Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – December 9, 2025 Crypto markets hold firm as Fed decision nears Crypto markets continue to stabilise above the $3 trillion threshold, with total capitalisation at $3.11 trillion. ETF flows remain rotational rather than risk-off: BTC ETFs recorded $60 million in outflows, while ETH, SOL and XRP products attracted $35 million, $1 million and $38 million. Traditional markets are also holding a cautious bid ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with Dow futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.1%. Ten-year Treasury yields remain elevated, while Brent trades near $62.64 and WTI around $59.03. Investors appear to be maintaining positions while awaiting policy clarity. Bitcoin BTC trades above $92,000, remaining in a narrow $88,000–$93,000 range ahead of Wednesday’s decision. A 25 basis point cut is nearly fully priced in, though Powell’s guidance is expected to carry more weight for market direction. Structural demand remains steady. MSTR’s acquisition of 10,624 BTC, bringing its holdings to roughly 660,624 BTC, underscores ongoing long-term accumulation despite softer short-term flows. Exchange balances continue to trend lower and ETF outflows remain manageable, indicating a stable underlying backdrop. A cautious Fed could see BTC retest the lower end of the recent range, while more supportive communication may facilitate a move through $93,000 toward the $95,000 area, with scope for extension if liquidity conditions improve. Ethereum & Altcoins ETH trades near $3,100, SOL around $132 and XRP near $2.05, with overall activity subdued ahead of the Fed. ETF flows continue to show selective accumulation, suggesting a preference for rotation rather than broad risk-taking. Early signs of recovery persist across several networks, including stabilising active addresses, firmer transfer volumes and incremental liquidity improvements. While directional conviction remains limited for now, positioning indicates preparedness for a shift once macro uncertainty eases. Macro & Institutional The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting, with a 25 basis point cut widely expected though still debated due to limited data during the government shutdown. Powell’s communication will likely play a central role in setting expectations for the early-2026 policy path. Asian markets were mixed: China traded flat, Hong Kong declined on semiconductor weakness and Australia’s ASX moved lower following a hawkish hold from the RBA. In corporate developments, Nvidia received U.S. approval to export its H200 chips to China, though Beijing may introduce its own restrictions, while Paramount launched a $108.4 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Regulatory progress in the Middle East continues to accelerate as USDT and USDC receive expanded permissions under the ADGM framework and Binance secures full authorisation to operate its global platform from January 2026. Looking Ahead The week turns increasingly data-heavy, with Monday featuring U.S. JOLTS job openings and a 10-year Treasury auction, followed by Tuesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision and the FOMC statement, Fed rate decision and press conference. Thursday brings U.S. jobless claims alongside the U.K. GDP and German CPI, setting the macro tone into the weekend and determining how much of any Fed-driven momentum crypto can carry into year-end. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – December 8, 2025 Crypto lifts above $3.12T as markets anticipate the Fed’s guidance Crypto markets are stabilizing with intent, with total market capitalization recovering above $3.12 trillion as traders position ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve week. Hopes for a long-awaited rate cut are driving the bid, but the real catalyst sits in what Chair Powell signals next. Traditional markets are echoing this cautious optimism: U.S. equity futures are steady after two weeks of gains, and bond yields are edging higher as investors brace for what could be one of the most divided Fed decisions in years. Risk appetite is improving, but conviction still hinges on the tone the Fed sets mid-week. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed ground above $91,000 after last week’s volatility, supported by firm rate-cut expectations and emerging signs that structural sell pressure is easing. Long-term holder supply bottomed alongside the market’s late-November lows, indicating that the heaviest wave of spot-driven distribution may have already played out. This has defined 2025: steady long-term holder selling has kept Bitcoin flat for most of the year, but stabilization in this cohort signals a potential turning point. ETF activity is starting to reflect that shift. Bitcoin ETFs closed last week with $54 million in net inflows, a modest but meaningful sign that institutional participation is quietly returning after months of defensive positioning. With volatility compressed and macro uncertainty peaking mid-week, Bitcoin’s next decisive move is likely to come not from the cut itself but from Powell’s tone on what comes next. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum traded above $3,100 in a measured rebound — and its supply dynamics are turning into one of the most constructive stories in the market. ETH held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 8.7%, the lowest level since 2015 and down 43% since July, as more supply is locked into staking, restaking, L2 activity, digital asset treasuries, and long-term custody. In effect, ETH is increasingly migrating into places that don’t sell, creating the tightest supply backdrop the asset has ever experienced. With ETH holding above $3,000 for several consecutive days, the setup looks constructive once macro visibility improves. Altcoins broadly followed the market higher, with Solana and Cardano up around 2% and XRP continuing its steady climb. ETF flows underscore the selective rotation beneath the surface: $15 million into Solana, $10 million into XRP, and $75 million out of Ethereum products over the week. Macro & Institutional Risk markets enter the week balanced between optimism and tension. Investors assign an ~87% probability to a 25 bps Fed cut on Wednesday, though the meeting may see one of the most divided votes in years. Sticky inflation, softening labor signals, and a backlog of delayed data complicate the backdrop, keeping yields firm as traders brace for firmer guidance. Equities held steady, while oil drifted lower on geopolitical and demand considerations. Crypto investment products posted their second consecutive week of inflows, adding $716 million globally, supported by gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum products and outflows from short-BTC positions. Total assets under management rose to $180 billion, still well below cycle highs but improving. U.S. spot ETFs, however, ended the week with modest outflows — a sign that regional sentiment remains uneven even as broader flows turn positive. Looking Ahead This week’s catalysts arrive fast — U.S. JOLTS data and a 10-year auction today, the Fed’s rate decision and press conference on December 10, followed by jobless claims and U.K. and German growth and inflation prints into December 12. With so many macro signals landing within 72 hours, the tone of Powell’s guidance will be the deciding force: a dovish path could ignite a year-end risk bid, while caution keeps crypto tethered to its recent range until the data resets the narrative.

Daily Market Dispatch – December 4, 2025 Crypto maintains Momentum as markets position for a solid year-end Crypto markets extended their rebound on Thursday, with Bitcoin holding above $92,000 and Ethereum reclaiming $3,000 as traders leaned further into the prospect of a December rate cut. The broader digital-asset market is steady near $3.16 trillion, supported by a softer dollar, stable long-end yields, and a quiet return of risk appetite across derivatives and ETFs. Traditional markets mirrored this tone: U.S. equity futures were flat, gold eased about 0.3% on profit-taking, and silver and platinum softened — a setup that signals repositioning rather than risk aversion. Bitcoin BTC’s rebound from the late-November lows continued as liquidity expectations firmed and the dollar extended a nine-day slide. Spot prices hovered around $92,300, with volatility notably lower than during last month’s ETF-driven unwind. ETF flows remained stabilizing rather than decisive: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $14 million in net outflows, but the pace has slowed. Options markets leaned constructive, with calls dominating the $100,000–$120,000 corridor into early 2025 and a small pocket positioned toward $200,000. Positioning remains light after November’s flush, leaving room for incremental inflows to exert outsized impact. The market increasingly treats November as a structural reset that gives BTC more freedom to respond to macro shifts. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum’s move above $3,000 is being reinforced by structural flows. BitMine added more than $150 million in ETH, continuing its push toward holding 5% of total supply even as broader treasuries slowed accumulation. The Fusaka upgrade added another catalyst, introducing PeerDAS sampling, scaled blob throughput, pricing stabilization, and backend improvements that support a more industrial upgrade cadence. Altcoin flows diverged: ETH ETFs drew $140 million, XRP attracted $50 million, while Solana ETFs saw $32 million in outflows as traders adjusted high-beta exposure. The pattern points to selective positioning rather than broad de-risking, with capital clustering around assets backed by identifiable catalysts. Macro & Institutional U.S. markets traded in holding patterns ahead of a pivotal macro stretch, with traders almost fully pricing a 25 bp Fed cut at next week’s meeting and looking to Friday’s delayed PCE print for confirmation. Shrinking private payrolls, softer ISM services employment, and muted jobless claims suggest the labor market is no longer resisting easier policy. Futures now embed an ~89% probability of a December cut, while the dollar’s slide and steady 10-year yields near 4.1% show financial conditions quietly easing. The conversation has shifted from whether the Fed cuts to how quickly it signals flexibility into early 2025. Speculation over the Fed’s long-term leadership adds another catalyst. Even without a nomination, the emerging “shadow chair” dynamic is shaping expectations for a softer policy mix — a shift which crypto appears to be pricing ahead of other assets. Across markets, positioning is moving from defensive to preparatory, a setup that historically favors liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto. Looking Ahead The focus turns to Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims, which will guide short-term rate expectations, and Friday’s delayed Core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the final macro input before next week’s decision. A softer labor read and contained PCE would reinforce the easing narrative supporting crypto’s rebound, while any upside surprise may keep markets range-bound until the Fed clarifies its path. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – December 2, 2025 Crypto recovers as markets await this week’s data The crypto market is edging back above the $3 trillion milestone after Monday’s risk-off move. Bitcoin is finding its footing, U.S. futures are muted, and bond markets are adjusting to firm Fed cut expectations and a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan. With Friday’s PCE print and next week’s Fed meeting ahead, markets are entering a guidance-heavy stretch where policy signals may matter more than new data. Bitcoin Bitcoin is above $90,000 after Monday’s sharp drop below $84,000, as the asset defended its broader structure. Crucially, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs registered +$8 million in net inflows yesterday, extending the late-November shift back into positive creations. It’s a small number nominally, but a relevant sign that the heavy redemptions from last month — more than $4 billion — may be losing momentum. Post-halving, miners issue roughly $38–40 million in new BTC per day at today’s prices. This makes even modest positive net ETF flows meaningful: $50–100 million of daily creations can absorb multiple days of new supply, forcing market makers to source coins more aggressively. November showed how the dynamic works in reverse; sustained outflows added structural sell pressure across spot venues. If inflows continue, even at a slow pace, liquidity could tighten again and help stabilize the trading range into year-end. With thinner December order books and an unusual gap in U.S. inflation data before the Fed meets, flow behaviour may play an outsized role in shaping price direction over the coming weeks. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum remains softer, mirroring flow trends: U.S. ETH ETFs recorded $79 million in outflows, while Solana products saw $13 million. XRP was the clear outlier, attracting $89 million, highlighting that capital is rotating rather than exiting. Overall, ETF flows look mixed but increasingly stable. In DeFi, liquidity continues to favour Ethereum. Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin has grown to about $1.26 billion in supply, with 82% minted on Ethereum — reflecting deeper pools and immediate integration across major protocols. Altcoins remain range-bound, with isolated strength in Cardano and Solana. Macro & Institutional Global macro sentiment is cautiously constructive. U.S. futures are flat as investors balance weak ISM manufacturing data, firmer Treasury yields, and strong expectations — around 85–90% — for a Fed rate cut next week. Succession questions around Chair Powell add mild uncertainty, while eurozone inflation stays close to the ECB’s target. Asian markets are mostly higher on Fed-cut hopes, with Japan lagging as BOJ officials continue signalling a possible rate hike. Institutional adoption remains steady. Large asset managers are expanding tokenisation pilots focused on efficiency and settlement speed, and U.S. regulators are preparing new stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act, including frameworks for tokenised deposits. Meanwhile, Strategy added 130 BTC in late November and established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to support dividends and debt servicing — a move that blends BTC reserves with traditional liquidity buffers for more resilient treasury management. Looking Ahead The next catalysts arrive steadily through the week, with U.S. JOLTS openings on Monday, ADP employment and the S&P Global Services PMI on Tuesday, jobless claims on Wednesday, and the Core PCE inflation print on Thursday — a sequence that will shape expectations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. In thin year-end liquidity, even small shifts in rate expectations could determine whether crypto continues to stabilize near current levels or begins rebuilding more durable upside momentum. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

⚙️ Scheduled Ethereum network upgrade – December 3, 2025 The Ethereum network will undergo its Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025, at approximately 21:49:11 UTC. To ensure a smooth transition and maintain network security, we will temporarily pause top-ups and withdrawals over the Ethereum network approximately one hour before the upgrade. Swapping, trading, borrowing, and all other Nexo services for Ethereum-based assets will remain fully available throughout this period. Once the upgrade is completed and the network stabilizes, transfers will resume, and all pending transactions will be processed normally. No action is required from you. Fusaka marks the Ethereum network’s most extensive Layer-1 transformation since the Pectra upgrade. Learn more. We will continue to provide updates on the Nexo Status Center as the upgrade progresses.

Daily Market Dispatch – December 1, 2025 Crypto cools off, but the cycle’s drivers are in motion Crypto starts the week under pressure, with Bitcoin testing support around $86,000 and total market capitalization at $2.92 trillion as risk-off sentiment moves through global markets. This comes even as odds of a Fed rate cut on Dec. 9–10 approach 90%. The mix of expected easing and near-term liquidity tightening—driven by surging Japanese yields and carry-trade repricing—is weighing on high-beta assets. U.S. equity futures are softer after a strong November, and thin crypto market depth is amplifying moves. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s fall toward the mid-$86,000s reflects macro pressure and fragile market structure. After consolidating near $91,000, BTC slipped as Japanese government bond yields jumped and traders unwound portions of the yen carry trade. One of the lowest-volume weeks since July left order books thin, turning a routine pullback into a sharper liquidity-driven drop. Positioning suggests a leverage reset rather than a sentiment break. Open interest has cooled, funding remains moderate, and after ~$3.5 billion in November outflows—largely profit-taking into all-time highs—ETF flows ended the month back in positive territory. The key question now is whether BTC can reclaim the low-$90,000s to avoid sliding toward mid-to-low-$80,000 support. Ethereum & Altcoins ETH and large-cap alts mirrored the broader move, with Ethereum down 5–6% and names like XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Polygon showing similar declines. Under the surface, a divergence persists: BTC traders have been de-risking while ETH traders add leverage despite subdued network activity, creating a more uneven setup for ETH. Ethereum enters a pivotal week with the Fusaka upgrade, its second mainnet upgrade of 2025. Spanning 12 EIPs across the consensus and execution layers, Fusaka aims to boost throughput and cut costs for rollups. The key change, PeerDAS, lets validators verify blob segments rather than full blobs, easing bandwidth constraints and lowering L2 fees. As Ethereum remains the settlement layer for high-throughput rollups, Fusaka is a meaningful step toward sustainable scaling. Macro & Institutional U.S. stock futures are softer after last month’s gains in the S&P 500 and Dow, while the Nasdaq lags on concerns that AI-driven earnings may be cooling. Markets are pricing nearly an 88% chance of a 25-bps “hawkish cut,” reflecting softer growth and labor indicators. The dollar has eased slightly, while the yen has strengthened on rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike on Dec. 18–19, a shift that threatens to unwind carry trades and tighten global liquidity. Gold remains supported by macro uncertainty and official-sector demand. UBS projects gold could reach ~$4,500/oz by 2026, citing slower growth, sticky inflation, and ongoing de-dollarisation—factors that help explain why many allocators pair bullion and crypto as complementary hedges. On the crypto-institutional front, last week marked the first combined net inflow into U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs since late October: about $70 million for BTC and over $300 million for ETH. November was the softest month for flows this year, but late-month stabilization suggests institutions are pausing, not exiting, and growing more selective on entry levels. Looking Ahead The coming days will determine whether this pullback was a brief liquidity flush or the start of a broader consolidation. A dense U.S. data slate—PMIs, ADP jobs, consumer sentiment, and delayed PCE inflation—arrives ahead of the Dec. 9–10 Fed meeting and a closely watched speech from Chair Jerome Powell, his final cue before the decision. If the data confirm cooling growth without reigniting inflation, a Fed edging toward easing—combined with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade—could help the market rebuild momentum into year-end rather than extend deeper into risk aversion. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

This week’s U.S. data, alongside Powell’s upcoming remarks, will test whether there's momentum behind the soft-landing narrative – a backdrop that historically supports Bitcoin: 🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) – Dec 1, 14:45 GMT 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) – Dec 1, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Dec 2, 01:00 GMT 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) – Dec 2, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) – Dec 3, 13:15 GMT 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) – Dec 3, 14:45 GMT 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Dec 4, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY, Sep) – Dec 5, 15:00 GMT

Daily Market Dispatch – November 28, 2025 Crypto firms up ahead of ETF restart and key macro tests The crypto market is stabilising above $3.1 trillion as bitcoin and ether hold this week’s gains, with thin holiday liquidity keeping price action contained. United States spot ETFs remain paused through Thanksgiving, and next week’s inflows should offer a clearer read on institutional appetite and whether this rebound can broaden into a year-end trend. Gold is also firming, set for a fourth straight monthly gain as traders lean toward a December rate cut, though a CME outage briefly halted futures trading across commodities. With the dollar softer and liquidity conditions improving, both crypto and gold are benefiting from a shift in policy expectations. Bitcoin Bitcoin is steady above $91,000 after recovering from last week’s dip toward $80,000. It is on track for its strongest weekly performance in more than a month as markets price an 85% to 87% chance of a December cut, improving the bid for liquidity-sensitive assets and easing pressure on non-yielding stores of value. Speculation around potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve adds a light dovish undertone but remains secondary. The key focus is whether bitcoin can hold $90,000 on a retest; a firm defense keeps the path open toward $95,000, while losing that level risks a move back toward $84,000. For now, bitcoin is trading more as a clean gauge of policy momentum than on crypto-native catalysts. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is consolidating near $3,000, lagging bitcoin but supported by steady institutional flows. Spot ether vehicles have logged several consecutive days of net inflows, suggesting a more deliberate re-accumulation phase rather than speculative chasing. Altcoins remain mixed: XRP and Solana are stabilising after deeper drawdowns, while Cardano, Polygon, and meme tokens continue drifting lower on light liquidity. A broader theme is the rise of balance-sheet demand, with corporate accumulation playing a larger role as retail flows remain selective. Macro & Institutional The dollar is heading for its weakest weekly performance in about four months as traders price an 87% chance of a December rate cut, pulling United States yields lower and easing financial conditions. Asian markets ended November on steadier footing thanks to resilient Japanese data and sticky Tokyo inflation that keeps the door open for a Bank of Japan hike. European equities are flat but still on track for a fifth straight monthly gain. Gold futures were briefly disrupted by a CME outage but continue to firm on expectations of near-term easing. Liquidity dynamics are also shifting. The Treasury General Account remains elevated after the government shutdown, and as balances normalise, more cash will flow back into the banking system. That tailwind aligns with the scheduled end of quantitative tightening on December 1, reducing one of the main structural drags on liquidity. Institutional participation in digital assets remains active: BitMine Immersion Technologies added 14,618 ETH — about $44 million — to its treasury this week, only days after a separate $200 million purchase, bringing its holdings close to 3.6 million ETH. Looking Ahead With Thanksgiving limiting fresh data, next week becomes the first meaningful test of whether crypto’s rebound can build momentum. China’s manufacturing data over the weekend will set the tone for global risk appetite, while early-week United States activity and labour indicators will show whether the soft-landing narrative remains intact. Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell mid-week will be watched for confirmation that the recent dovish tilt is intentional. The week ends with Friday’s Core PCE report, the key inflation input before the December meeting. If the data align with the easing path now priced in, crypto’s recovery can extend into December; if they overshoot, volatility may return as liquidity normalises. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – November 27, 2025 Crypto holds gains as the macro calendar ramps up Crypto markets are modestly higher in a holiday-thinned session, with the Thanksgiving break limiting U.S. data and liquidity. Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 and total market capitalization has recovered to roughly $3.11 trillion, supported by firmer risk sentiment. U.S. equities extended gains into the break, Asian markets are broadly higher, and Europe is steady. The Fed’s Beige Book signaled softer hiring, reinforcing expectations for a December rate cut, while the dollar is marginally firmer intraday but down on the week. Gold is consolidating and euro-area sentiment improved slightly, led by services. Bitcoin Bitcoin is holding near $91,000 after last week’s move to the $80,000–$81,000 area, supported by an improved risk backdrop and an 80–85 percent implied probability of a December cut. Short liquidations dominated the past day as positioning normalized in quieter trading. Participation is also stabilizing. Futures open interest has increased across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $21 million in inflows on Wednesday. Market structure still places resistance in the mid-$90,000s, with initial support near $80,000–$82,000. Beyond near-term levels, the key variable remains the direction of real yields; historically, softer real yields and easier financial conditions have aligned with stronger BTC performance, while higher real yields have kept cash and Treasuries competitive. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading around $3,000, with major altcoins modestly higher. Trading activity is gradually returning, reflected in higher open interest across ETH, SOL, and XRP. ETF flows were constructive: Ethereum saw about $60 million in inflows, XRP attracted roughly $21 million, and Solana posted a small $8 million outflow. On fundamentals, Ethereum’s block gas limit increased from 45 million to 60 million after validator approval, expanding base-layer capacity ahead of the Fusaka upgrade. Scaling networks also reached record throughput. Market reaction remains measured but reflects continued improvement in network efficiency. The combination of steady inflows and rising derivatives activity suggests investors are rebuilding exposure selectively rather than rotating aggressively across the complex. Macro & Institutional Global market tone is stable into the holiday period. Asian markets are mostly higher, Europe is flat, and euro-area sentiment improved modestly in November. The U.S. Beige Book confirmed softer labor conditions with slower hiring and increased reliance on freezes and attrition. The dollar is slightly firmer today but heading for a weekly drop, while gold consolidates after earlier gains. Policy developments continue to shape the regulatory landscape. Japan faces the challenge of supporting growth while maintaining fiscal credibility, and the UAE’s new central bank framework formally integrates digital assets and DeFi into regulation with licensing requirements and sizable penalties. Institutionally, asset managers continue shifting from single-token exposures toward diversified crypto portfolio products, suggesting a more structured integration of digital assets into multi-asset allocations. Looking Ahead With Thanksgiving limiting new data releases, attention turns to next week’s macro calendar, starting with China’s November manufacturing PMI on Sunday and followed by the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey on Monday. Tuesday includes remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, updated JOLTS job openings, the ADP employment report, and the S&P Global services PMI. The week concludes with Friday’s Core PCE Price Index — both monthly and annual — alongside headline PCE, which together form the most important inflation inputs ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting and will guide whether current expectations for another rate cut remain well-supported. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – November 26, 2025 Crypto ETF flows flip positive as macro clouds start to break The crypto market is stabilizing just below the $3 trillion mark, firming midweek as ETF flows turned positive across the board. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP products all saw inflows on Tuesday — the first coordinated improvement in weeks and an early sign that demand may be stabilizing. Traditional markets also leaned risk-on: U.S. equity futures edged higher after the Dow logged its strongest session since August, and rate-cut expectations climbed above 80% ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting. Softer retail data and continued labor-market weakness strengthened the case for easing, while this week’s Beige Book will offer qualitative signals on activity. With flows stabilizing and macro conditions leaning supportive, crypto is beginning to recalibrate off last week’s lows and could be setting up for a more defined trend as policy clarity emerges. Bitcoin Bitcoin traded near $87,500, steady on the day and holding the $84,000–$90,000 range after last week’s seven-month lows. ETF flows showed their first stabilization in days, with about $129 million in net inflows on November 25. Markets now price an 82% probability of a December cut, supported by weaker consumer data and speculation that Kevin Hassett could become the next Federal Reserve chair. On-chain stress remains elevated, with almost one-third of supply still underwater, while long-term holders continue selective accumulation. A move above $92,000 or sustained inflows across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana would add conviction that a base is forming and could open the door to a broader recovery if macro conditions align. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins were mostly range-bound. Ethereum rose about 0.4% to roughly $2,935, Solana edged higher, and meme tokens were unchanged. The standout remained XRP, which has overtaken Solana in the U.S. altcoin ETF race. In fewer than ten trading days, XRP ETFs have accumulated around $587 million in inflows, surpassing Solana’s month-long total. XRP also moved above $2.00, breaking into a psychological zone where legacy supply historically capped rallies. This cycle, ETF demand is absorbing that supply. If momentum continues, XRP is on track for about $1.5 billion in assets under management by year-end, with a stretch scenario near $2 billion — positioning it as one of the most closely watched assets into December. Macro & Institutional Macro sentiment leaned constructive as U.S. equities extended their rebound. The Dow delivered its strongest day since August, and futures opened firmer across major indices. Rate-cut expectations strengthened after softer retail sales and ongoing labor-market cooling. Corporate results added momentum: Dell raised its fiscal year 2026 targets on surging AI-server demand, while HP traded lower pre-market on weaker guidance and planned workforce cuts. Oil hovered near one-month lows amid supply-glut concerns and potential Russia-Ukraine progress. Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce, citing structural central-bank demand and limited supply elasticity — a setup that could intensify if global inflation moderates further. Looking Ahead Key U.S. catalysts arrive this week: Initial Jobless Claims on Wednesday, PCE and Core PCE data on Wednesday, and Chicago PMI on Friday. Softer labor or inflation readings could revive risk appetite and give crypto room to advance into early December, while firmer prints would likely keep markets range-bound until the Fed’s rate decision provides clearer direction. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – November 25, 2025 Market mood shifts from fear to focus as Fed decision nears Crypto markets are stabilizing after weeks of volatility, with total capitalization holding near $3 trillion and sentiment gradually improving. The Fear & Greed Index has moved out of “extreme fear” and into neutral territory, suggesting selling fatigue and the start of risk rebalancing. The shift aligns with a cautious but constructive macro backdrop: U.S. futures are modestly lower ahead of delayed data that could determine the Fed’s December 9–10 rate decision. With retail sales, PPI, and core PCE on deck, traders are again calibrating policy expectations. Fear is giving way to curiosity—and that mindset could guide markets through the final stretch of 2025’s trading year. Bitcoin Bitcoin extended its rebound toward $88,000, supported by growing confidence in a December rate cut and a cleaner derivatives backdrop. Funding rates have flipped negative for the first time since October—historically a sign of seller exhaustion—while open interest has eased by nearly 10%, leaving fewer leveraged longs to unwind. A breakout above $87,000 would pressure concentrated short positions, potentially sparking a short squeeze and ushering in a test of upper-range liquidity. While ETF outflows persist, sentiment appears to be turning. Compression plus a catalyst is how ranges end and with macro tailwinds emerging, Bitcoin’s $84,000–$90,000 accumulation zone may soon resolve upward. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum regained footing around $2,900, leading broader altcoin strength. XRP jumped over 8%, buoyed by $164 million in first-day ETF inflows, outshining both Bitcoin and Ethereum funds and marking cumulative inflows near $587 million since mid-November. Solana also continued to attract institutional attention: spot Solana ETFs notched their 20th consecutive day of net inflows, adding $58 million Monday and lifting total assets to $843 million, or roughly 1% of SOL’s market cap. This consistency amid price weakness underscores deepening institutional engagement even as SOL’s token price remains in a 30% drawdown. Network contributors are now proposing SIMD-0411, a change that would double Solana’s disinflation pace, potentially pulling its inflation floor forward to 2029 and reducing cumulative supply by over 22 million SOL. Macro & Institutional Markets enter a decisive week as investors await a flood of backlogged U.S. data that will frame the Fed’s final move of 2025. Futures imply an 80% chance of a 25-bp cut in December, up sharply from 50% a week ago. Chair Powell’s allies appear ready to back easing, though the lack of October data keeps the committee split. Equities remain broadly firm—Alphabet is on track to test a $4 trillion valuation, and Dell reports after the close amid strong AI infrastructure demand. In crypto, institutional positioning continues to deepen. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet borrowed another $130 million against its 30,823 BTC treasury to expand its income-generation strategies, signaling growing sophistication in Bitcoin-backed finance. Meanwhile, the emergence of spot Dogecoin ETFs and the surge in XRP and Solana fund flows highlight a more diverse, maturing ETF landscape. Looking Ahead An intense week for macro has begun, with Tuesday and Wednesday set to deliver a cluster of key U.S. economic reports that could shape the Fed’s path ahead for monetary policy. Traders will parse PPI and retail sales, followed by consumer confidence on Tuesday, then jobless claims and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE and core PCE—on Wednesday, before Chicago PMI caps the week on Thursday. A softer data sequence could reinforce bets on a December rate cut and fuel a year-end risk bid; firmer readings might push markets back into consolidation. With policy clarity the spark, flows will define the next chapter. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – November 24, 2025 Renewal after the reset: Markets brace for a data-driven week Crypto markets steadied over the weekend as Bitcoin bounced off $85,000 to settle above $86,000 on Monday. Total crypto market capitalization is stabilizing just below $3 trillion, yet the Fear & Greed Index remains lodged in its lower bands — proof that conviction hasn’t caught up with price. Traditional markets offered little clarity: U.S. equities drifted after the October CPI release was canceled amid the government shutdown, and rate expectations remain in limbo without fresh data. With macro signals muted, positioning now speaks louder than policy, and liquidity dynamics are setting the market’s rhythm for the final stretch of November. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s structure remains defined by nearby liquidity shelves. Support sits at $85,700–$85,000, with deeper ladders at $84,000, $82,500–$81,500, and a heavy shelf near $79,000. Resistance thickens at $92,800–$93,400 — the first cap that would test short-covering strength. Flows continue to dictate sentiment: Bitcoin ETPs shed roughly $1.38 billion through mid-November. Still, Friday’s $238 million in net inflows marked the first positive print in over a week — a tentative signal that sidelined demand may be returning. Options positioning reinforces gravity near $85,000, where concentrated puts for December expiries have built a pin. Deribit’s data shows a persistent downside skew and rising implied volatility into near-dated maturities — a setup that still favors protection over pursuit. Between $79,000 and $93,000 lies the market’s memory; each level is a ledger entry in sentiment’s tug-of-war. If funding turns positive and open interest begins to unwind, mechanical short-covering could propel price toward $92,800. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum remains directionally tethered to Bitcoin’s range, holding near $3,050 with softer implied volatility ahead of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, expected to improve validator efficiency and network performance. Solana trades around $165, extending its lead among Layer-1s as ETF inflows continue for a third consecutive week. XRP is steady near $0.74, while Dogecoin holds around $0.18 — both in focus as the NYSE prepares to list their respective ETFs on Monday, marking a new chapter for retail-accessible alt exposure. For Ethereum and Solana, progress on staking and tokenization could turn stability into a base; for XRP and Dogecoin, liquidity from new listings will test whether attention can translate into sustained demand. Macro & Institutional Macro visibility has narrowed sharply. The canceled October CPI release and delayed jobs data have left the Fed without a clear read on inflation. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index has tightened from early fall, keeping risk appetite capped under nearby resistance. Meanwhile, the New York Fed has hinted at potential balance-sheet expansion for reserves management — a medium-term liquidity cue rather than an immediate catalyst. On the institutional side, lower miner fee share (down 15% week-on-week) and hashprice near $33 per PH per day point to tighter margins and the likelihood of supply emerging into rallies. Stablecoin supply remains steady near $300 billion, leaving dry powder on the sidelines — liquidity may be scarce, but conviction is scarcer, and the market will reward whichever returns first. Looking Ahead The week ahead brings a dense macro calendar that could reintroduce direction to risk assets: Germany’s Q3 GDP, U.S. PPI and Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; Jobless Claims and PCE inflation data on Wednesday; and Chicago PMI rounding out the week on Friday. Together, these releases will shape expectations for the Fed’s December meeting and test whether liquidity can turn from headwind to tailwind. For now, the market trades between fear and flow, balancing cautious positioning against the first signs of stabilization. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

This week’s data will test the Fed’s resolve: inflation, spending, and hiring trends all land ahead of the December pivot watch: 🇩🇪 German GDP (QoQ, Q3) – Nov 25, 07:00 GMT 🇺🇸 U.S. PPI (MoM & YoY, Sep) – Nov 25, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM & YoY, Sep) – Nov 25, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) – Nov 25, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Nov 26, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 PCE & Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY, Sep) – Nov 26, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Nov) – Nov 28, 14:45 GMT

Daily Market Dispatch – November 21, 2025 Bitcoin tests support as outflows weigh Crypto markets extended their correction Friday, with Bitcoin sliding to a seven-month low beneath $82,000 as the broader risk environment turned defensive. The total crypto market cap sits near $2.7 trillion, down roughly 3% on the day. Roughly $1.2 trillion in value has evaporated from digital assets over the past six weeks, mirroring the retreat in equities as investors recalibrate to a stickier inflation outlook and fading hopes of a December Fed rate cut. Traditional markets are showing similar fatigue. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are each down around 3% for the week, pressured by stronger U.S. jobs data and renewed unease over AI-driven valuations. Japan’s new ¥21 trillion stimulus and the U.K.’s looming budget have done little to lift sentiment. This pullback looks less like panic and more like a recalibration, a market testing how much policy support remains as the year draws to a close. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s drop below $82,000 underscores how closely it continues to track high-beta equities. Still, the asset recovered towards $85,000 on the day. Stronger-than-expected payrolls erased near-term rate-cut bets, draining liquidity from the same corners of the market that thrived under easy policy. Still, the underlying structure remains intact: ETF assets total $113 billion – around 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap – while long-term holders remain steady. JPMorgan analysts noted that this latest downturn has been driven less by crypto-native deleveraging and more by retail outflows from spot ETFs. This phase resembles portfolio trimming rather than capitulation. Each cycle has seen similar drawdowns before renewed accumulation. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin feels it first and often leads the recovery once macro conditions stabilize. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether lost 7% to $2,700, with most major altcoins lower. Spot ETF redemptions accelerated to $261 million on Thursday, yet inflows into newly launched XRP, SOL, and HBAR funds suggest investors are rotating within the asset class rather than exiting altogether. Ethereum’s network activity remains steady: Layer-2 throughput is firm, staking rates are holding, and developer engagement is robust. The market’s repricing hasn’t interrupted the underlying trend of institutional experimentation with tokenization and infrastructure. In this sense, the correction appears cyclical, not structural as prices adjust faster than fundamentals. Macro & Institutional The macro backdrop remains heavy. U.S. equities endured another sharp sell-off Thursday as the probability of a December rate cut fell to roughly 30%. Japan’s fiscal package aims to sustain growth and strengthen its semiconductor and AI sectors, while the yen’s weakness keeps traders alert for intervention. In the U.K., falling retail sales and higher borrowing costs complicate Chancellor Reeves’s pre-budget arithmetic. Institutional flows reflected the cautious tone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $903 million in outflows Thursday, their second-largest on record. Yet cumulative inflows remain near $57 billion, a reminder that long-term positioning has not unraveled. Institutions appear to be trimming exposure rather than exiting, maintaining liquidity while waiting for a clearer policy signal. Looking Ahead Next week will be a busy and defining one for macro, with a dense data lineup that could steer risk sentiment into year-end. Highlights include Germany’s Q3 GDP, U.S. retail sales, PPI, CB consumer confidence, initial jobless claims, and the core PCE indexl the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, alongside the Fed’s balance sheet update. The recalibration underway could lay the groundwork for a steadier close to 2025 as rate expectations and liquidity conditions gradually converge. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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