Ed Dowd | Edward Dowd

🚨🚨Unexpected uptick in cancers amongst younger ages impacted the financial results for Voya in their Medical Stop loss business in Q3. “Increased claim frequency for 2024 policy year observed across most categories, most notably in cancer diagnoses across younger ages” It’s not seed oils or fruit loops folks. The head of this group 👇 “retried.” Employee Benefits: Voya provides a range of insurance products like stop loss, group life, voluntary employee-paid, and disability insurance to mid-sized and large businesses. Their solution is to raise prices. Y’all are going to be paying more in insurance premiums for this disaster. @EdDowd

The fall of Syria just left a gigantic power vacuum in a country of 22 million citizens. 30k Jihadists cannot control that many people. How does this Gordian Knot solve itself…unfortunately through chaos, conflict & violence. Players with different motivations: ✅UK, US & Israel ✅Russia, Iraq & Iran ✅HTS Jihadists ✅Turkey ✅Arab League ✅Syrians & Lebanese This development was a tectonic shift in recent world events. @EdDowd

🚨🚨The dispersion between the QCEW and NFP hit a record to the downside of approximately -1.25% as of June 2024 (~1.25 million jobs.) Said differently the NFP estimates had 1.25 million more jobs than the lag QCEW which is way closer to reality. The Non Farm Payroll and the Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages are put out by Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over time there are differences but should average close to zero. NFP is the realtime monthly estimate and the other is the reality after the data has come in. Eyeballing this it’s a 3 standard deviation minimum likely more. 3 possibilities…gross bureaucratic incompetence, fraud or a combination of the 2. Buckle up people…reality will be brutal to the capital markets. @EdDowd

Had dinner at a friend’s house last night. Met a FEMA employee who said corruption is a problem but the big money is in the contracts awarded to outside vendors. He said DOGE would be better served looking there for big savings across agencies instead of just rank and file headcount. Maybe DOGE already knows this but just one insider’s observations. @EdDowd

Federal Reserve is expected to cut the discount rate another 25 bp next week. 3 month T bills are 35 bp ahead in anticipation. Should that widen another 15 bp before FMOC rating on the 17th then 50 bp cut could be in play. @EdDowd

The CEO of Eli Lilly is going to fight to protect current FDA and challenge ⁦@RobertFKennedyJr⁩ ‘s stance. This CEO obviously doesn’t know how to read a room. @EdDowd

Most people just want to be left alone raise a family perhaps and pursue happiness. The 4th branch of government instead insists on control and harvesting from the above. Parasites at this point. @EdDowd

For those that that haven’t figured this out yet aren’t going to make it. @EdDowd

The bond market today likes the Bessent Treasury pick. Why?…because it knows the reversal of the Yellen/Biden juice will cause short term economic and financial asset pain. Trump’s policies will take time before they stimulate economy. This needs to be messaged well by the Trump Administration and avoid measuring success by the stock market. @EdDowd

Not comforting. Two undersea internet cables connecting Finland and Sweden to Europe have been cut — EU leaders suspect sabotage | Tom's Hardware https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/two-undersea-internet-cables-connecting-finland-and-sweden-to-europe-have-been-cut-eu-leaders-suspect-sabotage @EdDowd

Comforting…not Sweden, Finland and Norway release new advice on surviving war - BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr4zwj2lgdo @EdDowd

Germany planning for WW3 with 1,000-page secret doc ‘Operation Deutschland’ along with 800k NATO troops & 200k vehicles https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31806520/germany-world-war-three-secret-doc-nato/ @EdDowd

White-Collar Recession: Worst-Hit Jobs Are in the Tech Industry - Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/white-collar-recession-hiring-slump-jobs-tech-industry-applications-rejection-2024-11 @EdDowd

Basically he says maybe a little higher but close to top. Hedge funds follow him. “Tom DeMark says the stock market is nearing a top as he draws 1929 parallels - MarketWatch” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tom-demark-says-the-stock-market-is-nearing-a-top-as-he-draws-1929-parallels-5d05153b @EdDowd

Is the economy still headed to a collapse now that Trump will have a second term? @EdDowd discusses the potential for course corrections offered under the incoming Trump administration. @EdDowd

Can you sense it? I can. There are many industries who would rather not talk about it and want it to go away. They mandated it. The S&P 500 is responsible for 2/3 of GDP as of 2023 ($18 Trillion). Will the new administration dare touch this? We wait and watch. @EdDowd

The American people have spoken. Great! However the bureaucracy was not voted out. The mindset, agendas and money to implement it is still there. These people are like tics and view the new administration as summer help. Much work to be done! @EdDowd

Mental health professionals rejoicing 🤑 @EdDowd

Best of Leftist Trump Victory Meltdowns @AlexJones