19%
Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold.
🥇 3️⃣ GOLD BENEFITS FROM LOWER YIELDS
The chain is:
🇺🇸 Treasury increases bond buybacks
⬇️
📉 Bond yields fall
⬇️
💵 USD comes under pressure
⬇️
🥇 Gold becomes more attractive
⬇️
🚀 GOLD RALLIES
⚠️ 4️⃣ THIS IS NOT THE SAME AS QE
Important distinction:
The Treasury is buying back existing Treasury securities to support liquidity and manage its debt portfolio.
This is different from the Federal Reserve creating money and buying bonds as part of Quantitative Easing (QE).
So don't automatically call this "QE."
🔥 5️⃣ WHY THIS MATTERS FOR GOLD
The bond market has been under pressure because of:
• High U.S. government borrowing
• Rising long-term yields
• Inflation concerns
• Higher oil prices
• Middle East/Iran uncertainty
• Concerns about the huge U.S. debt load
Today's Treasury announcement helped calm some of that pressure.
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🏦 FOMC MINUTES TODAY — VERY IMPORTANT
The Federal Reserve will release the July FOMC meeting minutes today.
⏰ 2:00 PM ET
🇮🇳 11:30 PM IST
At the July meeting, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was unusually divided:
🔴 3 officials wanted a 25-bps rate hike
🟢 9 officials supported holding rates
The minutes could reveal whether the three hawks were isolated or whether there was broader support inside the Fed for higher rates.
👀 WATCH FOR:
• Inflation concerns 🔥
• Oil/energy price risks 🛢
• Labor-market weakness 👷
• Number of officials considering a hike 📈
• Views on September policy 🏦
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market structure / before we trade we need 1st most imp technical knowledge is market structure .
