Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – November 4, 2025 Conviction test: Bitcoin and markets pause The crypto market opened November on the defensive, with total capitalization sliding to $3.45 trillion, its lowest since July. Risk sentiment weakened across both digital and traditional markets as traders reassessed valuations and the Fed’s next move. Leading spot crypto ETFs saw renewed outflows, barring Solana’s products, which continued to attract capital. U.S. equity futures followed the same cautious tone, led by a 1.3% drop in Nasdaq contracts. The ISM manufacturing index showed another month of contraction, while the ongoing government shutdown has left policymakers flying blind without key data. Still, corporate earnings remain resilient, and the AI-driven investment boom — highlighted by Amazon’s $38 billion partnership with OpenAI — continues to anchor optimism. Bitcoin Bitcoin extended its pullback toward $104,000, reflecting softer risk appetite and ongoing uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. The move came alongside $186 million in spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on Monday and a stronger U.S. dollar, both weighing modestly on sentiment. Beneath the price action, however, Bitcoin’s network remains steady. Fees, block sizes, and network activity continue to normalize, pointing to a steadier, less speculative market structure. The blockchain is calm even as broader markets adjust — a pattern that often signals the late stage of consolidation. Miner profitability remains healthy, and with leverage steadily declining, the foundation for a more durable recovery appears to be forming. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum dropped 6% to around $3,500, while Solana fell 10% and XRP lost 5%, mirroring Bitcoin’s decline. Yet institutional participation remains visible beneath the surface. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $135 million in outflows, while Solana funds posted $70 million in inflows, extending their streak of positive weeks — a signal that some investors are leaning into volatility instead of fleeing from it. At the corporate level, BitMine added over 82,000 ETH last week, bringing its holdings to nearly 3.4 million coins — about 2.8% of total supply. The accumulation underscores that major treasuries now treat Ethereum as a strategic asset rather than a speculative position. Rotation, not retreat, defines institutional behavior as capital calibrates toward assets built for durability. Macro & Institutional Traditional markets reflected similar unease. U.S. stock futures and commodities retreated as investors questioned the sustainability of high valuations and debated whether the Fed will follow through with another rate cut in December. Powell’s restrained tone was offset by more dovish remarks from colleagues, leaving policy expectations split. Gold slipped below $4,000 per ounce under dollar strength, while oil prices eased after OPEC’s modest supply hike. Still, liquidity remains active where innovation meets productivity, as the continued flood of capital into AI infrastructure — from Amazon’s and AMD’s expanding initiatives — shows that even in a cooling macro climate, conviction finds its channel. Looking Ahead The market now turns to a packed macro calendar that could steer sentiment through the week, including the RBA interest rate decision and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday, the ADP employment report, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and S&P Global Services PMI on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision on Wednesday. Consolidation is not capitulation — it’s the market’s way of rebuilding strength before conviction returns. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – November 3, 2025 Crypto opens November cautiously as Bitcoin protects $106,000 The crypto market begins the week on a softer footing, with total capitalization around $3.6 trillion, down roughly 3% after a volatile October. Positioning has normalized following early-month losses, and trading is being guided primarily by ETF flows and macro signals. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic releases, leaving investors to focus on ISM and ADP data for labor and growth indicators. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher after a positive October, while oil and gold trade steady ahead of another week packed with corporate earnings and central-bank commentary. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading below $107,000, extending its pullback after recording its first negative October since 2018. The market remains anchored around $106,400, a level that has repeatedly defined direction through the current cycle. Sustained closes above that threshold would open upside targets toward $108,000–$110,500, while a breakdown would likely expose $105,000–$103,800. Spot ETF flows turned negative again last week, with around $799 million in outflows, and the Coinbase premium remains below zero, signaling subdued U.S. demand. Open interest and funding rates continue to normalize, suggesting a de-leveraged market that’s waiting for fresh catalysts. For now, price action favors consolidation rather than a clear directional move. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is holding relatively firm above $3600 on fundamentals even as price momentum softens. Stablecoin settlement volumes on Ethereum hit a record $2.82 trillion in October, a 45% increase month-over-month, led by USDC and USDT. The rise reflects capital remaining active on-chain as traders position for yield and liquidity rotation. This buildup suggests that ETH and DeFi assets could benefit first if policy signals turn more accommodative into December. Meanwhile, broader altcoin performance remains mixed — Solana-linked products are seeing selective inflows, but most large caps continue to track Bitcoin’s consolidation range. Macro & Institutional The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.75–4.00 percent has kept risk appetite supported, though the absence of new data is constraining conviction. The ISM and ADP reports this week will serve as key inputs ahead of the December meeting, while investors also monitor the Supreme Court’s tariff hearings and the upcoming Bank of England decision. Oil prices are slightly higher after OPEC+ maintained current output levels and signaled a pause in early 2026; gold has stabilized after two weekly losses; copper remains muted amid weak Chinese factory data. Institutional accumulation continues. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, added 397 BTC between October 27 and November 2, lifting its total holdings to 641,205 BTC at an average cost of $74,000. The firm continues to fund purchases through equity and preferred stock issuance, and despite weaker valuations across treasury-heavy firms, institutional accumulation remains a steady anchor for market liquidity. Looking Ahead ETF flows remain the key short-term driver: holding above $106,400 would support a gradual recovery toward $110,000, while losing that level could extend the pullback toward $104,000. With U.S. data limited by the shutdown, sentiment will be guided by ETF prints, treasury accumulation, and policy expectations heading into year-end. Key macro releases this week include the RBA interest rate decision, U.S. JOLTS job openings, ADP nonfarm employment change, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and the Bank of England’s rate decision. The broader setup points to stabilization and consolidation — a market pausing for confirmation rather than one reversing trend. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 31, 2025 Crypto steadies as ETF flows cool and macro tone turns mixed The total crypto market cap hovered near $3.69 trillion, stabilizing after a volatile week shaped by shifting Fed signals and renewed tech strength. Bitcoin held around $110,000 and Ether near $3,900, both digesting heavier U.S. ETF outflows – Bitcoin and Ethereum funds lost $488 million and $184 million, respectively, as investors trimmed exposure into month-end. Solana drew $37 million in inflows, pointing to selective institutional demand for high-throughput assets amid a cautious risk tone. U.S. futures advanced after strong Apple and Amazon results offset earlier tech weakness. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% and 1.4%, supported by Apple’s 10–12% holiday-quarter outlook and Amazon’s 20% cloud growth. Still, Fed Chair Powell’s comment that a December rate cut is far from assured kept yields firm and sentiment restrained heading into November. Bitcoin Bitcoin consolidated below $110,000, marking its first negative October since 2018 but showing resilience. Long-term holder spending has risen steadily – from roughly $1 billion per day in July to $2–3 billion by early October, driven mainly by six- to twelve-month holders whose realized sales peaked near the $126,000 all-time high at about $648 million per day, five times their early-year baseline. Unlike previous spikes, this phase has been gradual and well-absorbed, reflecting portfolio rotation rather than retreat. ETF markets and institutional desks have taken supply smoothly, broadening the base of ownership. With volatility subdued and derivatives positioning light, Bitcoin appears to be in a low-energy consolidation ahead of clearer macro signals. Distribution in this cycle looks less like exit and more like renewal – a sign of structural maturity rather than exhaustion. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether hovered near $3,900 as ETF redemptions weighed, but attention is shifting to the Fusaka upgrade expected in early December. The update will expand data capacity and lower Layer-2 costs, reinforcing Ethereum’s role as the settlement and data hub of decentralized finance, even if short-term prices remain range-bound. Solana again outperformed. Three consecutive days of ETF inflows show that new demand is absorbing supply from older wallets. Prices have held between $180–$200, with open interest approaching $10 billion—evidence of deeper liquidity and reduced volatility. Macro & Institutional Global macro signals remain mixed but broadly stable. Strong tech earnings underscored resilient consumer demand and AI-driven productivity, while Nvidia’s plan to ship 260,000 AI chips to South Korea reinforced the sector’s investment momentum. China’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0, marking a seventh month of contraction and keeping the global growth picture uneven. Brent and WTI crude each traded near $64 per barrel, heading for a third monthly decline as rising OPEC+ output offsets modest demand growth. Institutionally, tokenization continues to gain traction. Standard Chartered projects the market for tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, to reach $2 trillion by 2028, led by money-market and equity tokens on Ethereum. Looking Ahead Crypto enters November in consolidation. ETF redemptions must ease for new momentum to form, while macro data – including next week’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Bank of England’s rate decision, and fresh Fed remarks – will guide risk tone. Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to stay range-bound, supported by structural demand but capped by cautious liquidity. Solana and other high-throughput assets retain moderate upside if ETF participation persists. Investors continue to trade selectivity over sentiment, positioning for a data-driven November where throughput, yield, and liquidity define opportunity. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – October 30, 2025 Markets calm as the Fed cools sentiment The total crypto market cap eased toward $3.71 trillion after the Federal Reserve delivered its second straight 25 bps rate cut to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% while signaling caution on further easing. Chair Powell said another move in December is “far from” guaranteed, prompting a measured risk-off tone across assets. ETF flows reflected this recalibration — Bitcoin funds saw $470 million in outflows, Ethereum lost $81 million, while Solana gained $47 million, suggesting rotation rather than retreat as investors tilt toward yield-bearing, high-throughput networks. Gold rose modestly as the softer dollar provided support, though upside remains limited by policy uncertainty. Oil stayed weak, heading for a third monthly decline amid oversupply concerns. U.S. equity futures are slightly lower as markets digest Powell’s tone and a busy week of tech earnings. Strong results from Alphabet and Microsoft highlighted durable AI and cloud demand, while Meta’s heavy spending plans tempered sentiment. With Amazon and Apple still to report, investors are weighing whether fundamentals can offset a slower Fed path. Bitcoin Bitcoin is consolidating above $108,000. The short-term holders’ cost basis near $113,000 remains the key resistance, with long-term selling capping momentum. On-chain data point to recalibration rather than capitulation, with distribution offset by steady institutional participation via ETFs. Volatility has cooled sharply since October’s crash, and skew has flattened as options positioning normalizes. That calm rests on policy expectations — a dovish Fed should preserve stability, but a hawkish surprise could reignite demand for downside hedging. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound in a rebuild phase, awaiting clearer signals from ETF flows and Friday’s large options expiry. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum slipped 2.7% to $3,915, with altcoins broadly softer. The pullback follows cautious Fed rhetoric but continues to highlight selective positioning rather than broad de-risking. Solana again diverged, with $47 million in ETF inflows underscoring sustained institutional interest. Its blend of throughput, staking yield, and network activity positions it as a preferred vehicle for rotation within the altcoin market, as investors favor scalable assets with yield potential. Macro & Institutional The Fed’s message is clear: policy is easing but conditional. The rate cut, paired with the decision to end quantitative tightening on Dec 1, adds liquidity while keeping flexibility. Divided views among policymakers and limited economic data amid the government shutdown leave the pace of future cuts uncertain. Tech results reinforced this cautious optimism — Alphabet and Microsoft delivered strong cloud and AI-driven growth, while Meta’s cost concerns and upcoming results from Amazon and Apple will further shape expectations. Improving U.S.–China trade signals and steady corporate results point toward gradual, data-driven easing rather than a rapid pivot. In digital assets, product expansion continues, with new ETFs such as Solana’s staking product and 21Shares’ Hyperliquid filing signaling persistent institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure. Looking Ahead The next key catalyst arrives Friday, when roughly $13 billion in Bitcoin options expire around the $100,000–$111,000 range — levels that could drive sharp intraday swings as dealers rebalance exposure. Beyond this, attention turns to next week’s macro calendar: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, the Bank of England’s rate decision, and S&P Global Services PMI will all test assumptions on growth and policy direction. For now, investors are trading selectivity, not sentiment — favoring scalable, yield-bearing assets as post-Fed liquidity and rotation trends set the tone for November. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – October 29, 2025 All eyes on Powell: guidance to drive post-Fed market reaction Markets are poised for the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut today, but the focus is squarely on Jerome Powell’s guidance. With the U.S. government shutdown depriving policymakers of key data, Powell’s comments on the path to December 10 will steer sentiment across asset classes. U.S. equity futures edge higher after the S&P 500 topped 6,900 for the first time, while anticipation builds around mega-cap tech earnings and potential progress in U.S.–China trade talks. With investors keeping measured risk exposure low, forward guidance takes precedence over the rate move in shaping market reactions. Crypto trades broadly in step with global markets. Total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.81 trillion, even as U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $202 million and Ethereum ETFs $246 million in net inflows on Tuesday — signaling sustained institutional allocation despite softer turnover. The underlying bid suggests investors are positioning for a post-Fed relief move if Powell signals further policy flexibility despite limited data. A 25-basis-point cut narrows the cost of capital — Powell’s tone sets the cost of conviction. Bitcoin Bitcoin holds near $113,000, consolidating below $115,000 ahead of the FOMC decision. Price action remains confined between $111,000 and $117,000, reflecting light positioning and compressed implied volatility as traders await clarity from the Fed. ETF inflows continue to support a stable base, though momentum remains subdued. A dovish cut combined with a hint of December easing could prompt a break above resistance, while a cautious Powell risks another retest of support near $111,000. Open interest clustering around current levels of $35 billlion signals scope for short-term volatility once the statement and press conference hit. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum trades around $4,000, with majors softer into the Fed meeting. Altcoins mostly track broader risk sentiment, though Solana stands out after its spot ETF debut drew roughly $69.5 million in first-day inflows — the strongest ETF launch volume of the year. The showing highlights growing institutional appetite for alternative exposures even in a risk-off setup. Macro & Institutional The rate cut is fully priced, but the reaction function is not. With both labor and inflation data unavailable due to the shutdown, Powell faces the challenge of offering guidance without fresh economic inputs. Markets will key in on whether he signals an end to quantitative tightening, adjusts inflation rhetoric, or keeps December easing on the table. Beyond the Fed, geopolitical momentum builds as President Trump’s Asia tour fuels expectations of an easing in U.S.–China trade tensions. Nvidia remains the equity market’s bellwether, inching toward a $5 trillion valuation on speculation of relaxed export controls. Oil prices are steady after inventory draws, while gold has reclaimed the $4,000 per ounce level as investors hedge policy uncertainty and rising volatility risk. Looking Ahead This week delivers one of the heaviest macro calendars of the quarter, assuming scheduled data releases proceed despite the ongoing government shutdown. The Fed’s rate decision and press conference lead the lineup on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, U.S. Q3 GDP, and the European Central Bank meeting on October 30. China’s Manufacturing PMI arrives on October 31, ahead of the U.S. Core PCE, PCE Price Index, and Chicago PMI later that day. With multiple central banks in play and critical data at risk of delay, markets could remain range-bound into the decision before a potential relief rally if Powell strikes a dovish tone. A cautious stance, however, may keep volatility contained until the next key policy catalyst on December 10. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 28, 2025 Bitcoin builds on Fed catalyst anticipation Bitcoin begins the week steady near $114,500, extending its recovery from the $108,000 lows as renewed ETF inflows and macro positioning set the tone ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. The broader crypto market cap holds around $3.86 trillion, reflecting resilience amid policy uncertainty. Traditional markets opened the week cautiously firmer, with U.S. equities edging higher on expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut, Treasury yields stabilizing near two-month lows, and the dollar holding steady after last week’s softening. Gold trades slightly higher in the same environment, supported by easing real yields and investor preference for hedging ahead of the policy window. The macro setup remains tightly connected to digital assets—front-end guidance transmits through real yields and the dollar into ETF allocations and derivatives leverage, making this week’s tone from Chair Powell pivotal for near-term market direction. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s clearest sign of recovery is the $149 million in fresh ETF inflows over recent sessions, reversing prior outflows and signaling renewed institutional appetite. The asset currently trades around $114,500, consolidating within a narrow band after its climb from $108K earlier in the month. U.S. spot funds have oscillated between sharp withdrawals and inflows through October, but momentum has turned positive as positioning rebuilds into the Fed event. Spot buying and selling appear largely balanced, with daily volumes hovering around $5 billion on each side, suggesting a stable market structure as traders await a policy catalyst. Derivatives positioning is elevated, with rising open interest and modestly positive funding rates indicating steady long exposure but little excess. The current setup leaves Bitcoin sensitive to macro catalysts, where even small policy surprises could produce amplified two-way volatility around the decision window. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s tone, underpinned by $133 million in ETF inflows that reinforce the recovery narrative. The asset trades above $4,100, supported by stable open interest and reduced liquidations following last week’s brief risk-off episode. Broader altcoin participation remains limited as traders await macro clarity, though a dovish Fed signal could unlock short-term rotation into higher-beta assets and improve breadth across the crypto complex. Macro & Institutional Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with guidance and tone now more influential than the move itself. A cautious 25-bp cut would anchor front-end expectations and keep yields flat to slightly lower, favoring range-bound trading with dip-buying interest. A more dovish tone could pull real yields down, soften the dollar, and widen ETF participation, opening a 6–12% upside window over the following 72 hours. Conversely, a hold or firm tone would lift real yields and strengthen the dollar, historically a combination that pressures ETF flows and prompts downside corrections. Looking Ahead The week ahead offers one of the richest macro lineups of the quarter. The U.S. Consumer Confidence report arrives today, followed by the Fed interest-rate decision and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan announces its policy outcome before the U.S. Q3 GDP print, and the European Central Bank delivers its own decision and press briefing. Friday brings the China Manufacturing PMI, followed by the U.S. Core PCE, PCE Price Index, and Chicago PMI, rounding out a dense macro sequence that could reshape cross-asset positioning. As one key takeaway: Bitcoin’s next leg depends less on the cut itself and more on how the Fed defines the path ahead. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 27, 2025 Crypto gains ground ahead of a heavy macro week Crypto markets are starting the week on a firm footing, with total capitalization edging up to $3.88 trillion. Bitcoin futures open interest climbed above $36 billion, marking a steady rise over the past week and signaling renewed institutional and speculative engagement. Ethereum is following suit, with open interest above $24 billion, reflecting growing conviction across the broader market. ETF flows closed the week mixed — Bitcoin ETFs recorded $90 million in net inflows on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs saw $93 million in outflows, highlighting the market’s tilt toward Bitcoin exposure ahead of a dense macro calendar. The rebound follows improving sentiment on U.S.–China trade progress and rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut this week. Traditional markets are echoing that optimism. Equities hover near record highs on solid earnings and easing inflation, bond yields remain anchored, gold is easing as risk appetite improves, and the dollar has softened ahead of major central bank decisions. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed ground above $115,000 as last week’s short squeeze matured into a steadier advance. The rally has been led by spot accumulation rather than leverage, supported by subdued funding and consistent ETF demand. On-chain data show that aggressive selling has largely subsided, while flattened cumulative volume delta suggests sellers are finally exhausted. The setup highlights a classic imbalance: ETF demand is steady while supply on exchanges isn’t — a bullish asymmetry that continues to define this cycle. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum climbed toward $4,200, tracking Bitcoin’s move with balanced funding and growing spot participation — evidence of a recovery built on conviction rather than leverage. Solana has reclaimed the $200 level, while XRP and BNB added modest gains, reflecting a broad recovery across large caps. With front-end volatility softening even as spot prices rise, dips are no longer generous opportunities. If volatility continues to compress after the Fed, rotation could broaden across high-liquidity names, with Layer-2 ecosystems likely to lead momentum into November. Macro & Institutional Institutional participation remains robust. Strategy, the world’s largest bitcoin-treasury company, added 390 BTC (~$43 million) at an average of $111,117, lifting total holdings to 640,808 BTC for roughly 3% of Bitcoin’s capped supply. The acquisition reinforces the view that treasuries keep stacking while circulating float keeps shrinking. At the fund level, digital asset investment products saw $921 million in weekly inflows, reversing the prior week’s outflows. Bitcoin products led the charge, while Ethereum vehicles recorded their first net outflow in five weeks — a sign that capital rotation remains disciplined rather than speculative. Looking Ahead The spotlight this week falls squarely on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in another 25-basis-point cut, with attention shifting to how Chair Powell frames the balance between slowing growth and sticky inflation. A more dovish tone could extend the current risk-on momentum, while any hint of caution might cool the rally across both equities and digital assets. Liquidity remains the key variable — easing policy would reinforce the view that monetary conditions are turning from headwind to tailwind, particularly for high-beta assets like Bitcoin. Beyond the Fed, investors will digest a full slate of data and central bank updates: U.S. New Home Sales (Mon), Consumer Confidence (Tue), GDP (Thu), Core PCE and PCE Price Index (Fri), as well as BoJ and ECB decisions on Thursday and China’s Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Together, these releases will test whether the market’s optimism can transition into a more durable phase of global reflation. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 24, 2025 Softer U.S. Inflation reinforces rate-cut outlook; bitcoin holds above $111,000 The crypto market traded steadily on Friday, with total capitalization hovering around $3.76 trillion after the release of the September U.S. CPI report, the first major data since the federal shutdown. The figures showed inflation cooling slightly below expectations, confirming that price pressures continue to ease ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28–29 meeting. Headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, just under the 3.1% forecast, while core inflation held steady at 3.0%. Month-on-month, prices increased 0.3%, matching August’s moderation and signaling that inflation is easing even if the Fed’s 2% target remains distant. The data reinforced expectations for policy easing, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October and another on December 10. Bitcoin Bitcoin held its ground above $111,000, signaling that the softer CPI reading was largely priced in. The asset’s stability suggests investor confidence in an upcoming rate-cut cycle and a supportive macro backdrop for risk assets. Futures open interest remained stable near $35 billion, consistent with a measured rebuild in leverage since mid-year. ETF inflows of around $20 million this week underscored steady institutional participation. With inflation cooling and rate cuts in sight, Bitcoin’s current consolidation appears to be a pause, not exhaustion. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s steady tone, with Ethereum up 2.4% to $3,978, Solana gaining 3.2%, and XRP and Cardano each adding about 1%. Polygon slipped 3.5%, while Dogecoin rose roughly 2%. Ethereum’s futures open interest climbed above $20 billion, mirroring Bitcoin’s structure and reflecting renewed confidence. Despite $127 million in ETF outflows, the move appears rotational rather than risk-off. A sustained easing narrative could see Ethereum track Bitcoin higher as investors rotate back into higher-beta assets. Solana continues to build institutional traction, hosting roughly $629 million in tokenized real-world assets, led by Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX and Circle’s USYC fund. Network resilience during the recent AWS outage and low fees reinforce its standing as a leading venue for tokenized finance. Macro & Institutional The softer CPI print confirmed that inflation pressures are easing, strengthening the case for policy relaxation at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Equity futures edged higher — Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%, while gold slipped below $4,100. Bitcoin mining stocks remain decoupled from spot prices as miners pivot toward AI infrastructure. The average cost to mine one bitcoin remains near $92,000, projected to rise toward $180,000 by 2028. Meanwhile, tokenization continues to draw institutional capital seeking compliant, on-chain yield opportunities. Looking Ahead With CPI confirming a mild cooling trend, markets now turn to the Fed’s October 29 decision for confirmation of policy easing. Bitcoin’s firm footing above $111,000, Ethereum’s revived leverage, and Solana’s institutional growth all point to a market that has priced in softer inflation — and is positioning for a lower-rate environment. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 23, 2025 Caution in markets ahead of key data and trade uncertainty Crypto markets steadied after recent turbulence, with total capitalization hovering around $3.68 trillion as traders recalibrated risk amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and uneven global sentiment. Bitcoin held near $109,500 while Ethereum hovered just below $3,900, reflecting a broader wait-and-see tone ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Traditional markets mirrored the same caution. U.S. stock futures were mixed as corporate earnings offered little conviction and investors weighed Washington’s latest trade measures against Beijing. Oil surged more than 4% after new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy firms, while gold regained safe-haven demand on the back of geopolitical strain. The dollar stayed firm ahead of Friday’s delayed CPI release, underscoring how investors remain on edge before next week’s Fed meeting. Bitcoin Bitcoin remains range-bound, reflecting cautious risk sentiment and fading market momentum. The asset rose 0.8% to hover above $109,000 but continues to trade below the short-term holders’ cost basis of $113,100 — a sign of lingering fatigue following this month’s flash crash. Despite record-high open interest, sentiment leans defensive as traders favor puts over calls and rallies are met with hedging rather than new inflows. Long-term holders have accelerated profit-taking, offloading over 22,000 BTC per day since July — a structural shift that continues to pressure market stability. The failure to reclaim the $110,000–$113,000 zone signals a market in transition: exuberance has cooled, and recovery will depend on renewed spot demand and easing volatility. Bitcoin isn’t broken — it’s breathing, consolidating after excess leverage and fading liquidity. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s restraint, with total crypto market capitalization steady near $3.68 trillion. Ethereum held at $3,855, while BNB outperformed, rising 3% to $1,103. XRP, Solana, and Cardano posted mild upticks, and meme tokens saw mixed action as the “Uptober” optimism faded. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $18 million, reflecting broader investor caution. Rotations remain selective rather than risk-on — capital is parked, not fleeing. Macro & Institutional Macro drivers reasserted dominance. U.S. equities drifted as earnings season produced a mixed picture — Tesla’s weaker margins offset optimism around solid S&P 500 growth, while Intel’s pending results will test investor appetite for AI-exposed semiconductors. In commodities, Brent surged past $65 per barrel after Washington sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, tightening supply expectations and supporting European energy shares. Gold climbed to $4,137 per ounce, rebounding from a two-week low as trade tension headlines and fresh sanctions boosted safe-haven flows. The yen weakened to 152.4 per dollar, while sterling stabilized near $1.33 as investors positioned for another potential BoE rate cut later this year. Institutionally, the crypto ETF race continues to accelerate despite the U.S. government shutdown. Over 155 cryptocurrency-based products are now pending approval, spanning 35 assets — from Bitcoin and Solana to XRP and Ethereum. Spot ETFs already command nearly $150 billion in Bitcoin and $24 billion in Ethereum assets, underscoring the sector’s institutional maturity. Scale, not speculation, is becoming the new competitive edge. Looking Ahead Markets await Friday’s U.S. inflation print for clues on whether the Fed will maintain its dovish tilt. In the near term, volatility remains data-dependent and liquidity-sensitive as traders gauge how trade policy, sanctions, and earnings interact with the broader easing cycle. In short: global liquidity is moving, but conviction isn’t — and until macro clarity returns, both crypto and equities will trade more on positioning than belief. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 22, 2025 All eyes on U.S. CPI as Bitcoin seesaws and gold rebounds Digital assets edged lower midweek as traders turned cautious ahead of fresh inflation data, even as BTC- and ETH-based ETFs attracted renewed inflows — a sign of steady interest. The global crypto market held steady at $3.63 trillion on Wednesday, showing tentative recovery after a volatile start to October. Bitcoin and major altcoins traded narrowly lower, supported by renewed inflows into spot ETFs and signs of stabilizing risk sentiment across broader markets. Still, the overall tone remains cautious as investors brace for the U.S. CPI release later this week — the first key inflation data since the federal shutdown began and the last before the Federal Reserve’s October 29 meeting. In traditional markets, U.S. futures hovered near flat, gold rebounded from its steepest drop in five years, and Netflix earnings weighed on tech sentiment. The muted cross-asset tone reflects a market balancing near-term volatility against expectations of further rate cuts and an eventual return of liquidity. Bitcoin Bitcoin slipped 0.9% to $107,500 before recovering towards $108,500. Despite the soft tone, institutional appetite is showing early signs of stabilization. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $477 million in net inflows on Tuesday, with aggregate trading volumes exceeding $7 billion for a second straight session. The BTC-to-gold ratio remains near multi-year lows, signaling that rotation from safe-haven assets into digital ones is still in early stages. Bitcoin’s ability to sustain ETF inflows despite price pressure points to renewed confidence in its role as a liquid, alternative store of value — and hints at early accumulation ahead of a potential liquidity-driven rebound. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s caution, with Ether down 0.5% to $3,843, BNB off 0.7% to $1,061, and Solana steady around $184. Yet beneath the quiet price action, ETF demand showed renewed strength: spot Ethereum ETFs saw $141 million in inflows on Tuesday. The return to positive flows reflects improving institutional sentiment after a week of turbulence in broader markets. At the same time, Hong Kong’s securities regulator approved ChinaAMC’s spot Solana ETF, the world’s first, set to list on Oct. 27. The move underscores the global race to expand regulated access to digital assets and highlights growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. Macro & Institutional Gold’s volatility remains the defining macro driver. After falling over 5% on Tuesday to about $4,125/oz, the metal rebounded above $4,150 as traders hunted for bargains and the dollar eased. The retracement follows a near-30% rally since August — a move that now appears stretched and is prompting some reallocation into higher-beta assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, crypto adoption continues to accelerate globally. South Asia is leading with 80% year-on-year growth, while the U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in transaction volume between January and July, according to TRM Labs’ 2025 Crypto Adoption and Stablecoin Usage Report. Stablecoins now account for nearly 30% of all crypto transactions, underscoring their role as the backbone of digital liquidity. Looking Ahead The coming days center on the U.S. Consumer Price Index, due Friday, which will serve as the Federal Reserve’s key input before its late-October meeting. A cooler reading could reinforce the prevailing dovish outlook and bolster risk appetite across digital assets, while a hotter figure risks short-term consolidation near Bitcoin’s $100,000 support zone. Ahead of the release, investors will also parse comments from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as initial jobless claims and new home sales data later in the week. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 21, 2025 Markets hold their breath ahead of key U.S. inflation data Markets are stabilizing slowly as traders navigate a mix of easing trade tensions, shifting liquidity, and uneven risk appetite. The total crypto market cap has slightly declined to $3.66 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum retreating alongside a broader slowdown in sentiment. Bitcoin slipped 2.6% to $107,712, extending last week’s reversal as ETF flows softened and traders awaited fresh catalysts. Beyond crypto, traditional markets ticked higher, with U.S. stock futures up around 0.1% to 1% as investors weighed a packed earnings calendar and looked ahead to Friday’s CPI release, which could confirm expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate cut later this month. Gold fell 1.8% to $4,283/oz, snapping its record-breaking run as easing U.S.–China trade tensions trimmed safe-haven demand, while oil stabilized near $57/barrel and Asian equities gained on Japan’s political transition. It’s cautious risk rotation—capital isn’t fleeing, it’s changing lanes. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $107,712 after briefly reclaiming $111,000 on Monday. Futures open interest has climbed back above $35 billion and is edging toward $40 billion, suggesting engagement is quietly returning even as spot demand remains soft. The early-October pullback still casts a shadow over positioning, keeping traders defensive and focused on short-term setups. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $40.5 million in net outflows on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive session of redemptions. Even so, derivatives activity points to rotation rather than retreat—Bitcoin’s resilience now lies less in sympathy rallies and more in how it endures when everything else is green. A sustained push in open interest above $40 billion would confirm renewed conviction for a retest of $110,000; without it, BTC is likely to continue consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum fell 5.3% to $3,859, slipping below the $4,000 threshold as broader risk appetite cooled. XRP lost 2.2% to $2.4145, while BNB dropped 5.7%. Solana and Cardano declined between 4% and 6%, reflecting continued rotation. The altcoin market cap sits near $1.48 trillion, still around $120 billion below its 2021 high, a clear signal that the current cycle remains Bitcoin-led. In past bull markets, altcoins eventually surpassed prior peaks before a broader top formed. This time, ETF-driven inflows remain concentrated in Bitcoin while liquidity constraints and rate uncertainty hold back risk rotation. Macro & Institutional Traditional markets are steady but cautious. Dow futures are down 0.2%, S&P 500 by 0.1%, and Nasdaq by 0.2% as investors brace for earnings from Netflix, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola, and Philip Morris. In Asia, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister, pledging fiscal support that helped local equities climb to fresh highs. For digital assets, the macro backdrop remains the key swing factor as liquidity trends and rate expectations continue to dictate short-term direction. Looking Ahead All eyes are on Friday’s U.S. CPI release, the defining event of the week for both traditional and digital markets. The print will test expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut later this month and set the tone for risk assets heading into November. A softer reading would reinforce the easing narrative, supporting liquidity conditions that favor high-beta assets like crypto, while a surprise to the upside could briefly tighten financial conditions and extend the consolidation across markets. In the lead-up, traders will parse remarks from Fed Governor Waller and Vice Chair Barr, along with midweek U.K. inflation data and U.S. jobless claims, but the CPI outcome remains the decisive signal. For crypto, ETF flows and Bitcoin’s open interest will show whether investors are willing to re-engage as macro visibility improves. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 20, 2025 Crypto steadies as risk sentiment improves and gold holds near highs Crypto markets began the week on firmer footing as risk appetite returned across global assets. The total digital asset market cap edged above $3.76 trillion, buoyed by Bitcoin’s rebound over $110,000 and broad-based gains in Ethereum and major altcoins. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is trending toward neutral, though still in fear territory—a sign that sentiment is stabilizing but confidence remains cautious. Bitcoin’s recovery coincides with a softening in U.S.–China trade rhetoric and renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month. Global markets are showing similar signs of relief: U.S. equity futures point higher, gold remains close to record highs, and oil stays weak on slowing demand. In Asia, China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year—slightly above forecasts but at its slowest pace in a year. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed $110,000, reversing part of last week’s slide that briefly tested the low-$103,000s. The rebound tracks a broader “risk-on” turn and growing conviction that the Fed will cut rates later this month, with shutdown-delayed CPI now due Friday. Market positioning has normalized after last week’s correction, when Spot BTC ETFs posted the second-largest outflows since launch, coinciding with Bitcoin’s move from $121,000 to $103,700. That capitulation flow has faded into early-week stabilization. Price now straddles pivotal terrain. The $107,000–$111,000 range is the immediate battleground—above it, momentum buyers can press toward the mid-$110,000s. On-chain and microstructure data point to patient dip demand, but follow-through still hinges on flows. ETF flows remain the key short-term driver; when they stabilize, confidence follows. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum reclaimed $4,000, with majors broadly higher as Solana, XRP, BNB, ADA, and DOGE posted mid-single-digit gains. The bounce looks market-wide, not just a Bitcoin relief rally. One sign of improving confidence: stablecoin float expanded by an estimated $6 billion over the past week, suggesting capital is rotating from cash sidelines into accumulation. Leverage has normalized after the shakeout, and depth is improving, but liquidity remains selective. Stablecoin expansion signals fresh capital entering markets, but conviction remains conditional on Bitcoin’s next move. Macro & Institutional The White House’s softer tone on triple-digit China tariffs and renewed dialogue between U.S. and Chinese officials have lifted risk sentiment, while gold remains near record highs as a hedge against lingering policy uncertainty. Oil, meanwhile, stays heavy around $61, reflecting slowing demand and expectations of a 2026 supply glut. In Japan, the Financial Services Agency is considering reforms that would allow banks to hold and trade digital assets, and even register as cryptocurrency exchange operators. If enacted, the move would expand institutional access in one of Asia’s largest economies and further align banking infrastructure with the digital asset space. The institutional framework is gradually aligning with crypto—policy normalization is becoming participation, not resistance. Looking Ahead The government shutdown shows few signs of resolution, keeping visibility limited for policymakers and investors alike. Still, a handful of key data points remain on deck this week. Wednesday brings the EIA crude oil inventories and MBA mortgage applications, followed by Thursday’s jobless claims, natural gas inventories, and existing home sales. The main event arrives Friday, when delayed CPI, new home sales, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index could shape expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting on October 29. A dovish outcome—rate cut and continued balance-sheet flexibility—could reignite ETF inflows. Macro direction will set the tone, with liquidity, not sentiment, the deciding factor. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 17, 2025 Gold shines at record highs as crypto waits for its catalyst Crypto markets remained subdued as the total digital asset market cap fell to $3.52 trillion, returning to July levels amid thin liquidity and a broader pullback in risk assets. Bitcoin dropped below $105,000, and Ether hovered just above $3,700, as traders continued to de-risk in step with equities. The tone across markets is cautious but not capitulatory—flows set the pace, and the dollar holds the keys. Right now, both are signaling hesitation. Traditional assets reflected a similar mixed sentiment. Gold rallied past $4,340, marking its ninth consecutive weekly gain and underscoring a flight to safety, while oil slipped below $61 on easing geopolitical tensions. Equity futures traded lower again as U.S.–China trade headlines and the ongoing government shutdown deepened the risk-off mood. The stage is set for the FOMC meeting, which may prove the next major catalyst across all markets. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell to the low-$104,000s, its weakest level since August. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of over $500 million, while open interest in futures dropped to around $37 billion, reflecting a cooldown. On-chain, long-term holders continue to trim profits in a sign of rotation, while realized losses remain modest. The structure is orderly but drained of momentum. At these levels, demand is patient and price-sensitive. Cycle dynamics now favor patience. With the post-halving window narrowing, a rebound depends on renewed ETF inflows and a weaker dollar backdrop. Sustained closes below $100,000 could extend the correction over time, while a sequence of inflows and call-heavy positioning could reopen the path toward a “late marginal high.” Without inflows, time itself becomes the headwind. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum trades just above $3,700, down around 2%, while BNB, XRP, and SOL extended losses. Spot Ethereum ETFs also reported mild outflows of about $56 million, reflecting a modest cooling in investor appetite after two sessions of net inflows earlier this week. Altcoins are still digesting last week’s deleveraging wave, though leverage levels have normalized, suggesting markets are cleaner but cautious. With supply overhead and liquidity thin, any sustained BTC stability paired with dollar softness could trigger a swift rebound across majors. Macro & Institutional Broader macro trends continue to dictate crypto’s rhythm. The Dollar Index (DXY) eased 0.5% this week, while gold’s rally past $4,340 reaffirmed its role as a preferred safe haven. For now, if the dollar blinks, crypto breathes. The Fed’s expected dovish shift later this quarter remains the market’s main hope for a renewed liquidity tailwind. Lower real yields and a weaker dollar could reignite ETF inflows and spot demand, especially at current discounted valuations. Institutional momentum continues to build beneath the price action. Florida’s proposed bill would allow up to 10% of select state funds and pensions to invest in Bitcoin or digital-asset ETFs, reinforcing a steady policy trend. Meanwhile, Ripple’s $1 billion XRP treasury plan and its acquisition of GTreasury highlight ongoing infrastructure growth despite market weakness. Looking Ahead Market visibility is limited in the short term. Due to the government shutdown, key U.S. data releases—including CPI, consumer spending, and labor market statistics—have been delayed, leaving traders without a clear macro direction. With the usual indicators off the board, attention is now turning squarely toward the FOMC meeting on October 29, where updated guidance on rate cuts and liquidity conditions could shape the next major move across all asset classes. Until then, crypto is likely to trade in tight correlation with dollar trends and ETF flows. Crypto doesn’t need euphoria—it needs a catalyst. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 16, 2025 Gold leads the rally as digital assets hold their ground Safe-haven demand remained firm as gold climbed to new record highs and Bitcoin held steady after last week’s volatility. Both assets benefited from a cautious market tone, though gold’s momentum outpaced that of digital assets. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization hovered around $3.79 trillion, with ETF flows across the crypto sector remaining net positive despite a brief rotation. Rate-cut expectations continue to anchor sentiment, but trade tensions and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown are keeping risk appetite contained. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range between $107,000 and $117,000, consolidating above realized-cost support near $109,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $104 million in outflows yesterday following several sessions of inflows earlier in the week. Holding above $107,000 keeps the current structure intact, while a sustained move above $117,000 supported by renewed ETF inflows could reintroduce momentum toward $126,000. Derivatives positioning remains balanced: volatility is modestly elevated, funding rates are neutral, and leverage levels are moderate. The Department of Justice’s recent seizure of roughly 127,000 BTC, worth about $15 billion, in a major fraud case highlights Bitcoin’s expanding role in policy and institutional discussions. Whether the holdings are allocated to restitution or the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, the event underscores Bitcoin’s growing relevance within government frameworks. Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum is trading around $4,050, showing modest recovery after last week’s declines. Ethereum-based ETFs attracted about $169 million in inflows, offsetting Bitcoin’s outflows and keeping overall digital asset ETF flows positive. The rotation suggests investors are redistributing exposure within crypto rather than exiting the sector. On the network side, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, expected in December, aims to improve efficiency rather than throughput. It will raise Ethereum’s gas limit from 45 million to 60 million and introduce refinements to data validation, reducing costs for rollups. Macro & Institutional U.S. equity futures traded higher as investors balanced a steady earnings season with ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Semiconductor and banking stocks provided support, while a more measured tone from the Federal Reserve added to expectations for rate cuts later this year. Gold climbed above $4,250 per ounce on continued safe-haven demand, and oil prices firmed on signs of tightening supply. On the regulatory side, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins reaffirmed that crypto and tokenization are now top priorities for the agency, marking a shift toward more innovation-friendly oversight. Meanwhile, Volatility Shares filed to launch a suite of 5x leveraged ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The proposed products, intended for short-term traders, could modestly increase market volatility if approved. Looking Ahead The coming days bring a dense set of U.S. macro releases that could shape near-term sentiment, though the ongoing government shutdown may delay some key data – Thursday’s retail sales, producer prices, and labor indicators; and Friday’s housing, industrial production, and capital flow figures. Furthermore, there is now roughly a 50–50 chance that the government shutdown extends through the end of October, as negotiations between the White House and Congress remain stalled. Analysts estimate the closure could cost the U.S. economy up to $15 billion per week in lost output. Beyond the fiscal impact, prolonged data blackouts could complicate the Fed’s policy calibration, adding uncertainty to markets already balancing rate-cut expectations, trade friction, and shifting risk sentiment. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – October 15, 2025 Gold soars to records as Bitcoin finds its balance Markets entered midweek on steadier ground as gold extended its record-breaking rally and crypto assets regained composure after last week’s volatility. The broader backdrop is one of capital rotation rather than outright risk aversion, with investors balancing exposure between traditional and digital stores of value amid dovish central-bank signals and persistent trade uncertainty. Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,186 per ounce, marking its third consecutive record high and an eight-week winning streak that has lifted prices more than 55% year-to-date. The move reflects a combination of lower real yields, a softer dollar, and heightened geopolitical caution. Crypto markets, which were first to absorb the impact of last week’s macro headlines, are showing structural resilience. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together attracted $340 million in inflows on Tuesday, indicating that institutional investors are selectively reentering exposure following a sharp but orderly market reset. Gold may be stealing the headlines, but Bitcoin is quietly reaffirming its place, both beneficiaries of the same shift toward liquidity and quality. Bitcoin Bitcoin traded near $112,000, retracing part of its recent pullback as markets stabilized after the tariff-related volatility. While leverage unwinding weighed on sentiment earlier in the week, renewed institutional inflows and stable on-chain data suggest the adjustment phase may be passing. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $102 million in inflows on Tuesday, while MARA Holdings added 400 BTC during the dip, lifting its holdings to over 53,000 BTC worth more than $6 billion. Larger miners continue to manage liquidity conservatively, treating softer hashprice conditions as opportunities for accumulation rather than distress. Bitcoin’s recovery owes less to speculation and more to structure—a market learning to absorb shocks without losing confidence Ethereum and Altcoins Ethereum climbed back towards $4,100, supported by $236 million in spot ETF inflows as investors used the recent weakness as a dip-buying opportunity. Broader altcoins also steadied, with Solana recovering sharply from recent lows. The rebound was measured but points to improving liquidity conditions and a gradual rebuilding of confidence across major networks. Macro & Institutional Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed may soon conclude its balance-sheet runoff, signaling that the tightening cycle is nearing an end. The dovish tone pushed Treasury yields lower and supported a broad bid for liquidity-driven assets from gold to Bitcoin. With rate cuts already priced in for October and December, investors are rotating toward assets that balance yield scarcity with liquidity depth. Gold’s rally remains emblematic of that transition. The metal has advanced over 11% in the past month, fueled by falling real yields and renewed safe-haven demand. Every easing cycle crowns a safe haven—this time, gold holds the spotlight while Bitcoin quietly shares the stage. Looking Ahead The coming days bring a dense run of U.S. macro data that could guide near-term sentiment, though the ongoing government shutdown may delay some releases. Key indicators include Wednesday’s CPI, energy inventories, and manufacturing data; Thursday’s retail sales, PPI, and labor indicators; and Friday’s housing, production, and capital flow figures. Together, these will help shape expectations around growth, inflation, and the Fed’s next steps. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – October 10, 2025 Stability after the surge: Crypto pauses ahead of key macro data Crypto and traditional markets are parting ways as the week wraps up. The total crypto market cap has steadied at $4.14 trillion, with Bitcoin easing from record highs. On Wall Street, a lack of fresh data has left investors relying on sentiment, as the Fed turns to surveys instead of hard economic figures. The S&P 500’s slight pullback from weekly highs and gold’s slip just below $4,000 suggest a measured shift in risk appetite. Optimism around AI momentum and easing geopolitical tensions is tilting sentiment back toward risk assets. The standout story remains digital assets, which continue to define “risk” on their own terms—and outperform in the process. Bitcoin After racing to $126,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin eased near $121,000 as profit-taking and leveraged long liquidations tempered momentum. Yet beneath the surface, the structure remains strong. ETF inflows of nearly $5 billion this month, including another $197 million on Thursday, echo April’s institutional peak, while mid-tier holders between 10 and 1,000 BTC continue to accumulate, adding depth to the uptrend. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio’s rebound signals controlled profit-taking rather than exhaustion, consistent with a healthy bull phase. Implied volatility has climbed to a 2.5-month high, underscoring traders’ expectations for October turbulence—historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. With nearly all supply in profit and support clustered near $117,000, the setup looks like a pause, not a pivot. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum ETFs snapped their eight-day, $1.97 billion inflow streak, posting a small $8.5 million outflow. Still, trading volumes remain elevated, signaling active institutional participation. ETH holds near $4,340 within a healthy consolidation zone, its structure supported by moderate funding and stable options skews. Across the broader market, altcoins are mixed—Solana and Binance Coin slipped, while Cardano and Dogecoin eked gains. The takeaway: liquidity remains high, positioning balanced, and volatility the price of opportunity Macro & Institutional The Fed’s minutes confirmed internal debate over the pace of rate cuts, with New York Fed’s Williams hinting at more easing this year amid a cooling labor market. Yet, the lack of official data due to the shutdown clouds the path forward. The dollar firmed as gold retreated below $4,000 following a Middle East ceasefire, suggesting risk appetite is cautiously returning. Meanwhile, Luxembourg quietly made history, becoming the first Eurozone nation to allocate 1% of its $730 million sovereign wealth fund to Bitcoin ETFs. The move signals not just confidence in digital assets but a recognition that financial innovation is now a matter of national strategy. Looking Ahead Next week brings a packed macro lineup that could shape sentiment across both crypto and traditional markets—assuming the U.S. government shutdown ends and data releases resume. On Tuesday, investors will watch Germany’s CPI and remarks from Fed Chair Powell, which will set the stage for the ongoing inflation debate. Wednesday follows with the crucial U.S. CPI report, while Thursday delivers a heavy mix of retail sales, producer prices, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index—all key indicators of consumer demand and price momentum. The week wraps up on Friday with Eurozone CPI and a full set of U.S. labor data—including unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, and wage growth—a fitting finale that could reset market expectations for the Fed’s next move. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.