ProbabilityTA (Public)

Charting for - DJI / HSI / STI / Wilmar / Suntec Reit / MCD /

This week Q2 Earning Report

DJI Movement The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) penetrated the resistance zone but closed at 40,000 before the market closed last Friday. Potential Reversal Any reversal candle in the coming week could signal a significant change in direction, depending on the companies' earnings reports. HSI Movement Classical trade setup - Retracement to support area 17400 before going up. Bias with TP around 19k-20k MCD - Movement Coming week candle will show more confirmation for MCD to bias on upside. Q2 Companies Earnings Report This week continues with reports from: Goldman Sachs (GS) Bank of America (BAC) Morgan Stanley (MS) TSMC Netflix (NFLX) And more STI Breakout Will the STI break out from its sideways market since 2021 (short-term) and 2010 (long-term)? A break above 3650 would be a notable achievement in this slow market. Trade Setups With STI, we're looking at potential trade setups in both Wilmar and Suntec REIT. Refer to the images for more details.

Weekly Market Update Congratulations to those who acted on my previous mention of Tesla! In less than a month, we've achieved over a 30% gain on this trade alone. Let's hope for continued success. Upcoming Week Highlights Core CPI Start of Company Earnings Reports Fed Chairman Powell Speaking Video - https://youtu.be/m7x5lCPOVVA Markets and Stocks Covered in This Update DJI / Nasdaq / HSI / Tesla / MCD (McDonald's) / PEP (PepsiCo) / BTCUSD (Bitcoin) / US OIL

Things to Watch in the Coming Weeks Market Schedule: Markets will open for half a day on Wednesday and will be closed on Thursday in observance of US Independence Day. Economic Data: Heavy economic data reporting includes U.S. jobs data, Fed Chair Powell's speech, and China's PMIs due on Monday. Analysts expect China to introduce more policy support measures shortly, with government pledges to boost fiscal stimulus aimed at increasing domestic consumption. Market Performance: During last Friday's trading hours, U.S. indices showed signs of cracking after continuous gains over several days. Nike's earnings report did not meet expectations, causing investor caution as upcoming quarterly reports, including bank earnings kicking off next Friday, approach. Stay tuned here for more updates and detailed write-ups.

Weekly Market Update - Last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday peak of 5,505.5 and the Nasdaq approaching the 20,000 mark. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the weakest performer compared to the Nasdaq and S&P 500. As we approach the end of June 2024, the market has six months remaining before the year concludes. For the remainder of 2024, market focus will be on key events such as earnings reports in July, a potential rate cut in September, and the presidential election in November. The market may hover sideways until the earnings reports in July. Video - https://youtu.be/E8J7JFFWoGI US Oil - US oil is well supported at the 200-day moving average, with prices recently retesting around $74 (with a low of $72).The bias is on the upside. If prices break above $81, we could see a move towards $90 or higher. McDonald's - The bias is on the upside, with the 200-day moving average acting as support. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Weekly Market Update - Last Friday, NFP data showed an increase of 272,000 jobs in May, surpassing the 190,000 estimate and April’s gain of 175,000. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% last month and 4.1% year-over-year. Despite the job gains, the unemployment rate edged up to 4%. Investors had hoped for weaker job figures, anticipating it would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year. However, with the labor market showing resilience, Wall Street now seems focused on the strength of the economy continuing to grow without the need for lower interest rates. In the coming week, crucial economic data will be released on Wednesday, including Core CPI and the Fed's interest rate decision. Will the Fed follow the European Central Bank's lead, which announced its first rate cut since 2019 last Thursday? Video - https://youtu.be/owNT7odEn_o If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people.

Tesla shows an upward bias, supported by two key indicators.

Weekly Market Update - Last week, the Dow Jones showed weakness, slipping 0.98% and marking its second consecutive week of losses. In comparison, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their five-week winning streaks, declining by 0.51% and 1.1%, respectively. The HSI faced resistance at 20,000 and slipped back near its first retracement support level at 18,000. If the HSI falls below 17,000, it may face further challenges. In the coming week, the first week of the month brings significant economic data, including ISM PMI, NFP, and the unemployment rate. Additionally, all three US indices have slipped after reaching their all-time highs, with some forming bearish divergences. Video - https://youtu.be/MLBFnj8wTn0 Tesla - Tesla shows an upward bias, supported by two key indicators. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Crude oil crosses $80. First signal. Manage your risk and may nibble abit. Enjoy your days.

Weekly Market Update - Last week, US CPI data strengthened the case for much-anticipated rate cuts in 2024, boosting bullish sentiment in the equity market. Stocks ended the week strong, with the Dow up 1.2%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly gain and closing above 40,000 last Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 1.5% and 2.1%, respectively, achieving their longest winning streak since February. Meanwhile, the Chinese market also showed robust performance, with HSI heading towards 20,000 as mentioned in my last video. In the coming week, all eyes will be on the earnings report from the tech giant NVIDIA. Additionally, I am closely watching Snowflake's earnings, given Warren Buffet's investment in the company. Video - https://youtu.be/idDZyfynQdQ JD - Continue to hold HSI- Continue to hold till 20k US Oil - Need to cross $80/$81 For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Weekly Market Update - Last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report revealed a gain of 175,000 jobs in April, falling short of the 240,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. This unexpected outcome prompted a sharp surge across all three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 450.02 points, or 1.18%, settling at 38,675.68. Similarly, the S&P 500 surged by 1.26% to close at 5,127.79, marking its best day since February, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 1.99% to end at 16,156.33. Traders are now pricing in a rate cut, with a 50% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate reduction in September. In my personal opinion, I believe the rate cut could yield negative results for the market, as the positive anticipation preceding the cut may dissipate once it materializes in September. However, the upcoming US presidential election in November may serve as a saving grace for the market. Looking ahead to the coming week, earnings reports will continue, with companies like Palantir, Disney, and many more scheduled to announce their results. Stay tuned as I will reveal my two secret counters once their take profit (TP) or stop loss (SL) levels are triggered later. Video - https://youtu.be/MFvSkhBgto8 DJI - DJI is currently facing resistance from its 50-day moving average. Keep an eye on the 38,400 price level, which could potentially act as a previous resistance-turned-support level. A break and close below this level may indicate further downward drift. HSI - For HSI, there's finally a positive development. It's crucial to monitor the break and close above the 18,500 level. This level holds significance for HSI's potential upward movement towards the next resistance level at 20,000. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Secret Counters 1 & 2

Weekly Market Update - 22th Apr 2024 - 26th Apr 2024. Weekly Market Update - Congratulations to those who took action on AMD following last week's market update, earning close to a 10% return in just one week. If you're interested in learning how to identify opportunities like AMD, I invite you to enroll in my online courses. You'll gain valuable insights into fundamental and technical analysis, empowering you to make informed decisions in the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 211.02 points, or 0.56%, closing at 37,986.40. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced a 2.05% decline, closing at 15,282.01, while the broader S&P 500 slipped 0.88% to 4,967.23, falling below the 5,000 level. Both indices recorded their sixth consecutive days of losses, a streak not seen since October 2022. The Nasdaq's decline of 2.05% was primarily driven by the chip sector, with Nvidia dropping 10%, marking its worst performance since March 2020. Super Micro Computer plummeted more than 23%, while Netflix retreated over 9%, despite beating quarterly earnings expectations. Looking ahead to the coming weeks, brace yourself for the kickoff of heavy Big Tech earnings reports. Coupled with ongoing tensions, expect significant volatility in the market. Video - https://youtu.be/zxjqfEMu07U Two secret counters have been shared with the close group. I'll provide an update later once either the stop loss (SL) or take profit (TP) levels are hit. DJI seems to find support at 37,500, potentially indicating a temporary rotation of funds from the tech sector into DJI components. For AMD, if it fails to hold at 145, the next support level to watch is around 120. Keep an eye out for AMD's earnings report next Tuesday. Secret Counter 1 & 2: Both counters have a Risk/Reward Ratio above 1 and are currently at crucial support levels. (For members of the closed group) For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis.

Weekly Market Update - 15th Apr 2024 - 19th Apr 2024. Weekly Market Update - U.S. stocks ended Friday's session in the red, with all three major indices posting weekly losses. The Dow experienced a weekly drop of 2.37%, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 1.56% and 0.45%, respectively. Major banks reported their quarterly earnings, with JPMorgan Chase shares falling over 6% and Wells Fargo slipping 0.4%. Despite a revenue beat, Citigroup dropped 1.7%. Last Friday's market decline may be attributed to concerns about inflation and geopolitical tensions, which weighed on investor sentiment on Wall Street. In addition, the chip sector (including companies like AMD, Micron, and Intel) may face pressure due to reports that China instructed telecoms to remove foreign chips, which also impacted many ADR stocks. In the coming weeks, keep an eye on geopolitical tensions and continued earnings reports from other major banks (such as BAC, GS, and JPM), as these factors could influence market stability. Video - https://youtu.be/1GMZZUFhaNw DJI: As previously noted, if prices fail to reclaim recent highs, we may see a surge in selling pressure. The next support levels to watch are around 37,500 and then 37,000.UPS: The bias remains towards the downside. A break and close below the ascending support line could lead to further declines, with initial support at $135. BA: Having fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci support, Boeing is now eyeing the next support level around $145. BA's bearish trend was noted on March 16, 2024. AMD: China's focus on phasing out American chip makers is significantly impacting AMD. If AMD falls below $162, the next support level to monitor is around $142 (50% Fibonacci level). HSI: The Hang Seng Index has faced resistance twice at 17,000. Immediate support can be found at 16,000.

Weekly Market update - Thursday saw a significant tumble in the Dow, dropping approximately 530 points, or 1.35%, marking its most substantial daily decline since March 2023. This downward trend persisted for the fourth consecutive session. However, the Dow rebounded on Friday, climbing 307.06 points, or 0.8%, settling at 38,904.04. Despite this, all three major indexes concluded the week in the red. The Dow experienced a notable 2.27% decline, marking its worst weekly performance of 2024. The S&P 500 declined by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. Amidst the focus on economic data influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, it's imperative to shift attention back to corporate earnings, starting with major banks in the upcoming weeks. From a technical standpoint, the market appears hesitant to descend from its all-time highs. However, a catalyst is necessary to facilitate a healthy pullback or correction. Despite Friday's rebound across all indexes, they failed to surpass the highs preceding Thursday's drop. If, in the coming week, indexes breach the lows of last Thursday, it could potentially trigger a cascade of selling pressure. This aligns with the adage "sell in May and go away." Video - https://youtu.be/cxAsSeIabFM DJI - In the upcoming week, should prices fail to reclaim last Thursday's highs and maintain support above the established line, we could witness a surge in selling pressure. The fate of the Dow hinges significantly on the major earning reports expected in the week ahead.US Oil - As previously noted, the breakout above $81 in oil suggests a sustained bullish trend. Furthermore, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are amplifying bullish sentiment, potentially propelling oil towards its next resistance level of $92. The heightened geopolitical tensions could even spur oil prices to spike to $100 in the coming weeks. For the remaining charts, please refer to the videos for further analysis. If you've found this weekly market update helpful and advantageous, kindly consider liking and sharing this post as well as my YouTube channel. Your support encourages me to persist with weekly videos, knowing they are benefiting more people. To watch the weekly market update video • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ProbabilityTA • Follow us on Telegram: https://t.me/ProbabilityPTA To find out more, visit us @ www.probabilityta.com

Initially, $120 served as a robust support level, evidenced by EL's drop to this level in November 2023, which we identified as our final price accumulation point. Following this, EL rebounded from $120 to our second accumulation level at approximately $150. Should EL demonstrate a robust breakthrough above $150 and the weekly 50-day Moving Average (MA), there's a high likelihood of revisiting our initial price accumulation level. At this juncture, those who have acted on this strategy should be seeing profitable returns. While EL was initially shared within my private group, I've now extended this insight to benefit a wider audience. It's essential to understand that there are numerous approaches to DCA, and this represents my preferred method. Crucially, one must discern which stocks warrant DCA and when to establish a cutting price.