Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – January 27, 2026 Markets hold steady as policy signals take center stage Markets were steady but cautious on Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and a heavy slate of large-cap earnings. U.S. equity futures were mixed, with Nasdaq futures outperforming while the Dow hovered slightly lower, following four consecutive sessions of gains that have pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their highest levels in over a week. The broader macro backdrop remains uneven: equity strength contrasts with firm demand for defensive assets. Gold pushed back toward record highs above $5,100 per ounce, while silver has surged above $112 since the start of the week, underscoring sustained demand for non-sovereign assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Bitcoin Bitcoin trades above $88,500 and with other large-cap digital assets has been modestly firmer over the past 24 hours as markets position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. Chair Powell’s guidance remains the primary near-term catalyst, any signal toward eventual easing would be supportive for risk assets, while persistent inflation risks would reinforce caution. Importantly, recent price action has been orderly. ETF flows have also shown early signs of stabilization. After several consecutive days of outflows, the streak was broken on Monday with modest net inflows of $6.8 million, suggesting that institutional positioning may be beginning to steady at the margin. Taken together, these dynamics help explain why Bitcoin has stabilized despite the broader repricing of rate expectations. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum and major altcoins have broadly tracked Bitcoin’s consolidation, but sentiment toward higher-beta assets has improved modestly. After briefly turning negative earlier in the week, funding rates across several altcoins are now modestly positive, pointing to market stabilization. Open interest in assets such as Solana and XRP has edged higher, pointing to selective engagement. Importantly, leverage conditions across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP continue to normalize. January liquidations are estimated to be roughly 40–70% below Q4 averages and 70–80% below cycle peaks, indicating fewer forced unwind cascades. With leverage largely flushed from higher-beta assets, near-term forced-selling risk appears diminished. Macro & Institutional Macro conditions remain the primary driver across asset classes. Equity markets have absorbed recent political and trade developments with limited disruption, while fixed-income repricing following last week’s Japanese government bond selloff continues to influence global positioning. Despite equity gains, strength in precious metals and a softer U.S. dollar point to a more cautious allocation backdrop. On the policy front, progress on U.S. crypto market structure legislation has become less linear. Negotiations in the Senate Agriculture Committee have grown more complex after a revised draft moved forward without full bipartisan backing, though talks are ongoing ahead of a delayed markup later this week. Looking Ahead Attention now turns to a dense run of policy and sentiment indicators, anchored by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and FOMC statement on Wednesday. Midweek also brings the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, providing a useful comparison for how peers are balancing inflation risks against slowing growth. Beyond central banks, markets will watch U.S. jobless claims and Chicago PMI for signals on labor-market and manufacturing momentum, before turning to remarks from FOMC member Bowman late Friday. The week closes with January manufacturing PMI data, rounding out a sequence of releases that will help determine whether markets extend their current consolidation or begin to reassess the policy outlook into February. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – January 26, 2026 Crypto looks for balance as macro volatility repositions markets Crypto markets opened the week on a cautious footing as investors navigated a dense mix of political, policy, and macro signals. Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $87,000 level over the weekend before stabilizing near $87,500, while Ethereum traded just under $2,900, broadly tracking a softer tone across risk assets. The total crypto market cap has slipped just below $3 trillion, to around $2.96 trillion, reflecting consolidation rather than disorderly positioning. In traditional markets, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged modestly lower. In commodities, gold surged to fresh record highs above $5,100/oz, underscoring sustained demand for defensive assets amid elevated political and currency uncertainty, while silver pushed above $108 in the past 24 hours for a gain of over 8%, highlighting broad-based strength across precious metals. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s weekend volatility appears to have been driven more by macro and political developments than crypto-specific factors. Rising concern around a potential U.S. government shutdown, renewed tariff rhetoric toward Canada, and heightened foreign-exchange volatility weighed on broader risk sentiment. Despite briefly slipping below $87,000, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience given the scale of recent institutional outflows. Funding rates remain positive to neutral, futures positioning has not flipped decisively bearish, and spot-led price discovery continues to dominate. Notably, short-term holder profitability has begun to recover, with STH SOPR rebounding from recent lows toward break-even levels — a development that historically reduces incremental sell pressure. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum and major altcoins declined between 1–3% over the past 24 hours, broadly tracking Bitcoin’s move lower, but sentiment has stabilized into early week trading. Most large-cap tokens have retraced part of their weekend losses, and derivatives data points to selective positioning rather than broad capitulation. Open interest in assets such as Solana and XRP increased over the past day, indicating renewed trader engagement even as overall volumes remain moderate. This pattern reinforces the view that the market is transitioning from directional selling toward consolidation, with positioning resetting rather than re-risking. Macro & Institutional Macro dynamics remain the dominant influence. In the U.S., political risk has intensified, with prediction markets pricing a high probability of a partial government shutdown by month-end. While any shutdown is likely to be less disruptive than last year’s episode, the uncertainty has weighed on sentiment and contributed to dollar softness. In parallel, foreign-exchange volatility has risen sharply. Reports of “rate checks” by the Federal Reserve, alongside speculation of Japanese intervention as USD/JPY moved above 159, have fueled talk of coordinated action between U.S. and Japanese authorities. Gold’s continued rally reflects this backdrop, supported by both currency dynamics and persistent central-bank demand. Looking Ahead Attention now turns decisively to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and FOMC statement later this week. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, markets will focus on guidance around the timing and conditions for future easing, particularly as political risk and FX volatility complicate the policy backdrop. Ahead of the Fed, U.S. durable goods orders, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow update, and sentiment-oriented data will offer incremental color but are likely to remain secondary to policy signals. For crypto, near-term direction will hinge on whether ETF flows stabilize, volatility remains contained, and Bitcoin can hold recent support levels as macro clarity gradually improves. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – January 23, 2026 Crypto markets settle after a volatile week Crypto markets steadied toward the end of the week as investors navigated easing geopolitical tensions and a more balanced macro backdrop. Bitcoin hovered near $89,000, while Ethereum slipped just below $3,000, broadly lagging moves in traditional markets as conviction stayed limited. The tone was steadier across risk assets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures hovered slightly lower after recent gains, while European equities held firmer, with the DAX and CAC 40 building on midweek advances. In commodities, gold pushed to a fresh record near $5,000/oz, underscoring continued demand for policy hedges even as the immediate Greenland-driven tension faded. With geopolitical risks cooling but not fully resolved, attention has increasingly shifted back to central banks, earnings, and liquidity conditions. Bitcoin Bitcoin edged lower into the end of the week, extending a period of choppy consolidation rather than signaling renewed downside momentum. The asset has struggled to attract follow-through buying despite some relief in global risk sentiment, reflecting restrained positioning and muted retail participation. From a market-structure perspective, spot-led price discovery remains intact: leverage is contained, futures basis has stabilized near 3%, and funding rates are flat to slightly positive. Volatility has also cooled meaningfully, with implied BTC volatility settling back into the 37–40% range, close to its yearly average. Taken together, subdued leverage, stable spot participation, and normalized volatility suggest the recent adjustment has been absorbed rather than extended. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum and major altcoins showed modest stabilization over the past 24 hours, though weekly performance remains soft. ETH traded near $2,950, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano all posted mild gains as selling pressure eased. Activity across derivatives markets points to normalization rather than renewed risk-taking, with open interest steady and funding rates modest. The absence of a broad leverage rebuild across majors suggests positioning is resetting, not re-risking. Macro & Institutional The Bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates at 0.75% brought near-term stability after recent fiscal-driven volatility, but the accompanying guidance made clear that policy normalization is unfinished. While headline inflation has cooled, underlying pressures remain firm enough to keep the BoJ on a gradual tightening path. Importantly, spillovers from Japan’s earlier yield shock now appear to be fading, allowing markets to refocus on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and a dense earnings slate led by U.S. megacaps, where the durability of artificial intelligence-driven profitability remains the central test. Gold’s advance continues to draw institutional backing, with Goldman Sachs lifting its December 2026 forecast to $5,400/oz, citing sustained private-sector diversification reinforcing central-bank demand. In parallel, research from PwC highlights that institutional crypto adoption is becoming increasingly embedded in payments, settlement, and treasury operations, signaling a shift from experimentation toward operational integration rather than speculative use. Looking Ahead Markets now turn toward incoming U.S. PMI data, consumer sentiment readings, and next week’s FOMC decision, which is widely expected to leave rates unchanged but may shape expectations for the remainder of the year. Corporate earnings from major technology companies will be closely watched for signs that heavy investment in artificial intelligence is translating into durable profit growth. For crypto, the near-term outlook remains tied less to headlines and more to whether improving macro clarity and stable liquidity conditions can support a transition from consolidation toward a more durable base. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

A pivotal midweek stretch puts inflation, growth, and central bank signals back in focus – a window where volatility may resurface as markets recalibrate rate expectations, risk sentiment, and crypto positioning: 🇨🇭 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings – Jan 19-23 🇬🇧 U.K. CPI (YoY & MoM) (Dec) – Wed, Jan 21, 07:00 GMT 🇺🇸 U.S. President Trump Speaks – Wed, Jan 21, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) – Wed, Jan 21, 17:00 GMT 🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) – Thu, Jan 22, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Thu, Jan 22, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 PCE & Core PCE (YoY & MoM) (Nov) – Thu, Jan 22, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Thu, Jan 22, 17:00 GMT 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Fri, Jan 23, 03:00 GMT

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Daily Market Dispatch – January 7, 2026 Crypto markets consolidate as ETF flows diverge and macro tests loom The total crypto market capitalization remains stable around $3.16 trillion as markets eased mid-week after an early-January rebound. Bitcoin and major altcoins consolidated amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a heavy macro calendar, with price action across digital assets pointing toward consolidation rather than renewed distribution. Traditional markets reflected a similar tone. U.S. equity futures hovered near flat, oil prices softened as Venezuelan supply headlines eased near-term scarcity concerns, and gold pulled back from record highs as profit-taking emerged. Across asset classes, positioning remains cautious but disciplined, with capital waiting for clearer macro signals before re-engaging. Bitcoin Bitcoin drifted lower toward the low-$92,000s after failing to extend its early-year recovery, as geopolitical risk and an incoming wave of U.S. macro data capped upside momentum. Even so, price action remains orderly, with BTC holding within a well-defined range after much of the excess leverage from late 2025 was already cleared. ETF activity reinforced this consolidation dynamic. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded roughly $243 million in net outflows, reflecting profit-taking and exposure recalibration rather than a decisive risk-off move. The moderation in flows mirrors Bitcoin’s range-bound behavior, suggesting institutional investors are pausing to reassess positioning ahead of clearer signals from labor market data and the upcoming FOMC decision. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is up around 10% in January and is trading just above $3,200, bringing daily structure back into focus as investors assess whether recent gains can be sustained. Price has repeatedly defended its late-2025 demand zone but remains capped by the 200-day EMA. ETF flows have tilted in Ethereum’s favor. Spot ETH ETFs recorded approximately $114 million in net inflows, supporting its relative resilience and signaling continued institutional engagement even as Bitcoin flows softened. That selective rotation extended further down the curve. Solana ETFs attracted around $9 million in inflows, while XRP products saw roughly $19 million, reinforcing the view that demand remains active for specific narratives rather than broadly distributed across the market. XRP continued to stand out, supported by persistent institutional-style demand and tightening liquidity, while most other majors lagged. Macro & Institutional Macro conditions remain finely balanced. U.S. equity futures were subdued as markets looked past recent geopolitical shocks and toward labor data, services activity, and earnings for direction. Employment trends remain central to policy expectations, with the labor market continuing to dictate how much flexibility central banks retain. In commodities, oil prices eased as expectations of Venezuelan supply returning to global markets softened near-term risks, while gold pulled back after a sharp safe-haven rally. In Europe, euro-area inflation reached the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing the disinflation narrative without fully removing policy uncertainty. Looking Ahead Crypto markets now face a dense inflow of U.S. labor market data, with ADP employment and JOLTS job openings due Wednesday, initial jobless claims arriving Thursday, and a full slate of wage growth, payrolls, and unemployment data scheduled for Friday. These releases could prove pivotal for expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and the FOMC meeting at the end of January, shaping whether risk assets can re-engage or remain range-bound as the week closes. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – January 6, 2026 Crypto opens 2026 with a rebound as key U.S. labour data looms Crypto started 2026 on firmer footing, with the total crypto market cap rebounding to $3.22 trillion as early-year flows stabilised sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has exited fear and settled into neutral, suggesting risk appetite is recovering without tipping into excess. When sentiment improves before leverage rebuilds, markets tend to reprice in a more orderly, durable way. Early-year positioning is being reinforced by broad-based inflows across major crypto ETFs, signalling that risk appetite is returning through regulated channels rather than leverage or speculative tail risk. Bitcoin is holding near $93,000, with Ether around $3,200, as the recovery remains led by the most liquid assets. In traditional markets, the tone is constructive but selective: equities continue to digest recent record highs, energy and technology remain leadership pockets, while precious metals stay bid and copper trades at record levels, reflecting a blend of momentum and hedging. Bitcoin Bitcoin is steadying after its early-year bounce above $93,000, with near-term price action increasingly shaped by flows versus perceived supply overhangs. The market is showing early signs of stability as regulated demand rebuilds, even as participants remain sensitive to macro repricing and headline risk. The near-term test is whether steady institutional demand can anchor price action while treasury-related headlines remain secondary to flows and macro conditions. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum’s positioning is quietly improving beneath the surface. Ether is trading around $3,200, holding recent gains as on-chain signals point to easing sell-side pressure. The validator exit queue has fallen to zero, while the entry queue has climbed to ~1.3 million ETH, signalling renewed willingness among large holders to commit capital to staking rather than withdraw it. Altcoin leadership remains highly concentrated. XRP outperformed, pushing toward $2.4 on strong volume, reinforcing a broader structural trend visible through 2025: capital is consolidating into a narrow group of institutional-grade alt majors with liquidity, regulatory clarity, and scalable exposure. Macro & Institutional Across traditional markets, momentum remains supportive but nuanced. Asian equities extended gains into the new year, Europe followed higher, while U.S. futures softened modestly after recent record closes. From an institutional crypto perspective, ETF flows point to a coordinated re-risking rather than a single-asset trade. Bitcoin ETFs led with roughly $697 million in net inflows, followed by Ethereum with $168 million, while XRP and Solana ETFs added approximately $46 million and $16 million respectively. The significance lies less in any single figure and more in the breadth of participation, suggesting allocators are rebuilding diversified crypto exposure through liquid, regulated vehicles as 2026 begins. Commodities reflect a mix of momentum and caution. Gold remains near record highs, silver and copper are firm, and oil is volatile as markets assess geopolitical developments and potential supply implications. In FX, the dollar has stabilised after recent volatility, while the yen remains supported by expectations of further BOJ tightening. Looking Ahead Markets now turn their focus to a dense run of U.S. economic data through the week, starting with Services PMI on Tuesday, followed by ADP employment and JOLTS openings on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and culminating in average hourly earnings, the nonfarm payrolls report, and the unemployment rate on Friday. Together, these releases will shape expectations around labour-market resilience, wage pressures, and the Fed’s policy path, with signs of cooling likely to support risk appetite. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

A shortened holiday week, but not without momentum – key U.S. data releases will still set the tone across inflation, consumers, and housing: 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY, Oct) – Tue, Dec 23, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Oct) – Tue, Dec 23, 13:30 GMT 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) – Tue, Dec 23, 15:00 GMT 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep–Nov; MoM & headline) – Tue, Dec 23, from 20:00 GMT 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Wed, Dec 24, 13:30 GMT

Daily Market Dispatch – December 19, 2025 Crypto awaits a catalyst as soft CPI meets a BoJ hike Bitcoin is hovering around $88,000 as the market grinds through another slow session, with the total crypto market cap holding steady around $2.97 trillion. Price action remains orderly but indecisive – a market waiting for permission to move, as traders look for clearer macro signals. Yesterday’s U.S. inflation data added a fresh layer: headline CPI cooled to 2.7% and core to 2.6%, softer than expected but muddied by shutdown-related gaps that limit clean interpretation. Traditional assets are firmer after the print, though major indices remain on track for weekly losses. Globally, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75%, its highest level since 1995, weakening the yen and reinforcing a backdrop where policy divergence, not direction, is defining year-end market dynamics. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading slightly higher on the day but remains confined to the high $80,000s, extending a week marked by tight ranges and declining volumes. The asset’s repeated failure to reclaim $90,000 underscores a consolidation phase rather than a trend break, amplified by late-December liquidity that leaves prices sensitive to small flows. U.S. spot ETFs saw $167 million in outflows, reinforcing the cautious tone. The softer CPI print has nudged expectations toward further Federal Reserve easing after last week’s move to 3.50%–3.75%, but with the data distorted by shutdown-related gaps, markets are treating it as a directional clue rather than a decisive signal. For now, Bitcoin trades like a patient asset. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is slightly outperforming near $2,900, though most majors remain muted. ETF flows highlight a shift beneath the surface: $96 million in outflows from Ethereum products, countered by $30 million of inflows to XRP and $13 million into Solana – a pattern that suggests rotation rather than de-risking across leading exchange-traded products. Altcoins are tracking Bitcoin’s drift, with XRP flat, Solana quiet, and Polygon slipping modestly. Ethereum’s development cycle continues to mature. Developers formalized “Glamsterdam” and “Hegota” as the network’s two upgrades for 2026, cementing a predictable twice-yearly cadence. Macro & Institutional The November CPI report cooled more than expected – 2.7% headline and 2.6% core, but the print remains structurally incomplete due to missing October data. Inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the labor market is softening, and the Committee is divided after last week’s rate cut. Globally, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75%, its highest level since 1995 and the second hike this year. In Europe, the European Central Bank held rates at 2%, the Bank of England’s cut was closer-run than expected, and European Union leaders approved a major jointly financed aid package for Ukraine. Institutionally, regulatory direction continues to shift. Michael Selig’s confirmation as the next chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission places a crypto-native policymaker at the center of derivatives and spot-market oversight just as Congress debates expanding the agency’s authority. Looking Ahead The market now enters the quiet stretch of the Christmas holidays, when thinner liquidity often suppresses volatility but can magnify any surprises. Next week’s calendar is lighter, with United Kingdom third-quarter GDP and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence report offering the clearest read on how resilient demand remains into year-end. If confidence and growth indicators hold up while inflation continues to cool, early-2026 rate expectations could harden into a broader risk-on shift; if not, crypto’s narrow ranges may prove to be the market’s path of least resistance into year-end. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – December 18, 2025 Bitcoin holds firm as softer U.S. CPI sets the macro tone Global markets are cautiously firmer ahead of today’s U.S. CPI release, with equity futures supported by a constructive update from Micron that helped ease last week’s tech softness. Investors are watching the inflation print largely to refine expectations for the Fed’s early-2026 policy path rather than reassess the broader macro outlook, which remains stable. Crypto mirrors this tone, with Bitcoin continuing to trade within its established range, and the total crypto market cap remains steady around $2.96 trillion, indicating measured positioning rather than reactive shifts. With central bank meetings in Europe and a closely watched Bank of Japan decision approaching, sentiment across assets remains selective and poised for clearer policy signals. Bitcoin Bitcoin trades near $88,000 after a week of quick but contained swings. Recent moves continue to reflect thin liquidity and options-related flows rather than a shift in underlying demand. Structural resistance between $93,000–$120,000 remains the key upper range, while the True Market Mean near $81,300 continues to anchor the downside. ETF activity offered an encouraging signal this week, with $457 million of inflows – the strongest since early November, pointing to renewed interest from longer-term allocators. Futures positioning is also stabilizing: Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed back to roughly $30 billion, last seen during April’s market pullback, reflecting lower leverage but sustained engagement. Overall, the structure still favors consolidation, with macro developments likely to dictate the next move. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum eased toward the $2,900 level, reflecting the same patient tone seen across the broader crypto complex. Short-dated options still carry a modest caution premium, but medium-term skew has normalized – a healthier setup heading into 2026. Altcoins followed a similarly measured pattern. XRP and Solana posted modest ETF inflows – $18 million and $10 million, respectively, underscoring persistent institutional interest even as activity cools into year-end. Macro & Institutional Today’s CPI report delivered a notable downside surprise: headline inflation rose 2.7% YoY in November, below expectations for 3.1% and down from September’s 3.0% reading. Core CPI came in at 2.6%, also softer than forecast. The trend remains above the Fed’s desired ~2% level, keeping attention on the central bank’s policy path. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps last week to 3.5%–3.75%, its lowest range since 2022, though internal divisions remain pronounced, with three formal dissents and several members signaling reservations. The softer CPI adds nuance rather than clarity to the early-2026 outlook, especially as the labor market continues to gradually weaken. Internationally, policy divergence remains a driver of sentiment. The Bank of Japan continues to weigh a potential rate increase as yen dynamics evolve, while European central banks lean toward maintaining current settings. Across institutional surveys, concerns about stretched AI-related valuations remain the most cited risk for 2026, even as recession expectations continue to moderate. Looking Ahead With next week marking the start of the Christmas holidays, the global data calendar naturally thins, leaving only a handful of notable releases such as the U.K.’s final Q3 GDP print and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report. Trading conditions are likely to remain orderly into year-end as investors assess today’s softer CPI release and await fuller clarity in January. The tone across assets suggests quiet positioning rather than disengagement as markets look toward how early-2026 policy signals may set the stage for the next move. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – December 17, 2025 BTC holds its range on evolving macro conditions evolve and ETF outflows Crypto markets open slightly softer, with total capitalization now just above the $3 trillion mark at $3.04 trillion, while Bitcoin holds a narrow range and is trading toward $90,000 ahead of key macro events. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, Asia is firmer on a mild tech rebound, and safe havens remain strong, with gold nearing record highs and silver already setting new ones. Oil is off multi-year lows after the U.S. moved to block sanctioned Venezuelan tankers. Macro sentiment is anchored by a cooling but still resilient U.S. labor market. November payrolls came in stronger than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high. Softer purchasing managers indices and flat retail sales reinforce expectations for measured easing rather than aggressive cuts. With CPI due Thursday and Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaking today, markets enter a data-heavy window that could set year-end direction. Bitcoin Bitcoin trades near $90,000 as ETF outflows continue to moderate momentum. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $277 million in redemptions yesterday, keeping flows negative and volatility compressed. Onchain dynamics point to a broader structural transition. Roughly 1.6 million previously dormant Bitcoin have reactivated since 2024, with nearly $300 billion in year-old supply revived this year alone. With close to one fifth of total supply having rotated over two years, long-term distribution appears to be nearing saturation just as institutional access expands. That shifts the medium-term balance toward demand-driven price formation. Near-term direction now hinges on macro signals. CPI and Waller’s commentary will determine whether consolidation persists or gives way to a more directional move. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum remains subdued but now trades above $3,000 after $224 million in ETF outflows. Liquidity across majors remains thin, with price action still tied closely to macro sentiment. Selective inflows provide some contrast: XRP ETFs added $8 million, and Solana ETFs saw $3 million in inflows. Still, majors like Solana, Cardano, and Polygon remain range-bound. A clearer macro tone and easing supply pressure in Bitcoin would open the door for rotation into higher-liquidity altcoins into quarter-end. Macro & Institutional U.S. data continue to signal gradual cooling. Payrolls rose 64,000, unemployment reached 4.6%, PMIs softened, and retail sales were flat. Markets now price a deeper easing cycle than the Fed’s own projections, which puts added importance on Waller’s remarks ahead of Thursday’s inflation release. Gold and silver remain well supported, reflecting both macro uncertainty and expectations for further easing. Oil has bounced above $60 Brent after the Venezuelan tanker blockade, though the medium-term outlook still points to potential surplus in 2026. Fed leadership is now part of the market narrative. President Trump is set to interview Governor Waller as a potential successor to Chair Powell. Waller’s openness to stablecoins and DeFi, alongside his role in advocating rate cuts, makes his candidacy notable. Institutionally, crypto integration continues to accelerate. Nearly 60% of the largest U.S. banks are now working on Bitcoin custody, trading, or advisory services, using regulated white-label infrastructure. As long-term distribution fades and institutional rails deepen, crypto price formation is increasingly shifting toward traditional financial channels. Looking Ahead Markets now turn to a concentrated slate of catalysts: U.S. CPI and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate decision on Friday. With crypto still digesting ETF outflows but structural supply pressure easing, clearer macro visibility could shift risk assets – and especially Bitcoin – from a defensive stance toward selective risk-taking into year-end.

Announcing a landmark crypto partnership with Tennis Australia for Australian Open and Summer of Tennis Nexo has entered a multi-year global partnership with Tennis Australia, becoming the first Official Crypto Partner of the Australian Open and the Summer of Tennis. This marks the first time a digital asset company has partnered with any Grand Slam tournament – a milestone that marks a new chapter for the sport and our industry. The collaboration extends our presence in the Coaches Pod at the Australian Open, a focal point for strategy and courtside decision-making across the tournament’s major arenas. It’s a significant step in our global expansion in elite sport and builds on a breakthrough year across tennis and golf. Full announcement here: Nexo announces landmark crypto partnership with Tennis Australia for Australian Open and Summer of Tennis

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