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6 018
📊 Gold prices start to rise after losing almost 3%
The gold (XAU) price decreased by 2.74% on Wednesday after reaching a new all-time high of $3,261. The decline was due to U.S. President Donald Trump softening his stance on trade tariffs with key trading partners, reducing the metal's safe-haven appeal.
👉Possible effects for traders
U.S. Finance Minister Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that a reciprocal tariff reduction between China and the U.S. must be agreed upon to start trade talks. If the trade agreement is reached, it may keep U.S. economic growth on track to exceed the International Monetary Fund's estimate of 1.8%.
'The kind of volatility we're seeing this week is being driven by technicals and headline risk. But the fundamentals are strong, so dip buying is effectively a function of investors moving in on the basis of the bigger picture,' said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst. 'We sustain an uptrend until the Trump administration really backs away from its trade policy,' he added.
Gold rose above $3,300 during the Asian trading session after yesterday's significant drop. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, due at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The data could increase volatility in the market, especially in USD pairs. If the figures exceed market expectations, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, weighing down on gold prices. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data may support gold by increasing demand for safe-haven assets.
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6 018
📊 EURUSD ticked slightly higher
The U.S. dollar (USD) has recovered from a three-and-a-half-year low of 1.15720 against the euro (EUR). Earlier this morning, the euro continued to move slightly lower and remained at around 1.13380.
👉Possible effects for traders
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that the U.S. tariffs could have a disinflationary impact on Europe if there are no European countermeasures. However, tariffs would encourage China to redirect exports to the region. She added that the disinflationary effect would be partly offset by an expected increase in Germany's fiscal spending after the country's parliament passed a plan to significantly boost defence and infrastructure spending last month. Lagarde said she couldn't exclude the possibility of the ECB revising up its growth forecasts when it presents its next outlook in June in light of Trump's tariffs.
'It is clear, by now, that no other currency is as sensitive to trade headlines as the U.S. dollar,' wrote ING currency strategist Francesco Pesole in a note to clients. 'We still think the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside for USD in the near term, but we don't expect a repetition of the one-way traffic in dollar selling we have witnessed of late,' he said. 'That said, EURUSD remains almost entirely a function of USD moves. And another leg higher above 1.15000 remains possible should fears about the Fed's independence take centre stage again,' Pesole concluded.
EURUSD remained relatively flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC will shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market. The data may alter Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. Moreover, traders should monitor any tariff-related news and developments around trade negotiations. Key levels to watch for EURUSD are support at 1.13000 and resistance at 1.14000
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6 018
📊 Bitcoin paused its rally ahead of U.S. economic data
Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday and moved near $94,000 on the expectation of decisions regarding the U.S. trade policy. Bitcoin has shown good resilience to market volatility and financial market uncertainty caused by trade tariffs war. Surprisingly, its 10-day volatility is lower than that of the major stock market indices. It may indicate that Bitcoin is more resilient against the U.S. dollar.
👉Possible effects for traders
'Even though Bitcoin is still correlated with stocks, the most significant part is now performing as a low beta by not amplifying equity risks,' commented David Lawant, head of research at FalconX. 'BTC isn't moving independently, but it's not amplifying equity risk like it used to. That's the real and important signal,' he added.
BTCUSD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The price is moving below $93,000 but still above the 100-hour simple moving average zone—a strong support level. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC. It may shed more light on the future U.S. interest rate path. Key levels to watch are support at $91,900 and resistance at $94,700.
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6 018
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6 018
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6 018
📊 Japanese economy showed signs of growth
On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) lost more than 1% against the U.S. dollar (USD) as investors received signals of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
'Even if Japan and the U.S. were to discuss currency rates, there's really not much the two sides can do. It doesn't make sense to conduct currency intervention. Rate hikes are also out of the question,' said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan FX and commodities sales at ANZ. Meanwhile, new data from Japan revealed that private sector activity rebounded in April following a decline in March. The Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50 in March towards 52.2 in April. Overall, the services sector's performance in April signalled a cautious return to economic growth.
USDJPY rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, apart from tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI report at 1:45 p.m. UTC. It may shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering investors' rate-cut expectations and triggering volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 143.200 and support at 140.000
6 018
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6 018
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