MONEY TIMES TALK
20.6.26
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Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display 'BUY', 'SELL' or 'HOLD' recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, Industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser.
As per astrology view, some important turning dates are 22, 25th & 29th June and 1 & 3rd July 2026.
Friday night US markets closed flat due to holiday trading conditions. Gift Nifty is down -48 pts at 24042, indicating a flat to mildly negative opening for Indian markets on Monday, assuming no adverse geopolitical or macro developments over the weekend.
Big alert: US-Iran peace negotiations face renewed uncertainty as Israel intensifies military strikes in Lebanon, further escalating regional tensions. Iran has suspended the 60-day negotiation process citing violations of the US-Iran MOU, while diplomatic engagements have been disrupted, including cancellation of key visits. The situation has added fresh uncertainty to global risk sentiment.
As per market grapevine, stocks to watch include Chemcon, Emami Paper, Huhtamaki, IOLCP, Jumbo Bag, Metroglobal, Mennpis, Rajesh Power (BSE SME), Univastu, Va Tech Wabag, Vodafone Idea & Yes Bank. However, investors are reminded that speculative hype cycles tend to reverse sharply, making selectivity and discipline critical in volatile phases.
End of a great era. JP Associates, a star of the 2007 bull run, has finally been delisted. The stock had surged from around Rs.70 to Rs.2200 before collapsing to Rs.2. It highlights the importance of reviewing portfolio holdings every 3 months and avoiding blind long-term holding.
As per market grapevine, after the euphoria in crypto, gold, silver and crude, concerns are rising around Al, Tech and Semiconductor stocks. Experts believe excessive optimism and stretched valuations could eventually lead to sharp corrections in Nasdaq and related sectors.
In markets, no one knows the future with certainty. Decisions should be based on available information, not hindsight. Long-term wealth is created through discipline, patience and risk management. Many investors fail not because they are wrong, but because they refuse to accept mistakes and act on them.
Few trading rules: 1. Trading is purely a game of psychology, discipline and risk management. 2. Success in trading comes through experience, continuous learning and smart work, not shortcuts. 3. Every trade should be based on a planned and back-tested setup, not emotions. 4. Trading is a game of probabilities, not guarantees. No setup wins every time. 5. Trading is not gambling. Always trade with a strict stop loss and predefined risk. 6. Cash market trading is generally safer than F&O, and index trading is often safer than individual stocks. 7. Preserve your capital for great opportunities. Losing money on poor trades reduces your ability to benefit from high-conviction setups. 8. For consistent profitability, control emotions such as fear, greed and overconfidence. 9. Daily meditation, exercise and healthy habits help improve focus, discipline and decision-making. 10. In many midcap, smallcap and microcap stocks, charts are often influenced by market participants rather than pure fundamentals. The sooner you understand this, the better your trading journey will be.
When VIX is high, option premiums are expensive and time decay becomes faster. Even if a stock moves 30-40 points, premiums may rise only 8-10 points. In such periods, positional F&O trades become less attractive. Focus on intraday opportunities or avoid F&O trading until volatility normalizes.
Wisdom for wealth creation. India has millions of experts and self-proclaimed analysts promising quick riches. The reality is that very few create meaningful wealth. Markets reward discipline, patience and risk management, not excitement. Stay away from leverage, unnecessary debt and noise-driven investing. A debt-free life often leads to better financial decisions and long-term wealth creation.
Investing is not a copy-paste exercise. Never buy or sell a stock solely because someone else is doing so. Every investor has different risk appetite, return expectations, investment horizon, portfolio size, allocation strategy and tax considerations. Borrowed conviction often leads to poor decisions.
As per market veteran, a simple rule is to recover the original capital once an investment doubles. The profits can continue compounding while the recovered capital can be used for life goals, travel and experiences. Wealth creation is important, but enjoying the journey is equally important.
As per market veteran, your portfolio is more than just stocks and mutual funds. It includes real estate, gold, silver, FDs, bonds, cash, business ownership and other assets. Net worth is the sum of everything you own. Booking profits from one asset class does not reduce wealth if it helps achieve life goals. Net worth is what you own, portfolio is where you own it and life is why you own it.
As per market veteran, wisdom for wealth creation. Investors often ask what Nifty will do tomorrow, but the real focus should be on the portfolio, not the index. If the businesses you own continue to grow earnings, generate cash and improve intrinsic value, short-term market movements matter less. Great investors focus on business quality, earnings growth, cash flow and competitive advantages rather than headlines and predictions. Wealth is created by owning strong businesses for long periods. The index is the crowd's report card; your portfolio is your personal report card. Nowadays, what not to buy is often more important than what to buy.
Big negative for Indian economy: Weak monsoon conditions persist with rainfall deficit around 40% till 20th June due to El NiΓ±o-like impact. Disruption in moisture-laden wind patterns from both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is affecting rainfall distribution across multiple states. Prolonged deficit may impact agriculture output, rural demand, industrial supply chains and inflation trajectory, posing broader macroeconomic risks if conditions do not improve soon.
Reiterated geopolitical risk: US-Iran peace process remains suspended amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict, rising casualties, and heightened rhetoric, further increasing uncertainty in global crude oil and commodity markets.
Nifty 50 closed at 24013 with key technical levels: 20 DMA at 23632, 50 DMA at 23845, 100 DMA at 24210, and 200 DMA at 24897. Bank Nifty closed at 57686 with 20 DMA at 55398, 50 DMA at 55287, 100 DMA at 56447, and 200 DMA at 57043. Markets are trading in a technically sensitive zone where global triggers can drive sharp volatility.
BSE has launched the Saatvik 100 Index, India's first ethical/value-based benchmark. The index screens companies based on socially responsible and value-based criteria, excluding sectors like alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and weapons-related businesses, aiming to cater to investors focused on principled investing frameworks.
India's forex reserves declined below 10 billion weekly fall, largely driven by a drop in gold reserves despite some stability in foreign currency assets. The decline has raised concerns around external buffers and short-term currency stability sentiment in the markets.
IT stocks down from highs: 1) Happiest Mind -78%, 2) Newgen Soft -74%, 3) Sonata Soft -66%, 4) Cyient -65%, 5) Birlasoft -63%, 6) Tata Elxsi -63%, 7) KPIT Tech -63%, 8) Nucleus Soft -57%, 9) Mastek -56%, 10) TCS -55%, 11) Zensar Tech -54%, 12) Wipro -53%, 13) L&T Tech -50%, 14) Infosys -48%, 15) Hexaware -48%, 16) Tata Tech -47%, 17) HCL Tech-45%, 18) LTTS-45%, 19) FSL -43%, 20) Intellect -41% & many more. Mutual Funds have lost-Rs.4.5 lakh cr. in IT in 2026. As per market grapevine, fund managers have largely failed to price in Al disruption impact on IT stocks.