Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – April 24, 2026 Bitcoin tests $78,000 as geopolitical uncertainty and central bank decisions loom Bitcoin is holding above $78,000 to close out a fourth consecutive week of gains, even as the macro backdrop grows more challenging. Brent crude has climbed above $106 and equity futures are mixed. Gold is heading for a weekly decline, slipping to around $4,692 as rising oil fans inflation fears and keeps rate cut expectations at bay. President Trump has stated he is in no rush to reach a permanent deal with Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz shows few signs of near-term resolution. The week ends with more questions than answers, but the institutional bid underneath Bitcoin has remained largely intact. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $78,500, as it remains on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. The $80,100 level is the immediate technical test — Glassnode identifies it as the threshold where recent buyers return to profit and where rallies have historically stalled. Breaking above it cleanly would shift the conversation from recovery to resumption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have extended their positive streak to eight consecutive days, drawing over $2 billion in net inflows between April 6 and April 22, on top of $1.32 billion in March that reversed a four-month outflow streak. Thursday alone saw $223.2 million in inflows. Cumulative net inflows across Bitcoin ETFs have now surpassed $58 billion, with total assets hovering around $100 billion — a scale of institutional participation that has no precedent in Bitcoin's history. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins are trading cautiously in a range-bound session. Ethereum trades around $2,300, XRP edged up to $1.43 and Solana eased to $86. Ethereum ETFs snapped their 10-day positive inflow streak on Thursday, posting $76 million in net outflows, a development worth monitoring given the broader rotation dynamic underway. A sustained altcoin recovery would likely require Bitcoin to clear $80,100 convincingly and geopolitical visibility to improve. Macro & Institutional Oil is the dominant macro story to close the week. Brent is up 1.7% to around $106.88 and WTI near $97.21, both on track for their largest weekly gain since early March. The Strait of Hormuz closure is now entering its third month with few signs of near-term relief. A three-week Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension was announced Thursday, though Hezbollah representatives were absent from the talks, limiting its market impact. Equity futures are mixed. The Nasdaq is outperforming on the back of strong AI-related earnings. European stocks are slipping 0.4% and the dollar is firming on haven demand. Gold is heading for a weekly loss of around 3%, pressured by the higher-for-longer rate narrative that elevated oil continues to feed. A JPMorgan report published Wednesday adds a quieter but relevant data point. Analysts identified security vulnerabilities and stagnant growth as the primary obstacles to large-scale institutional adoption of DeFi. During periods of stress, capital has rotated toward stablecoins, they say, citing deeper liquidity and faster off-ramps on centralized platforms. Looking Ahead Next week is one of the heaviest on the macro calendar this year. Tuesday brings the Bank of Japan's rate decision alongside U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for April. Wednesday is the main event: the Fed's rate decision and FOMC statement, followed by the press conference, with the Bank of Canada also deciding on the same day. Thursday delivers a simultaneous read from the Bank of England and ECB, Eurozone CPI and unemployment, U.S. Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago PMI. Five central banks in three days, against a backdrop of oil above $100 and inflation expectations drifting higher. The macro picture can shift materially in either direction before next Friday. – Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 23, 2026 Bitcoin consolidates below $78,000 as oil climbs and peace talks stall Bitcoin is consolidating above $78,000 as the post-ceasefire relief rally runs into harder reality. The broader crypto market cap sits at $2.58 trillion, just below Wednesday's recovery highs. Oil is back above $103 and equity futures are pointing 0.4–0.6% lower this morning as Iran's renewed aggression in the Strait of Hormuz offsets the goodwill from Trump's ceasefire extension. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,137 on Wednesday, though futures are pulling back this morning as the geopolitical picture darkens again. In the background, more than 100 established crypto exchanges and intermediaries signed a letter urging the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act this week, a sign that formal oversight is where the mature part of the industry wants to go. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $78,166, up a modest 0.2% over the past 24 hours, after briefly touching $79,388, its strongest level since early February, before pulling back. Bitcoin's outperformance relative to the broader complex is notable: up 4% on the week while most majors are flat or lower. Negative funding rates alongside rising prices point to spot-led buying or short covering rather than leveraged speculation, a more constructive market structure than the headline move might suggest. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index has flipped to a neutral 50 for the first time since Bitcoin peaked above $126,000. This typically marks a transitional phase rather than a confirmed trend. A neutral reading at 50 has historically preceded transitional periods. A slide below $76,000 would suggest the $79,388 high marked the top of this leg. Spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their week-long positive streak with $85 million in inflows on Wednesday, suggesting institutional demand is building rather than fading. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins are trading cautiously as risk appetite remains subdued. Ethereum slipped 1.7% to around $2,350, XRP fell 2.3% to $1.42, Solana and Polygon each declined around 2%, and Cardano shed 3%. Dogecoin dipped 1.5%. The divergence between Bitcoin and the rest of the complex continues to widen. When a rally concentrates in one asset while others trade sideways, it tends to reflect a more selective bid rather than broad market conviction. Ethereum ETFs are on a 10-day positive inflow streak, adding $43 million on Wednesday alone, a bright spot beneath the surface price weakness. Macro & Institutional The ceasefire extension has brought a pause in hostilities, though the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Brent crude is back above $103 and WTI near $94.83. The longer the Strait remains effectively closed, the more markets may be forced to treat supply disruption as a structural condition rather than a temporary risk premium, a repricing that oil's return above $103 has already begun to reflect. U.S. equity futures are pointing lower despite Wednesday's record close, with nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies beating first-quarter expectations providing a floor. The earnings tailwind is increasingly competing with the oil ceiling. A Reuters poll this week found investors expect the Fed to wait at least six months before cutting rates, with the dollar strengthening on haven demand and hitting its strongest level since April 10. Looking Ahead Today's initial jobless claims are the lead data point, the first read on whether the energy shock is feeding through into labor market softness, followed by S&P Global flash PMIs for manufacturing and services, offering the clearest picture yet of how companies are absorbing the war's cost pressure. Japan CPI prints overnight. Friday brings the Michigan Consumer Sentiment final, with the 1-year inflation expectations component the number to watch ahead of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. – Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 22, 2026 Bitcoin tests $78,000 on ceasefire extension Bitcoin pushed toward $78,000 in early Wednesday trading after President Trump announced an indefinite extension to the ceasefire with Iran. The broader crypto market cap reached $2.62 trillion, recovering toward pre-war levels after a timid start to April. Equity futures are pointing 0.6–0.8% higher across the board. Gold is ticking up to around $4,751, supported by a weaker dollar, which has retreated to pre-war levels as the March safe-haven spike unwinds, while Brent crude is holding just below $100. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading above $78,000, up 3% over the past 24 hours and on track for its third consecutive day of gains. The move above the $75,000–$76,000 range that had capped the prior two weeks was partly mechanical — short positions built up over weeks were forcibly liquidated as price crossed that level, a dynamic that amplifies but cannot sustain a rally without underlying spot demand to follow. Spot volumes reinforce that caution, monthly activity is running below recent historical averages and cumulative spot delta has yet to turn decisively positive, consistent with price advancing faster than broad spot participation. K33 Research flagged that funding rates turned deeply negative even as prices rose, with open interest trending higher — a configuration that cuts both ways, increasing the potential for further short squeezes but also leaving the market exposed to a sharp reversal if geopolitical sentiment deteriorates. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive day of net inflows on April 21, though the aggregate of $11.83 million was the smallest daily figure of the streak. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is up 3.2% to around $2,391, with the broader market gaining approximately 2.3% over the past 24 hours. XRP advanced 1.3% to $1.46, again testing the $1.45 level that has rejected multiple rallies this year — a ceiling the token has approached but not convincingly cleared. Solana, Cardano, and Polygon each added around 2.5%, while Dogecoin gained 2.3%. The altcoin complex is participating in the move, though gains remain measured relative to Bitcoin — consistent with a market re-risking cautiously rather than rotating aggressively into higher-beta names. Macro & Institutional Markets are cautiously optimistic but not convinced. The ceasefire extension lifted futures, but oil near $100 and a 4.4 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories — more than four times the expected figure, signal that the supply shock is far from resolved. The dollar index has retreated to pre-war levels, unwinding the March safe-haven spike and providing a modest tailwind for gold, which is ticking up to around $4,751. March retail sales rose 1.4% compared to February, though the headline flatters: the bulk of the gain came from gas station sales inflated by war-driven fuel prices, not broad consumer strength. The Warsh hearing produced no market-moving surprises. UBS maintained its call for 50 basis points of additional cuts by year-end, citing cooling core inflation and softening labor data. Looking Ahead The ceasefire extension buys time but resolves nothing structurally. Iran has not formally accepted the terms, the blockade continues, and Hormuz remains functionally closed. For Bitcoin, the immediate test is whether institutional spot demand is sufficient to absorb supply once the mechanical squeeze exhausts itself, and whether the $78,000–$83,000 range can hold on that basis alone. Thursday's initial jobless claims are the lead data point — the first read on whether the energy shock is feeding into labor market softness, followed by flash PMIs and Japan CPI overnight. Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment final closes the week, with the 1-year inflation expectations component the number to watch ahead of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. – Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 21, 2026 Bitcoin climbs above $76,000 as institutional demand and ceasefire hopes drive momentum Crypto is starting the week with momentum. Bitcoin has climbed above $76,000, up 1.6% on the day, with total crypto market cap edging above $2.58 trillion as improving risk sentiment and steady institutional inflows provide a constructive backdrop. US equity futures are edging up 0.2%–0.3%, oil is pulling back toward $95, and gold is holding near $4,783. The ceasefire deadline arrives this week — Trump announced the two-week pause on April 7, with expiry expected around Wednesday evening ET, making the outcome of US-Iran talks in Pakistan the dominant macro variable for the days ahead. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading above $76,000, building on last week's strongest weekly performance since the conflict began. The key resistance levels are $75,500–$75,600; a clean break above them opens the path toward $80,000, Bitcoin's prior consolidation zone from early 2026. Below, $73,500 is the near-term support. Technical momentum is building — the bull/bear power indicator is in buy territory and the Commodity channel index is approaching the 100 threshold, signalling strengthening upward conviction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $996 million in weekly inflows last week — the strongest week since early January, with Friday alone accounting for $663 million. The momentum has carried into this week, with Monday already recording $238 million in inflows. Institutional buyers are returning to Bitcoin with conviction, not caution. Year-to-date ETF flows have now turned positive, and whale accumulation during dips has continued to provide structural support through the ceasefire volatility. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum rose 0.7% to around $2,314, with XRP up 1.5% and Solana gaining 1%. Bitmine — the world's largest public holder of ETH, added 101,627 ETH, its largest single purchase since December, bringing total holdings to 4.98 million ETH. The company's long-term target remains 5% of total supply, and its continued accumulation at scale underlines that institutional conviction in Ethereum as a treasury asset is deepening. Macro & Institutional Oil is pulling back toward $95 as mixed signals on US-Iran talks keep markets oscillating. Hormuz remains effectively closed — Iran reopened the strait briefly on Friday before shutting it again following the US seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. An extension of the ceasefire this week opens the door to further oil price declines and a broad risk-on continuation. Gold at $4,783 is edging lower on a firmer dollar. The Warsh confirmation hearing today is the domestic macro event to watch — his prepared remarks emphasise Fed independence, but markets will parse every word for signals on the rates path, given his track record is less dovish than some expected. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,600, lifting its 2026 EPS estimate to $330 for 22% year-on-year growth. Amazon simultaneously announced a $5 billion immediate investment in Anthropic with Anthropic committing $100 billion to AWS over the next decade. AI capex is forecast to rise 58% year-on-year to $775 billion by year-end. The AI infrastructure trade is accelerating, not slowing and crypto is positioned to benefit as the natural companion to the digital economy buildout. Looking Ahead The ceasefire deadline Wednesday evening is the week's defining event for oil, rates, and risk assets. Fed Governor Waller speaks Tuesday, followed by UK CPI Wednesday — the first major inflation read of the week. Thursday is the busiest data day: US initial jobless claims, S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, and Japan CPI all land together. Friday closes with Michigan Consumer Sentiment. For crypto, the path to $80,000 is open; whether it is taken this week depends as much on Islamabad as on the data. - Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Today marks the final day before the FOMC blackout period begins at midnight. Fed officials Daly, Barkin, and Waller speak, their last opportunity to signal any shift in the rate outlook before the Committee goes silent ahead of the April 28–29 meeting. The IMF Spring Meetings continue in Washington, with potential signals on global growth and trade fragmentation. Next week's flash PMIs and preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment are the first April reads on whether tariff and geopolitical uncertainty is hitting real activity. The Michigan 1-year inflation expectations component is the one to watch. Consensus has jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%, the de-anchoring dynamic the Fed most wants to avoid. — Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 17, 2026 Bitcoin holds its gains ahead of pivotal weekend Bitcoin is trading near $75,000, up around 5% on the week even as the global equity rally pauses ahead of a pivotal weekend. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire with investors watching whether negotiations extend or collapse. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at fresh all-time highs on Thursday before U.S. futures turned flat in Asian hours. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98 after President Trump said prospects for a permanent ceasefire were looking very good — claims Iran has not confirmed. Gold held near $4,793, around 9% below its level at the onset of the conflict in late February. The U.S. 10-year yield rose for a second consecutive session to 4.317% and the dollar index sits at 98.24, near its lowest since early March. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading near $75,000, holding the bulk of this week's gains as risk appetite stabilizes ahead of the weekend. Perpetual funding rates hover near neutral levels on aggregate, a sign that the market lacks clear direction. Institutional positioning remains constructive. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $26.1 million in net inflows on April 16, the third consecutive day of positive flows. BlackRock's IBIT led with $81.7 million in daily inflows while Fidelity's FBTC saw $36 million in outflows. Total Bitcoin spot ETF AUM stands at $97.9 billion, representing 6.5% of total Bitcoin market cap. Glassnode on-chain data confirms the cautious read. Around 5.5 million BTC — 27% of circulating supply — was acquired between April 2025 and January 2026 at average prices between $92,000 and $107,000, leaving those holders with an estimated $134 billion in combined unrealized losses. Against that overhang, coins held for two years or more represent 64% of supply with no pressure to sell. The market is caught between a distressed cohort above and patient long-term holders below. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether hovers above $2,300, up more than 7.2% on the week, extending the outperformance that emerged earlier this week. XRP held $1.43 with a 7.5% weekly gain, SOL added 6.6% to $88. Similar to Bitcoin, institutional positioning across the altcoin complex is stabilizing. Ethereum spot ETFs posted $18 million in net inflows on April 16, the sixth consecutive day of positive flows, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $30.5 million. XRP spot ETFs added $11.9 million and Solana ETFs recorded $15.5 million, with BSOL the sole Solana vehicle seeing activity. Total ETH ETF AUM stands at $13.7 billion. Derivatives positioning continues to reflect a preference for protection over aggressive upside exposure, consistent with a market that is risk-aware rather than risk-off. Any sustained altcoin rebound likely requires a clearer read on the ceasefire outcome over the weekend. Macro & Institutional The equity rally is pricing in a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict that the underlying data does not yet support, and the gap between market positioning and macro reality is the primary risk to watch. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The IEA has warned European airlines have roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves. The IMF cautioned this week that economic damage continues to be underestimated and that global public debt is on track to reach 100% of world GDP by 2029 — a threshold that historically constrains central bank independence and narrows the policy space available to respond to a growth shock. Each of these data points represents a tail risk that equities have largely set aside. If the ceasefire fails to extend, the conflict premium that has been unwound over the past two weeks would need to be repriced rapidly across oil, rates, and risk assets simultaneously. Looking Ahead

Wednesday closes with the Fed Beige Book. Published eight times a year, it compiles anecdotal evidence from all twelve Fed districts and feeds directly into FOMC deliberations. Business uncertainty, hiring, and price-setting are the signals to watch, though partisan sentiment increasingly clouds the read. Fed Governors Barr and Bowman speak at 15:30 and 20:45 ET in their final appearances before the Fed’s blackout period begins Saturday. Thursday brings the last hard read before the April 28–29 FOMC meeting: Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Industrial Production all print at 08:30–09:15 ET. — Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 15, 2026 Crypto holds its gains as markets await resolution Despite a slight pullback over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is holding its Monday gains above $74,000. Risk assets continue to be lifted by ceasefire optimism and with yesterday's softer-than-expected PPI adding fuel, the data suggests the energy shock is being absorbed rather than amplified. The S&P 500 closed less than 1% below its all-time high, with better-than-expected earnings providing further support. However, the backdrop remains fragile. The ceasefire expires April 21, a second round of talks has yet to be scheduled, and the Fed is not moving before September. The rally has no monetary policy cushion if talks break down. Bitcoin BTC closed Tuesday at $74,171, up 10.6% since the Iran war began on February 28. Unlike most risk assets, it did not fall materially when the conflict started and has continued to grind higher through the recovery. Spot volume reached $8.7 billion and $9.6 billion on April 13 and 14, respectively, back to January averages and above March's $7.6 billion daily mean, supporting the price move. Perpetual open interest has risen from war lows of approximately $25 billion to $33.9 billion on April 14. Funding turned negative as open interest rose, suggesting shorts are being opened into the price rise, but the rate has recovered from a low of -0.018% per 8-hour period on Tuesday to -0.004% early Wednesday, remaining moderate. This suggests that short positioning lacks conviction. While investors are skeptical of the rally they do not aggressively bet against it. Ethereum & Altcoins ETH reached an intraday high of $2,392 on Tuesday before closing at $2,323, with price pulling back further to $2,317 early Wednesday. Volume recovered from multi-month lows to March levels, but remains below February's war-driven peak, suggesting the recovery is real but not yet structural re-engagement. The cumulative spot volume delta reinforces the same read. February saw approximately 783,000 ETH of net selling pressure accumulate, March reversed 124,000 of that, and April has recovered a further 119,000, around 15% of February's selling wave. Selling pressure is easing and gradually reversing, though February's selling wave remains largely intact. ETH spot ETFs offer a constructive signal with four consecutive days of net inflows through April 14 totaling approximately $213 million, the first sustained accumulation in over a month. Overall, ETH's 7-day BTC correlation sits at 0.887, up modestly from 0.873 at the start of the year. SOL and XRP show a more pronounced shift , from 0.77 and 0.79 in January to 0.85 and 0.84 now, reflecting a broad increase in macro dependence. Macro & Institutional Risk assets have recovered to pre-war levels, with the S&P 500 closing Tuesday at 6,967, less than 1% below its all-time high. Two forces are driving the move: ceasefire optimism and an earnings season that has opened above expectations. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both beat Q1 estimates on record trading revenue, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting today before the bell. Tuesday's PPI added to the relief. The Producer Price Index measures prices received by producers at the point of final sale; March came in at 0.5% against a consensus of 1.1%, suggesting producers absorbed most of the war-driven energy shock rather than passing it through broadly. Services were flat and core ex-food/energy rose just 0.1%. However, specific PPI components that feed directly into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge remained firm, and Bank of America estimates March PCE will still accelerate to 3.1% headline and 3.5% core annually. That will keep the Fed on hold, with markets pricing a single cut this year, no earlier than September. Treasury yields remain 35–40 basis points above pre-war levels suggesting the risk asset recovery remains exposed to Middle East headline risk. Looking Ahead

Daily Market Dispatch – April 14, 2026 Investors are buying the de-escalation trade Risk sentiment has improved markedly. Markets are reading President Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade as a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine escalation — a move to cut off Iranian oil revenues and force a return to the table, not a prelude to conflict. Bitcoin broke above $74,000, ETH is nearing $2,400, and the total crypto market cap is up nearly 5% over the past 24 hours to $2.5 trillion. U.S. equities have fully recovered their war-driven losses and oil is back below $100 after spiking above $105 on Monday. Gold, however, is still 10% below its end-February close. Investors are rotating out of safe havens and into risk assets, positioning for a resolution before it is confirmed. Bitcoin Bitcoin has cleared $74,000, the resistance level that held for six weeks, supported by two converging tailwinds. Iran war fears are easing at the margin as President Trump's comments show willingness to negotiate, and the Bank of Japan is signaling no rate hike at its April 28 meeting, keeping the yen carry trade intact. Whether the rally holds depends on ceasefire progress. The ETF picture is nuanced. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $291 million in net outflows on April 13, led by $229 million from Fidelity's FBTC. BlackRock's IBIT was the standout exception with $34.7 million in inflows and cumulative IBIT inflows now stand at $63.8 billion. Bitcoin is absorbing the outflows without breaking. Glassnode data shows that spot volume delta — the difference between buy and sell pressure — has flipped positive in April for the first time in 2026. After averaging -$199 million per day in February, the heaviest sell month of the year, it now runs at +$38 million, with eight of thirteen April trading days closing with net buying. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether is outpacing Bitcoin for the first time in months, up around 13.2% over 24 hours versus Bitcoin's 8.6%. The outperformance is backed by institutional flows. Ethereum ETFs recorded $9.4 million in net inflows on April 13, with BlackRock's staked ETH product ETHB leading at $5.8 million. Weekly ETH ETF inflows of $187 million for the period ending April 10 were the strongest of 2026 and a sharp reversal from three straight weeks of outflows. Cumulative ETH ETF inflows have reached a record $11.68 billion. Macro & Institutional US PPI for March prints today and it will be the first hard read on how the oil shock is feeding into producer prices. Bond yields remain elevated even as equities have nearly recovered to pre-war levels, an inconsistency ING's rates team flags: higher energy costs and tighter monetary policy should in theory weigh on equities, but momentum is winning. On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act is advancing quietly. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt told CoinDesk this week that the stablecoin yield compromise reached in March is holding and that several other outstanding issues have been resolved in parallel. The Senate Banking Committee markup remains targeted for late April. Looking Ahead Today brings a full slate of Fed speakers and BoE Governor Bailey in New York. Investors attention then turns to Thursday, the most concentrated event day of the quarter. The SEC hosts a public roundtable on digital asset market structure — a signal of regulatory direction ahead of the CLARITY Act Senate markup targeted for late April. China Q1 GDP, EU CPI final, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and initial jobless claims all land the same day. — Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst. For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 9, 2026 Bitcoin holds above $70,000 amid ceasefire uncertainty as inflation data looms for directional clues Wednesday's relief rally is cooling on Thursday as the ceasefire shows early signs of strain. Bitcoin has pulled back to around $70,800, down 1.2% on the day, with total crypto market cap retreating modestly from Wednesday's highs above $2.4 trillion. Equity futures are down 0.3%–0.4%, oil has rebounded toward $97, and gold is holding near $4,730. Today's triple data release — Core PCE, Q4 GDP, and initial jobless claims, is the week's most important macro event, landing into a market still calibrating the distance between a two-week truce and a durable resolution. Bitcoin Bitcoin is holding above $70,000 — a level it struggled to sustain for most of the past six weeks. The pullback from Wednesday's $72,700 high is orderly, reflecting profit-taking after a sharp move. Аverage daily spot volume in April is tracking at $5.6 billion USD, down 60% from the same period last year. However, Glassnode data shows that spot CVD has turned positive on a monthly basis. Six of nine sessions this month have closed with positive daily delta — reversing the net selling that peaked at $199 million USD per day in February. Participation remains cautious, but the flow structure suggests sentiment is improving at the margin. ETF flows capture the dynamic precisely: Wednesday saw $93.9 million in net outflows as institutions took profits, but Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT recorded $30.6 million in inflows on its debut — a signal that new distribution channels are opening. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum fell 3% to around $2,176, with XRP down 3.8%, while SOL declined 2.4%. Beneath the price action, the structural case for ETH continues to build: stablecoins on the Ethereum network have reached an all-time high of $180 billion — up 150% over three years, with Ethereum holding 60% of total stablecoin supply. Macro & Institutional Oil's partial rebound to $97 captures the market's read on the ceasefire: something has changed, but not enough to price a full normalisation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Iran has halted tanker traffic despite initial signals of openness, and EIA data showed US crude stockpiles rising to their highest level in nearly three years. The full unwind of the energy shock will take time even if diplomacy progresses. Gold at $4,730 is holding well — Friday's US CPI is the real test, with markets bracing for an energy-driven uptick in headline inflation. The Fed minutes released Wednesday confirmed policymakers are increasingly concerned about the oil shock's inflationary pass-through — a hawkish undercurrent that tempers the rate-cut repricing from earlier in the week. The Wall Street session closed strongly Wednesday — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Dow up 2.9% for its best day in a year, but futures are pointing modestly lower as the ceasefire's durability is questioned. The S&P 500 faces meaningful resistance at 6,900–7,000, a level it was already struggling with before the conflict began. Looking Ahead Today's Core PCE, Q4 GDP, and jobless claims are the first comprehensive read on where the US economy stood as the energy shock hit — and the results will frame how markets interpret tomorrow's CPI. A softer CPI combined with progress in Islamabad talks this weekend would set up a genuinely constructive Q2 outlook for crypto. The harder scenario — hot inflation with a stalling ceasefire, would return markets to the higher-for-longer holding pattern that defined March. Iranian negotiators arrive in Islamabad tonight for talks tentatively scheduled for Saturday; what emerges will matter as much as any data print this week. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 8, 2026 Bitcoin above $70,000 as ceasefire resets the macro picture — but the real test is whether it lasts Markets are surging on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan just hours before Trump's hard deadline. Bitcoin has jumped above $71,000, total crypto market cap is just below $2.44 trillion, oil has plunged over 13% back below $100, gold is climbing toward $4,800, and equity futures are up 2.5% -- 3.5% across the board. The probability of at least one Fed rate cut by December has jumped to 43% from 14% a day earlier. This is the most significant macro shift for risk assets since the conflict began. Bitcoin Bitcoin has surged to around $71,800, up 4.7% on the day and briefly touching $72,700 — its highest since March 18. The move is macro-driven, but the onchain setup that was quietly building underneath has made the rally more meaningful than it might otherwise appear. Supply in the $60,000–$70,000 range has grown to 1.85 million BTC since January — nearly 9.3% of circulating supply, a sign of aggressive dip buying that has created a strong demand floor. With only 400,000 BTC sitting between $70,000 and $80,000, the supply is thin overhead, meaning any sustained move above $70,000 could accelerate quickly through a zone of limited resistance. ETF flows are reinforcing the structural case. Monday recorded $471 million in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows — the largest single-day total since February 25, followed by $159 million in outflows on Tuesday, a quick directional reversal that underlines just how sensitive flows remain to headline risk. Wednesday's ceasefire news is likely to swing momentum back positive. The $70,000 level, which has acted as a ceiling for most of the past five weeks, now becomes the key support to defend for the recovery to be taken seriously. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum jumped 6.9% to around $2,250, with XRP up between 3.5% and 5%, Solana adding 6.5%, and Cardano gaining up to 8%. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $64 million in outflows on Tuesday, but the broad-based nature of today's altcoin rally is a positive signal, reflecting genuine risk-on rotation rather than Bitcoin-specific flows. The ETH technical setup that was building last week — moving average crossover, rising open interest, whale accumulation — now has the macro tailwind it was waiting for. If the ceasefire holds and oil continues lower, ETH has the structural setup for a more sustained move. Macro & Institutional The macro picture shifted materially on Wednesday. Oil below $100 directly reverses the stagflation narrative that has defined markets for six weeks and the rate cut probability repricing from 14% to 43% for December captures just how quickly the investment thesis can change when the energy variable moves. The SEC's formal acknowledgement this week of past enforcement overreach in crypto may prove equally significant in the longer run. The US crypto regulatory environment is undergoing its most substantive reset in a decade — and the timing, as institutional capital is beginning to re-engage, could not be better calibrated. Looking Ahead Beyond the geopolitical clock, the data calendar is dense and front-loaded toward the end of the week. Thursday is the most consequential day: Core PCE, Q4 GDP, and initial jobless claims all land simultaneously — a triple release that could materially reprice rate expectations in either direction. Friday closes with German CPI and US CPI, delivering the final inflation read of the week. With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print this week carries asymmetric weight for crypto — a softer read reopens the rate-cut conversation; a hotter one hardens the higher-for-longer narrative further. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 7, 2026 Crypto stays cautious as geopolitics and inflation data set the tone for Q2 Crypto is opening the week on a cautious note. Bitcoin slipped below $69,000 after briefly touching $70,000 on Monday on ceasefire optimism, with the total crypto market cap holding above $2.3 trillion. The backdrop is dominated by a hard deadline: the US has set April 7 at 8pm ET for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on infrastructure. Oil is at $110, the dollar is firm, European stocks are treading water, and equity futures are edging lower. The market is not in panic, but it is not committed either, waiting for the deadline to pass before taking a clearer position. With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print this week carries asymmetric weight for crypto — a softer read reopens the rate-cut conversation; a hotter one hardens the higher-for-longer narrative further. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading near $68,500, down 0.8% on the day after failing to hold above $70,000 — a level that has now rejected price twice this month. The pattern is consistent: optimism on diplomatic signals, a push higher, then a retreat as those signals prove inconclusive. The $68,000 level is now the immediate support; below it, the $65,000–$63,300 zone is where structural buying has previously emerged. The most significant development of the week so far is Monday's ETF flow data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $471 million in inflows — the largest single-day total since February 25. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading near $2,108, down 2% on the day but showing several converging signals worth watching. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $120 million in inflows on Monday — their largest single-day total since mid-March, a meaningful sign of returning institutional interest. On the technical side, the 20 and 50-day moving averages on the 12-hour chart are within striking distance of a bullish crossover. The last time this setup completed, ETH rallied 16%. Open interest has risen to over $10 billion, as whale wallets added approximately 190,000 ETH since April 3, providing spot support beneath the technical setup. The technicals, derivatives, and onchain data are all pointing in the same direction — the question is whether macro gives ETH the room to move. XRP fell 2.4%, Solana and Polygon each declined around 3%, and Cardano slipped more than 4%, with the broader altcoin complex tracking the cautious macro mood. Macro & Institutional The macro picture remains one of careful navigation — a global economy managing an energy shock while markets search for clarity on its duration. Oil is holding at $110 with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, and the IEA has described this as the most severe supply disruption in history. In addition, Fed officials this week used a traffic-light system to frame their outlook: inflation approaching red, labor market yellow, financial stability green. The implication is that the Fed's next move is more likely a hold than a cut, but the path there runs through data that still needs to cooperate. Looking Ahead Beyond the geopolitical clock, the data calendar is dense and front-loaded toward the end of the week. Wednesday brings the 10-year Treasury note auction — a key read on bond market sentiment and yield direction at a moment when inflation expectations are elevated. Thursday is the most consequential day: Core PCE, Q4 GDP, and initial jobless claims all land simultaneously — a triple release that could materially reprice rate expectations in either direction. Friday closes with German CPI and US CPI, delivering the final inflation read of the week. With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print this week carries asymmetric weight for crypto — a softer read reopens the rate-cut conversation; a hotter one hardens the higher-for-longer narrative further. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 6, 2026 Risk assets tick up on ceasefire hopes as Trump's Tuesday deadline looms Bitcoin and altcoins are up over the past 24 hours, as total crypto market cap edged up to $2.4 trillion. It comes on the back of Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators circulating a 45-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and the US on Monday, lifting risk assets. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline by 20 hours to Tuesday at 8pm ET. Brent crude pulled back to $108.54 from around $70 pre-war. The S&P 500 trades near multi-week highs, the 10-year yield at 4.05%, gold firm at $4,880. Markets are maintaining exposure but limiting risk expansion ahead of the deadline and this week's US inflation data. Bitcoin Bitcoin moved up 3% to $69,120 on Monday as traders returning from the Easter weekend covered heavily skewed short positions. Despite the move, Bitcoin remains within its five-week war range of $65,000 to $73,000, more than 45% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080. The range has held for five weeks. A ceasefire deal is the most likely catalyst to break it. Institutional positioning remains intact beneath the short-term noise. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and public company treasuries now hold approximately 12% of total supply, up from 8.7% a year earlier, with two Abu Dhabi sovereign funds holding more than $1 billion in BlackRock's IBIT at year-end. Ark Invest maintains a $761,900 price target by 2030, arguing that 80–95% drawdown cycles are structurally over as institutional participation deepens. Flow stabilisation, not price proximity to prior levels, remains the cleaner signal for renewed momentum. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum trades above $2,100 on Monday, up 3.8% over the past seven days, as ceasefire optimism lifted the broad market. ETF flow data tells a more nuanced story. During the March 2–13 recovery window, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $1.34 billion in net inflows while Ethereum drew only $184 million, less than 14% of Bitcoin's total. Structurally, Ethereum's institutional profile is expanding. BlackRock's staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) launched last month, recording $15.5 million in first-day volume with $107 million in initial assets, passing through staking rewards at a net annual yield of 1.9%–2.2%. Among altcoins, XRP trades near $1.34, up 2.2% over the past 24H. BNB, Solana, and Cardano are modestly higher as well. Macro & Institutional The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk variable. Trump has set a Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, which carries approximately 20% of global oil supply; Iran has rejected the ultimatum. Whether the strait reopens or escalation continues will directly determine how much of Friday's expected CPI jump — headline forecast at 3.4% year-on-year from 2.4% in February, reflects a transitory energy spike or a more persistent pass-through. Rate expectations remain the second-order variable: gold holds near $4,880 reflecting sustained policy uncertainty hedging, and dollar direction remains tied to rate differentials. Looking Ahead Three data points will drive markets this week — FOMC Minutes, Core PCE, and CPI, all centred on whether US disinflation holds under Middle East-driven energy pressure. FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinised for the Fed's tolerance for delayed cuts as supply risk feeds into input costs. Thursday's Core PCE is forecast at 3.0% year-on-year, consistent with the disinflationary trend. But an upside surprise alongside Q4 GDP at 0.7% would leave the Fed caught between slowing growth and sticky prices. Friday's headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.4% from 2.4% in February, driven by energy. The market will look past the headline and into core at 2.7%. Any deviation from consensus sets the US rate path for Q2 and conditions how far the current stabilization in risk assets can extend. - Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 3, 2026 Bitcoin steady near $67,000 as jobs data gives reason for cautious optimism Bitcoin is trading near $67,000, showing a muted reaction to today's US jobs report — itself a constructive sign given the macro significance of the data. Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 in March, well above the 65,000 median estimate, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. Total crypto market cap is holding near $2.3 trillion. With Wall Street closed for Good Friday and liquidity thin across traditional markets, Bitcoin is functioning as one of the few major assets still offering continuous two-way price discovery — Brent crude is at $109, gold near $4,637, the dollar steady, and equity futures muted. The full market response to today's data waits until Monday. Bitcoin Bitcoin is range-bound between $65,800 and $67,400, holding a narrow band that has persisted since early February. The week's narrative played out in both directions: a brief push toward $68,000 on de-escalation hopes mid-week, followed by a reversal once those hopes faded. The 200-week EMA at $68,000 remains the level to reclaim for any meaningful recovery; below $66,000, the $65,000–$63,300 demand zone is the next structural reference. The derivatives picture confirms a market without strong directional conviction. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has declined to 51.28% — its lowest since February. On ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $9 million in inflows on Thursday, a modest but positive read heading into the long weekend. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum edged up 0.4% to around $2,059, with XRP up 0.2% and Solana trading flat. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $71 million in outflows on Thursday — a significant divergence from Bitcoin's positive flow day and a signal that institutional appetite between the two assets remains uneven. The ETH supply tightening story — record staking levels, exchange reserves at 2016 lows, remains structurally intact but needs a sentiment shift before it can reassert itself as a price catalyst. Macro & Institutional Brent is at $109, having swung from $70 pre-disruption to $120 at its peak, back toward $98 mid-week, and now resettled above $100. The energy market is repricing on every signal, and with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the structural supply constraint remains in place. Iran and Oman are reportedly drafting a protocol to manage vessel traffic through the strait — a constructive development that briefly pared oil's gains Thursday, though crude traders appear unconvinced it amounts to a genuine reopening. If the protocol materialises into actual restored flows, it would be the most significant macro catalyst of the quarter for risk assets. Gold is holding near $4,637 after pulling back from a four-session winning streak. Speculative positioning has been flushed, ETF outflows have been contained, and Chinese physical demand remains healthy — leaving the medium-term setup constructive. A structural shift in the gold market appears underway, with a broadening base of investors treating it as a long-term strategic portfolio hedge rather than a tactical trade. The $4,000 level, should it be tested, would likely attract meaningful buying. Looking Ahead Monday's open will be the first chance for markets to formally price the latest jobs data — and Bitcoin will have had three days of uninterrupted price discovery to set the tone. With the NFP absorbed and Wall Street dark, next week's inflation and growth data will set the direction for Q2. Monday brings ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and prices — the first services-sector read for March. Thursday is the key day: Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside Q4 GDP and initial jobless claims — a triple release that could materially reprice rate expectations. Friday closes with CPI. With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print next week carries asymmetric weight for crypto. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 2, 2026 Geopolitics take center stage as crypto awaits its next macro catalyst Geopolitics are again weighing on sentiment. Markets are giving back some of this week's gains — Bitcoin is edging towrds $67,000, down 2% in 24 hours, with total crypto market cap retreating to $2.29 trillion. Wednesday's presidential address signaled a continuation of military operations over the next two to three weeks rather than the wind-down markets had been pricing. US equity futures are down 1%–1.5%, European stocks opened 1.2% lower, Brent crude has surged back above $107, gold has pulled back to $4,637, and the dollar has firmed 0.4%–0.5%. With no structural resolution in sight, every rally remains a trade, not a trend. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell to lows of $66,250 before recovering to around $66,700, down 3% on the day. The address offered no clarity on Hormuz reopening — the single variable markets are pricing above all others, and onchain data confirms a market still in redistribution: supply in loss near 8.4 million BTC, long-term holder capitulation still active, and spot demand only beginning to absorb sell pressure. Bitcoin is not in outright stress, but it is still searching for conviction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $173 million in outflows on Wednesday, snapping the positive momentum that had briefly returned earlier in the week. The 200-week EMA at $68,000 is the level to reclaim; below $66,000, the $65,000–$63,300 demand zone comes back into focus. Moody's issuance of the first-ever credit rating on Bitcoin-backed bonds — a provisional Ba2 on New Hampshire state revenue bonds, is a quietly significant milestone underlining the long-term structural legitimacy building around Bitcoin as a financial asset. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum fell 3.% to around $2,049, with XRP down 3.6%, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each sliding 4%–7%, and Dogecoin off 4.6%. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $7 million in outflows on Wednesday, adding to the broader de-risking move. Near-term price action is entirely macro-driven, with no asset-specific divergence. The ETH supply tightening story — record staking levels, exchange reserves at 2016 lows, remains structurally intact but needs a sentiment shift before it can reassert itself as a price catalyst. Macro & Institutional Brent is back above $107 — a 6.6% single-session surge that unwound Wednesday's entire decline, as the energy market continues to swing sharply on each policy signal. Ryanair has warned of potential jet fuel disruptions to Europe from June, Lufthansa flagged supply tightness in Asia, and Shell is in advanced talks with Venezuela to expand gas development — early signs of a structural energy market realignment already underway. Gold pulled back to $4,637, snapping a four-session winning streak as oil's surge reignited inflation fears. The pullback looks more like a positioning reset than a structural shift — speculative exposure has been largely flushed out, leaving the medium-term setup constructive. Metaplanet acquired 5,075 BTC in Q1 for approximately $405 million, bringing total holdings to 40,177 BTC and cementing its position as the third-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder globally — the accumulation at an average price of $79,900 underscoring that institutional buyers are not waiting for macro clarity before building positions. Looking Ahead Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate are the week's defining print. The labor market is showing signs of softening — job openings at 6.88 million in February, hires rate at its lowest since April 2020. Powell described conditions as a "zero-employment growth equilibrium with a feel of downside risk" and economists expect unemployment to hold at 4.4%, though 4.5% is within range. With Bitcoin between $65,000 and $68,000, Friday's payrolls carry asymmetric weight for crypto heading into the weekend. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 1, 2026 Crypto rises as de-escalation hopes drive Q2 rally Crypto is opening Q2 with a meaningful relief rally. Bitcoin is trading above $68,500, up nearly 2%, with total crypto market cap firming as President Trump said the US could exit the conflict within two to three weeks — even without a formal deal. US equity futures are up 0.5%–0.7%, European stocks surged over 2%, Brent has slipped toward $102, and gold has climbed to $4,719 for a fourth consecutive session of gains. The signal is the clearest yet — but with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Iran still setting conditions, markets are rallying on direction rather than resolution. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading near $68,500, recovering from a Q1 that saw it fall 23.8% — its worst first-quarter performance since 2018. The broader context is constructive: this cycle's drawdown of 46% from the October 2025 all-time high is notably shallower than the 77% peak-to-trough seen in 2022 — a sign of a maturing market with stronger institutional confidence, per Fidelity Digital Assets. Bitcoin is now hovering at the 200-week EMA at $68,000, a level that has served as key support in prior downturns and the most important technical reference heading into Q2. On ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs closed Q1 with $500 million in net outflows — $1.8 billion in the first two months offset by $1.32 billion in March inflows, the first monthly gain since October 2025. Cumulative inflows stand at $56 billion with total AUM of $87.5 billion. Analysts note long-term institutional conviction remains intact — the Q1 move has been more cyclical than fundamental. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum rose to $2,149, with XRP up 2.8%, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each gaining 1%–2.5%, and Dogecoin adding 2.7%. On the ETF front, spot ETH ETFs closed Q1 with $769 million in net outflows — the largest quarterly loss among crypto ETF categories. Solana ETFs were the standout, recording $213 million in consecutive monthly inflows since launching in October 2025 without a single month of outflows. Macro & Institutional Brent has retreated toward $102 from last week's highs near $115, driving the relief across equities and risk assets. Tuesday's data was mixed: consumer confidence beat at 91.8, but JOLTS job openings came in at 6.88 million — below January's 7.24 million and the lowest hiring rate since April 2020. Eurozone CPI rose to 2.5% in March, above the ECB's 2% target, keeping the tightening narrative alive even as energy prices ease. Gold at $4,719 is recovering as the dollar softens, with Goldman Sachs maintaining its $5,400 year-end target and calling current levels a more attractive entry point after speculative positioning fell to the 39th percentile. OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with ChatGPT now at 900 million weekly active users and $2 billion in monthly revenue — a signal of the scale of capital flowing into AI infrastructure and its downstream implications for digital assets. Looking Ahead Bitcoin at the 200-week EMA of $68,000 is the technical line that matters most heading into the rest of the week — a sustained hold reopens the path toward $71,500. Today's data slate is the immediate focus: ADP payrolls, retail sales, and manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and ISM give the first full read on how Q1 closed for the US economy. Thursday brings initial jobless claims before Friday's defining prints — nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate — the most important macro release of the week. A softer labor market combined with continued de-escalation would shift the rates calculus meaningfully in crypto's favor, and with Bitcoin back at a key technical level, the setup into Friday is the most consequential of the quarter so far. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 31, 2026 Digital assets steady as Q2 begins with cautious optimism Digital assets are closing out a turbulent quarter on a constructive note. Total crypto market cap has settled around $2.3 trillion, Bitcoin is holding above $67,000, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped back to positive with $70 million in inflows — a signal that institutional interest remains intact. Spot ETH ETFs added nearly $5 million, a modest but meaningful sign that conviction is broadening. Traditional markets are more mixed: US equity futures are up 0.8% but the S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarter in nearly four years, Brent crude is near $115, gold is recovering modestly to $4,556 after its worst month in 17 years, and the dollar remains firm. The setup heading into Q2 is more constructive for crypto than the quarter-end price action suggests. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed $66,900 on Monday after spending the weekend below that level, shifting the immediate condition from downside acceptance toward early repair. The level has become the week's pivot point — it gave way as support on Friday, held as resistance through multiple weekend rejections, and has now flipped back to tentative support. The next test is $68,000, the top of the active channel and the first meaningful validation point for any recovery. A hold above $66,900 on pullbacks followed by acceptance above $68,000 would reverse the most consequential damage from Friday's breakdown and reopen the route toward $71,500 — the higher boundary that rejected price several times before last week's selloff. Long-term holders added 155,450 BTC over the past 30 days and exchange withdrawals hit 16-month highs, reducing available sell-side. The $65,000–$66,000 zone remains the deeper support where whale bid orders are concentrated. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading above $2,000, set to close March with a near 5% gain — a notable outperformer after six months of persistent losses, and a sign that the supply tightening story is beginning to find an audience. With 33.1% of circulating ETH staked at record levels, exchange reserves at their lowest since 2016, and the validator entry queue holding nearly 2.9 million ETH against an exit queue of just 40,000, the structural setup remains stronger than the price alone suggests. The broader altcoin picture is more mixed to close the quarter. XRP is down 3.9% in March, Solana off 1.3%, and Cardano headed for a 12.6% monthly loss — the worst among major cryptos. Macro & Institutional The dollar is back above 100 on the DXY as the oil shock forces an uncomfortable choice on central banks worldwide. In Japan, hawkish BoJ minutes warning that policy risks falling behind the curve have revived debate around a 50bp hike, with Wednesday's Tankan the next test. The ECB, by contrast, appears reluctant to hike in April, leaving the euro exposed to any further rise in energy prices. On the institutional side, Senators Lummis and Cassidy introduced the Mined in America Act, which would codify Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order into law and create a voluntary certification program for US mining operations. Looking Ahead Q2 opens with Bitcoin at $67,000 and a Fed that, in Powell's own words, sees rates in "a good place to wait and see." Speaking Monday at Harvard, Powell ruled out systemic contagion in private credit and framed the inflation overshoot as largely tariff-driven and transitory – a read that reduces the probability of the hike scenario markets have been pricing. The data calendar will test that view: CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS today, ADP payrolls, Retail sales, and Manufacturing PMIs Wednesday, Jobless claims Thursday, and the week's defining print, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment on Friday. With Bitcoin range-bound between $66,900 and $68,000, the incoming data carries asymmetric weight. Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 26, 2026 Bitcoin slips below $70,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty Bitcoin has slipped just below $70,000 with the total crypto market cap near $2.37 trillion – a resilient showing given that oil has climbed back above $100 and risk appetite has softened across equities and traditional safe havens alike. US equity futures are pointing lower by around 0.8%, with the S&P 500 sitting at 6,591, and gold slipping to $4,441. Crypto is absorbing the macro pressure with more composure than most asset classes, and the structural case for digital assets remains intact even as the near-term backdrop stays choppy. Bitcoin Bitcoin is holding near $70,000, down 1.5% on the day and testing a level that has proven resilient throughout March. A recovery above $70,000 keeps the path toward $72,000 open, with Friday's options expiry creating a natural magnet at $75,000 – and the setup remains more constructive than the headline pullback suggests. Notably, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since energy market disruptions began, underscoring its growing appeal as a macro hedge in an environment where traditional safe havens are struggling. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading below $2,100, down 2% on the day, with XRP off 2.5%, Solana and Cardano each shedding around 3%, and Dogecoin down 4.3%. The moves track Bitcoin's session rather than any asset-specific deterioration – and crucially, the derivatives positioning that drove ETH open interest to August highs earlier this week has not materially unwound, providing a constructive base for when sentiment turns. The altcoin complex has shown it can move quickly when macro conditions allow, and that potential remains firmly in place. Macro & Institutional Oil is back above $100, with Brent near $107, reversing Wednesday's decline as energy supply constraints showed no sign of easing and ceasefire negotiations remained in their early stages. The direct read-through for crypto is via rates: markets are now pricing roughly a 38% chance of a Fed hike by December – a scenario that would reprice risk assets across the board, but one that fades quickly if energy markets normalize. That asymmetry is worth keeping in mind; the macro headwind is real but contingent, not structural. Gold's surrender of all its 2026 gains – down 1.5% to $4,441 tells the same story from a different angle. The metal has struggled not because the safe-haven case has broken down, but because dollar strength and rising yields have dominated in the near term. With central bank buying still intact and long-term support unchanged, the pullback looks more like an entry point in the making than a thesis reversal. A similar logic applies to crypto at current levels. Looking Ahead Whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold $70,000 into Friday's options expiry is the immediate question. Today's initial jobless claims came in at 210,000, marginally below the 211,000 forecast and up from 205,000 the prior week – a modest uptick that signals some softening at the edges of the labor market without raising alarm. For crypto, the read is cautiously constructive: a labor market that is resilient but gently cooling gives the Fed less justification for the rate hike scenario markets have been pricing, shifting the balance of probabilities back toward cuts rather than tightening. Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks this evening, and his tone will be the next data point to watch. Next week picks up with Eurozone CPI, US consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and retail sales – a slate that will offer the clearest read yet on how the energy shock is feeding through to growth and price pressures. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – March 25, 2026 Crypto firms up in wait-and-see mode as a catalyst takes shape Bitcoin is holding above $71,000 and total crypto market cap is edging back toward $2.45 trillion, as fresh hopes of a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East give markets a reason to lean cautiously positive. US equity futures are up around 1%, Brent crude has slipped back below $100 to $97.70 and gold is recovering 1.8% to $4,553. The key question now is whether this momentum holds or follows the pattern of recent weeks – a brief relief rally quickly reversed by fresh developments on the ground. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $71,800, up 1.2% on the day and approaching the $72,000 level for the third time this month. A clean break above it opens the path toward $75,000, where Friday's multibillion-dollar options expiry creates a natural magnet — and the setup is more constructive than previous attempts. The broader derivatives picture supports that read. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has declined for a third straight day toward 53% – a sign that positioning is becoming more measured and the risk premium is gradually fading. Put skews continue to weaken, and with futures open interest stabilizing toward $30 billion, there is real capital behind this move. ETF flows have seen a slight reversal, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $66 million in outflows. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is outperforming on Wednesday, up 1.2% to around $2,172, with ETH futures open interest jumping to its highest level since August alongside positive funding rates pointing to growing demand for longs. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $40 million in outflows, though the derivatives positioning suggests underlying demand remains intact. Solana rose 2.6%, Cardano and Polygon each climbed 3%, and Dogecoin jumped 4.1%. DeFi tokens are among the standout performers, gaining 2.5%–3.5% on the day. The altcoin complex is showing relative strength, and if ETH open interest continues to build, a rotation into majors and DeFi could become the dominant trade as sentiment improves. Macro & Institutional Brent back below $100, down over 6% on the day, is the clearest market signal yet that a potential resolution is being priced. A sustained move lower would force a reassessment of the rates and inflation outlook that has dominated markets for weeks. Gold's recovery to $4,553 reinforces the dynamic: lower oil dampens yields and the dollar, both of which have been the primary headwind for bullion. The ten-session losing streak may be turning. Last week's flash PMI data added urgency to the picture, with the US reading falling to an eleven-month low and the Eurozone flagging stagflation risks — the first hard evidence that the energy shock is feeding through to growth. The longer supply constraints persist, the more that narrative solidifies and the narrower the room for central banks to maneuver. On the institutional side, the Reserve Bank of Australia this week declared tokenization a matter of "how, not if," estimating AU$24 billion in annual efficiency gains from tokenized wholesale markets and announcing a new digital financial market infrastructure sandbox. A regional signal, but consistent with the broader direction: the infrastructure buildout in digital assets continues on its own timeline. Looking Ahead $72,000 remains the line in Bitcoin as the third test of this level is underway, and the outcome will set the tone into the weekend. Friday's options expiry, with max pain pointing to $75,000, adds a structural tailwind if bulls can hold ground. ECB President Lagarde speaks today and is widely expected to sound hawkish given recent inflation forecast revisions – her tone on the rates path will be closely watched. US initial jobless claims follow on Thursday alongside Fed Vice Chair Barr, keeping central bank tone in focus through the close. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.