BFT Capitals
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Welcome to the community, Let's navigate the financial markets together!
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NFP CLEAN SHEET
A healthy labor market requires atleast 150k jobs per month. However for the first time since post pandemic recovery, the NFP Report shows a modest gain 114k jobs followed by sharp downward revision of over 800k jobs by the BLS signaling further labor market cooling.
Economists and investors anticipate a drop of 0.1 drop in the unemployment rate and a rise in job creation of at least 160k, however even if the data meets or exceeds expectations its impact may be limited as it runs counter to market maker's broader goals.
Market Impact
1. NFP 160k> - Unemployment rate <4.3
If the data comes in stronger than expected, we might see a profit taking across asset classes by the end of today and investors will anticipate fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated.
2. NFP=160K Unemployment rate = 4.2%
If the data meets expectations, they could be reduced volume and volatility leading to a higher probability of ranging markets and messy conditions as the result were already priced in
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We got 3/4 of our news bias today which is excellent congratulations to those who took advantage of it react to this message if you profit from this.🎊🎊
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Upcoming USD events!!
1. For the ADP news am expecting a higher job numbers making a bullish DXY.
2. Initial Jobless claim too a bullish DXY.
3. Service PMI, a bullish DXY.
4. Non manufacturing PMI neutral DXY.
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Good Afternoon!
📉 RISK OFF flows drive FX lower
🇺🇸 USD 🔻after weaker ISM, US yields drop, Beige Book due
🇨🇦 CAD⬆️ lower ahead of BoC mtg
🇪🇺 EUR ⬆️ stronger PPI
🇯🇵 JPY ⬆️ extends gains on risk aversion
🇦🇺 AUD⬆️ GDP in line but still weakest since 1992 (ex-covid)
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Good Afternoon!
🇺🇸USD ⬆️ mostly firmer on risk aversion
🇪🇺EUR 🔻 weak PMIs confirmed
🇯🇵JPY 🚀 BoJ Ueda reiterates rate hike plans
🇨🇦CAD 🔻 ahead of BoC rate cut
🇨🇭CHF ⬆️ weaker CPI, stronger GDP
🇦🇺AUD 🔻weaker current account, stronger housing
🇳🇿NZD 🔻shrugs off stronger trade
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Dm for more inquiries.
383
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US Markets are closed on Monday but its still a BUSY week!
Tues
🇳🇿NZ Trade
🇨🇭SZ CPI & Q2 GDP
🇺🇸US ISM Mfg
Wed
🇦🇺AU Q2 GDP
🇨🇦CA Bank of Canada
🇺🇸US Trade & Beige Book
Thurs
🇦🇺AU Trade
🇪🇺 EZ Retail Sales
🇺🇸US ADP / ISM Svcs
Fri
🇩🇪GE Trade
🇺🇸US NFP
🇨🇦CA Jobs & IVEY
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📍Venue is TWITER SPACE.
🔗Make sure to be following our twitter page👇
https://x.com/bftcapitals?s=21
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⚠️🚨Community call on tomorrow’s Webinar in 15mins here.
Expect some giveaways during the call👀
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🇺🇸 USD ↔️ mixed ahead of PCE/Personal income, spending
🇪🇺 EUR ⬆️ stronger GE jobs report & EZ CPI
🇯🇵 JPY 🔻 weaker retail sales, IP
🇨🇦 CAD ↔️ flat ahead of Q2 GDP
🇦🇺 AUD ↔️ flat despite weaker retail sales
🇳🇿 NZD ⬆️ stronger confidence & bldg permits
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Today's most important event is the PCE Report my call is that PCE will have a down side surprise of 2.2% Beating analysts expectations.
Giving the Fed their justification to launch massive rate cuts to avoid a Recession on the second part of their Dual mandate.
Lastly that the Fed has room to manoeuvre such large cuts due to the August PCE.
if we have the actual greater than the forecast is good for the DXY while less than the forecast is bad for the DXY.
Am overall bearish DXY but let's see as they can revise the data to favour the dollar.
NB: Don't trade the news wait till after the release once you have the data on hand then you know the decision to take. Thank you.
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Good afternoon!
📉 Stock futures heavy, US yields up, Gold consolidates
🇺🇸 USD 🔻 vs all currencies except JPY
🇬🇧 GBP ⬆️ hits 2 year highs
🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ hits 4 month highs, 7 out 8 days of gains
🇯🇵 JPY 🔻 broadly lower on 🔻 service PPI
🇦🇺 AUD 🇳🇿 NZD ⬆️ stronger 🇨🇳 China industrial profits
383
Good afternoon!
📉 Forex market hit by profit taking
🇺🇸 USD ⬆️ rebounds vs. all currencies except JPY & CHF
🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 weaker GE IFO
🇯🇵 JPY ⬆️ higher vs. all major currencies
🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ Mid East tensions drive oil +2%
🇦🇺 AUD 🇳🇿 NZD 🔻 leads declines
