️Macro Alpha Analytics🫆

CIMB RE 🐙™️ Flash update: 13MP - a primer on what to expect - During the mid term review of the 12MP, the government raised total DE allocation by RM15bn, averaging at RM83bn p.a. For Budget 2025, headline DE was RM86bn. - Heading into the 13MP period, we expect overall DE to be sustained at above RM80bn under the 13MP, given the overall increase in wages, input and other associated costs across the construction supply chain. - By extension, the 13MP provides fresh impetus for an untick in public infrastructure spending from 4Q25 onwards, accelerating further in 2026-2027 ahead of the next general elections. - We also anticipate increased DE spent in East Malaysia, where both Sabah and Sarawak are tipped to hold their respective state elections within the next few months. - This corresponds with our in-house projections of over RM300bn worth pipeline infrastructure and development projects that could materialize over the next 2 to 3 years. - Based on our internal checks, some of the key big ticket jobs that are in the offing includes the main terminal building works for Penang International Airport (RM1bn), Penang LRT systems package (RM3bn-RM6bn) & cross-channel link, ECRL Port Klang Spur Link (RM2bn) as well as a clutch of basic infrastructure projects in Sabah and Sarawak. - Sentiment on construction-related stocks has also been bolstered by the government’s recent approval of MRT 3 project, although we expect project implementation to only take shape in 2027. - This is supported by a targeted allocation of RM120bn from six GLIC’s under the GEAR-uP program to boost domestic direct investments over a 5-year period (RM11bn has been mobilized as of 30 June 2025). For instance, IJM recently signed a MoU with Permodalan Negeri Selangor Bhd (PNSB) and SD Guthrie to jointly develop an edu-tech park and food security hub in Carey Island. - To support Malaysia’s climate goals under the National Energy Transmission Roadmap, we expect further policy support on renewable energy projects under the 13MP. To begin with, the government intends to roll out the sixth cycle of the Large Scale Solar (LSS) projects in Peninsular Malaysia (combined capacity: 5.2GW) once projects under the current LSS 5 scheme begins commercial operations in 2026/2027. By the same token, we expect more waste-to-energy projects utilizing advanced technologies to be awarded following the concession agreement signed between Malakoff and the government for the Sg. Udang WTE facility back in June 2025. The development of other RE energy sources such as biomass, hydropower hydrogen and biofuels could also trigger spillover infrastructure opportunities for Malaysian contractors, in our view. - We also expect privately-funded projects to come to the fore under the under the 13MP through the PIKAS 2030 program, as the government ropes in private entities as strategic partners to help ease its funding burden in catalyzing development projects. - This has already commenced with the government’s recent endorsement of the RM1.4bn NPE extension (under IJM), as well as the Laluan Istana Kiara Highway (LIKE) and Kg. Baru Link Expressway (KBL) under Ekovest, which together with the Kapar Link, will cost an estimated RM6.3bn. Meanwhile, tenders for the RM4bn-Kota Madani development - which is spearheaded by Putrajaya Corp - should be called soon with Phase 1 anticipated to start by September 2025. - Similarly, Gamuda is in a strong position to secure RM4bn worth of jobs each under the Ulu Padas and Northern Perak water supply scheme; for which the latter may involve a water concession deal. - On a larger scale, IJM is working with Lim Seong Hai Holdings and PNSB to undertake road connectivity projects under the Integrated Development Region in South Selangor (IDRISS), including three major road links that helps alleviate congestion on the ELITE Highway. This comes amid the government’s plans to extend the West Coast Expressway that connects Banting, Selangor to Gelang Patah in Johor.

20% ➜ 反弹起飞 15% ➜ Limit Up 25% ➜ 市场已消化 超过25% ➜ Limit Down ，跑人

如果最终关税落在 20% 或以下，马股反而有机会反弹。 因为市场早已 price in 最坏的 25% 情况，低于这个水平反而是“利空出尽”的好消息。

🇺🇸🇲🇾 川普与安华通话，关税协议有望达成 7月31日，美国总统特朗普与马来西亚首相安华通了一个关键电话，就在8月1日25%关税生效前夕。 消息人士透露，双方预计将在8月1日前宣布将关税下调至最多20%、甚至低至15%。 马来西亚方面在部分议题上做出让步，包括清真认证程序与稀土供应问题。此通话是由美方临时提出，马来西亚政府高层证实，电话于7月31日早上进行。

Trump and Anwar finally spoke on July 31, just hours before the August 1 tariff deadline. Deal expected to bring down US tariffs on Malaysian goods to 15–20%, with KL conceding on halal and rare earth terms.

美国经济强劲得惊人，连关税也变成“提款机”，把大量资金带回本土。通胀虽有回升迹象，但依旧可控，原本预期的“三次降息”现在看起来悬了，连9月降息的概率都在不断下滑。说到底，美经济就是太猛，若真降息，只会更猛！

倒数最后一天 ‼️ 白宫表示，若8月1日前无法谈成关税协议，将对相关国家征收更高关税。 最怕的来了，希望大马最多只是被征收25%，如果像巴西一样中招50%，那我们真的是凉凉了。 Mr. Jogger 也沉默几天了 明天，就是命运的分岔口 😶‍🌫🥶

Malaysia secures RM2.9b digital investments from China — Gobind https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/764594

100岁的人生依然精彩： 上星期，孙子家被盗损失 RM1.8mil 这个星期，轮到华哥要他解释财产来源 一不小心，可能连“财富”都要被充公了😮‍💨 Madani Fund 看来有望提前完成目标 ✅

马来西亚最近频频登上国际新闻版面，世界都在谈轮马来西亚，但不是因为成就。

Broad Daylight Kidnapping of Tycoon’s Wife Shows Malaysia’s Dark Side https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-30/macc-witness-pamela-ling-s-kidnapping-shows-malaysia-s-dark-side

「哇靠，真的只剩下大马了」

LUTNICK: US MADE TRADE DEALS WITH CAMBODIA AND THAILAND TODAY

Pestech delays annual report; faces trading suspension if not issued by Aug 7 https://themalaysianreserve.com/2025/07/30/pestech-delays-annual-report-faces-trading-suspension-if-not-issued-by-aug-7/

NOSH 已达 65 亿 😳

📌今天不仅是美马关税谈判的最后期限，Madani 政府也将在今日把第13大马计划（13MP）提交至国会（Dewan Rakyat）审议 据【The Edge】引述七位经济学家的估算，政府预计将在这项五年发展蓝图中，拨出 RM4000亿至RM4500亿 作为发展支出，以刺激内需、应对外部风险，并推动结构性改革、可持续基建及人力资本提升。 经济学者普遍认为，13MP 的重点不仅在于资金规模，更在于如何落实高效执行与制度改革，确保支出转化为实质性增长动能。

不要说 3500 亿美元，以大马现在的财务来看，100亿美元都是问题。

看完所有新闻，目前没有任何关于马来西亚与美国达成关税协议的最新进展。今天（2025 年 7 月 31 日）正是这轮贸易谈判的最后期限。如果明天（2025 年 8 月 1 日）依然无法达成协议，那么从那时起，美国将对马来西亚商品加征 25% 的关税，取消此前的 10% 基准税率，且不累计征税（即不会变成 35%） 目前，影响最大的两个出口领域预计将是： 医疗手套（medical gloves） 家具（furniture） 而 电子与电器（E&E）、制药（pharma） 等行业，目前仍在豁免之列，不在这轮互惠关税的适用范围