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The Strait of Hormuz is open - but there’s a catch. Over the past 24 hours, only 9 vessels have passed through the strait. According to rumors, Iran has allowed navigation for China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Iraq, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. For other countries, a reported tariff of $2M per ship may apply. Markets are red because there is still no clarity on the Iran-U.S. talks - who Trump is speaking to, and for what purpose, remains unclear. On top of that, media reports say Saudi Arabia has urged the U.S. to continue strikes on Iran and push for regime change. Waiting for the next headline from Trump, once his team reloads the exchange balance.

Another Ethereum OG, thomasg.eth - who was holding $538 million in crypto at the 2021 market peak - is now gradually rebuilding his position. Yesterday, he bought another $3 million worth of ETH. Over the past week, he has accumulated $19.5 million in ETH and moved it into staking on Aave.

Altcoin trading volumes are dropping sharply Current volume on Binance is around $7.7 billion, while other exchanges are seeing about $18.8 billion. That is far below the levels seen during active market phases, when Binance volumes reached $40-50 billion and other platforms saw as much as $91 billion. CryptoQuant analysts note that, historically, the best investment opportunities tend to emerge when market interest is at its lowest.

Risk-off sentiment is intensifying Escalation in the Middle East remains the main source of pressure on markets. Strikes on energy infrastructure are continuing, oil prices are rising, and there is still no clear end to the conflict. Powell’s hawkish tone at the Fed meeting only added to that pressure. He made it clear that rate cuts are unlikely amid rising prices and inflation. Markets are now pricing in just one cut, while some major banks expect zero cuts this year. All of this is weighing on risk assets, especially equities. In this backdrop, BTC is still showing a local safe-haven effect. Geopolitics is clearly reinforcing the broader risk-off mood. Crypto is not immune - liquidity-driven moves and manipulation are still part of the picture - but it continues to look relatively strong versus other risk assets, with BTC once again holding above 70K. Forecasting here is difficult because the situation can shift at any moment. As long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists, BTC will likely keep trading within the current range. Altcoin squeezes and pumps are not going anywhere, so we work with what the market gives us and reassess from there.

Markets are flying again Oil jumped to $108, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all under selling pressure. The move comes after Iran announced an attack on the largest gas field and promised retaliatory strikes on oil infrastructure. At the same time, U.S. PPI came in hotter than expected, rising 0.5% to 3.4% after forecasts called for it to hold at 2.9%. There are now less than 6 hours left until the Fed’s rate decision. Powell is reportedly urgently rewriting his remarks for the press conference.

CryptoQuant’s CEO is flagging the same thing many are seeing right now: a large share of crypto analysts currently holds a bullish outlook on BTC.

📢If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could spike ~150% to $175, marking the largest surge since the 1979 oil crisis.

BITCOIN IS AT A MASSIVE MULTI-YEAR SUPPORT. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED, BITCOIN WENT UP BY 450% 🔥 TIGHTEN YOUR SEATBELTS 🚀

More Bitcoin shorts were liquidated than longs over the past 7 days.

Americans now own more Bitcoin than gold

Some whale keeps accumulating ETH. Over the past 2 days, 11,629 ETH ($23.71M) were withdrawn from Binance to a new wallet (0xfDe8). At the same time, over the last 2 days, 63,324 ETH ($131.2M) were withdrawn from Kraken to another wallet (0x8E34).

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BTC > $69K at the NY open, while stocks continue to fall (−$900B at the open).

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Jet fuel in Europe is up 70% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. You can switch to electric cars, but electric planes haven’t been invented yet. The White House says the fighting could continue for around 100 more days.

Trump will send the U.S. Navy to secure tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz — Brent oil back to $80 Markets are stabilizing for now, but this is a promise, not a solution. The Strait of Hormuz is up to 160 km long, and its width ranges from 35 km to 100 km. Trump has set the task, but without control of the coastline, U.S. warships could become easy targets.

Crypto social media chatter about World War 3 has hit its highest level since June 2025 as the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate, per Santiment.

Military operation against Iran — what to expect now? What many had been warning about has happened: Israel and the U.S. have launched a military operation against Iran. Those who were following the situation saw this coming, so it’s hardly a surprise. Crypto reacted immediately with a drop. The stock market is closed — we’ll see its reaction on Monday. This situation is fundamentally different from previous “symbolic” strikes. We’re not talking about a one-off action, but an operation that could last for days. That means the risks and potential consequences are much more serious. There are several possible scenarios — ranging from a “mild shock” to a full-blown “black swan.” ⚪️ Mild shock: The operation goes according to plan, both sides exchange strikes and, as before, declare victory. Markets gradually stabilize. ⚪️ More severe scenario: The U.S. becomes more deeply involved and the conflict drags on. This increases market uncertainty, raises military spending, may lead to new sanctions, and potentially escalates tensions with China. ⚪️ Worst-case scenario: A combination of negative factors, plus Iran deciding to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of global oil supply passes. It’s not hard to imagine what that would mean for oil and commodity prices. From there, a domino effect could unfold. Which scenario ultimately plays out and how the conflict ends remains to be seen. In any case, it’s important to be prepared for different outcomes. But even moments like this create opportunities: discounts on BTC, or for active traders — volatility and short setups.

🇺🇸 President Trump cancels speech meant to address the nation today.