WaliBabaFx

Contact WhatsApp Sir.Rashid +92318 5918955

Weekly Analysis 02-Nov-2025

Hi everyone, unfortunately there won’t be a stream today due to some unexpected technical issues. We’re working on resolving them and appreciate your understanding. We’ll be back soon!

join WhatsApp channel for market updates

Why is gold becoming expensive? The biggest reason for the increase in the price of gold is that this year gold has reached $4,300 per ounce, which has happened for the first time in history. This increase did not happen suddenly, but is the result of several economic and geographical reasons. The first major reason is global uncertainty, that is, global uncertainty. Political and military tensions have increased in major regions of the world. There is a war situation in the Middle East, there is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Europe, and economic tensions in Asia. In such situations, investors always look for those that are considered safe, which are called safe haven assets. Gold has always been an investment that is not controlled by any country's currency or government. The second major reason is the weak financial condition of the United States. The debt on the US economy has currently exceeded $35 trillion. There are fluctuations in interest rates. The budget deficit and political commentary have reduced investors' confidence in the dollar. This is why investors are buying gold out of the dollar so that they can protect the value of their gold. The third major reason is the weakness of the dollar. When a country's currency weakens, capital Cars are moving towards alternative fundamentals and gold is currently considered the biggest alternative. The US dollar has been under pressure amid political tensions and growing global financial uncertainty. The fourth reason is that large-scale gold purchases by central banks. Countries like China, Russia, Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia are buying more gold by reducing the share of dollars in their foreign exchange reserves. The main reason for this is that reducing dependence on the dollar has now become a financial necessity. Especially after the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, many countries have realized that if their reserves are in dollars, they can be frozen at any time. That is why countries are making their financial reserves more secure by accumulating gold. The fifth major reason is investor confidence. Large fund institutions and investors around the world believe that gold is an asset whose value increases over time. In comparison, the stock market is often subject to uncertainty. Yields on bonds are decreasing and cryptocurrencies are not stable. Therefore, investors are looking to secure their investments. The sixth major reason is the US interest rate, which means that interest rates are expected to fall. When interest rates are low, investors move out of bonds and buy gold because gold no longer earns interest, but its value increases. This is why large financial institutions like Goldman Sachs are predicting that if the situation continues like this, gold could go up to $5,000 per ounce. The seventh reason is inflation. Inflation rates are consistently high in most countries of the world. Gold is an asset that is traditionally used to protect against inflation. When the currency is devalued, gold increases in value, so people buy gold to protect their purchasing power. The eighth reason is distrust in digital currencies. In the past few years, we have all seen a lot of volatility in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which has led investors to return to traditional assets. Although Bitcoin is currently called digital gold, many experts still believe that real gold is a more stable and less risky investment. The important thing is that gold is not just a part of jewelry or culture, but a strategy, that is, it has become a strategic asset. Central banks use it to protect their economies and investors consider it an insurance policy. So overall, the increase in gold prices is not just a result of market demand and demand, but a combination of global economic instability, weak currencies, rising debt, political uncertainty and changes in investor behavior.

سونا کیوں مہنگا ہو رہا ہے سونے کی قیمت میں اضافے کی سب سے بڑی وجہ یہ ہے رواں سال سونا چار ہزار تین سو ڈالر فی اونس جا چکا ہے جو تاریخ میں پہلی بار ہوا ہے یہ اضافہ کچھ اچانک نہیں ہوا بلکہ کئی معاشی اور جغرافیائی وجوہات کا نتیجہ ہے پہلی بڑی وجہ ہے عالمی بے یقین یعنی کہ گلوبل انسرٹنٹی دنیا کے بڑے خطوں میں سیاسی اور عسکری کشیدگی بڑھ گئی ہے مشرق وسطی میں جنگی حالات ہیں یورپ میں روس اور یوکرین کا تنازہ ہے اور ایشیا میں معاشی تناؤ ایسے حالات میں سرمایہ کار ہمیشہ ایسے ایسے تلاش کرتے ہیں جو محفوظ سمجھے جائیں جنہیں سیو ہیون ایسٹس کہا جاتا ہے اور سونا ہمیشہ سے ایسی سرمایہ کاری رہا ہے جس پر کسی ملک کرنسی یا حکومت کا کنٹرول نہیں ہوتا اور دوسری بڑی وجہ ہے امریکہ کی کمزور مالی حالت امریکی معیشت پر قرضہ اس وقت 35 ٹرلین ڈالر سے تجاوز کر چکا ہے شرائع سود میں اتار چڑھاؤ ہے بجٹ خسارہ اور سیاسی تفسیر نے سرمایہ کاروں کا ڈالر پر اعتماد کم کر دیا ہے یہی وجہ ہے کہ سرمایہ کار ڈالر سے نکل کر سونا خرید رہے تاکہ وہ اپنے سونے کی قدر کو محفوظ کر سکیں تیسری بڑی وجہ ہے ڈالر کی کمزوری جب کسی ملک کی کرنسی کمزور ہوتی ہے تو سرمایہ کار متبادل اساسوں کی طرف جاتے ہیں اور سونا اس وقت سب سے بڑا متبادل سمجھا جا رہا ہے امریکہ کی رونی سیاسی کشیدگی اور عالمی سطح پر بڑھتی ہوئی مالیاتی غیر یقینی صورتحال میں ڈالر کو دباؤ میں ڈال دیا ہے چوتھی وجہ یہ ہے کہ مرکزی بینکس کی جانب سے بڑے پیمانے پر سونا خریدنا چین روس ترکی بھارت اور سعودی عرب جیسے ممالک اپنے زر مبادلہ کے ذخائر میں ڈالر کا حصہ کم کر کر سونا زیادہ خرید رہے ہیں اس کی بڑی وجہ یہ ہے کہ ڈالر پر انحصار کم کرنا اب ایک مالیاتی ضرورت بن چکا ہے خاص طور پر روس پر عائد معاشی پابندیوں کے بعد بہت سے ممالک کو یہ احساس ہوا ہے کہ اگر ان کے ذخائر ڈالر میں ہوں تو کسی بھی وقت منجمن کیے جا سکتے ہیں اسی لیے ممالک سونا جمع کر کے اپنے مالیاتی ذخائر کو زیادہ محفوظ بنا رہے ہیں پانچویں بڑی وجہ ہے سرمایہ کاروں کا اعتماد دنیا بھر کے بڑے فنڈز ادارے اور سرمایہ کار یہ سمجھتے ہیں کہ سونا ایک ایسا اثاثہ ہے جس کی قدر وقت کے ساتھ بڑھتی ہے اس کے مقابلے میں سٹاک مارکیٹ اکثر غیر یقینی کا شکار رہتی ہے بانڈز پر منافہ کم ہو رہا ہے اور کرپٹو کرنسی میں استحکام نہیں ہے لہذا سرمایہ کار اپنے سرمایہ کاری کو محفوظ بنانے کے لیے سونا خرید رہے ہیں ، چھٹی بڑی وجہ ہے وہ امریکی شرع سود یعنی کہ انٹرسٹ ریٹ میں کمی کی توقع کی جا رہی ہے جب شرح سود کم ہوتی ہے تو سرمایہ کار بانڈز سے نکل کر سونا خریدتے ہیں کیونکہ سونا سود نہیں رہتا مگر اس کی قدر بڑھ جاتی ہے یہی وجہ ہے کہ گولڈ مین سکس جیسے بڑے مالیاتی ادارے پشین گوئی بھی کر رہے ہیں کہ اگر حالات ایسے ہی رہے تو سونا پانچ ہزار ڈالر فی اونس تک جا سکتا ہے ساتویں وجہ ہے افراط زر انفلیشن دنیا کے زیادہ تر ممالک میں مہنگائی کی شرح مسلسل بلند ہے سونا ایک ایسا اثاثہ ہے جسے روایتی طور پر مہنگائی کے خلاف تحفظ کے لیے استعمال کیا جاتا ہے جب کرنسی کی قدر گردی ہے تو سونے قدر بڑھ جاتی ہے اس لیے لوگ اپنی خریداری کی طاقت بچانے کے لیے سونا خریدتے ہیں اٹھویں وجہ ہے ڈیجیٹل کرنسیز پر عدم اعتماد گزشتہ برسوں میں ہم سب نے دیکھا بٹ کوائنز اور دیگر کرپٹو کرنسیز میں بہت اتار چڑھاؤ رہا ہے جس کی وجہ سے سرمایہ کاروں نے روایتی اثاثوں کی طرف واپسی کی ہے اگرچہ اپ بٹ کوائن کو اس وقت ڈیجیٹل گولڈ کہا جاتا ہے لیکن بہت سے ماہرین ابھی یہ سمجھتے ہیں کہ حقیقی سونا زیادہ مستحکم اور کم خطرناک سرمایہ کاری ہے نویں اہم بات یہ ہے کہ سونا اپ صرف زیورات یا ثقافت کا حصہ نہیں ہے بلکہ ایک حکمت عملی یعنی کہ سوٹیجک ایسڈ بن چکا ہے مرکزی بینک اسے اپنی معیشت کے تحفظ کے لیے استعمال کرتے ہیں اور سرمایہ کار اس سے ایک انشورنس سمجھتا ہے تو اوور ال یہ بات کہ سونے قیمت میں اضافہ صرف مارکٹ کی طلب اور رسب کا نتیجہ نہیں ہے بلکہ عالمی معاشی عدم استحکام کمزور کرنسیز بڑھتے ہوئے قرضے سیاسی ہے یقینی اور سرمایہ کاروں کے رویے میں تبدیلی کا مجموعہ ہے

Gold rallies above $3,400 as Fed independence fight boosts safe-haven demand 29 August 2025, •XAU/USD rallies 0.43% as US Dollar weakens and US yields fall, lifting Gold to $3,413 peak. •Solid GDP growth and lower jobless claims highlight US economic resilience, but safe-haven flows dominate. •Fed Governor Cook sues Trump over firing attempt, stoking concerns on central bank independence and policy outlook. Gold price rises to a five-week high of $3,413 as traders shrug off solid economic data from the United States (US), which justifies the current stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold rates unchanged. However, safe-haven demand, driven by threats to the Fed’s independence, underpins Bullion prices. The XAU/USD trades with gains of over 0.43%, boosted by a weak Dollar and falling US Treasury yields. Data from the US revealed that the economy is growing at a solid pace, exceeding forecasts and the preliminary reading for the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased, a sign of strength in the labor market. Although the economy is faring well, concerns about the Fed’s independence keep Gold underpinned. Bloomberg reveals that Fed Governor Lisa Cook “sued President Donald Trump over his attempt to fire her for alleged mortgage fraud, kicking off a historic fight over independence of the US central bank.” Ahead this week, traders will eye the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The core PCE for July is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY. Daily digest market movers: Gold shrugs off strong US economic data •The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the US for the second quarter of 2025 expanded by 3.3% QoQ, above the preliminary reading of 3% exceeding forecasts for 3.1%. •US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23 hit 229K, below forecasts of 230K and the previous week's 234K. Following the downward revision of Nonfarm Payroll figures at the beginning of the month, the statistics showed that the economy added 35K jobs per month during the last three months, compared to 123K in 2024 for the same period. •US Treasury yields are dropping. The 10-year Treasury note is down 2.5 basis points to 4.215%. US real yields — which are calculated from the nominal yield minus inflation expectations — are also down three bps to 1.785% at the time of writing. •The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six currencies, tumbles 0.37% to 97.82. •Gold price is also boosted by investors increasing their bets that the Fed will reduce interest rates at the September meeting. Data from the Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities tool show that the odds for a 25 bps rate cut stand at 82%. Technical outlook: Gold price poised to challenge $3,450 in the near term Gold’s uptrend is set to continue after clearing the $3,400 figure, which has opened the door to test the next higher high of the July 23 high of $3,438. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum. With that said, if XAU/USD rises past $3,438, the next area of interest would be the June 16 high of $3,452, ahead of the record high of $3,500. Contrarily, a drop below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,364 would expose the 50-day SMA at $3,348, followed by the 100-day SMA at $3,321.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades firmly near $3,400, sees resistance around $3,440 28 August 2025, 11:42 •Gold price clings to gains around $3,400 ahead of second estimate Q2 GDP data. •The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in the September meeting. •Fed’s Williams support interest rate cuts amid escalating GDP growth concerns. Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto gains near $3,400 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal demonstrates strength as traders are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September monetary policy meeting. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in the September monetary policy meeting. On Wednesday, New York Fed Bank President John Williams also stated that there is need to push interest rates to neutral, citing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth risks, and ongoing economic adjustments. Williams kept the door open for interest rate cuts in the September meeting, however, he stated that officials want to see data before jumping on a conclusion. Fed Williams’s dovish remarks on interest rates have weighed on the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near 98.00. Going forward, investors will focus on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which is scheduled for Friday. In Thursday’s session, market participants will pay close attention to the second estimate for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Gold technical analysis Gold price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle, which indicates a sharp volatility contraction. The upper border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500, while the downward border is placed from the May 15 low near $3,180.86. The yellow metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,362.00, indicating a sideways trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245. Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold holds near $3,400 as Fed bets, politics weigh 27 August 2025, 21:10 •XAU/USD trades around $3,397 as traders price in 90% chance of September Fed rate cut. •Fed’s Williams stresses data-dependence; PCE, CPI, jobs reports remain crucial ahead of September meeting. •White House–Fed tensions fuel safe-haven bids, but Gold needs a decisive break above $3,400 for momentum. Gold price remains steady on Wednesday, even though the Greenback recovered from earlier losses triggered by threats to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. Nevertheless, Bullion sellers are not out of the woods as pressure from the White House continues. The XAU/USD trades at $3,397, up 0.12%. The US economic docket remains light, except for remarks of New York Fed President John Williams, who said that rates can fall at some point but emphasized that only data would indicate if it is appropriate to reduce rates, based on the economy’s performance. In a CNBC interview, Williams added that every meeting “from my perspective is live,” adding that risks of employment and inflation are “more in balance.” He said the Fed is “going to just have to see how the data play out.” The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17. Ahead of this date, there will be another jobs report, as well as two reports on inflation— the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August —before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its sixth meeting of the year. Traders have priced in a 90% chance of a rate cut, according to the Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool. JP Morgan analysts in a note said that “a weaker dollar should remain in focus, but we are more interested to see if this could catalyse a Gold breakout after a long period of consolidation.” The fight between the White House and its influence on the Fed could prompt traders to buy Bullion, which so far has failed to climb “decisively” above $3,400. If cleared, then traders would eye the June 16 peak of $3,452. Ahead this week, Gold traders will eye the release of GDP data, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE. Daily digest market movers: Gold steadies as US yields tumble despite solid Dollar •US Treasury yields are dropping. The 10-year Treasury note is down two basis points to 4.246%. US real yields — which are calculated from the nominal yield minus inflation expectations — are up one and a half bps at 1.826% at the time of writing. •The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Dollar against a basket of six currencies, is flat at 98.21. •Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” He added that “the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully.” •On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Tomas Barkin said his forecast is for a modest adjustment to rates, as he noted, “I see modest movement in the economy.” •Gold traders would eye the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on their second estimate for Q2. Expectations are at 2.6%, up from 2.5% on the preliminary reading. Alongside this, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23, are forecast to dip from 235K to 230K. Technical outlook: Gold trades sideways within $3,350-$3,400 Gold price continued its sideways movement, with investors awaiting the latest tranche of US economic data, as they also target the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures for the following week. However, it remains trading within the $3,350-$3,400 range as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish. If XAU/USD climbs past $3,400, the next resistance would be the June 16 high of $3,452, ahead of the record high of $3,500. Conversely, a drop below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,357, would expose the 50-day SMA at $3,348, followed by the 100-day SMA at $3,317.

what is the inflation ? Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, which reduces the purchasing power of money. When inflation occurs, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services, making it harder to afford things. The rate of inflation is typically measured by a Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the average change in prices for a basket of common goods and services.