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Andrew Korybko

Andrew Korybko’s geopolitical analyses

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America Was Less Than An Inch Away From Socio-Political Disaster https://korybko.substack.com/p/america-was-less-than-an-inch-away
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America Was Less Than An Inch Away From Socio-Political Disaster

America just got a reality check about how close it is to descending into chaos. Former President and impending Republican Nominee Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at an outdoor rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday days before his party’s national convention after suddenly turning his head at the last second and thus miraculously dodging a bullet that only ended up grazing his ear. The shooter was killed by the Secret Service, but an

Five Takeaways From The US’ Decision To Deploy Intermediate-Range Missiles In Germany https://korybko.substack.com/p/five-takeaways-from-the-us-decision
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Five Takeaways From The US’ Decision To Deploy Intermediate-Range Missiles In Germany

This move will fundamentally transform the European security architecture and bury President Putin’s plans to reform it. Biden and Scholz agreed last week that the US will begin the rotational deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Germany starting in 2026, which Defense Minister Pistorius

Korybko To Ian Hall: Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was A Masterstroke, Not A Miscalculation https://korybko.substack.com/p/korybko-to-ian-hall-modis-trip-to
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Korybko To Ian Hall: Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was A Masterstroke, Not A Miscalculation

The problem with his opinion is that it isn’t cogent and comes off more as an attempt to discredit Modi for privileging his country’s strategic partnership with Russia than any honest critiques of his trip. Ian Hall is one of Australia’s most influential experts on the Indo-Pacific, whose opinions on India carry heavy weight because of the authority that he commands among policymakers as well as his country’s role in the

Russia Won’t Meaningfully Enhance Military-Technical Cooperation With Pakistan https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-wont-meaningfully-enhance
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Russia Won’t Meaningfully Enhance Military-Technical Cooperation With Pakistan

There are very clear lines that Russia won’t cross with Pakistan out of respect for India, and meaningfully strengthening military-technical ties is at the top of the list. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations reported on Wednesday that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Sahir Shamshad Mirza held talks in Moscow with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister, Deputy Secretary of the Security Council, and Deputy Chief of the General Staff. According to their

Russia Is Serious About Resolving The Issue Of Deceptive Indian Recruitment Into Its Army https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-is-serious-about-resolving
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Russia Is Serious About Resolving The Issue Of Deceptive Indian Recruitment Into Its Army

India played it cool and didn’t overreact, for which it deserves a lot of credit, while Russia agreed to discharge its partner’s nationals from service even before the investigation concludes. Indian media reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the issue of Indians being duped by human trafficking gangs into joining the Russian Army during his

Interpreting The Polish Military Chief’s Decision To Prepare For “Full-Scale Conflict” https://korybko.substack.com/p/interpreting-the-polish-military
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Interpreting The Polish Military Chief’s Decision To Prepare For “Full-Scale Conflict”

This strongly hints that Poland isn’t ruling out a conventional intervention in Ukraine under certain circumstances and expects that it would rapidly escalate into another Polish-Russian War just like the one that broke out after World War I. Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Wieslaw Kukula

Belarusian Media Made A Good Point About Why Poland Shouldn’t Close The Border https://korybko.substack.com/p/belarusian-media-made-a-good-point
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Belarusian Media Made A Good Point About Why Poland Shouldn’t Close The Border

This could worsen Poland’s ties with Western Europe in parallel with cutting it off from this lucrative route upon which Chinese-EU overland trade is dependent. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski revealed late last month that his country was considering closing its border with Belarus, which its Western-backed and Lithuanian-based “opposition” leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya

Is Ukraine turning into a Polish client state? 🧐 https://x.com/akorybko/status/1811085392445341838?s=46
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Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was Much More Important Than Most Observers Realize https://korybko.substack.com/p/modis-trip-to-moscow-was-much-more
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Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was Much More Important Than Most Observers Realize

The most spectacular achievement from Modi’s trip to Russia wasn’t whatever they formally agreed to, but him and Putin informally agreeing to redouble their joint efforts to accelerate tri-multipolarity processes. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just completed his first trip to Russia in half a decade and put an end to the several-year-long hiatus in annual meetings between their leaders. The outcome was

India Has A Role To Play In The Emerging Non-Western Peace Process On Ukraine https://korybko.substack.com/p/india-has-a-role-to-play-in-the-emerging
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India Has A Role To Play In The Emerging Non-Western Peace Process On Ukraine

India would do well by preparing another Voice of Global South Summit for later this month, which could counteract the perception that China dominates the emerging non-Western peace process and result in India playing a key role within it. The predictable failure of the Swiss talks on

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