Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – October 29, 2025 All eyes on Powell: guidance to drive post-Fed market reaction Markets are poised for the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut today, but the focus is squarely on Jerome Powell’s guidance. With the U.S. government shutdown depriving policymakers of key data, Powell’s comments on the path to December 10 will steer sentiment across asset classes. U.S. equity futures edge higher after the S&P 500 topped 6,900 for the first time, while anticipation builds around mega-cap tech earnings and potential progress in U.S.–China trade talks. With investors keeping measured risk exposure low, forward guidance takes precedence over the rate move in shaping market reactions. Crypto trades broadly in step with global markets. Total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.81 trillion, even as U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $202 million and Ethereum ETFs $246 million in net inflows on Tuesday — signaling sustained institutional allocation despite softer turnover. The underlying bid suggests investors are positioning for a post-Fed relief move if Powell signals further policy flexibility despite limited data. A 25-basis-point cut narrows the cost of capital — Powell’s tone sets the cost of conviction. Bitcoin Bitcoin holds near $113,000, consolidating below $115,000 ahead of the FOMC decision. Price action remains confined between $111,000 and $117,000, reflecting light positioning and compressed implied volatility as traders await clarity from the Fed. ETF inflows continue to support a stable base, though momentum remains subdued. A dovish cut combined with a hint of December easing could prompt a break above resistance, while a cautious Powell risks another retest of support near $111,000. Open interest clustering around current levels of $35 billlion signals scope for short-term volatility once the statement and press conference hit. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum trades around $4,000, with majors softer into the Fed meeting. Altcoins mostly track broader risk sentiment, though Solana stands out after its spot ETF debut drew roughly $69.5 million in first-day inflows — the strongest ETF launch volume of the year. The showing highlights growing institutional appetite for alternative exposures even in a risk-off setup. Macro & Institutional The rate cut is fully priced, but the reaction function is not. With both labor and inflation data unavailable due to the shutdown, Powell faces the challenge of offering guidance without fresh economic inputs. Markets will key in on whether he signals an end to quantitative tightening, adjusts inflation rhetoric, or keeps December easing on the table. Beyond the Fed, geopolitical momentum builds as President Trump’s Asia tour fuels expectations of an easing in U.S.–China trade tensions. Nvidia remains the equity market’s bellwether, inching toward a $5 trillion valuation on speculation of relaxed export controls. Oil prices are steady after inventory draws, while gold has reclaimed the $4,000 per ounce level as investors hedge policy uncertainty and rising volatility risk. Looking Ahead This week delivers one of the heaviest macro calendars of the quarter, assuming scheduled data releases proceed despite the ongoing government shutdown. The Fed’s rate decision and press conference lead the lineup on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, U.S. Q3 GDP, and the European Central Bank meeting on October 30. China’s Manufacturing PMI arrives on October 31, ahead of the U.S. Core PCE, PCE Price Index, and Chicago PMI later that day. With multiple central banks in play and critical data at risk of delay, markets could remain range-bound into the decision before a potential relief rally if Powell strikes a dovish tone. A cautious stance, however, may keep volatility contained until the next key policy catalyst on December 10. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 28, 2025 Bitcoin builds on Fed catalyst anticipation Bitcoin begins the week steady near $114,500, extending its recovery from the $108,000 lows as renewed ETF inflows and macro positioning set the tone ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. The broader crypto market cap holds around $3.86 trillion, reflecting resilience amid policy uncertainty. Traditional markets opened the week cautiously firmer, with U.S. equities edging higher on expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut, Treasury yields stabilizing near two-month lows, and the dollar holding steady after last week’s softening. Gold trades slightly higher in the same environment, supported by easing real yields and investor preference for hedging ahead of the policy window. The macro setup remains tightly connected to digital assets—front-end guidance transmits through real yields and the dollar into ETF allocations and derivatives leverage, making this week’s tone from Chair Powell pivotal for near-term market direction. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s clearest sign of recovery is the $149 million in fresh ETF inflows over recent sessions, reversing prior outflows and signaling renewed institutional appetite. The asset currently trades around $114,500, consolidating within a narrow band after its climb from $108K earlier in the month. U.S. spot funds have oscillated between sharp withdrawals and inflows through October, but momentum has turned positive as positioning rebuilds into the Fed event. Spot buying and selling appear largely balanced, with daily volumes hovering around $5 billion on each side, suggesting a stable market structure as traders await a policy catalyst. Derivatives positioning is elevated, with rising open interest and modestly positive funding rates indicating steady long exposure but little excess. The current setup leaves Bitcoin sensitive to macro catalysts, where even small policy surprises could produce amplified two-way volatility around the decision window. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s tone, underpinned by $133 million in ETF inflows that reinforce the recovery narrative. The asset trades above $4,100, supported by stable open interest and reduced liquidations following last week’s brief risk-off episode. Broader altcoin participation remains limited as traders await macro clarity, though a dovish Fed signal could unlock short-term rotation into higher-beta assets and improve breadth across the crypto complex. Macro & Institutional Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with guidance and tone now more influential than the move itself. A cautious 25-bp cut would anchor front-end expectations and keep yields flat to slightly lower, favoring range-bound trading with dip-buying interest. A more dovish tone could pull real yields down, soften the dollar, and widen ETF participation, opening a 6–12% upside window over the following 72 hours. Conversely, a hold or firm tone would lift real yields and strengthen the dollar, historically a combination that pressures ETF flows and prompts downside corrections. Looking Ahead The week ahead offers one of the richest macro lineups of the quarter. The U.S. Consumer Confidence report arrives today, followed by the Fed interest-rate decision and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan announces its policy outcome before the U.S. Q3 GDP print, and the European Central Bank delivers its own decision and press briefing. Friday brings the China Manufacturing PMI, followed by the U.S. Core PCE, PCE Price Index, and Chicago PMI, rounding out a dense macro sequence that could reshape cross-asset positioning. As one key takeaway: Bitcoin’s next leg depends less on the cut itself and more on how the Fed defines the path ahead. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 27, 2025 Crypto gains ground ahead of a heavy macro week Crypto markets are starting the week on a firm footing, with total capitalization edging up to $3.88 trillion. Bitcoin futures open interest climbed above $36 billion, marking a steady rise over the past week and signaling renewed institutional and speculative engagement. Ethereum is following suit, with open interest above $24 billion, reflecting growing conviction across the broader market. ETF flows closed the week mixed — Bitcoin ETFs recorded $90 million in net inflows on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs saw $93 million in outflows, highlighting the market’s tilt toward Bitcoin exposure ahead of a dense macro calendar. The rebound follows improving sentiment on U.S.–China trade progress and rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut this week. Traditional markets are echoing that optimism. Equities hover near record highs on solid earnings and easing inflation, bond yields remain anchored, gold is easing as risk appetite improves, and the dollar has softened ahead of major central bank decisions. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed ground above $115,000 as last week’s short squeeze matured into a steadier advance. The rally has been led by spot accumulation rather than leverage, supported by subdued funding and consistent ETF demand. On-chain data show that aggressive selling has largely subsided, while flattened cumulative volume delta suggests sellers are finally exhausted. The setup highlights a classic imbalance: ETF demand is steady while supply on exchanges isn’t — a bullish asymmetry that continues to define this cycle. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum climbed toward $4,200, tracking Bitcoin’s move with balanced funding and growing spot participation — evidence of a recovery built on conviction rather than leverage. Solana has reclaimed the $200 level, while XRP and BNB added modest gains, reflecting a broad recovery across large caps. With front-end volatility softening even as spot prices rise, dips are no longer generous opportunities. If volatility continues to compress after the Fed, rotation could broaden across high-liquidity names, with Layer-2 ecosystems likely to lead momentum into November. Macro & Institutional Institutional participation remains robust. Strategy, the world’s largest bitcoin-treasury company, added 390 BTC (~$43 million) at an average of $111,117, lifting total holdings to 640,808 BTC for roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s capped supply. The acquisition reinforces the view that treasuries keep stacking while circulating float keeps shrinking. At the fund level, digital asset investment products saw $921 million in weekly inflows, reversing the prior week’s outflows. Bitcoin products led the charge, while Ethereum vehicles recorded their first net outflow in five weeks — a sign that capital rotation remains disciplined rather than speculative. Looking Ahead The spotlight this week falls squarely on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in another 25-basis-point cut, with attention shifting to how Chair Powell frames the balance between slowing growth and sticky inflation. A more dovish tone could extend the current risk-on momentum, while any hint of caution might cool the rally across both equities and digital assets. Liquidity remains the key variable — easing policy would reinforce the view that monetary conditions are turning from headwind to tailwind, particularly for high-beta assets like Bitcoin. Beyond the Fed, investors will digest a full slate of data and central bank updates: U.S. New Home Sales (Mon), Consumer Confidence (Tue), GDP (Thu), Core PCE and PCE Price Index (Fri), as well as BoJ and ECB decisions on Thursday and China’s Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Together, these releases will test whether the market’s optimism can transition into a more durable phase of global reflation. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 24, 2025 Softer U.S. Inflation reinforces rate-cut outlook; bitcoin holds above $111,000 The crypto market traded steadily on Friday, with total capitalization hovering around $3.76 trillion after the release of the September U.S. CPI report, the first major data since the federal shutdown. The figures showed inflation cooling slightly below expectations, confirming that price pressures continue to ease ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 meeting. Headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, just under the 3.1% forecast, while core inflation held steady at 3.0%. Month-on-month, prices increased 0.3%, matching August’s moderation and signaling that inflation is easing even if the Fed’s 2% target remains distant. The data reinforced expectations for policy easing, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October and another on December 10. Bitcoin Bitcoin held its ground above $111,000, signaling that the softer CPI reading was largely priced in. The asset’s stability suggests investor confidence in an upcoming rate-cut cycle and a supportive macro backdrop for risk assets. Futures open interest remained stable near $35 billion, consistent with a measured rebuild in leverage since mid-year. ETF inflows of around $20 million this week underscored steady institutional participation. With inflation cooling and rate cuts in sight, Bitcoin’s current consolidation appears to be a pause, not exhaustion. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s steady tone, with Ethereum up 2.4% to $3,978, Solana gaining 3.2%, and XRP and Cardano each adding about 1%. Polygon slipped 3.5%, while Dogecoin rose roughly 2%. Ethereum’s futures open interest climbed above $20 billion, mirroring Bitcoin’s structure and reflecting renewed confidence. Despite $127 million in ETF outflows, the move appears rotational rather than risk-off. A sustained easing narrative could see Ethereum track Bitcoin higher as investors rotate back into higher-beta assets. Solana continues to build institutional traction, hosting roughly $629 million in tokenized real-world assets, led by Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX and Circle’s USYC fund. Network resilience during the recent AWS outage and low fees reinforce its standing as a leading venue for tokenized finance. Macro & Institutional The softer CPI print confirmed that inflation pressures are easing, strengthening the case for policy relaxation at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Equity futures edged higher — Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%, while gold slipped below $4,100. Bitcoin mining stocks remain decoupled from spot prices as miners pivot toward AI infrastructure. The average cost to mine one bitcoin remains near $92,000, projected to rise toward $180,000 by 2028. Meanwhile, tokenization continues to draw institutional capital seeking compliant, on-chain yield opportunities. Looking Ahead With CPI confirming a mild cooling trend, markets now turn to the Fed’s October 29 decision for confirmation of policy easing. Bitcoin’s firm footing above $111,000, Ethereum’s revived leverage, and Solana’s institutional growth all point to a market that has priced in softer inflation — and is positioning for a lower-rate environment. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 23, 2025 Caution in markets ahead of key data and trade uncertainty Crypto markets steadied after recent turbulence, with total capitalization hovering around $3.68 trillion as traders recalibrated risk amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and uneven global sentiment. Bitcoin held near $109,500 while Ethereum hovered just below $3,900, reflecting a broader wait-and-see tone ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Traditional markets mirrored the same caution. U.S. stock futures were mixed as corporate earnings offered little conviction and investors weighed Washington’s latest trade measures against Beijing. Oil surged more than 4% after new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy firms, while gold regained safe-haven demand on the back of geopolitical strain. The dollar stayed firm ahead of Friday’s delayed CPI release, underscoring how investors remain on edge before next week’s Fed meeting. Bitcoin Bitcoin remains range-bound, reflecting cautious risk sentiment and fading market momentum. The asset rose 0.8% to hover above $109,000 but continues to trade below the short-term holders’ cost basis of $113,100 — a sign of lingering fatigue following this month’s flash crash. Despite record-high open interest, sentiment leans defensive as traders favor puts over calls and rallies are met with hedging rather than new inflows. Long-term holders have accelerated profit-taking, offloading over 22,000 BTC per day since July — a structural shift that continues to pressure market stability. The failure to reclaim the $110,000–$113,000 zone signals a market in transition: exuberance has cooled, and recovery will depend on renewed spot demand and easing volatility. Bitcoin isn’t broken — it’s breathing, consolidating after excess leverage and fading liquidity. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s restraint, with total crypto market capitalization steady near $3.68 trillion. Ethereum held at $3,855, while BNB outperformed, rising 3% to $1,103. XRP, Solana, and Cardano posted mild upticks, and meme tokens saw mixed action as the “Uptober” optimism faded. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $18 million, reflecting broader investor caution. Rotations remain selective rather than risk-on — capital is parked, not fleeing. Macro & Institutional Macro drivers reasserted dominance. U.S. equities drifted as earnings season produced a mixed picture — Tesla’s weaker margins offset optimism around solid S&P 500 growth, while Intel’s pending results will test investor appetite for AI-exposed semiconductors. In commodities, Brent surged past $65 per barrel after Washington sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, tightening supply expectations and supporting European energy shares. Gold climbed to $4,137 per ounce, rebounding from a two-week low as trade tension headlines and fresh sanctions boosted safe-haven flows. The yen weakened to 152.4 per dollar, while sterling stabilized near $1.33 as investors positioned for another potential BoE rate cut later this year. Institutionally, the crypto ETF race continues to accelerate despite the U.S. government shutdown. Over 155 cryptocurrency-based products are now pending approval, spanning 35 assets — from Bitcoin and Solana to XRP and Ethereum. Spot ETFs already command nearly $150 billion in Bitcoin and $24 billion in Ethereum assets, underscoring the sector’s institutional maturity. Scale, not speculation, is becoming the new competitive edge. Looking Ahead Markets await Friday’s U.S. inflation print for clues on whether the Fed will maintain its dovish tilt. In the near term, volatility remains data-dependent and liquidity-sensitive as traders gauge how trade policy, sanctions, and earnings interact with the broader easing cycle. In short: global liquidity is moving, but conviction isn’t — and until macro clarity returns, both crypto and equities will trade more on positioning than belief. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 22, 2025 All eyes on U.S. CPI as Bitcoin seesaws and gold rebounds Digital assets edged lower midweek as traders turned cautious ahead of fresh inflation data, even as BTC- and ETH-based ETFs attracted renewed inflows — a sign of steady interest. The global crypto market held steady at $3.63 trillion on Wednesday, showing tentative recovery after a volatile start to October. Bitcoin and major altcoins traded narrowly lower, supported by renewed inflows into spot ETFs and signs of stabilizing risk sentiment across broader markets. Still, the overall tone remains cautious as investors brace for the U.S. CPI release later this week — the first key inflation data since the federal shutdown began and the last before the Federal Reserve’s October 29 meeting. In traditional markets, U.S. futures hovered near flat, gold rebounded from its steepest drop in five years, and Netflix earnings weighed on tech sentiment. The muted cross-asset tone reflects a market balancing near-term volatility against expectations of further rate cuts and an eventual return of liquidity. Bitcoin Bitcoin slipped 0.9% to $107,500 before recovering towards $108,500. Despite the soft tone, institutional appetite is showing early signs of stabilization. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $477 million in net inflows on Tuesday, with aggregate trading volumes exceeding $7 billion for a second straight session. The BTC-to-gold ratio remains near multi-year lows, signaling that rotation from safe-haven assets into digital ones is still in early stages. Bitcoin’s ability to sustain ETF inflows despite price pressure points to renewed confidence in its role as a liquid, alternative store of value — and hints at early accumulation ahead of a potential liquidity-driven rebound. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s caution, with Ether down 0.5% to $3,843, BNB off 0.7% to $1,061, and Solana steady around $184. Yet beneath the quiet price action, ETF demand showed renewed strength: spot Ethereum ETFs saw $141 million in inflows on Tuesday. The return to positive flows reflects improving institutional sentiment after a week of turbulence in broader markets. At the same time, Hong Kong’s securities regulator approved ChinaAMC’s spot Solana ETF, the world’s first, set to list on Oct. 27. The move underscores the global race to expand regulated access to digital assets and highlights growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. Macro & Institutional Gold’s volatility remains the defining macro driver. After falling over 5% on Tuesday to about $4,125/oz, the metal rebounded above $4,150 as traders hunted for bargains and the dollar eased. The retracement follows a near-30% rally since August — a move that now appears stretched and is prompting some reallocation into higher-beta assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, crypto adoption continues to accelerate globally. South Asia is leading with 80% year-on-year growth, while the U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in transaction volume between January and July, according to TRM Labs’ 2025 Crypto Adoption and Stablecoin Usage Report. Stablecoins now account for nearly 30% of all crypto transactions, underscoring their role as the backbone of digital liquidity. Looking Ahead The coming days center on the U.S. Consumer Price Index, due Friday, which will serve as the Federal Reserve’s key input before its late-October meeting. A cooler reading could reinforce the prevailing dovish outlook and bolster risk appetite across digital assets, while a hotter figure risks short-term consolidation near Bitcoin’s $100,000 support zone. Ahead of the release, investors will also parse comments from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as initial jobless claims and new home sales data later in the week. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 21, 2025 Markets hold their breath ahead of key U.S. inflation data Markets are stabilizing slowly as traders navigate a mix of easing trade tensions, shifting liquidity, and uneven risk appetite. The total crypto market cap has slightly declined to $3.66 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum retreating alongside a broader slowdown in sentiment. Bitcoin slipped 2.6% to $107,712, extending last week’s reversal as ETF flows softened and traders awaited fresh catalysts. Beyond crypto, traditional markets ticked higher, with U.S. stock futures up around 0.1% to 1% as investors weighed a packed earnings calendar and looked ahead to Friday’s CPI release, which could confirm expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate cut later this month. Gold fell 1.8% to $4,283/oz, snapping its record-breaking run as easing U.S.–China trade tensions trimmed safe-haven demand, while oil stabilized near $57/barrel and Asian equities gained on Japan’s political transition. It’s cautious risk rotation—capital isn’t fleeing, it’s changing lanes. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $107,712 after briefly reclaiming $111,000 on Monday. Futures open interest has climbed back above $35 billion and is edging toward $40 billion, suggesting engagement is quietly returning even as spot demand remains soft. The early-October pullback still casts a shadow over positioning, keeping traders defensive and focused on short-term setups. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $40.5 million in net outflows on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive session of redemptions. Even so, derivatives activity points to rotation rather than retreat—Bitcoin’s resilience now lies less in sympathy rallies and more in how it endures when everything else is green. A sustained push in open interest above $40 billion would confirm renewed conviction for a retest of $110,000; without it, BTC is likely to continue consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum fell 5.3% to $3,859, slipping below the $4,000 threshold as broader risk appetite cooled. XRP lost 2.2% to $2.4145, while BNB dropped 5.7%. Solana and Cardano declined between 4% and 6%, reflecting continued rotation. The altcoin market cap sits near $1.48 trillion, still around $120 billion below its 2021 high, a clear signal that the current cycle remains Bitcoin-led. In past bull markets, altcoins eventually surpassed prior peaks before a broader top formed. This time, ETF-driven inflows remain concentrated in Bitcoin while liquidity constraints and rate uncertainty hold back risk rotation. Macro & Institutional Traditional markets are steady but cautious. Dow futures are down 0.2%, S&P 500 by 0.1%, and Nasdaq by 0.2% as investors brace for earnings from Netflix, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola, and Philip Morris. In Asia, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister, pledging fiscal support that helped local equities climb to fresh highs. For digital assets, the macro backdrop remains the key swing factor as liquidity trends and rate expectations continue to dictate short-term direction. Looking Ahead All eyes are on Friday’s U.S. CPI release, the defining event of the week for both traditional and digital markets. The print will test expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut later this month and set the tone for risk assets heading into November. A softer reading would reinforce the easing narrative, supporting liquidity conditions that favor high-beta assets like crypto, while a surprise to the upside could briefly tighten financial conditions and extend the consolidation across markets. In the lead-up, traders will parse remarks from Fed Governor Waller and Vice Chair Barr, along with midweek U.K. inflation data and U.S. jobless claims, but the CPI outcome remains the decisive signal. For crypto, ETF flows and Bitcoin’s open interest will show whether investors are willing to re-engage as macro visibility improves. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 20, 2025 Crypto steadies as risk sentiment improves and gold holds near highs Crypto markets began the week on firmer footing as risk appetite returned across global assets. The total digital asset market cap edged above $3.76 trillion, buoyed by Bitcoin’s rebound over $110,000 and broad-based gains in Ethereum and major altcoins. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is trending toward neutral, though still in fear territory—a sign that sentiment is stabilizing but confidence remains cautious. Bitcoin’s recovery coincides with a softening in U.S.–China trade rhetoric and renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month. Global markets are showing similar signs of relief: U.S. equity futures point higher, gold remains close to record highs, and oil stays weak on slowing demand. In Asia, China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year—slightly above forecasts but at its slowest pace in a year. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed $110,000, reversing part of last week’s slide that briefly tested the low-$103,000s. The rebound tracks a broader “risk-on” turn and growing conviction that the Fed will cut rates later this month, with shutdown-delayed CPI now due Friday. Market positioning has normalized after last week’s correction, when Spot BTC ETFs posted the second-largest outflows since launch, coinciding with Bitcoin’s move from $121,000 to $103,700. That capitulation flow has faded into early-week stabilization. Price now straddles pivotal terrain. The $107,000–$111,000 range is the immediate battleground—above it, momentum buyers can press toward the mid-$110,000s. On-chain and microstructure data point to patient dip demand, but follow-through still hinges on flows. ETF flows remain the key short-term driver; when they stabilize, confidence follows. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum reclaimed $4,000, with majors broadly higher as Solana, XRP, BNB, ADA, and DOGE posted mid-single-digit gains. The bounce looks market-wide, not just a Bitcoin relief rally. One sign of improving confidence: stablecoin float expanded by an estimated $6 billion over the past week, suggesting capital is rotating from cash sidelines into accumulation. Leverage has normalized after the shakeout, and depth is improving, but liquidity remains selective. Stablecoin expansion signals fresh capital entering markets, but conviction remains conditional on Bitcoin’s next move. Macro & Institutional The White House’s softer tone on triple-digit China tariffs and renewed dialogue between U.S. and Chinese officials have lifted risk sentiment, while gold remains near record highs as a hedge against lingering policy uncertainty. Oil, meanwhile, stays heavy around $61, reflecting slowing demand and expectations of a 2026 supply glut. In Japan, the Financial Services Agency is considering reforms that would allow banks to hold and trade digital assets, and even register as cryptocurrency exchange operators. If enacted, the move would expand institutional access in one of Asia’s largest economies and further align banking infrastructure with the digital asset space. The institutional framework is gradually aligning with crypto—policy normalization is becoming participation, not resistance. Looking Ahead The government shutdown shows few signs of resolution, keeping visibility limited for policymakers and investors alike. Still, a handful of key data points remain on deck this week. Wednesday brings the EIA crude oil inventories and MBA mortgage applications, followed by Thursday’s jobless claims, natural gas inventories, and existing home sales. The main event arrives Friday, when delayed CPI, new home sales, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index could shape expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting on October 29. A dovish outcome—rate cut and continued balance-sheet flexibility—could reignite ETF inflows. Macro direction will set the tone, with liquidity, not sentiment, the deciding factor. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 17, 2025 Gold shines at record highs as crypto waits for its catalyst Crypto markets remained subdued as the total digital asset market cap fell to $3.52 trillion, returning to July levels amid thin liquidity and a broader pullback in risk assets. Bitcoin dropped below $105,000, and Ether hovered just above $3,700, as traders continued to de-risk in step with equities. The tone across markets is cautious but not capitulatory—flows set the pace, and the dollar holds the keys. Right now, both are signaling hesitation. Traditional assets reflected a similar mixed sentiment. Gold rallied past $4,340, marking its ninth consecutive weekly gain and underscoring a flight to safety, while oil slipped below $61 on easing geopolitical tensions. Equity futures traded lower again as U.S.–China trade headlines and the ongoing government shutdown deepened the risk-off mood. The stage is set for the FOMC meeting, which may prove the next major catalyst across all markets. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell to the low-$104,000s, its weakest level since August. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of over $500 million, while open interest in futures dropped to around $37 billion, reflecting a cooldown. On-chain, long-term holders continue to trim profits in a sign of rotation, while realized losses remain modest. The structure is orderly but drained of momentum. At these levels, demand is patient and price-sensitive. Cycle dynamics now favor patience. With the post-halving window narrowing, a rebound depends on renewed ETF inflows and a weaker dollar backdrop. Sustained closes below $100,000 could extend the correction over time, while a sequence of inflows and call-heavy positioning could reopen the path toward a “late marginal high.” Without inflows, time itself becomes the headwind. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum trades just above $3,700, down around 2%, while BNB, XRP, and SOL extended losses. Spot Ethereum ETFs also reported mild outflows of about $56 million, reflecting a modest cooling in investor appetite after two sessions of net inflows earlier this week. Altcoins are still digesting last week’s deleveraging wave, though leverage levels have normalized, suggesting markets are cleaner but cautious. With supply overhead and liquidity thin, any sustained BTC stability paired with dollar softness could trigger a swift rebound across majors. Macro & Institutional Broader macro trends continue to dictate crypto’s rhythm. The Dollar Index (DXY) eased 0.5% this week, while gold’s rally past $4,340 reaffirmed its role as a preferred safe haven. For now, if the dollar blinks, crypto breathes. The Fed’s expected dovish shift later this quarter remains the market’s main hope for a renewed liquidity tailwind. Lower real yields and a weaker dollar could reignite ETF inflows and spot demand, especially at current discounted valuations. Institutional momentum continues to build beneath the price action. Florida’s proposed bill would allow up to 10% of select state funds and pensions to invest in Bitcoin or digital-asset ETFs, reinforcing a steady policy trend. Meanwhile, Ripple’s $1 billion XRP treasury plan and its acquisition of GTreasury highlight ongoing infrastructure growth despite market weakness. Looking Ahead Market visibility is limited in the short term. Due to the government shutdown, key U.S. data releases—including CPI, consumer spending, and labor market statistics—have been delayed, leaving traders without a clear macro direction. With the usual indicators off the board, attention is now turning squarely toward the FOMC meeting on October 29, where updated guidance on rate cuts and liquidity conditions could shape the next major move across all asset classes. Until then, crypto is likely to trade in tight correlation with dollar trends and ETF flows. Crypto doesn’t need euphoria—it needs a catalyst. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 16, 2025 Gold leads the rally as digital assets hold their ground Safe-haven demand remained firm as gold climbed to new record highs and Bitcoin held steady after last week’s volatility. Both assets benefited from a cautious market tone, though gold’s momentum outpaced that of digital assets. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization hovered around $3.79 trillion, with ETF flows across the crypto sector remaining net positive despite a brief rotation. Rate-cut expectations continue to anchor sentiment, but trade tensions and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown are keeping risk appetite contained. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range between $107,000 and $117,000, consolidating above realized-cost support near $109,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $104 million in outflows yesterday following several sessions of inflows earlier in the week. Holding above $107,000 keeps the current structure intact, while a sustained move above $117,000 supported by renewed ETF inflows could reintroduce momentum toward $126,000. Derivatives positioning remains balanced: volatility is modestly elevated, funding rates are neutral, and leverage levels are moderate. The Department of Justice’s recent seizure of roughly 127,000 BTC, worth about $15 billion, in a major fraud case highlights Bitcoin’s expanding role in policy and institutional discussions. Whether the holdings are allocated to restitution or the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, the event underscores Bitcoin’s growing relevance within government frameworks. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum is trading around $4,050, showing modest recovery after last week’s declines. Ethereum-based ETFs attracted about $169 million in inflows, offsetting Bitcoin’s outflows and keeping overall digital asset ETF flows positive. The rotation suggests investors are redistributing exposure within crypto rather than exiting the sector. On the network side, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, expected in December, aims to improve efficiency rather than throughput. It will raise Ethereum’s gas limit from 45 million to 60 million and introduce refinements to data validation, reducing costs for rollups. Macro & Institutional U.S. equity futures traded higher as investors balanced a steady earnings season with ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Semiconductor and banking stocks provided support, while a more measured tone from the Federal Reserve added to expectations for rate cuts later this year. Gold climbed above $4,250 per ounce on continued safe-haven demand, and oil prices firmed on signs of tightening supply. On the regulatory side, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins reaffirmed that crypto and tokenization are now top priorities for the agency, marking a shift toward more innovation-friendly oversight. Meanwhile, Volatility Shares filed to launch a suite of 5x leveraged ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The proposed products, intended for short-term traders, could modestly increase market volatility if approved. Looking Ahead The coming days bring a dense set of U.S. macro releases that could shape near-term sentiment, though the ongoing government shutdown may delay some key data – Thursday’s retail sales, producer prices, and labor indicators; and Friday’s housing, industrial production, and capital flow figures. Furthermore, there is now roughly a 50–50 chance that the government shutdown extends through the end of October, as negotiations between the White House and Congress remain stalled. Analysts estimate the closure could cost the U.S. economy up to $15 billion per week in lost output. Beyond the fiscal impact, prolonged data blackouts could complicate the Fed’s policy calibration, adding uncertainty to markets already balancing rate-cut expectations, trade friction, and shifting risk sentiment. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – October 15, 2025 Gold soars to records as Bitcoin finds its balance Markets entered midweek on steadier ground as gold extended its record-breaking rally and crypto assets regained composure after last week’s volatility. The broader backdrop is one of capital rotation rather than outright risk aversion, with investors balancing exposure between traditional and digital stores of value amid dovish central-bank signals and persistent trade uncertainty. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,186 per ounce, marking its third consecutive record high and an eight-week winning streak that has lifted prices more than 55% year-to-date. The move reflects a combination of lower real yields, a softer dollar, and heightened geopolitical caution. Crypto markets, which were first to absorb the impact of last week’s macro headlines, are showing structural resilience. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together attracted $340 million in inflows on Tuesday, indicating that institutional investors are selectively reentering exposure following a sharp but orderly market reset. Gold may be stealing the headlines, but Bitcoin is quietly reaffirming its place, both beneficiaries of the same shift toward liquidity and quality. Bitcoin Bitcoin traded near $112,000, retracing part of its recent pullback as markets stabilized after the tariff-related volatility. While leverage unwinding weighed on sentiment earlier in the week, renewed institutional inflows and stable on-chain data suggest the adjustment phase may be passing. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $102 million in inflows on Tuesday, while MARA Holdings added 400 BTC during the dip, lifting its holdings to over 53,000 BTC worth more than $6 billion. Larger miners continue to manage liquidity conservatively, treating softer hashprice conditions as opportunities for accumulation rather than distress. Bitcoin’s recovery owes less to speculation and more to structure—a market learning to absorb shocks without losing confidence Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum climbed back towards $4,100, supported by $236 million in spot ETF inflows as investors used the recent weakness as a dip-buying opportunity. Broader altcoins also steadied, with Solana recovering sharply from recent lows. The rebound was measured but points to improving liquidity conditions and a gradual rebuilding of confidence across major networks. Macro & Institutional Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed may soon conclude its balance-sheet runoff, signaling that the tightening cycle is nearing an end. The dovish tone pushed Treasury yields lower and supported a broad bid for liquidity-driven assets from gold to Bitcoin. With rate cuts already priced in for October and December, investors are rotating toward assets that balance yield scarcity with liquidity depth. Gold’s rally remains emblematic of that transition. The metal has advanced over 11% in the past month, fueled by falling real yields and renewed safe-haven demand. Every easing cycle crowns a safe haven—this time, gold holds the spotlight while Bitcoin quietly shares the stage. Looking Ahead The coming days bring a dense run of U.S. macro data that could guide near-term sentiment, though the ongoing government shutdown may delay some releases. Key indicators include Wednesday’s CPI, energy inventories, and manufacturing data; Thursday’s retail sales, PPI, and labor indicators; and Friday’s housing, production, and capital flow figures. Together, these will help shape expectations around growth, inflation, and the Fed’s next steps. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 10, 2025 Stability after the surge: Crypto pauses ahead of key macro data Crypto and traditional markets are parting ways as the week wraps up. The total crypto market cap has steadied at $4.14 trillion, with Bitcoin easing from record highs. On Wall Street, a lack of fresh data has left investors relying on sentiment, as the Fed turns to surveys instead of hard economic figures. The S&P 500’s slight pullback from weekly highs and gold’s slip just below $4,000 suggest a measured shift in risk appetite. Optimism around AI momentum and easing geopolitical tensions is tilting sentiment back toward risk assets. The standout story remains digital assets, which continue to define “risk” on their own terms—and outperform in the process. Bitcoin After racing to $126,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin eased near $121,000 as profit-taking and leveraged long liquidations tempered momentum. Yet beneath the surface, the structure remains strong. ETF inflows of nearly $5 billion this month, including another $197 million on Thursday, echo April’s institutional peak, while mid-tier holders between 10 and 1,000 BTC continue to accumulate, adding depth to the uptrend. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio’s rebound signals controlled profit-taking rather than exhaustion, consistent with a healthy bull phase. Implied volatility has climbed to a 2.5-month high, underscoring traders’ expectations for October turbulence—historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. With nearly all supply in profit and support clustered near $117,000, the setup looks like a pause, not a pivot. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum ETFs snapped their eight-day, $1.97 billion inflow streak, posting a small $8.5 million outflow. Still, trading volumes remain elevated, signaling active institutional participation. ETH holds near $4,340 within a healthy consolidation zone, its structure supported by moderate funding and stable options skews. Across the broader market, altcoins are mixed—Solana and Binance Coin slipped, while Cardano and Dogecoin eked gains. The takeaway: liquidity remains high, positioning balanced, and volatility the price of opportunity Macro & Institutional The Fed’s minutes confirmed internal debate over the pace of rate cuts, with New York Fed’s Williams hinting at more easing this year amid a cooling labor market. Yet, the lack of official data due to the shutdown clouds the path forward. The dollar firmed as gold retreated below $4,000 following a Middle East ceasefire, suggesting risk appetite is cautiously returning. Meanwhile, Luxembourg quietly made history, becoming the first Eurozone nation to allocate 1% of its $730 million sovereign wealth fund to Bitcoin ETFs. The move signals not just confidence in digital assets but a recognition that financial innovation is now a matter of national strategy. Looking Ahead Next week brings a packed macro lineup that could shape sentiment across both crypto and traditional markets—assuming the U.S. government shutdown ends and data releases resume. On Tuesday, investors will watch Germany’s CPI and remarks from Fed Chair Powell, which will set the stage for the ongoing inflation debate. Wednesday follows with the crucial U.S. CPI report, while Thursday delivers a heavy mix of retail sales, producer prices, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index—all key indicators of consumer demand and price momentum. The week wraps up on Friday with Eurozone CPI and a full set of U.S. labor data—including unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, and wage growth—a fitting finale that could reset market expectations for the Fed’s next move. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 9, 2025 Markets hold highs amid rate-cut optimism Markets are holding their breath ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today, with equities and crypto alike pausing near record highs. The mood is one of cautious confidence as investors await clues on how far monetary easing might extend. Crypto markets mirror that calm. The total market cap has steadied around $4.15 trillion, while Bitcoin trades just above $122,000, only a few percent below its record high. The pause feels more like balance than hesitation, a moment of stability as investors gauge how far this cycle can stretch. In traditional markets, U.S. stock futures were mixed ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks later today, as investors weighed the dual forces of AI-driven optimism and a prolonged government shutdown. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record peaks, powered by the same technology names that have carried equity sentiment for much of the year. Market tone remains constructive, underpinned by expectations of further rate cuts and resilient corporate earnings. Bitcoin Bitcoin consolidated near $122,000, easing from Monday’s all-time high above $126,000 as profit-taking met broader macro caution. Yet beneath the surface, structural demand continues to deepen. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew in $440 million on Wednesday, extending an eight-session streak of inflows that has now surpassed $5.7 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds over 800,000 BTC, or nearly 3.8% of total supply, underscoring how institutional accumulation now outpaces new issuance roughly seven to one. With real yields softening and gold still near record highs, Bitcoin remains anchored by the hard-asset narrative — an instrument of programmed scarcity in an age of policy uncertainty. The consolidation at current levels reflects not exhaustion but absorption, with capital flows and limited supply reinforcing one another. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum hovered near $4,400, supported by the Ethereum Foundation’s new Privacy Cluster, a 47-member initiative designed to make privacy a core property of the network. The move advances Ethereum’s vision of digital trust at scale, aligning confidentiality with usability. Institutional signals were equally notable. Ethereum ETFs attracted $69 million in fresh inflows on Wednesday. Solana climbed 4%, XRP 2%, and Dogecoin 5%, reflecting steady risk appetite across majors. Together, privacy and yield now represent the two pillars shaping the next phase of crypto utility. Macro & Institutional Global markets are oscillating between optimism and restraint. The Fed’s September minutes showed most members leaning toward further rate cuts this year, though persistent inflation concerns remain. Gold eased slightly after news of a Middle East ceasefire but remains close to its record above $4,000 per ounce. Demand for the metal stays firm amid concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, Japanese debt levels, and expectations that real rates will remain subdued through year-end. Nasdaq closed above 23,000 for the first time. Against this backdrop, monetary policy, technology, and confidence remain the market’s main anchors. Looking Ahead Markets will parse U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, followed by a crucial Friday data set featuring Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate for September. These indicators will test whether the Fed’s recent dovish tone aligns with labor market realities. For now, crypto and equities both stand at pivotal levels — buoyed by liquidity and belief, but awaiting confirmation that the macro tide will keep flowing in their favor. In a world suspended between easing policy and persistent inflation, conviction, not complacency, is becoming the new market currency. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 8, 2025 Bitcoin holds the high ground as markets await macro signals The crypto market eased on Tuesday, with total capitalization slipping to $4.2 trillion as investors took profits after last week’s record highs. Bitcoin has slightly retreated to around $123,000, just below its recent peak above $126,000, while Ethereum is battling to hold the $4,500 level. The pause came as U.S. stocks also pulled back, with bond yields edging higher after a weak 10-year Treasury note auction rattled risk sentiment. Still, the retreat looks more like a cooling phase than a trend reversal — both crypto and equities remain near record territory, and momentum could quickly reignite once fresh data or policy signals arrive. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s rally paused just shy of $126,000, retreating to $121,950 as profit-taking met a wave of cautious sentiment. The drop erased some of the gains since Sunday but left BTC comfortably above the $122K threshold — now emerging as the battleground between renewed upside and a deeper reset. Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains up nearly 10% in October, historically one of its most bullish months. ETF inflows continue to anchor the move: on Tuesday alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $875 million, extending total inflows to over $60 billion since launch. That momentum underscores persistent institutional appetite even amid short-term volatility. Ethereum Ethereum slipped 3.8% to $4,510, tracking the broader market. Yet behind the price move, institutional interest continues to surge. According to the Strategic ETH Reserve, spot ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury Companies now hold over 12.5 million ETH, or roughly 10% of the total supply — up from just 3% in April. ETF inflows remain robust: Ethereum ETFs drew $420 million on Tuesday, pushing cumulative net inflows since launch past $15 billion. BlackRock leads ETH ETF holdings with around 4 million ETH, followed by Grayscale and Fidelity. The growth highlights Ethereum’s expanding dual role — powering over $365 billion in tokenized assets while becoming a go-to treasury reserve for institutions. Macro & Institutional The 10-year Treasury auction’s weak demand nudged yields higher, tightening financial conditions and sparking the day’s risk-off tone. Even so, futures showed tentative recovery overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts up 0.2%, hinting at cautious dip-buying. Meanwhile, gold broke above $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever, gaining over 50% this year as investors seek refuge from political gridlock and fading confidence in U.S. bonds. Central banks, led by China’s PBOC, have been steady buyers, while ETF inflows show private investors are following suit. Attention now turns to the FOMC minutes from the September meeting, which could clarify how far the Fed intends to go after last month’s rate cut. With key data delayed by the shutdown, policymakers’ tone will carry extra weight. In traditional finance, S&P Global launched the Digital Markets 50 Index, blending 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-linked equities. Tokenized on Dinari’s dShares platform, it bridges both sides of the digital-asset economy, signaling a deeper integration between traditional benchmarks and blockchain infrastructure. Looking Ahead The rest of the week is loaded with potential market catalysts. On Wednesday, the U.S. 10-year note auction and FOMC meeting minutes will shape expectations around interest rates. Thursday brings Fed Chair Powell’s speech and the latest jobless claims, while Friday’s labor data — covering average hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate — will reveal how the Fed’s recent rate cut is filtering through the economy. For crypto, the backdrop remains finely balanced: Bitcoin’s $125,000 level is still the line to defend, supported by ETF inflows and tightening supply, though any hawkish signal from policymakers could quickly turn “Uptober” enthusiasm into caution. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 7, 2025 Bitcoin extends rally to new highs amid macro turbulence Crypto entered the week at full throttle as total market capitalization surged to a record $4.28 trillion, underscoring the scale of institutional and retail inflows even as political risk rattled traditional markets. Bitcoin remains the anchor of this expansion, holding above $124,000 on Tuesday, with futures open interest nearing $50 billion — a sign of deepening institutional positioning. Traditional markets, by contrast, were muted as the U.S. government shutdown entered its second week, delaying critical data and leaving the Fed’s policy path uncertain. Stocks hovered near record highs after AMD’s landmark deal with OpenAI, while gold briefly touched $4,000/oz as investors sought safety in scarcity. Bitcoin Bitcoin climbed to a record $126,228, powered by surging ETF inflows that confirm a growing structural bid. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds absorbed $1.2 billion in a single day, the second-largest total since launch, while weekly inflows reached $3.55 billion, adding to nearly $6 billion across crypto ETFs and tightening the supply pipeline. Capital is clustering around hard assets — and this time, Bitcoin leads the charge. Bitcoin’s supply is tightening through real repricing. The network’s realized price climbed from $41,000 to $54,000 this year, while short-term holders’ cost basis jumped to $113,000K — evidence that dormant coins are moving into ETF and custodial demand. BTC has since consolidated around $124,500, with its prior high now acting as support. The move aligns with the so-called “debasement trade,” as investors rotate away from fiscal risk into hard assets. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum extended its advance, briefly topping $4,700 before easing to $4,643, up 11% on the week. Institutional and corporate treasuries now hold over 10% of ETH’s total supply, while October ETF inflows have already exceeded $620 million. The data reflect Ethereum’s evolution into a yield-bearing, institutionally recognized asset — increasingly treated as both collateral and infrastructure. Altcoins echoed Bitcoin’s momentum, extending the rally across the market. BNB rose 4.1% to $1,243, Cardano gained 5.2% to $0.88, Solana advanced 3.7% to $236, and Dogecoin jumped 6.1% to $0.27. The broad participation highlights renewed confidence and the return of cyclical optimism — the kind of synchronized strength traders call “Uptober.” Macro & Institutional Macroeconomic sentiment remains split between dysfunction and momentum. The shutdown has delayed major releases, forcing markets to navigate by partial data. Even so, futures continue to price in a 25-bp cut at the October 28–29 Fed meeting, keeping real yields under pressure and extending support for hard assets. Gold’s 48% YTD rally mirrors Bitcoin’s 30% rise, making them 2025’s standout performers. In a year defined by policy paralysis, they’ve become the twin barometers of confidence erosion. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,900, citing durable central-bank demand and renewed ETF buying. For Bitcoin, the message is clear: as legacy stores of value reprice, the digital one inherits both narrative and flow. When fiscal uncertainty becomes the base case, scarcity becomes strategy. Looking Ahead Attention now turns to a heavy U.S. data calendar. Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury auction and FOMC minutes will test appetite for government debt, but all eyes are on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. With the shutdown limiting visibility, Powell’s tone could prove decisive — a dovish pivot would reinforce risk appetite, while a firmer stance could pause momentum across markets. The week ends with jobless claims and the September labor report — payrolls, earnings, and unemployment, key signals of whether the Fed can ease without reviving inflation pressures. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice

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Daily Market Dispatch – October 6, 2025 Bitcoin breaks $125K as investors turn to store-of-value assets Bitcoin has set a new all-time high at $125,593, propelling the total crypto market capitalization to a record $4.27 trillion. The move cements Bitcoin’s lead as the defining asset of 2025 as investors seek safety in scarce assets. The rally has unfolded in parallel with gold’s climb to fresh record highs near $3,950 per ounce. Futures are pointing higher across major equity indices, with markets still betting on another Fed rate cut later this month. Sentiment is gradually tilting toward greed with risk appetite intact, and Bitcoin once again setting the tone for global markets. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s ascent past $125,500 on Sunday for the new all-time high redefined the tone of this market cycle. Unlike the euphoric surges of the past, this rally has unfolded with calm discipline and institutional leadership. The world’s largest cryptocurrency now trades like a macro barometer. The backdrop of a government shutdown and expectations of further liquidity support have revived the so-called “debasement trade,” in which investors turn to assets that stand outside the traditional system. Selling pressure from long-term holders has eased, speculative activity has cooled, and Bitcoin’s steadiness near record highs underlines how maturity has replaced mania. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in inflows last week, their second-highest total since launch. These flows show how Bitcoin has become integrated into the mainstream investment structure, with investors favoring regulated exposure over direct token purchases. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s advance, climbing more than 10% week-on-week to reclaim the $4,500 level. Spot ETH ETFs drew $1.3 billion in new inflows, reversing earlier outflows and reaffirming institutional demand. Solana set a fresh weekly record with $706 million, and XRP funds added $219 million, signaling selective rotation into altcoins while the overall market structure remains Bitcoin-led. Altcoin strength is broad but measured, reflecting a market that’s expanding through credibility rather than speculation. Bitcoin’s dominance continues to anchor sentiment and direction. Macro & Institutional Institutional players are accelerating at a record pace. Digital asset investment products drew $5.95 billion in inflows last week, lifting the respective total assets under management to an unprecedented $254 billion. The U.S. accounted for $5 billion of that figure, underscoring renewed investor appetite. At the same time, more than two dozen new crypto ETF filings, covering assets from Solana to Dogecoin, remain frozen as the SEC slows operations during the shutdown. Bitcoin’s role within global portfolios is deepening, not waiting for policy clearance. Looking Ahead The week ahead brings a series of key U.S. events likely to steer sentiment across asset classes. On Wednesday, the 10-Year Note Auction and FOMC Meeting Minutes, both key barometers for monetary sentiment, will offer insight into demand for Treasuries and the Fed’s tone. Thursday features remarks from Fed Chair Powell and the latest Initial Jobless Claims, followed by Friday’s critical labor data – Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate for September. Some releases may be delayed, but markets are pressing on regardless. Bitcoin and gold are emerging as twin pillars of conviction. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice

The week is packed with key events markets have been waiting for – from labor market readings to Fed signals: 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes – Oct 8, 19:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Oct 9, 12:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Oct 9, 12:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) – Oct 10, 12:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) – Oct 10, 12:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Sep) – Oct 10, 12:30 GMT

Daily Market Dispatch – October 3, 2025 Uptober in motion: BTC tops $120,000 with crypto market near record cap Uptober has crypto markets powering higher into Q4, with the total market cap hovering at $4.14 trillion, just shy of all-time highs. Bitcoin is steadily rising toward record levels, Ethereum and altcoins are climbing, and stablecoins have surpassed $300 billion in circulation — clear signs of renewed capital inflows. U.S. equities are also pressing to fresh record highs despite the government shutdown, adding to the risk-on momentum spilling into digital assets. Behind the rally, the U.S. dollar is heading for its worst week since July, gold is at record highs, and Treasury yields are sliding, creating a decisively risk-on backdrop. Bitcoin Bitcoin reached above $120,400 on Friday, within striking distance of its August peak at $124,000. Thursday brought another $627 million of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, extending a run of nine positive weeks in the last twelve. ETF absorption is accelerating while long-term holder distribution eases, helping BTC build a stronger base as it works through resistance between $114,000 and $118,000. On-chain dynamics support the constructive tone. Glassnode data show Bitcoin holding above the short-term holder cost basis, while derivatives positioning has reset cleanly after last week’s record expiry. Implied volatility has cooled, skew has normalized, and the curve remains in contango — a setup consistent with consolidation ahead of further upside. Seasonality adds to the optimism: since 2013, BTC has averaged 14% gains in October, and early trading suggests this “Uptober” could once again deliver. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum gained more than 3% to $4,477, supported by Thursday’s $327 million in ETF inflows. Citi’s year-end forecast of $4,500 underscores steady allocator demand, while ETH’s positioning benefits from staking and DeFi-linked yield narratives. Altcoins followed with broad-based gains. BNB surged more than 5% to $1,084 and Solana advanced to $231, while XRP regained the $3 level, buoyed by speculation around U.S. ETF approvals. The breadth of this move suggests capital is rotating selectively into names with clear institutional or structural catalysts, keeping overall sentiment constructive. Macro & Institutional The macro backdrop is providing consistent support. CME FedWatch now shows a 98% probability of another quarter-point cut in October, with odds of a second move in December nearing 90%. Gold’s momentum, however, is showing signs of easing with spot prices back to $3,847 after touching record highs earlier in the week, as appetite for risk assets tempered haven demand. While gold remains elevated, the shift highlights how risk-on sentiment is dominating across markets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed the shift in sentiment, taking in $1.63 billion last week and bringing four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion. At current run-rates, Q4 flows could retire over 100,000 BTC from circulation — more than double new issuance. Institutional outlooks diverge slightly but remain constructive. Citi projects BTC at $133,000 by year-end, with upside as high as $156,000 if equity markets rally. JPMorgan sees room to $165,000 on relative valuation versus gold. Meanwhile, stablecoins crossing $300 billion in supply marks a milestone for market depth. Looking Ahead Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, powered by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions. Today’s focus is the ISM services print, but next week will bring a heavier calendar: Fed Chair Powell’s speech, a 10-year Treasury auction, FOMC meeting minutes with member commentary, and potentially the delayed jobs data reports depending on the shutdown timeline. With ETFs now the clearest sentiment barometer, these events will set the tone for whether ‘Uptober’ extends with conviction. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice