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🚀 Bitcoin has done it! On Dec 5th, 2024, BTC surpassed $100K for the first time, proving its resilience and adoption. 🚀 🚀 🚀
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📊 XAUUSD grows on weak U.S. labour market data
Gold (XAU) gained 0.24% yesterday after a report showed private sector hiring fell more than expected last month.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The ADP Employment Change report released on Wednesday revealed that the private sector added 146,000 jobs in November, down from 233,000 in the previous month. This data weakened the U.S. dollar (USD), with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decreasing towards 106.190. Furthermore, expectations of lower U.S. interest rates support gold, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month and continue reducing rates in 2025. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that officials will proceed with caution as they continue to lower rates while highlighting the strength of the U.S. economy. ‘Our baseline scenario for 2025 is for gold to initially face pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar but to be supported by increased physical buying and steady demand from the official sector. After that, we anticipate a renewed boost from investors as the FOMC brings rates down towards 4%’, said Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie.
In the meantime, the metal market continued to benefit from its safe haven status amidst global geopolitical tensions. Gold gains from political instability in South Korea and France, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the potential escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon if the ceasefire with Hezbollah is breached.
XAUUSD was growing during the Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims report data will be released at 1:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading will be positive for gold, while strong labour data may trigger a correction in the precious metal.
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📊 Euro holds ground despite French political uncertainty
The euro (EUR) moved within a narrow range of 1.04720–1.05440 against the U.S. dollar (USD) yesterday but finished the day essentially unchanged.
👉 Possible effects for traders
As the market expected, the French government collapsed following a no-confidence vote by opposition lawmakers against Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Barnier is now expected to tender his and his government to President Emmanuel Macron. ‘At this point, it really becomes a question of how much worse the situation gets from here’, said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp. Reuters reported that French President Emmanuel Macron aims to install a new prime minister quickly. Still, Barnier's removal deepens the political crisis in the eurozone's second-largest economy and could further weigh down on the euro.
Investors also digested comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday. She said the ECB would continue to lower rates but didn't commit to any pace of easing. Meanwhile, the latest data pained a somewhat mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, the labour market appears to be in relatively good shape, with the ADP Nonfarm Payroll report aligning with expectations. On the other hand, the ISM Services Index was much weaker than expected. Nonetheless, the U.S. economy's outlook remains favourable. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book report on Wednesday showed that businesses were optimistic that demand would rise in the months ahead.
EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, volatility may subside, given that traders may prefer to refrain from entering large positions ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report. Still, today's U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims report, due at 1:30 p.m. UTC, may trigger notable fluctuations in all USD pairs. Higher-than-expected figures may lift the euro slightly, but the 1.06000 level will likely remain intact. Lower-than-expected results may push EURUSD below 1.05000 again.
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3 316
📊 CAD strengthens on expectations of a Fed rate cut
USDCAD movements slowed as investors continued to bet on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this month.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, stated yesterday that the U.S. economy is in a better state than was thought in September when the central bank reduced interest rates. This allows policymakers to be more cautious about future adjustments to the base rate. Still, Powell's comments haven't significantly changed market expectations that the Fed will likely reduce rates at the 18 December meeting, notes Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Meanwhile, Canadian service sector activity grew for the second consecutive month in November, with firms increasing their workforce, according to S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The headline business activity index rose towards 51.2 from 50.4 in October. At the same time, the price of oil, an important Canadian export, decreased by 2% towards $68.54 per barrel as traders awaited a decision from OPEC+. However, investors expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its accommodative monetary policy at the upcoming meeting, with a high chance of another significant reduction of 50 basis points.
The pair was moving sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 1:30 p.m. UTC and Canadian Ivey PMI at 3:00 p.m. UTC will affect USDCAD. Tomorrow, the Canadian Unemployment Rate will come out at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected data may push the pair towards new highs, while lower data may trigger a downward correction.
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The STARC Bands approach is a tool that combines two essential indicators: the Simple Moving Average and the Average True Range. Here’s what you need to know:
🔍 What Are STARC Bands?
STARC Bands consist of a middle line (Simple Moving Average) and two outer bands that indicate potential price movement. This channel helps you identify optimal entry and exit points for trades.
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📊 How to Use the STARC Bands Strategy
📈 Uptrend: Consider a BUY when the price approaches the lower band and sell when it nears the upper band.
📉 Downtrend: Look to open a SELL position near the upper band and close it as the price reaches the lower band.
💡 Indicator Setup
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Will a renewed tension in the Middle East boost gold prices?
- Fed Governor Waller signaled support for a Dec rate cut, while NY Fed President Williams hinted at a shift toward neutral policy.
- According to CME FedWatch, markets price over 70% chance of a 0.25% cut at the Dec FOMC meeting.
- Meanwhile, gold prices remain supported by ongoing Middle East tensions despite a ceasefire.
- XAUUSD is between both EMAs, indicating a sideways structure. The price trades within the 2606-2664 range, and the market awaits an apparent breakout.
- Closing above the resistance at 2664 may prompt a retest at the following resistance of 2720.
- On the contrary, if XAUUSD closes below 2606, the price may retest the subsequent support at 2560.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD tested the resistance level of 96,800.00
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 96,800.00.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 96,600.00.
Set your stop loss at 97,600.00 above the previous high ($10.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 95,400.00 ($12.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.2.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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3 316
December is finally here, with a festive mood, the aroma of Christmas trees, cinnamon, and a waiting for a little miracle!
But we, traders, still have some work to do. Prepare for December trading with our monthly Forex calendar. Set reminders for critical events and share them with your friends to help them stay alert.
Here are the events that require your attention.
🔹 6 December—U.S. Employment Situation. Influences USD pairs.
🔹 10 December—RBA key rate. Influences AUDUSD.
🔹 11 December—US CPI inflation. Influences USD pairs.
🔹 11 December—BoC key rate. Influences USDCAD.
🔹 12 December—ECB key rate. Influences EURUSD.
🔹 18 December—UK CPI Inflation. Influences GBPUSD.
🔹 18 December—U.S. key rate. Influences USD pairs.
🔹 19 December—BOJ key rate. Influences USDJPY.
🔹 19 December— BoE key rate. Influences GBPUSD.
🔹 20 December—the quadruple witching.
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3 316
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3 316
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