Data's Inner Circle 👑 (WILL NEVER DM YOU FIRST)
کانال بسته
https://x.com/TheCryptoData The Inner Circle is where I share my thought process on the overall market, including technical analysis, altcoins, and narrative rotations 💎 Nothing shared is financial/investment advice and should not be taken as such.
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BTC TP2 Hit at 79.1k! ✅
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BTC TP1 Hit at 80.7k! ✅
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📊 Market Update | September 3rd
Fear and Greed rose from 63 to 65, still Greed, as the crypto market rose across every major. Fed Governor Waller said he would back a hold on September 16th if disinflation continues, and September hike odds fell to 48% from near 70%.
📰 Key News Events
• August CPI lands Friday September 11th and Waller said his vote depends on it, the last data before the Fed decides.
• Brent crude rose to near $99 as Iran struck US assets across the Gulf, so inflation builds even as hike odds fall.
• Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all traded above Wednesday's high, breaking a three session range.
• Shorts were forced to buy back as price cleared $80,000, so part of the move was covering, not fresh buying.
✍️ Summary
I am bullish again, and Waller changed yesterday's neutral read. Every major is over 15% above its 50 day average. Bid pullbacks into major support on the daily and weekly.
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📊 Market Update | September 2nd
Fear and Greed eased from 69 to 63, still Greed, as the crypto market fell across every major. US and Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent crude 2% to $96.59, and costlier oil feeds inflation.
📰 Key News Events
• $369.67 million of leveraged positions were liquidated today, so most of the fall was forced selling.
• September rate hike odds are near 70%. A 10-year yield of 4.80% keeps cash paying more than it has since January 2025.
• The SEC proposed transfer agent rules for public blockchains and tokenised stocks, not waiting on Congress.
• Hyperliquid unlocks 9.92 million HYPE Sunday September 6th, the largest of roughly $1.5 billion this month.
✍️ Summary
I am leaning neutral. Bitcoin and Ethereum hold support while Solana is under $100, so the majors disagree. Friday's jobs report is what breaks these ranges. Bid major support on the daily and weekly.
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📊 Market Update | September 1st
Fear and Greed rose from 61 to 70, deeper into Greed, as the crypto market fell across every major. Oil rose 2.29% on Strait of Hormuz strikes, September rate hike odds climbed to 68% from 57%, and the 10-year yield at 4.78% is its highest since January 2025.
📰 Key News Events
• Injective halted its chain for four hours after a $4.9 million exploit, the second chain attacked in two days.
• Citi, Goldman Sachs and other global banks are building a stablecoin to compete with Tether and Circle.
• North Korean linked wallets moved $30 million through Hyperliquid in three weeks, selling Bitcoin for Ethereum.
• Robinhood Chain earned $2.66 million in fees in 24 hours, more than Ethereum, and Arbitrum's token rose 30%.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Every major sits under a level it held last week, and the Fed decides on September 16th. Bid major support on the daily and weekly.
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📊 Market Update | August 31st
Fear and Greed cooled from 68 to 61, still Greed. The crypto market gave back its weekend gains after US and Iranian strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil rose 3.6% to $86.39, which feeds the inflation the Fed watches most. September hike odds are 57%, a coin flip.
📰 Key News Events
• Cronos halted its blockchain after a $75 million exploit of its lending app Tectonic, freezing funds there.
• Strategy bought 4,603 Bitcoin for $369.7 million, its treasury now 845,050 BTC.
• Bitmine added 53,501 Ethereum, its largest buy since June, lifting holdings near 5% of supply.
• A Flow EVM lending app lost $9.3 million to staked token collateral, the third such exploit in five days.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana rolled out of overbought as volume fell through the move higher. Bitcoin is strongest, down the least. Bid major support on the daily and weekly.
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📊 Market Update | August 30th
Fear and Greed rose to 68 and is still in Greed. The crypto market added to last week's bounce over the weekend as stocks fell on Friday. September rate hike odds near 56% keep cash paying a return that competes with crypto.
📰 Key News Events
• Abraxas, Fasanara and Wintermute hold $603 million of shorts on Hyperliquid to collect funding, not to bet lower.
• Galaxy Research and CryptoQuant both place Bitcoin's cycle low between September and November, Galaxy at $40,000.
• A Rain card exploit drained $1.1 million on Solana programs, hitting 2,321 users who will be repaid.
• The SEC cleared Evernorth, so shareholders vote September 30th on a Nasdaq XRP treasury listing.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are overbought and volume is falling. Ethereum is strongest, the only major to reclaim a big weekly level. Bid major support on the daily and weekly.
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📊 Market Update | August 29th
Fear and Greed fell to 67 from 72 and is still in Greed, while the crypto market held Friday's ranges all weekend. September rate hike odds sit near 56%, up from about 30% before Fed chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, and higher rates pay people to hold cash over crypto.
📰 Key News Events
• Solana validators passed SGP-0002 by 0.33%, cutting 18.9 million SOL from future supply.
• Coinbase and Better launched mortgages taking Bitcoin as down payment collateral instead of forcing a sale.
• Wintermute sent 3,834 Bitcoin worth $257 million to Binance and holds a reported $191 million short.
• The CLARITY Act faces its first Senate vote September 15th, a day before the Fed meets.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are all overbought while volume keeps falling. Keep bids at major support on the daily and weekly, and buy only when your indicators agree.
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+3
📊 Market Update | August 28th
Fear and Greed reads 72, still in Greed, but the crypto market gave back this week's gains. Fed chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole the Fed has more work to do on inflation. September rate hike odds rose to 45.7% from 35.4%, and higher rates pay people to hold cash rather than crypto.
📰 Key News Events
• Coinbase's Bitcoin premium turned positive for the first time in 40 days, so US buying is back.
• The Clarity Act was pushed to September, delaying America's crypto market structure bill.
• Solana's governance vote favours faster supply cuts, while its $800,000 daily burn plan trails.
• Kraken briefly locked users out when sanctioned transactions flooded its screening.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Everything I cover is overbought after a run volume never backed, and Bitcoin and Solana lost yesterday's lows. Ethereum is holding up best. Keep orders at major support on the daily and weekly, and buy only when your indicators agree.
+3
📊 Market Update | August 27th
Fear and Greed rose to 70 from 64, still in Greed, and the crypto market is higher. The lift came from outside crypto: Nvidia beat earnings, guided to $108 billion next quarter and rose 8%, pulling technology stocks and Bitcoin with it.
📰 Key News Events
• Fed chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday, his clearest signal yet on rates.
• Moonwell lost $8.7 million on Base after someone inflated the thinly traded MAMO token and borrowed Bitcoin against it.
• Britain will give the Bank of England a legal duty to support stablecoins, a first for a major central bank.
• Bitcoin ETF inflows are on their longest daily run since April, steady demand, not one big day.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Everything I cover is overbought and volume has shrunk for a week, so there is less real buying than the price suggests. Solana showed the real strength. I want price back at major support on the daily and weekly before I buy.
+3
📊 Market Update | August 26th
Fear and Greed fell to 64 from 73, still Greed, and the crypto market pulled back after last week's run. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, came in at 3.3% for July, unchanged and well above the 2% target. That keeps another rate hike on the table this year.
📰 Key News Events
• Bitcoin gave back part of its 23% week, but August ETF inflows passed $3 billion, so buyers have not left.
• Bernstein expects Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027, betting money keeps leaving weakening currencies.
• The SEC sent its crypto custody rules to the White House, a step toward letting advisers hold coins directly.
• XRP's 44% rally has Binance leverage at a 7 month high, with longs 2 to 1 over shorts, so a sharp drop is more likely.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. This is the pause I expected yesterday, and the three majors are overbought, so I am not chasing. Ethereum is holding up best. Bid major support on the daily and weekly charts.
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🔴 LIMIT SHORT - ETH
🔴 PRICE - 2750-2820
🔴 LEVERAGE - 5-10x
TP1 - 2685
TP2 - 2610
TP3 - 2550
TP4 - Keep 10% for a moonbag
Stop Loss - Daily close above 2870
Reason: ETH looks like it wants one more impulse move higher before a pullback. Its StochRSI is reset below 80 but its RSI is still overbought, so if we do have another move higher, I'm betting we'll reject off of the next major weekly resistance then lower. I still have limit orders for our BTC short which barely missed our entry before reversing to the downside. As always, manage your risk, DCA accordingly, and only invest what you can afford to lose.
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+3
📊 Market Update | August 25th
Fear and Greed eased to 73 from 74, still Greed, and the crypto market stalled after last week's run. The Treasury doubled its long dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion, pulling the 10-year yield to 4.66%. A lower yield leaves cash paying less, so money moves into stocks and crypto.
📰 Key News Events
• Bitcoin's 25% weekly rise was a short squeeze, $4 billion of shorts liquidated. Forced buying is not new demand.
• Solana ETFs took in $33.5 million Monday, the biggest day of 2026, a record $1.22 billion total.
• A 3% token move set off $36 million of Ethereum DeFi liquidations, so that collateral is thin.
• Coinbase launched tokenized Apple, Nvidia and Meta shares on Base, moving stock fees on chain.
✍️ Summary
I am cautious. Every major I follow is overbought, and Bitcoin and Ethereum both failed at yesterday's highs, so I expect a pause. Solana still draws fresh ETF money. Bid major support on the daily and weekly charts.
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🔴 LIMIT SHORT - BTC
🔴 PRICE - 82-83k
🔴 LEVERAGE - 5-10x
TP1 - 80.7k
TP2 - 79.1k
TP3 - 78.3k
TP4 - Keep 10% for a moonbag
Stop Loss - Daily close above 84.9k
Reason: BTC has been on a tear for the past 6 days straight but all of its indicators are overbought and we're entering Extreme Greed on the sentiment index. I believe this is the last impulse move higher before we have a pullback. A lot of people are getting euphoric and there's only so much liquidity to the upside until MMs bring us back down. As always, manage risk accordingly, DCA along the way, and only invest what you can afford to lose.
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+3
📊 Market Update | August 24th
Fear and Greed rose to 74 from 67, still Greed, and the crypto market extended last week's rally, Bitcoin's biggest weekly dollar gain ever. Friday brings Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair and the core PCE inflation report. The 10-year yield has fallen to 4.71%, cutting what cash pays and pushing money into risk.
📰 Key News Events
• Strategy raised $2 billion selling MSTR shares into a cash pool, a buffer at the biggest Bitcoin treasury.
• Bitmine bought 32,447 ETH, $81 million, its biggest weekly buy since July.
• A Solana validator vote would lift daily SOL burns to $800,000 and tighten supply.
• Standard Chartered is the first bank distributing a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin.
✍️ Summary
I am tentatively bullish after Bitcoin and Ethereum cleared yesterday's highs, but I am not buying up here. All three majors are overbought, Ethereum strongest, Solana weakest. Bid major support on the daily and weekly charts.
🚨 Weekly Market Overview Is Live!
BTC tagged $79.1K live after 4 straight green days 🚀
Inside:
🔥 $337M liquidated
📈 5 straight days of ETF inflows
😨 Fear & Greed at 80
💸 BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE TA
🎯 My $80.7K–$82K short zone
📺 Watch now: https://youtu.be/J9phsMvs8p0?si=RQc-YtMB5NMup1t8
+3
📊 Market Update | August 23rd
Fear and Greed cooled to 67 from 70, still in Greed. The crypto market put in its strongest week in two years while the stock market fell, after Wednesday's Treasury bond buyback lowered borrowing costs.
📰 Key News Events
• The Senate's first CLARITY Act vote is September 15th, and it needs 60 votes to open debate.
• Term Labs lost $8.5 million to an attacker who bought enough voting power to control four of its five USDC vaults. The code itself never broke.
• XRP is up near 40% on the week, HYPE, ZEC and LINK above 30%. Money is rotating into smaller names.
• Crypto card spending passed $1 billion in July, 70% funded by stablecoins. Real spending, not speculation.
✍️ Summary
I stay cautious. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are all overbought, though the uptrend is intact and Ethereum is the least overbought. Bid only major support on the daily and weekly charts into Friday's core PCE report and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
+3
📊 Market Update | August 22nd
Fear and Greed is at 70, deep in Greed, and the crypto market gave back part of this week's rally overnight. The rally came from a Treasury buyback change that lowered borrowing costs. The 10 year yield ended Friday at 4.74%, near a twenty month high, so cash competes with riskier assets.
📰 Key News Events
• The Sandbox shut its Base and BNB Chain bridges after an exploit and told holders to avoid SAND.
• Zcash jumped 48% to over $800 on a Grayscale spot ETF filing, money rotating to single names.
• BitMart may partly restart and pay creditors, with a plan due September 9th.
• Kalshi is blocked in several US states as the CFTC writes prediction market rules.
✍️ Summary
I leaned neutral yesterday, cautious today. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are all overbought at once, and Solana is strongest. Bid only major support on the daily and weekly charts into Wednesday's core PCE report and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28th.
