Exness Asia

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% this week, but the decision itself isn’t the real focus. Markets are far more sensitive to Powell’s tone, especially against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation, slowing growth, and a packed Big Tech earnings cycle. There’s also a growing narrative around a potential leadership shift at the Fed, with investors already speculating whether a more dovish stance could emerge after Powell’s term ends on 15 May. For now, Jerome Powell is likely to maintain a cautious tone, avoiding any clear signal on rate cuts. The takeaway? Markets may remain supported, but even a slightly more hawkish message could quickly shift sentiment. What instruments are you trading this week? Let us in the comments.

Will gold prices (XAUUSD) rise amid a vulnerable geopolitical situation? - Gold prices rose on a weaker dollar, softer oil-driven inflation concerns, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, which boosted safe-haven demand. - Lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and boosted rate-cut expectations, supporting gold prices via lower yields and a softer dollar. - Geopolitical headlines remain a key driver of gold prices, while markets turn to US retail sales, the Fed leadership hearing, and US PMI data, which could shift views on the economy and the dollar. - XAUUSD extended the rebound at a slower pace. The price is hovering around flattening EMAs, suggesting consolidation. However, the higher swings continue to support a bullish continuation bias. - If XAUUSD breaks above 4850, the price may retest the resistance at 5070. - Conversely, failure to break above 4850 may prompt the price to pull back toward the immediate support at 4600. Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Weekly Recap - After the Middle East conflict briefly reached a ceasefire, the deal broke down and the Strait of Hormuz closed again, adding another layer of uncertainty to global energy markets. - Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) closed above 75,000 USD (+3.62%). Ether prices (ETHUSD) strengthened above 2,350 USD (+2.86%). - Gold prices (XAUUSD) soared above 4,830 USD per troy ounce (+1.75%), while silver prices outperformed and approached 81.00 USD per troy ounce (+6.61%). - The US dollar index (DXY) weakened to nearly 98.20 (-0.48%). - Oil prices (USOIL) plunged below 83.50 USD per barrel (-7.58%). - US indices continued recovering, with the tech sector outperforming again by closing 6.12% higher than the previous week. - This week's focus turns to economic activity releases in the US and the UK, alongside the UK inflation data release, which may provide more signals for market participants. Announcements Tue - US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar), US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Wed- UK CPI (YoY) (Mar), US Crude Oil Inventories Thu - US Initial Jobless Claims, US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr), US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Chart: GBPJPY, D1, Bullish After breaking the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, GBPJPY rose and also broke the previous swing high. The price is above diverging bullish EMAs, indicating a potential uptrend extension. If GBPJPY remains above 214.00, the price may rise toward the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension at around 217.37. Conversely, a close below 214.00 may prompt a retest of the EMA21.

Will gold prices (XAUUSD) come under pressure as ceasefire hopes fade? - Gold prices consolidated, digesting negotiation-related news and the US blockade of Hormuz. - Markets remained worried about the oil shock that could prolong inflation and push central banks toward a more hawkish stance. - However, continued gold buying by the PBoC for a 17th straight month suggests structural central bank demand remains supportive. - XAUUSD retreated from recent highs and closed below both EMAs. The unclear market structure indicates potential sideways momentum. - If XAUUSD remains below 4850, the price may continue to consolidate within the 4600-4850 range. - Conversely, breaching above both EMAs and 4850 may prompt the price to surge toward the next resistance at 5070. Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Weekly Recap - Despite earlier optimism over developments in the Middle East conflict, markets remained cautious over the volatility of the dynamics. - Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) closed above 73,000 USD (+8.61%). Ether prices (ETHUSD) outperformed again, closing above 2,280 USD (+10.69%). - Gold prices (XAUUSD) approached 4,750 USD per troy ounce (+1.58%), while silver prices recovered above 75.00 USD per troy ounce (+3.93%). - The US dollar index (DXY) fell below 99.00 (-1.49%). - Oil prices (USOIL) plummeted to nearly 90.00 USD per barrel (-13.18%). - US indices significantly recovered, with the tech sector outperforming by closing 5% higher than the previous week. - Market focus shifts to inflation-related releases in the US (PPI) and EU (CPI), with GDP releases in China and the UK. These releases may guide markets on the economic outlook in the medium term. Announcements Mon - US Existing Home Sales (Mar) Tue - US PPI (MoM) (Mar) Wed - US Crude Oil Inventories Thu - CN GDP (YoY) (1Q), UK GDP (MoM) (Feb), EU CPI (YoY) (Mar), US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr), US Initial Jobless Claims Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Will supply jitters outweigh the ceasefire relief for oil prices (USOIL)? - Oil prices partially recovered, lifted by renewed escalation in the region and the prolonged shutdown of Middle East shipping routes. - With no final agreement in place, Tehran's assertion of control over the shipping routes and President Trump's continued warnings to maintain negotiating leverage continue to drive volatility in oil prices. - Supply-side jitters resurfaced after a major producer flagged a 600k barrels-per-day hit to output capacity from earlier strikes, with a key bypass pipeline also damaged. - After briefly retesting the ascending channel's lower bound, USOIL slightly rebounded toward 93.00. The price stays between both EMAs, indicating a potential sideways movement. - If USOIL breaches above the resistance at 93.00 and EMA21, the price may advance to retest the psychological level at 100.00. - Conversely, remaining below 93.00 may prompt a retest of the support at 84.00. Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Will gold prices (XAUUSD) extend gains amid a softer US dollar? - Gold prices steadied above 4,700 USD per troy ounce, supported by a softer US dollar and easing inflation concerns amid expectations of ceasefire negotiations. - However, recovery remains fragile, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to significantly boost shipping activity, with Tehran reportedly seeking to charge transit fees. - Market focus shifts toward the upcoming diplomatic talks over the weekend, while evolving geopolitical developments may continue to drive market sentiment. - XAUUSD fluctuated around both flattening EMAs, with a lack of clear market structure reinforcing its sideways momentum. - If XAUUSD remains below 4850, the price may consolidate within the 4580-4850 range. - Conversely, breaking above 4850 may fuel a move toward the next psychological resistance at 5000. Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

Chart: ETHUSD, 1D, Bearish ETHUSD briefly retested EMA21 before retreating toward the descending channel's lower bound. Diverging bearish EMAs indicate a potential downtrend extension. If ETHUSD breaches above 2675, the price may advance toward the next resistance at 3270. Conversely, breaking below 2120 and the channel's lower bound may fuel a retreat toward the subsequent support at 1900.

Chart: JP225, 1D, Neutral JP225 consolidates within the 52500-55000 range while hovering around EMA21. The index formed a narrowing channel without a clear structure break, suggesting consolidation. If JP225 closes above the record high and the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 55000, the index may test the 138.2% Fibonacci Extension at around 57500. Conversely, if JP225 returns below EMA21 and 52500, the index may retest the following support at 50000.

Chart: XAGUSD, 1D, Bullish XAGUSD maintains its uptrend and approaches the previous high at 84.00. Diverging bullish EMAs indicate a potential extension of upside momentum. If XAGUSD holds above EMA21, the price may retest the resistance at 84.00. Conversely, if XAGUSD breaks below 70.00, the price may retreat further toward the support at 64.50.

Chart: ETHUSD, 1D, Bullish ETHUSD recovered after forming a broader higher low near 2750. After setting a higher high, the price remains above 3200 while hovering near EMA78, indicating potential for further recovery. If ETHUSD closes above EMA78, the price may retest the resistance at 3650. Alternatively, returning below 3200 may prompt ETHUSD to test EMA21.

Monthly Market Recap - Fed officials remain divided on Dec rate cut with only around 45% market probability now priced in versus near-certainty weeks earlier, keeping the US dollar strong. - Better-than-expected Eurozone economic data continue to support the case for the ECB to maintain rates, supporting the euro. - The BoE's recent communications remain divided, and the upcoming Autumn Budget continues to weigh on the pound. - Political pressure undermines BoJ decisions as Japan's GDP decline supports the case for PM Takaichi's fiscal expansion, pressuring the yen. Price Range (low-high) - Volatility of gold-dollar (XAUUSD) slowed to less than 500 USD per troy ounce, down from over 696 USD last month. - Euro-dollar (EURUSD) also experienced a more muted movement, moving about 200 pips from nearly 280 pips last month. - Pound-dollar (GBPUSD) broadened the volatility, moving over 430 pips, which increased from 288 pips. - US dollar-yen (USDJPY) maintained a wide range of fluctuation of over 500 pips despite falling from over 660 pips. Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly. Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you.

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Gold surged above $3,700, setting new record highs. Risks to the rally include a possible dollar rebound or waning geopolitical tensions, but the uptrend is favored while gold stays above key support levels.

US 500 is near historic levels with a bullish long-term bias but might face short-term consolidation with the RSI moving toward overbought levels, as equities may be short-term overbought and September is historically a weaker month for stocks #US500