📊 Market Update 📊
The market continues to chop as Energy Secretary Chris Wright falsely posted on X that "the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz," immediately sending oil below $80/barrel. The White House deleted the post and the press secretary confirmed no escort has occurred. Defense Secretary Hegseth then said today will be "our most intense day of strikes inside Iran," directly contradicting Trump's "very complete" messaging from yesterday. Iran is also deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, a major escalation that makes reopening the strait significantly more dangerous even after a ceasefire.
Key News Events
- Trump on Truth Social threatened Iran would be hit "twenty times harder" if they stop oil flow through Hormuz.
- Iran state media reported an oil tanker exploded near Abu Dhabi, souring midday sentiment after an initial rally.
- US intelligence detected Iranian craft deploying naval mines into Hormuz. Iran's mine stockpile is estimated at 2,000–6,000 devices, making future transit far more dangerous even with escorts.
- One tanker, the Pola, made a covert transit through Hormuz by switching off its AIS tracker — the first confirmed commercial transit since the blockade began.
Upcoming Events
- Mar 11 - Feb CPI
- Mar 13 - Jan PCE
- Mar 18 - FOMC meeting
- TBD - Actual US Navy escort of Hormuz tankers, G7/IEA strategic petroleum reserve release, Trump's "plan" to lower oil prices
Summary ✍️
The Hormuz mining is significant as mines are far harder to deal with than drones or missiles. Even with a ceasefire tomorrow, clearing mines could take weeks or months and keep the strait functionally restricted. That said, oil falling 10–15% on the day signals the market wants to reprice lower given any excuse. The false escort claim crashing oil below $80 in seconds shows how much pent-up selling pressure exists once people believe supply disruption is easing. BTC's resiliency is reassuring, but until the strait reopens and oil settles into the $70s sustainably, all rallies remain vulnerable to the next escalation headline. Watch CPI tomorrow. If inflation comes in hot on top of the oil shock, expect another move down. Manage risk accordingly and only bet when your S/R lines and indicators are in confluence.
TL;DR
Energy Secretary falsely claimed the Navy escorted a tanker through Hormuz, crashing oil below $80 before the White House corrected it. Iran is mining the strait with naval mines. Hegseth says today is the "most intense day of strikes" despite Trump's "very complete" comment yesterday. Oil down 10–15%, settling ~$84–85 WTI. One tanker (the Pola) made a covert transit. BTC rallied 4% to $70–71k. Stocks mixed. The administration is sending contradictory signals. CPI tomorrow. Stay cautious.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC continues to play out as predicated, bouncing off of our 66k support and reaching our 70.8k resistance before rejecting. Now I'm expecting a potential pullback to the 68k level (where liquidity lies), before higher. The RSI is starting to level out and the StochRSI is getting close to overbought again. Expect more chop as the macro volatility continues. Major support remains 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 71k, 73.6k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH closed above its horizontal+trendline resistance, although we'll most likely tap 2000 first (trendline+horizontal support), due to its indicators playing out similar to BTC. If we close below 2000 on the daily, I would look for a move to 1940 at the very least. But if we can close above 2000 then I expect 2100 is the next target. Major support remains 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2000, 2100, 2210, and 2380.