Edward Morra

💭We are still in a bear market (kind of). Let me explain 👇 This might be an unpopular opinion but few days ago I tweeted that we can still be in a bear market. The reason why this cycle feels so weird and empty is because ETF was introduced earlier than market was ready and kinda speedran the whole thing and we made a new (albeit small) marginal ATH. This led people turn bullish on everything else as well. On top of that we had a memecoin mania that also played with everyone. This is just my opinion but we made a new ATH way before we suppose to. See, historically BTC only was making new high after the halving (usually up to 6 months or more). This time we made new high before halving and failed to continue despite ETF flows. Majority of altcoins (with exception of few newer memecoins) never entered a bullish phase, some are retesting or even making new lows last week, suggesting we might still be in an accumulation. Weak price action across the board (including BTC) only confirms it. Therefore, I think Q3 of this year has a nice chance of forming a real bottom and we see an expansion in Q4. We also have some solid fundamentals going into autumn. Lets review some positive signs (+): ▫️FTX might finally repay its victims around $15B by the end of this year (+) ▫️ETH ETF is coming quite soon (+) ▫️US elections, rate cuts, seasonality (+) ▫️German government will soon run out of BTC to sell (+) Some negative factors: ▫️MtGox repayments. It can really take a while with this one but also it means the impact on the market will be spread out much smoother (-) ▫️Grayscale trust (both ETH and BTC), they still have a lot to sell but hopefully they will be more careful with execution (-) Overall I think we are quite ok and headed into a bullish season finally. Definitively not the time to give up! Keep your morale up! https://x.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1809314690553770348

👨‍💻Government of Germany has been selling its confiscated BTC for a while already. Initially they had around $3B worth of BTC. Today was the largest outflow so far, almost $1 billion was sent to exchanges (presumably to sell). They are sending it across several major exchanges such as Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase etc. Now, the good news is they only have half left (~50%). Another $1.4B Given the immense sell pressure we are still holding relatively ok. If today daily candle closes green - that would be a nice sign of absorption. Once we clear this supply overhang - we can stabilize. ▫️Link to Arkham dashboard where you can check out how much BTC Germany still has: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany

$ETH Sticking to my plan. Added back more ETH. ETF pump candle fully retraced. Send it! https://www.tradingview.com/x/D1Qf1B5x/

$SOL Started adding some $SOL on spot on this retest. Betting on this triangle fuckery pattern. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tSgMyEST/

$SOL Triangle fuckery typical for crypto. Stop out buyers -> trap sellers -> back inside the formation. Lets see how it plays out, not setting any limit orders yet. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tc009AGF/

$ETH After taking some profits in $3900s, I'm looking to add back (+more) at the levels below. With impending (inevitable) ETF coming, I see no reason not to add (yes, I am retarded). https://www.tradingview.com/x/LpQZQ6UI/

$BTC Looking to bid this bullish level just below $63k. Bulls - rejoice! https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCSWXlAg/

$ETH Target (magnet) reached ✅ If you followed - makes sense to shave some partial profit to pay yourself! 🤝 https://www.tradingview.com/x/zbjU879h/

$SOL From calling for a pullback off of $180 to filling some longs in $125-135 we now have arrived at the first resistance 🤝 Fixing some at least partial profits after a 30% bounce is advisable (but still optional). https://www.tradingview.com/x/sKjIeIEm/

$BTC | [Update] En route to $69k. Bullish Chuvashov fork after a range low fakeout (spring) is playing out. Overall market is bouncing off nicely, I'm still in all my spot positions on altcoins I've been buying/holding before. Some of the positions are quite disappointing but I still think we are in a bull market and we see higher prices this year. Obviously this cycle things are a bit different and its objectively more difficult to move/pump market at this level capitalization. A constant stream of new projects with insanely high FDV launching almost everyday is not helping either. Market is getting really diluted and I think the only solution to this problem is an influx of new money/participants (imo we haven't seen it yet). https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Xedfv7s/