Data's Inner Circle 👑 (WILL NEVER DM YOU FIRST)

Whenever I call trades, speed will be everything. Make sure you have the best multichain Telegram bot set up beforehand 👇 Sigma Wallet: https://t.me/SigmaTrading3_bot?start=ref=CryptoData Sigma Tutorial: https://youtu.be/8veGEtVweV0?si=rx4tbwidjXZyzbL7 This is where I’ll post all direct buy links so you can enter instantly the moment calls are posted. Set up both an ETH and SOL wallet and fund them ahead of time. The next few months are going to be very lucrative 💎

I just got back from Miami Consensus and have some major alpha regarding a few projects. Stay tuned for another call within the next few days 💵 Let’s cook

📊 Market Update 📊 The market has been performing relatively well over the past few days after Trump sent a letter to Congress Friday telling lawmakers that "hostilities" with Iran "have terminated", invoking the ceasefire to argue the 60-day War Powers deadline doesn't apply, citing no exchange of fire since April 7th. The US Treasury simultaneously warned shippers Friday they could face sanctions if they pay Iran any tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Then Saturday we saw Spirit Airlines shut down operations entirely, becoming the first major US airline to fail in 25 years, which was a direct casualty of the war's jet fuel cost spike. Trump told reporters Saturday he is reviewing a fresh Iran proposal but called it "unsatisfactory" and said the US may be "better off" if no deal is reached. The volatility continues. Key News Events - Iran's parliament is poised to approve a new law placing restrictions on which vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli vessels would be permanently banned, and ships from "hostile countries" would owe reparations to obtain a permit. - The Trump administration fast-tracked roughly $9 billion in arms sales late Friday to Israel, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, bypassing congressional review by citing emergency authorization. We're seeing Gulf states quietly aligning under US security architecture even as UAE separately departed OPEC+ effective Friday. - CENTCOM reported Saturday the US blockade has redirected 48 Iranian-bound vessels over 20 days, with three turned back in the past 20 hours. Upcoming Events - May 1st - ISM Manufacturing PMI. UAE departure from OPEC+ effective. War Powers 60-day deadline. - May 15th - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends. Warsh transition. Summary ✍️ Despite stocks reaching ATHs Friday, Trump's "hostilities terminated" letter is a legal maneuver to extend War Powers authority, not a peace announcement. The blockade continues, Iran's parliament is codifying Hormuz restrictions, and the Pentagon says mine clearance takes six months post-war. None of that is priced in. For BTC, resilience through the weekend remains constructive. We have the market adage "Sell in May and go away" which will undoubtedly play a part in the price action this month. We also still have three live tail risks (Iran negotiation collapse, Lebanon ceasefire failure, and War Powers political fight), so manage risk accordingly. We're not out of the woods yet. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC closed the daily at 78.6k but may be rejecting here short-term as we head into Sunday which has historically been very volatile. The RSI is starting to cross below its moving average while the StochRSI is still in an upward trajectory with room to go. I'm expecting a potential pullback here to 77.2k before we see a bounce higher. Major support remains 78.2k, 76k, 73.6-72.8k, 70.8k, 68k, and 66k while major resistance remains 81-82k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH rejected off of its 100D EMA as it looks to be approaching our support zone again between 2240-2290. The RSI also rejected off of its moving average while the StochRSI maintains upward momentum. This is where patience pays and you wait for your entry at the support zone. If we close below the 50D EMA on the daily, then I would expect much lower. Major support remains 2290-2240, 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380-2420, 2550, 2750-2820.

📊 Market Update 📊 Stocks hit an all-time high yesterday as crypto still lags behind. Q1 GDP came in below estimates while PCE inflation arrived mostly in line. We also saw Brent crude briefly hit a four-year high overnight on an Axios report that CENTCOM Adm. Brad Cooper briefed Trump for 45 minutes on three new military options against Iran, which included a "short and powerful" wave of infrastructure strikes, taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz with possible ground forces, and a special forces operation to secure Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Key News Events - Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth says no War Powers approval needed; Richard Blumenthal warns Iran strike likely. The legal/political tension are rising fast. - Masoud Pezeshkian and Iranian leadership escalate rhetoric, vowing to defend nuclear/missile assets; IRGC threatens retaliation if conflict resumes. - United States Central Command blockade disrupting oil flows (tankers trapped); Iran rebuilding weapons with both sides preparing for renewed conflict. - Jobless claims at 57-year lows + weak GDP = stagflation-lite; Fed turning more hawkish as Jerome Powell transition approaches. Upcoming Events - May 1st - ISM Manufacturing PMI. XOM, CVX earnings. UAE departure from OPEC+ effective. War Powers 60-day deadline. Summary ✍️ The stock rally is fundamentally earnings-driven. GDP missed, PCE held, and the Mag-7 capex guidance came in massive. We saw Caterpillar and Eli Lilly lead traditional sector strength while Alphabet and Apple delivered the AI/services beats. But the macro backdrop is starting to turn again. Trump received the CENTCOM briefing on three concrete military options Thursday, and Hegseth simultaneously testified that no congressional authorization is needed to act. Brent hitting a four-year high overnight signals the energy market is pricing in resumption of combat operations, even as equities celebrate earnings. That divergence is unsustainable, as we've seen in the past. Either oil pulls back as a negotiated solution emerges, or equities catch down to oil's risk pricing. The Friday War Powers deadline is the hard catalyst. If Hegseth's "ceasefire nullifies the deadline" interpretation gets challenged in Congress, the political theater of the next 72 hours could shift sentiment fast. With that said, crypto is still exhibiting extreme resiliency. As we approach the weekend, expect much more volatility, especially after Friday's close. Manage risk accordingly and only take trades that align with your S/R lines and indicators. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC looks very bullish here but it needs to close above 78.2k for some follow-through. The StochRSI is oversold and crossing to the upside while the RSI is also close to crossing above its moving average. If BTC can get a close above 78.3k, then it will likely close the CME gap at 81k. Major support remains 76k, 73.6-72.8k, 70.8k, 68k, and 66k while major resistance remains 78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH also bounced perfectly off of our 2290-2240 support zone which we also mentioned in our last update. The StochRSI is now oversold and crossing to the upside while the RSI is close to crossing above its moving average. I'm expecting at least a retest of the 2380 resistance and possibly 2420, seeing as the indicators still have much more room to go to the upside. Major support remains 2290-2240, 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380-2420, 2550, 2750-2820.

🌴 Miami Consensus 2026 🌴 I'll be in Miami all next week for Consensus if anyone else is attending or in the area. With Dubai Token2049 cancelled, it's shaping up to be one of the biggest crypto gatherings this year with 500+ speakers and a strong turnout expected across builders, funds, and institutions: https://x.com/TheCryptoData/status/2049594843081396330?s=20 Should be a high-signal week with a lot happening both at the event and across side events. Let me know if you’re attending! 🤝

📊 Market Update 📊 The market had another shock on Tuesday as the United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1st. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the timing was deliberate and "the right time for it because it will have minimum impact on the price" given Hormuz is already constrained. The UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with capacity to nearly double its output to 5 million barrels per day. This caused most of the market to pull back initially. Trump and his national security team are reportedly skeptical of Iran's offer to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending the conflict. Today is the catalyst convergence. We have the FOMC decision, along with Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all reporting after the close. Pay attention. Key News Events - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady Tuesday in a split 6-3 vote with three dissenting members proposed hiking, citing Middle East tensions skewing price risks to the upside. The BOJ also cut its growth forecast for fiscal 2026 and sharply raised its core inflation outlook, well above its 2% target. - Several Mag-7 names are entering today's earnings which will have a cascading effect depending on the results - Elon Musk says AI "could kill us all" during OpenAI lawsuit testimony. - Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US is targeting Iran's "access to crypto." Upcoming Events Apr 29th - FOMC rate decision. MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN earnings after close. Apr 30th - AAPL, LLY earnings. Q1 GDP first estimate. PCE inflation data. Summary ✍️ The setup we have today is extremely binary. If MSFT, META, GOOGL, and AMZN all confirm strong AI capex guidance and Powell delivers a measured statement, we get a relief rally that takes us back to fresh highs. If any of those four guides disappoint or Powell sounds hawkish on inflation pass-through from the oil shock, we get a 2-3% pullback that breaks the rally structure. The Trump administration's hardening posture on Iran (Rubio Monday, Wicker Tuesday) suggests no diplomatic breakthrough this week, removing one potential bullish catalyst. You need to continue managing risk accordingly. Take profits, raise cash, and let the four catalysts (FOMC, four Mag-7 reports) resolve before re-engaging. The 24 hours from today's close through Thursday's open will set the tone for the entire month of May. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC bounced perfectly at our 76k support after sweeping below and tagging the liq cluster and CME gap that we mentioned in our last update. Pay attention to these updates. These are trades you can take. Now the StochRSI is getting close to oversold which could provide a further rally to 78k for the retest of resistance. Major support remains 76k, 73.6-72.8k, 70.8k, 68k, and 66k while major resistance remains 78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH also bounced perfectly off of our 2290-2240 support zone which we also mentioned in our last update. The StochRSI is now oversold while the RSI is close to crossing above its signal line. I'm expecting at least a retest of the 2380 resistance and possibly 2420, seeing as the indicators still have much more room to go to the upside. Major support remains 2290-2240, 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380-2420, 2550, 2750-2820.

Crypto is at a major decision point right now. After breaking down the full market in today’s weekly livestream inside Data’s Alpha Circle, here’s what matters: • BTC, ETH, SOL all approaching key levels • CME gaps still in play • Structure is tightening → big move coming • Liquidity building on both sides This is one of those moments where positioning matters. Full breakdown below👇 https://youtu.be/VgY20VPPfuk?si=HWUNG3luvKcQPDfs If you want the exact trades and live breakdowns: 💎 Join Data’s Alpha Circle: https://whop.com/datas-alpha-circle/gain-access-now/ Let’s capitalize on what’s coming 🤝

📊 Market Update 📊 The market has been extremely choppy lately after unexpected events over the weekend. Saturday night, there was a lone gunman that attempted to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondence Dinner but was shot and apprehended after wounding a Secret Service agent (saved by a bulletproof vest). Earlier Saturday, Trump abruptly canceled the planned Witkoff-Kushner trip to Pakistan, which dealt a major setback to peace prospects after Iranian FM Araghchi departed Islamabad having spoken only to Pakistani officials. Araghchi then returned to Pakistan Sunday despite the absence of US counterparts, and met the Sultan of Oman in Muscat. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is openly fraying as well. Lebanese health ministry said Israeli strikes Sunday killed 14 including two women and two children, with Netanyahu saying Hezbollah's actions are "in practice, dismantling the ceasefire." This will only drag the war on longer. Key News Events - This week is full of important earnings announcements for the Mag 7 stocks + FOMC and will determine whether the rally extends or breaks. - Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi traveled to Pakistan, then Russia, then Oman over the weekend as Tehran scrambles for diplomatic options after the Witkoff-Kushner cancellation. - Iran's spokesperson Baghaei explicitly said "no meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the US." - Iran's ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, told Russian state RT: "If they want war, we will fight." This is the diplomatic vacuum the market has been ignoring and it's gotten meaningfully worse over the weekend. Upcoming Events Apr 29th - FOMC rate decision. MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN earnings after close. Apr 30th - AAPL, LLY earnings. Q1 GDP first estimate. PCE inflation data. Summary ✍️ Even with all of the volatility, the stock market is going to enter Monday's session at all-time highs with uncertainty still surrounding the war. Wednesday will be jam-packed with the Mag-7 earnings and the FOMC meeting, which could have a large effect depending on Powell's outlook. Although the setup is asymmetric to the downside. Good news is fully priced in and bad news has multiple catalysts to crystallize against. For BTC, the relative resilience through the weekend's chaos is impressive. The decoupling from war headlines is the kind of structural shift that matters for the institutional thesis. But if equities crack on Wednesday's combined catalysts, the correlation will likely reassert temporarily. Onchain is still heating up but continue to manage risk approximately, take profits along the way, and always wait for confluence between your S/R lines and indicators. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 We're starting to see slight bearish divergence on BTC which could take us back down to 76k (also aligns which liquidity areas and a CME gap). The RSI is starting to cross below its moving average and the StochRSI is also exhibiting bearish momentum. Seeing everything we have this week, it pays to be risk off and continue to play everything level by level. Major support remains 76k, 73.6-72.8k, 70.8k, 68k, and 66k while major resistance remains 78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH also rejected off of its resistance at 2380 and could not close above. Now I'm waiting for it to reach its next support zone between 2240 to 2290. We also have the RSI rejecting off of its moving average and the StochRSI crossing to the downside as well (but getting close to oversold). I'm being patient here until we reach support. Major support remains 2290-2240, 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.

📊 Market Update 📊 Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire Tuesday night, just hours before the Wednesday deadline, citing Iran's "seriously fractured" government and a request from Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir and PM Sharif. Due to this, we saw a nice relief rally in the market. Relief that strikes weren't resuming, plus a strong batch of stock earnings. But the headline story was undermined within hours after Iran's IRGC attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday morning and seized two of them. Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran welcomes dialogue but "breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations." White House spokesperson Leavitt said Trump does not view the seizures as a ceasefire violation because they were "international vessels," and said there is "no time frame" on the conflict. The Vance-led Islamabad talks have also collapsed. Key News Events - The UK and France are hosting a two-day conference of military planners from 30+ countries at an RAF base north of London to design a multinational mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The challenge is removing undersea mines Iran is believed to have planted. UK officials caution any plan only takes effect after a "sustained ceasefire." - EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the Hormuz "daily U-turns" reckless and said the EU is widening sanctions on Tehran. Panama's Foreign Ministry called Iran's seizures "a grave attack against maritime security." China's Foreign Ministry said the priority is preventing a resumption of hostilities. - Iran's death toll has reached nearly 3,400 per Iran's forensics chief, up from 3,300 just days ago. Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf reiterated that a full ceasefire only makes sense if the US blockade is lifted, restating the same structural impasse that sank Islamabad. The blockade continues unabated. Upcoming Events - Apr 24th - PMI data - Apr 26-27th - Israel-Lebanon ceasefire window expires. Summary ✍️ Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely was the relief catalyst the market needed, and Wednesday's record close confirms institutional money believes the war ends with negotiations instead of attacks. The risk is that Iran's IRGC and political leadership are not aligned, and individual incidents could escalate beyond what the diplomatic track can absorb. Today we have more stock earnings (INTL) which could add to the volatility, especially as we're getting close to the "Sell in May and go away" narrative. Continue to manage risk accordingly as we know how quickly things can change. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC closed the daily below 78.3K, which leads me to believe 76K is most likely in play before we have a bounce. The RSI is crossing to the downside, getting closer to its moving average, while the StochRSI is forming a bearish divergence. I would remain patient here until we can get a daily close back above 78.3K, and until then, wait for the long lower. Major support remains 76k, 73.6-72.8k, 70.8k, 68k, and 66k while major resistance remains 78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH also rejected off of its resistance at 2380 and could not close above. Now I'm waiting for it to reach its next support zone between 2240 to 2290. We also have the RSI rejecting off of its moving average and the StochRSI crossing to the downside as well. Major support remains 2290-2240, 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.

Hope everyone is enjoying the profits on PEACE ☮️ We’ve already had tweets from CGJ (866k followers), OD (165k followers), and Bagcalls (98k followers): - https://x.com/cryptogodjohn/status/2046801111466578026 - https://x.com/overdose_ai/status/2046810237710074318 - https://x.com/bagcalls/status/2046802350338154907 And this was just today. Much much higher 💵

🚨 THIS IS ONE OF THE WILDEST NARRATIVES RIGHT NOW Trump just hinted at UFO file disclosure, and a coin tied to this narrative just did 76x in 3 days 👽 $MAGA (Make Aliens Great Again) https://x.com/TheCryptoData/status/2046729719932981583?s=20 I just broke down: • Why this is pumping • How far it could go (100M+?) • What to watch next 🎥 Watch here: https://youtu.be/zoN7e34XMrM?si=fAlS8sJ1SC1qKqi9

RALLY hit an ATH yesterday and has now increased over 288% from our entry 💎 A few updates: - Listed on Coingecko - Mainnet launches within 3 weeks - Points go towards your share of a 5% $RALLY airdrop for beta testers - More whales getting in https://x.com/Rally_Markets/status/2045880600129937504?s=20 There's been plenty of opportunities to make profit, but I still believe this goes higher. Great team, a lot of backers, and legitimate tech. With mainnet just around the corner, it's only a matter of time. More plays are on the way, stay tuned ↗️

PEACE is already up 25% since my video released and it's just getting started 💵 CGJ (860k followers) just posted about PEACE being his last core holding for his bags and is extremely bullish on the narrative: https://x.com/CryptoGodJohn/status/2046331755821465842?s=20 10mil will be the floor soon, and those who bought at the when I mentioned, are already sitting in nice profits. Also, RALLY hit ATHs of 649k mcap (3x from where I told everyone to enter), so the gains keep coming 🤝 If you're not in PEACE already, then wait for a dip to 6.5mil and 5.3mil, but this should go much further. Hope everyone has been enjoying the profits. Drop an emoji if you want more 💎

🚨 THIS COIN JUST DID 4,000% IN 4 DAYS PEACE (Peace Frog) is exploding right now, and it’s still gaining momentum. It’s tapping into: • Meme culture (Pepe) • Peace narrative (macro) • Viral attention from big accounts 🎥 Watch the full breakdown below: https://youtu.be/rHinN8ohCIM?si=40puRar38Nrhd57Q 📈 In this video I explain: • The lore behind PEACE • Why it’s pumping • What levels to watch Most people won’t see this until it’s too late.

RALLY gave you another chance for entry at 200k before a 164% move (if you didn't get in the first time). And they still have plenty of bullish catalysts to come: https://x.com/Rally_Markets/status/2045880600129937504?s=20 • Mainnet launching within 3 weeks • 500+ TG members • 1K+ followers on X • 600+ holders • 170+ traders testing in beta • Extensive roadmap I share these opportunities so everyone has a chance to profit. Drop an emoji if you'd like me to share more alpha plays in the future 💎

🚨 ELON JUST SENT A COIN UP 700% After Elon Musk responded “yes” to making “Asteroid” the SpaceX mascot, the token exploded. Watch the heartwarming story below 👇 🎥 Full breakdown: https://youtu.be/e9olQdZ5xGs?si=nhsHYCyirASEXw6B 📈 In this video: • What actually happened • Why it pumped 700% • The power of viral narratives • What this means for traders

📊 Market Update 📊 The market had an amazing day yesterday with the catalyst being Iran's FM Araghchi declaring the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial traffic for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire. Oil crashed after this news and everything else rallied. But late Friday night, Trump said negotiations will continue through the weekend, but then added the ceasefire expiring Wednesday "may not be extended." His exact words: "Maybe I won't extend it. So, you have a blockade, and unfortunately we'll have to start dropping bombs again." Trump also said the US naval blockade "will remain in full force" until a peace deal is reached, despite Hormuz being declared open. Iran threatened "necessary measures" if the blockade isn't lifted, potentially closing it again. This weekend will undoubtedly be full of volatility. Key News Events - Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged European countries to quickly decide on reimposing sanctions against Iran, warning that Iran is violating the existing agreement and nearing the capability to develop a nuclear weapon. Rubio later clarified that Iran can have a civilian nuclear energy program but not a military WMD program. This is the diplomatic pressure track running parallel to the military blockade, and it signals the US is preparing for a scenario where Iran doesn't accept the terms by Wednesday. - Satellite imagery shows the Sirri Island oil refinery on fire as of April 15th, and the Lavan oil refinery 95 miles away was hit in an April 8th strike causing a massive oil spill visible from space. - Iran's FM spokesperson Baghaei said compensation for war damages is one of Iran's top priorities in any negotiations with the US. Iran has also insisted on sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and continued uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. The gap between these Iranian demands and the US red lines (zero enrichment, no reparations, no frozen asset release) remains the structural obstacle to any comprehensive deal. Upcoming Events - This weekend - US-Iran negotiations continuing per Trump. Potential framework announcement. - Apr 22nd - Two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires. Extension or fighting resumes. Summary ✍️ Trump's late Friday comments will be the wild card moving into next week. He's using maximum pressure to force a deal in the next 72 hours before Wednesday's expiry. The fact that he's also saying the blockade stays "in full force" until a peace deal is signed suggests the Friday Hormuz reopening was a tactical Iranian concession, not a strategic breakthrough. Add in Rubio pushing European sanctions, the 3,300+ Iran death toll emerging, and Rezaei saying Iran won't extend without Hormuz sovereignty, and the scenario where Wednesday produces a ceasefire collapse and renewed strikes becomes real again. As always, manage risk accordingly, and take profits along the way. We know how volatile weekends can be and how quickly things can turn. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC ended up tagging its 78.2k resistance perfectly before rejecting. Its RSI is nearly overbought and its StochRSI is overbought while now crossing to the downside. This is when I would expect us to have a reset in price soon, potentially to 75k, if not 73.6k. We've had quite the run recently, so a reset before higher would make sense. Although if we close the daily above 78.3k then I expect we'll fill the CME gap near 81k. Major support remains 76k, 72.8-73.6k, 70.8k, 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH closed above its 2380 resistance but is potentially closing back below it (we'll have to wait until the end of the day if it's confirmed). The RSI is very close to crossing below its moving average and the StochRSI is now crossing to the downside as well, both exhibiting very bearish momentum if confirmed. If we do close below 2380 then I would expect 2290 at the very least, if not a full reset at 2180. Major support remains 2180, 2100, 2000, &1940, while major resistance remains 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.

🚨 CRYPTO DAILY ALPHA BRIEF — PEACE DEAL + ON-CHAIN SURGE Something is shifting. Peace talks are progressing… On-chain activity is heating up… And liquidity is building. This is exactly how big moves start. 🎥 Watch here https://youtu.be/CbXdhx_GD1E?si=PPBpF2epNbQcZhXQ 📈 Covered in this video: • Peace deal implications (macro) • On-chain activity surge • Liquidity + positioning • BTC, ETH, SOL key levels • ETF flows + sentiment Enjoy 🤝

📊 Market Update 📊 The market had an amazing pump yesterday as hope renews for a potential negotiation on the horizon between the US and Iran. Trump said the war is "very close to over" and predicted an "amazing two days ahead," though he acknowledged "it could end either way." A second round of direct US-Iran peace talks could resume as early as this week per NBC News, with Pakistani officials expected in Tehran Wednesday to facilitate. Trump also said China "is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz" and that Xi agreed not to send weapons to Iran. CENTCOM also declared "maritime superiority" with the blockade "fully implemented" within 36 hours which helps ease tensions. Key News Events - Trump said the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today "for the first time in 34 years" as the two countries discuss a possible ceasefire, though neither side has publicly confirmed. - Senate Republicans voted down 47-52 a Democratic resolution to prohibit Trump from taking further military action in Iran. Rand Paul was the only Republican voting yes; Fetterman was the only Democrat voting no. The vote affirms that Trump retains full authorization for military action if the ceasefire collapses or negotiations fail. This removes a potential Congressional check on escalation and gives the White House maximum flexibility heading into the final week before the ceasefire expires. - Iran and the UAE held phone talks Wednesday about reducing regional tensions, with UAE VP Mansour bin Zayed speaking with Iran's Ghalibaf per Iranian state media. This is the first known high-level Iran-UAE diplomatic engagement since the war began. The Gulf states were among Iran's retaliatory targets, so any thaw between Tehran and Abu Dhabi is a meaningful signal that regional de-escalation is gaining traction beyond just the US track. Upcoming Events - Apr 16th - Potential Israel-Lebanon leader call. - Apr 17th - Potential second-round US-Iran talks. - Apr 21-22nd - Two-week ceasefire expires. Extension or deal needed. Summary ✍️ The market is fully pricing in the end of the Iran war, not because it's over, but because it believes it will be over soon. Trump saying the war is "very close to over" while Pakistani officials fly to Tehran and a second round of talks is imminent is exactly the setup that took the Tradfi markets to new highs. That's a rally driven almost entirely by geopolitical de-escalation narrative. If the ceasefire gets extended or a deal framework emerges in the next few days, then I would expect much higher. We're also seeing old wallets buy and onchain activity heat up again. If the second-round talks collapse or the April 21st ceasefire expires without extension, then the market will likely give back most of this move. If the deal happens, we could more ATHs for the S&P. As always, manage risk accordingly, and wait until your indicators and S/R lines are in confluence. 📊 BTC Analysis 📊 BTC bounced nicely off of our 73.6k support but still needs to close above the 76k resistance for me to remain bullish. Its StochRSI is extremely overbought which could lead to much further downside if a resolution isn't reached in the near future for the war. I'm expecting us to range here until we either close below 72.8k or above 76k. Major support remains 72.8-73.6k, 70.8k, 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k. 📊 ETH Analysis 📊 ETH rejected off of our 2380 resistance multiple times so far while its StochRSI is also overbought and crossing to the downside. I would at least expect a retest of the 2290 support before thinking about higher. That would lead the StochRSI to reset below 80 and make room for further upside. A close above 2380 and 2550 would be my next target. Major support remains 2180, 2100, 2000, 1940, and 1830, while major resistance remains 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.

I am looking at Kite here if the market goes even more risk on I think AI and AI agents will have another run. Maybe FET can break resistance and TAO have a little relief 👀💸